Tropical Depression 12E Forms Near Mexico’s West Coast

Tropical Depression Twelve-E formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean near the west coast of Mexico on Monday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Twelve-E was located at latitude 17.2°N and longitude 105.4°W which put the center about 145 miles (230 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Tropical Depression Twelve-E was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean strengthened on Monday evening and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Twelve-E.

The circulation around Tropical Depression Twelve-E exhibited more organization on Monday evening.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of the tropical depression.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Depression Twelve-E.  Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Twelve-E will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical depression.  The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east.  So, there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Depression Twelve-E will intensify to a tropical storm on Tuesday.

Tropical Depression Twelve-E will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Twelve-E will move toward Baja California.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Kiko intensified on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 127.3°W which put the center about 1880 miles (3025 km) east Hilo Hawaii.  Kiko was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Storm Kiko Forms Over the Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Storm Kiko formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean between Mexico and Hawaii on Sunday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located at latitude 14.4°N and longitude 123.1°W which put the center about 1045 miles (1680 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Kiko was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean between Mexico and Hawaii strengthened on Sunday morning and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Kiko.

Tropical Storm Kiko exhibited more organization on Sunday morning.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Kiko’s circulation.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands in the western side of Tropical Storm Kiko.  Bands in the eastern side of Kiko’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Kiko began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Kiko was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles in the northern side of Kiko’s circulation.  The winds in the southern side of Tropical Storm Kiko were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Kiko will move through an environment favorable for intensification.  Kiko will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Kiko’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Kiko will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Kiko could strengthen to a hurricane in a couple of days.

Tropical Storm Kiko will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Kiko toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Kiko will move toward the Central Pacific Ocean.

Tropical Storm Juliette Weakens

Tropical Storm Juliette weakened as it moved west of Baja California on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was located at latitude 23.9°N and longitude 120.2°W which put the center about 655 miles (1055 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  Juliette was moving toward the north-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A combination of cooler water and stronger vertical wind shear caused Tropical Storm Juliette to weaken on Wednesday.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the northeastern part of Juliette’s circulation.  Bands in the other parts of Tropical Storm Juliette consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Juliette was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Juliette’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Juliette will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Juliette will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 22°C.  It will move under the eastern part of an upper level trough that is west of Baja California.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Juliette’s circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear.  The combination of cool Sea Surface Temperatures and strong vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Juliette to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough west of Baja California will steer Tropical Storm Juliette toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Juliette will remain far to the west of Baja California.

Tropical Storm Fernand Moves East

Tropical Storm Fernand moved east over the North Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was located at latitude 39.3°N and longitude 47.4°W which put the center about 585 miles (945 km) south-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland.  Fernand was moving toward the east-northeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Many of the thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Fernand dissipated on Wednesday as Fernand moved over cooler water.  The circulation around Fernand consisted primarily of bands of showers and lower clouds.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Tropical Storm Fernand.

Tropical Storm Fernand will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification of a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.  Fernand will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 22°C.  An upper level wind trough east of Canada will produce southwesterly winds that will blow across the top of Fernand’s circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear.  The combination of cool water and strong vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Fernand to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Fernand will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fernand toward the east-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Fernand will move southeast of Newfoundland on Thursday.

Tropical Storm Juliette Moves Southwest of Baja California

Tropical Storm Juliette moved southwest of Baja California on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was located at latitude 19.9°N and longitude 117.2°W which put the center about 515 miles (825 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Juliette was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Tropical Storm Juliette intensified on Tuesday as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Juliette’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Storm Juliette.  Bands in the northern side of Juliette’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Juliette generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and west of the tropical storm.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Juliette was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Juliette’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Juliette will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Juliette will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Juliette’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The combination of cooler Sea Surface Temperatures and moderate vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Juliette to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Juliette will move around the western end of a high pressure system over northwestern Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Juliette toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Juliette will remain far to the west of Baja California.

