Tag Archives: Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Kenanga Intensifies Into Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Kenanga intensified into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Tuesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kenanga was located at latitude 15.9°S and longitude 82.6°E which put it about 920 miles (1485 km) southeast of Diego Garcia.  Kenanga was moving toward the southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Kenanga intensified quickly into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Tuesday.  A large circular eye with a diameter of 50 miles (80 km) formed at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Kenanga.  Storms around the core of Kenanga were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the west and north of the tropical cyclone.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 200 miles (320 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Kenanga may be near its peak intensity.  Kenanga is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C, but it will start to move over slightly cooler water during the next day or two.  Tropical Cyclone Kenanga is in an area where the upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  However, Kenanga will move closer to upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes later this week and the vertical wind shear will increase.  Tropical Cyclone Kenanga could maintain its intensity or weaken slowly during the next day or so.  Kenanga could weaken more quickly later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Kenanga will move south of a subtropical ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The ridge will continue to steer Kenanga toward the southwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Kenanga will pass well to the south of Diego Garcia.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone 07S developed north-northeast of Mauritius.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 07S was located at latitude 10.9°S and longitude 60.8°E which put it about 690 miles (1115 km) north-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  It was moving toward the south-southwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb

Tropical Cyclone Phethai Brings Wind and Rain to India

Tropical Cyclone Phethai brought wind and rain to parts of eastern India on Sunday night.  The center of Phethai made landfall southwest of Visakhapatnam, India near the Mouths of the Godavari.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Phethai was located at latitude 15.7°N and longitude 82.4°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) southwest of Visakhapatnam.  Phethai was moving toward the north at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 55 m.p.h. (90 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Phethai strengthened earlier on Sunday, but it started to weaken slightly when it approached the east coast of India.  Phethai moved over slightly cooler water as it moved farther north over the western Bay of Bengal.  Tropical Cyclone Phethai moved closer to upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes and the vertical wind shear increased.  Cooler water and more wind shear caused Phethai to start to weaken when it approached the coast.

Even though Tropical Cyclone Phethai started to weaken when it approached the coast of India, the circulation remained well organized.  There was a distinct center of circulation.  Stronger thunderstorms were occurring just to the west of the center.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms were located north and east of the center of Tropical Cyclone Phethai.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 140 miles (225 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Phethai is moving around the western end of a ridge of high pressure over southeast Asia.  The ridge will steer Phethai in a north-northeasterly direction.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Phethai will move over eastern Andhra Pradesh and southern Orissa.  Phethai will drop locally heavy rain as it moves inland and flash flooding could occur in some locations.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Kenanga strengthened over the South Indian Ocean.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kenanga was located at latitude 12.7°S and longitude 83.7°E which put it about 1095 miles (1770 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Kenanga was moving toward the southwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gaja Forms Over Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone Gaja formed over the Bay of Bengal on Sunday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gaja was located at latitude 12.9°N and longitude 86.7°E which put it about 500 miles (805 km) east of Chennai, India.  Gaja was moving toward the west-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

An area of low pressure moving over the Bay of Bengal strengthened on Sunday and the India Meteorological Department classified the system as Tropical Cyclone Gaja.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Gaja is still organizing.  There is a distinct low level center of circulation.  A short band of thunderstorms is west and north of the center.  Several other bands of showers and thunderstorms are developing in other parts of Tropical Cyclone Gaja.  One stronger band is east of the center of circulation and another stronger band is southeast of the center.  Storms near the center are beginning to generate upper level divergence which will pump mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Gaja will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours.  Gaja will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move south of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  The winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Gaja will intensify and it could be nearly equivalent to a hurricane/typhoon in two or three days.

The upper level ridge will steer Tropical Cyclone Gaja in a generally west-southwesterly direction.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Gaja will approach the coast of southern India in about 72 hours.  Gaja could be nearly the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon at that time.

Elsewhere, over the South Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Alcide still was moving slowly east of the northern end of Madgascar and Tropical Cyclone Bouchra developed between Diego Garcia and Cocos Island.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alcide was located at latitude 12.3°N and longitude 51.9°E which put it about 170 miles (275 km) east of Antisiranana, Madagascar.  Alcide was moving toward the northwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

At 4:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bouchra was located at latitude 5.4°S and longitude 89.1°E which put it about 700 miles (1130 km) northwest of Cocos Island, Australia.  Bouchra was moving toward the east at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Flamboyan Forms East of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Flamboyan formed over the South Indian Ocean east of Diego Garcia on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Garcia was located at latitude 10.6°S and longitude 89.2°E which put it about 1190 miles (1925 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Flamboyan was moving toward the west-southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation developed inside a large areas of showers and thunderstorms east of Diego Garcia on Saturday and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Flamboyan.  The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Flamboyan organized steadily during the day.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving the core of the circulation.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping away mass from the tropical cyclone in all directions.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Flamboyan will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification during the next day or two.  Flamboyan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It is located under an upper level ridge and the upper level winds are weak.  Flamboyan will move through an area where there is little vertical wind shear.  Warm water and little shear will allow Tropical Cyclone Flamboyan to intensify and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Flamboyan is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge, which is steering the tropical cyclone toward the west-southwest.  Flamboyan will turn more toward the south when it rounds the western end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Flamboyan will move farther away from Cocos Island and it will pass well southeast of Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Cebile Meanders South of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Cebile has meandered south of Diego Garcia throughout this week.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cebile was located at latitude 16.2°S and longitude 75.8°E which put it about 655 miles (1055 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Cebile was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

