Tag Archives: Baja California

Hurricane Bonnie Churns Southwest of Baja California

Hurricane Bonnie churned over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Thursday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located at latitude 18.1°N and longitude 116.9°W which put it about 560 miles (905 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Bonnie was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Hurricane Bonnie appeared to complete an eyewall replacement cycle on Thursday. The previous small eye and eyewall was replaced by a larger eye. A circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) was present at the center of Bonnie on Thursday night. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Bonnie. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Bonnie was still small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Bonnie. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Bonnie was 13.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 6.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 20.7.

Hurricane Bonnie will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Bonnie will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26˚C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bonnie’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Hurricane Bonnie is likely to weaken during the next 36 hours, as it moves over cooler water.

Hurricane Bonnie will move south of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Bonnie toward the west-northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Bonnie will move farther away from Baja California during the next several days.

Hurricane Bonnie Moves South of Baja California

Hurricane Bonnie moved south of Baja California on Wednesday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located at latitude 16.5°N and longitude 110.1°W which put it about 440 miles (710 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California. Bonnie was moving toward the west-northwest at 11 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

Hurricane Bonnie moved toward the west-northwest over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Wednesday afternoon. A small circular eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) was at the center of Bonnie’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the small eye and eyewall at times, and it appeared that there could be concentric eyewalls. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the small core of Hurricane Bonnie. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Bonnie was still small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of Bonnie. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Bonnie was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 5.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 23.2.

Hurricane Bonnie will move through an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Bonnie will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bonnie’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Hurricane Bonnie is likely to weaken slowly during the next 24 hours, when it moves over slightly cooler water. If concentric eyewalls develop and persist, then an eyewall replacement cyclone could cause Bonnie to weaken more quickly. Since the circulation around Hurricane Bonnie is so small, any change in the environment could have a big impact on the intensity of Bonnie.

Hurricane Bonnie will move south of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Bonnie toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Bonnie will southwest of Baja California during the next several days.

Tropical Storm Celia Passes South of Baja California

Tropical Storm Celia passed south of Baja California on Saturday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Celia was located at latitude 18.5°N and longitude 110.8°W which put it about 310 miles (500 km) south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Celia was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Storm Celia began to be affected by cooler water to its northwest on Saturday. The distribution of thunderstorms around Celia’s circulation was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Tropical Storm Celia, which was still over warmer water. Bands in the western half of Celia, which was over cooler water, consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Celia. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the western side of Celia.

Tropical Storm Celia will move into an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next few days. Celia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are colder than 26˚C. It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Celia’s circulation. Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear. A combination of cooler water and more vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Celia to weaken during the next few days.

Tropical Storm Celia will move south of a high pressure system over northern Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific. The high pressure system will steer Celia toward the west-northwest during the next few days. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Celia will move farther away from Baja California.

Tropical Storm Celia Churns Southwest of Mexico

Tropical Storm Celia churned over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Wednesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Celia was located at latitude 14.2°N and longitude 104.4°W which put it about 330 miles (535 km) south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Celia was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Celia’s circulation. Even though Tropical Storm Celia strengthened a little on Wednesday, the distribution of thunderstorms remained asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western and southern parts of Celia’s circulation. Bands in the eastern and northern parts of Tropical Storm Celia consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. An upper level ridge over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean was producing moderate east-northeasterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Celia’s circulation. Those winds were causing some vertical wind shear and the wind shear was contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Storm Celia will move through an environment that will become more favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Celia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. Although the upper level ridge over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific will continue to produce east-northeasterly winds, those winds will weaken during the next 48 hours. When the upper level winds weaken, the vertical wind shear will diminish. Tropical Storm Celia is likely to intensify during the next 48 hours. Celia could strengthen to a hurricane on Friday.

Tropical Storm Celia will move southwest of a high pressure system over Mexico during the next 48 hours. The high pressure system will steer Celia toward the west-northwest. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Celia will move south of Baja California by Saturday.

Tropical Depression Celia Passes South of Guatemala

Tropical Depression Celia passed south of Guatemala on Sunday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Celia was located at latitude 12.8°N and longitude 92.4°W which put it about 130 miles (210 km) southwest of Puerto San Jose, Guatemala. Celia was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Depression Celia weakened during the weekend. A few thunderstorms formed near the center of Celia, but most of the circulation consisted of bands of showers and lower clouds. An upper level ridge over southeastern Mexico produced easterly winds that blew across the top of Tropical Depression Celia. Those winds caused moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear blew the tops off of many of the thunderstorms that started to develop in Tropical Depression Celia.

Tropical Depression Celia will move through an environment mostly unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Celia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, the upper level ridge over southeastern Mexico will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will prevent intensification during the next day or so. Tropical Depression Celia will move into an area where the upper level winds are weaker early next week. That will cause the vertical wind shear to diminish. Tropical Depression Celia could strengthen when the shear diminishes.

Tropical Depression Celia will move south of a high pressure system over Mexico during the next 48 hours. The high pressure system will to steer Celia toward the west. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Celia will move parallel to the south coast of Mexico.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Blas weakened south of Baja California. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Blas was located at latitude 19.0°N and longitude 113.0°W which put it about 335 miles (540 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Blas was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

Possible Development East-Northeast of Hawaii

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) indicated that a low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean east-northeast of Hawaii could develop into a subtropical or a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. The low pressure system is currently designated as Invest 90E. At 1:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Invest 90E was located at latitude 21.8°N and longitude 136.1°W which put it about 1280 miles (2065 km) east-northeast of Hilo, Hawaii. It was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

The National Hurricane Center issued a Special Tropical Weather Outlook on Thursday afternoon which indicated that a low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean had a 40% probability of development into a subtropical or a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. The low pressure system has been moving slowly toward the west between Baja California and Hawaii. The low pressure system currently has a hybrid structure. A well organized low level center of circulation was evident on visible satellite images. The low level center was located just to the east of a low pressure system in the middle and upper troposphere. The upper low was producing southerly winds that were blowing toward the top of the low level circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear was affecting the structure of the system. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands north and east of the low level center of circulation. Bands south and west of the low level center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Invest 90E will move through an environment somewhat favorable for the formation of a subtropical or a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. The surface center of circulation will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24˚C. Since the upper low contains colder air, that water temperature is warm enough to support the development of a subtropical or a tropical cyclone. The low in the middle and upper troposphere will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit the development of a tropical cyclone. The current hybrid structure of Invest 90E and the marginally warm Sea Surface Temperatures would favor the development of a subtropical cyclone. However, if the strength of the upper level winds decreases, then a tropical cyclone could form.