Tropical Storm Fernand Passes Far South of Newfoundland

Tropical Storm Fernand passed far to the south of Newfoundland on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was located at latitude 38.1°N and longitude 53.4°W which put the center about 595 miles (955 km) south of Cape Race, Newfoundland.  Fernand was moving toward the northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Tropical Storm Fernand weakened on Tuesday as it passed far to the south of Newfoundland.  Fernand continued to move under the southeastern side of an upper level ridge over the North Atlantic.  The upper level ridge produced northerly winds that blew across the top of Fernand’s circulation.  Those winds caused moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Fernand to remain asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern part of Fernand’s circulation.  Bands in the northern part of Tropical Storm Fernand consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Storm Fernand was asymmetrical.   Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the eastern side of Fernand’s circulation.  The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Fernand were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Fernand will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification of a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.  Fernand will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25°C.  The upper level wind ridge over the North Atlantic will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The combination of cooler water and vertical wind shear will prevent Tropical Storm Fernand from intensifying during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Fernand will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fernand toward the east-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Fernand will remain far to the southeast of Newfoundland on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Fernand Starts to Weaken

Tropical Storm Fernand started to weaken on Monday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was located at latitude 36.1°N and longitude 56.3°W which put the center about 550 miles (890 km) east-northeast of Bermuda.  Fernand was moving toward the northeast at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. 1095 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Fernanda started to weaken on Monday evening as it moved over the Atlantic Ocean east-northeast of Bermuda.  Fernand moved under the southeastern part of an upper level ridge over the North Atlantic.  The upper level ridge produced northerly winds that blew across the top of Fernand’s circulation.  Those winds caused moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Fernand to become asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southeastern part of Fernand’s circulation.  Bands in the other parts of Tropical Storm Fernand consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Fernand was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Fernand’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Fernand will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fernand will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  However, the upper level wind ridge over the North Atlantic will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Fernand to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Fernand will move around the northwestern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fernand toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Fernand will pass well to the south of Newfoundland on Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Juliette Forms South of Baja California

Tropical Storm Juliette formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California early on Monday.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Julliette was located at latitude 16.8°N and longitude 111.8°W which put the center about 440 miles (770 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Juliette was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California strengthened early on Monday and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Juliette.

More thunderstorms were developing near the center of Tropical Storm Juliette on Monday morning.  Thunderstorms were also forming in bands revolving around the center of Juliette’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Juliette began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Tropical Storm Juliette.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) in the northern side of Juliette’s circulation.  The winds in the southern side of Tropical Storm Juliette were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Juliette will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Juliette will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge centered over Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Juliette’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but he wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Juliette will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Juliette will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Juliette toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Juliette will move southwest of Baja California.

 

Typhoon Kajiki Hits Northern Vietnam

Typhoon Kajiki hit the coast of northern Vietnam near Vinh early on Monday.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Kajiki was located at latitude 18.6°N and longitude 105.7°E which put the center about 10 miles (15 km) southeast of Vinh, Vietnam.  Kajiki was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

The center of Typhoon Kajiki hit the coast of northern Vietnam near Vinh early on Monday.  The circulation around Typhoon Kajiki was relatively small.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km/h) from the center of Kajiki’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Typhoon Kajiki.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Kajiki is 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 11.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 29.7.  Typhoon Kajiki is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sally when Sally hit South Alabama in 2020.

Typhoon Kajiki will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over China.  The high pressure system will steer Kajiki toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Kajiki will move inland over northern Vietnam.  Kajiki will move over northern Laos in 12 to 18 hours.

Typhoon Kajiki will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to northern Vietnam.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Kajiki will weaken steadily as it moves inland, but it could also drop heavy rain over parts of northern Laos and northern Thailand.

Tropical Storm Fernand Passes East of Bermuda

Tropical Storm Fernand passed east of Bermuda on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was located at latitude 31.8°N and longitude 59.8°W which put the center about 295 miles (475 km) east of Bermuda.  Fernand was moving toward the north-northeast at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

Tropical Storm Fernand strengthened gradually on Sunday as it passed east of Bermuda.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of Fernand’s circulation.  More thunderstorms also formed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Fernand.  Storms near the center of Fernand generated upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the tropical storm.

The strongest winds were blowing in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Fernand.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the eastern side of Fernand’s circulation.  The winds in the western side of Fernand were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Fernand will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fernand will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough that is east of the U.S.  The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Fernand’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Fernand will intensify during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough that is east of the U.S. will steer Tropical Storm Fernand toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Fernand move farther away from Bermuda on Monday.