Although it completed at least one eyewall replacement cycle, Tropical Cyclone Cebile maintains an impressive structure.  There is a circular eye at the center of circulation.  The eye is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds are occurring in that ring of storms.  Several rainbands are revolving around the core of the circulation.  The storms in the core are generating upper level divergence which is pumping mass away.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extend out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 250 miles (400 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Cebile remains in an environment favorable for strong tropical cyclones.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is generally near 28°C.  However, Cebile has moved slowly during the past several days and its circulation may have mixed cooler water to the surface in some locations.  The upper level winds are currently weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Cebile could maintain its intensity for another 24 to 36 hours unless it mixes more cool water to the surface.  An upper level trough approaching from the west will increase the vertical wind shear in a day or two and Cebile could weaken more quickly when that occurs.

Cebile is moving near the western end of a subtropical ridge which has been steering the tropical slowly toward the southwest.  The approaching upper level trough will begin to steer Tropical Cyclone Cebile more toward the southeast in a day or two.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Cebile is forecast to move farther away from Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Cebile Intensifies Rapidly Into Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Cebile intensified rapidly on Sunday from a tropical storm to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cebile was located at latitude 14.5°S and longitude 82.5°E which put it about 850 miles (1375 km) southeast of Diego Garcia.  Cebile was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 945 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Cebile intensified very rapidly during the past 24 hours as it moved through a very favorable environment.  The maximum sustained wind speed increased from 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) to 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h).  The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Cebile is very well organized.  There is a circular eye at the center of circulation.  The eye is surround by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds are occurring in the ring of storms.  Rainbands are revolving around the core of the circulation.  Tropical Cyclone Cebile is generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping away mass and allowing the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Cebile is symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extend out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 150 miles (240 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Cebile is 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 12.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 37.8.

Tropical Cyclone Cebile continues to move through an environment favorable for intensification.  Cebile is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Cebile is likely to intensify further and it could become the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Cebile is moving near the western part of a subtropical ridge which is steering the tropical cyclone toward the southwest.  A general southwesterly motion is expected to continue for the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Cebile will remain well south of Diego Garcia.

Elsewhere in the tropics, Tropical Cyclone 08S was moving near the northern end of New Caledonia.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone 08S was located at latitude 18.8°S and longitude 162.1°E which put it about 370 miles (600 km) northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia.  It was moving toward the southeast at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Cebile Forms East of Diego Garcia

After a relatively quiet week in the tropics Tropical Cyclone Cebile formed east of Diego Garcia on Saturday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cebile was located at latitude 12.1°S and longitude 84.2°E which put it about 870 miles (1405 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Cebile was moving toward the southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Cebile organized rapidly on Saturday.  A primary rainband wrapped most of the way around the center of circulation and an elliptical eye appeared to be developing at the center.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Cebile.  There were more thunderstorms in the western half of the circulation, but there were rainbands in all quadrants of Cebile.  Storms in the core of the circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease and the wind speed to increase.

Tropical Cyclone Cebile will move through an environment favorable for intensification.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  Cebile is moving just to the north of the axis of a subtropical ridge that runs east to west across the Southern Indian Ocean.  The northern half of the ridge is producing easterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation, but the vertical wind shear is not too strong.  A combination of warm water and minimal vertical wind shear will allow Tropical Cyclone Cebile to strengthen and it could intensify rapidly.  Cebile is likely to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next day or two.  Tropical Cyclone Cebile could intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next week.

The subtropical ridge is steering Tropical Cyclone Cebile toward the southwest and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Cebile is expected to move southeast of Diego Garcia.

Tropical Low Forms Over Western Australia

A Tropical Low formed over Western Australia on Monday and a Tropical Cyclone Watch was issued for a portion of the coast.  At 2:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 15.9°S and longitude 126.1°E which put it about 135 miles (220 km) west-southwest of Wyndham, Australia.  It was moving toward the southwest a 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 20 m.p.h. (30 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (85 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.  The Australia Bureau of Meteorology has issued a Tropical Cyclone Watch for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Kuri Bay to Wallal Downs including Broome.

The circulation of the Tropical Low is still organizing.  There is a broad low level center of circulation, but there are not many showers and thunderstorms near the center.  There are numerous bands of showers and storms developing in bands on the eastern and western peripheries of the circulation.  The strongest wind gusts are occurring in those storms.  The lack of storms near the center of circulation is keeping the system from generating much upper level divergence.