Invest 90E will move south of a surface high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the low level center of circulation toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Invest 90E will move slowly toward the Central Pacific Ocean.

Pamela Strengthens to a Hurricane Southwest of Mazatlan

Former Tropical Storm Pamela strengthened to a hurricane southwest of Mazatlan, Mexico on Tuesday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Pamela was located at latitude 19.9°N and longitude 109.0°W which put it about 280 miles (455 km) southwest of Mazatlan, Mexico. Pamela was moving toward the north at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Mazatlan. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Altata to Bahia Tempehuaya, Mexico and from Escuinapa to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast of Baja California from Cabo San Lucas to Los Barilles.

Former Tropical Storm Pamela strengthened to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mazatlan on Tuesday morning. More thunderstorms developed near the center of Hurricane Pamela. Those thunderstorms generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Pamela. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) on the east side of Pamela. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Pamela will move through a region where the environment is somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Pamela will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the the southern part of an upper level trough over the western U.S. The trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Hurricane Pamela’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent Pamela from getting stronger.

Hurricane Pamela will move around the western part of a high pressure system over Mexico during the next few hours. The high pressure system will steer Pamela toward the north during that time period. The upper level trough over the western U.S. will turn Pamela toward the northeast in a few hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Pamela will approach the west coast of Mexico early on Wednesday morning. Pamela will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the section of the coast near Mazatlan. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in parts of Sinaloa and Durango. The remnants of Pamela’s circulation could contribute to rainfall over Texas later this week,

Tropical Storm Pamela Intensifies, Hurricane Watch for Mexico

Tropical Storm Pamela intensified over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Monday morning and the government of Mexico issued a Hurricane Watch for a portion of the west coast. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Pamela was located at latitude 16.8°N and longitude 108.1°W which put it about 455 miles (735 km) south-southwest of Mazatlan, Mexico. Pamela was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa, Mexico. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the portions of the coast from Altata to Bahia Tempehuaya and from Escuinapa to San Blas. A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast of Baja California from Los Barilles to Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Pamela intensified more rapidly on Monday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped tightly around the southern and eastern sides of the center of Pamela. Storms near the center of circulation generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease more quickly. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Storm Pamela. The circulation around Pamela was relatively small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Pamela will move through a region where the environment is favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Pamela will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Pamela could strengthen to a hurricane during the next 12 hours. Pamela could intensify rapidly once an inner core with an eye and eyewall forms. Pamela could rapidly intensify to a major hurricane by Tuesday night.

Tropical Storm Pamela will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Pamela toward the north-northwest during that time period. An upper level trough over the western U.S. will turn Pamela toward the northeast on Tuesday. On its anticipated track Pamela could be south of Baja California on Tuesday evening. Pamela could be a major hurricane when it approaches the west coast of Mexico on Wednesday morning.

Tropical Storm Pamela Forms South of Mexico

Tropical Storm Pamela formed south of Mexico on Sunday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Pamela was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 105.9°W which put it about 265 miles (425 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Pamela was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A low pressure system south of Mexico strengthened on Sunday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Pamela. The circulation around Tropical Storm Pamela was gradually becoming more organized. A band of showers and thunderstorms was wrapping around the western and southern sides of the center of Pamela. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Pamela. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Pamela’s circulation. The winds in the other parts of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Pamela will move through a region where the environment is favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Pamela will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Pamela will intensify during the next 36 hours. It could strengthen to a hurricane by Monday night.

Tropical Storm Pamela will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico during the next 36 hours. The high pressure system will steer Pamela toward the northwest during that time period. An upper level trough over the western U.S. will turn Pamela toward the northeast later on Tuesday. On its anticipated track Pamela could be south of Baja California on Tuesday night. Pamela is likely to be a hurricane when it approaches the west coast of Mexico on Wednesday afternoon.

Hurricane Olaf Makes Landfall on Southern Tip of Baja California

Hurricane Olaf made landfall on southern tip of Baja California on Thursday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Olaf was located at latitude 23.0°N and longitude 109.6°W which put it about 20 miles (30 km) east-northeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Olaf was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

A Hurricane Warning Was in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Cabo San Lucas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito, Mexico and from Los Barriles to Loreto, Mexico.

The eye of Hurricane Olaf made landfall on the southern tip of Baja California near San Jose del Cabo on Thursday night. Olaf continued to intensify right up until the center moved ashore. Hurricane Olaf strengthened to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale prior to landfall. Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Olaf. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Olaf was 16.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 27.0

Hurricane Olaf was capable of causing regional serious damage. Olaf will produce strong winds over the southern part of Baja California. Wind damage could cause widespread power outages. Hurricane Olaf will also drop heavy rain over the region and flash floods are likely to occur. Hurricane Olaf will move northwest over Baja California during the next 24 hours. Mountains will begin to disrupt the circulation and Olaf will weaken. The area of heavy rain will move northward, as will the risk for flash floods.