The core of the Tropical Low is likely to remain over land for another 12-24 hours, which will inhibit the organization of the circulation.  When the center moves off the coast and over the South Indian Ocean, it will move into an environment favorable for intensification.  The Sea Surface Temperature of the water west of the coast of Western Australia is near 30°C.  The Tropical Low is moving north of the axis of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge is producing easterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation, but there is not a lot of vertical wind shear.  The Tropical Low is likely to strengthen when it moves over water and it could intensify rapidly if a more concentrated center of circulation develops.

A subtropical ridge is current steering the Tropical Low toward the southwest, but a general motion toward the west-southwest is expected during the next 24 to 48 hours.  The Tropical Low will reach the western end of the ridge in about two days and then it will turn more toward the south.  On its anticipated track the center of the Tropical Low is expected to move off the coast between Kuri Bay and Derby on Tuesday.  The center is forecast to pass near Cape Leveque and then turn south toward Wallal Downs.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Ava continued to swirl near southern Madagascar and stronger Tropical Cyclone Irving was passing well to the south of Diego Garcia.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Ava was located at latitude 27.7°S and longitude 46.8°E which put it about 180 miles (295 km) south of Farodofay, Madagascar.  Ava was moving toward the west-southwest at 17 m.p.h. (27 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Irving was centered at latitude 19.6°S and longitude 76.1°E which put it about 875 miles (1415 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Irving was moving toward the west-southwest at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.  Tropical Cyclone Irving was the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Tropical Cyclone Ava Drops Heavy Rain on Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Ava dropped heavy rain over Madagascar on Saturday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ava was located at latitude 21.4°S and longitude 48.2°E which put it about 70 miles (110 km) north-northwest of Mananjary, Madagascar.  Ava was moving toward the south-southeast at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Ava weakened into the equivalent of a tropical storm during the day it spent moving over Madagascar.  The strongest winds were occurring in bands of thunderstorms over the water.  The center made landfall on Friday near Toamasina.  The center then passed near Moramanga, Anosibe An’ala, and Marolambo.  There is still a distinct center of circulation and several bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the center.  Some of the storms dropped heavy rain over parts of Madagascar.  There was stronger rising motion in places where the winds blew up the sides of mountains and the rainfall was heavier in those locations.  The potential for flooding exists in places that received heavy rain.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Ava is likely to move back over the water of the South Indian Ocean during the next few hours.  Tropical Cyclone Ava will move into an environment that is favorable for intensification when it moves back over water.  The Sea Surface Temperature of the water east of Madagascar is near 28°C.  Ava is moving under the axis of an upper level ridge and the upper level winds are relatively weak.  So, there is not a lot of vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Ava is likely to strengthen once the center moves back over water.

Tropical Cyclone Ava is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering Ava toward the south-southeast.  The ridge is forecast to steer Tropical Cyclone Ava toward the south for another day or two.  When Tropical Cyclone Ava moves farther to the south in about 48 hours, an upper level trough will cause northwesterly winds, which will start to steer the tropical cyclone toward the east-southeast.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Ava is expected to move off the coast of Madagascar near Mananjary in a few hours.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Irving was strengthening east-southeast of Diego Garcia.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Irving was located at latitude 13.3°S and longitude 87.5°E which put it about 1145 miles (1845 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Irving was moving toward the west-southwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

Satellite imagery suggested that Tropical Cyclone Irving could be strengthening rapidly.  A primary rainband was wrapping around the center of circulation.  An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Irving.  Tropical Cyclone Irving will move through an environment favorable for intensification.  Irving is likely to intensify into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon while it passes well to the south of Diego Garcia during the next several days.

Tropical Cyclone Fantala Gets Bigger and Stronger

Tropical Cyclone Fantala grew in size and intensity on Wednesday.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fantala was located at latitude 12.7°N and longitude 64.2°E which put it about 700 miles (1130 km) northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Fantala was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 17.8, the Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 32.4.

Both the organization and size of the circulation of Fantala increased on Wednesday.  A complete eyewall formed around an eye at the center of the tropical cyclone.  Other well formed bands of thunderstorms developed and wrapped around the core of Fantala.  The structure of the tropical cyclone is much more symmetrical and there are thunderstorms in all quadrants of the circulation.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Thunderstorms around the core of Fantala generated upper level divergence which pumped out mass and allowed the surface pressure to decrease.

Tropical Cyclone Fantala is an environment favorable for further intensification.  Fantala is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are light and there is very little vertical wind shear.  The structure of Fantala will allow it to use the energy from the ocean very efficiently.  Fantala is likely to continue to intensify on Thursday and it could become the equivalent of a major hurricane.  As Fantala gets stronger, concentric eyewalls could develop and the resulting eyewall replacement cycles could produce fluctuations in intensity.

A subtropical ridge located to the south of Fantala is steering it toward the west and that general steering motion is expected to continue during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Fantala will pass north of Mauritus and La Reunion during the weekend.  Tropical Cyclone Fantala could be near northern Madagascar in a few days.