Tag Archives: Philippines

Typhoon Fengshen Strengthens into Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Typhoon Fengshen strengthened into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Typhoon Fengshen was located at latitude 23.0°N and longitude 142.9°E which put it about 175 miles (285 km) south-southeast of Io To.  Fengshen was moving toward the north at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

Typhoon Fengshen strengthened quickly into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Friday.  An eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) developed at the center of Fengshen.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Fengshen.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the northeast of the typhoon.

The circulation around Typhoon Fengshen increased in size on Friday.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225) km from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Fengshen was 23.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.8.

Typhoon Fengshen may have reached its peak intensity.  Fengshen will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  So, there will be suffiicient energy in the upper levels of the Western Pacific to support intensification.  However, a large upper level trough southwest of Japan will move toward Fengshen.  The trough will produce strong southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the typhoon.  Those winds will cause moderate to strong vertical wind shear and the shear will cause Typhoon Fengshen to being to weaken.

A ridge of high pressure east of Typhoon Fengshen and the upper level trough southwest of Japan will interact to steer the typhoon toward the northeast during the weekend.  On its anticipated track the core of Typhoon Fengshen which contains the strongest winds will pass southeast of Iwo To.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Kalmaegi moved very slowly toward northern Luzon.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Kalmaegi was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 125.9°E which put it about 345 miles (555 km) southeast of Aparri, Philippines.  Kalmaegi was moving toward the west at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Typhoon Fengshen Brings Wind and Rain to Northern Marianas

Typhoon Fengshen brought wind and rain to the Northern Marianas on Thursday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Typhoon Fengshen was located at latitude 19.6°N and longitude 143.3°E which put it about 385 miles (620 km) south-southeast of Iwo To.  Fengshen was moving toward the northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

Typhoon Fengshen intensified rapidly into a typhoon on Thursday as it moved over the Northern Marianas.  Fengshen brought strong, gusty winds and heavy rain to Alamagan, Agrihan and Pagan.  There was a small circular eye at the center of Typhoon Fengshen.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Fengshen.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 30 miles from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center.

Typhoon Fengshen will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next day or so.  Fengshen will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Fengshen could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Friday.

Typhoon Fengshen will move around the western end of a ridge of high pressure over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Fengshen toward the north during the next 24 hours.  The typhoon will move toward the northeast on Saturday after it moves around the end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Fengshen will be south of Iwo To in about 24 hours.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Kalmaegi move closer to northern Luzon.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Kalmaegi was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 125.0°E which put it about 250 miles (400 km) southeast of Aparri, Philippines.  Kalmaegi was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Fengshen Prompts Typhoon Warning for Northern Marianas

Tropical Storm Fengshen prompted the National Weather Service Office in Guam to issue a Typhoon Warning for portions of the Northern Marianas on Wednesday night.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Fengshen was located at latitude 17.2°N and longitude 149.0°E which put it about 265 miles (430 km) east of Alamagan.  Fengshen was moving toward west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (129 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

A Typhoon Warning was in effect for Alamagan, Pagan and Agrihan.

Tropical Storm Fengshen strengthened slowly on Wednesday, although the thunderstorm activity fluctuated during the day.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation on Wednesday night.  Those thunderstorms were generating some upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the west of the tropical storm.  The strongest rainbands were in the southern and eastern parts of Fengshen.  Bands in the northern wand western parts of the circulations consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Fengshen may have pulled drier air into the tropical storm.  The drier air may have mixed into rainbands in the northern and western parts of Fengshen and caused the thunderstorms in those parts of the tropical storm to weaken.  Tropical Storm Fengshen will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Fengshen will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move south of an upper level ridge centered south of Japan.  The ridge will produce northeasterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The wind shear and drier air will slow the rate of intensification.  Tropical Storm Fengshen could strengthen into a typhoon within 24 hours.

The ridge south of Japan will steer Tropical Storm Fengshen toward the west for another 12 to 24 hours.  Fengshen will start to move toward the north when it reaches the western end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Fengshen could reach Alamagan, Pagan and Agrihan in about 12 hours.  Fengshen could be a typhoon at that time.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Kalmaegi moved slowly toward northern Luzon.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Kalmaegi was located at latitude 14.3°N and longitude 127.2°E which put it about 425 miles (685 km) east-southeast of Baler, Philippines.  Kalmaegi was moving toward northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Kalmaegi Forms East of Luzon

Tropical Storm Kalmaegi formed east of Luzon on Tuesday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Kalmaegi was located at latitude 12.9°N and longitude 128.8°E which put it about 350 miles (565 km) east of Legaspi, Philippines.  Kalmaegi was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

The Japan Meteorological Agency determined that former Tropical Depression 27W strengthened into Tropical Storm Kalmaegi on Tuesday night.  The circulation Kalmaegi was not well organized.  There was a large, broad area of low pressure, but there were few thunderstorms near the center of circulation.  Most of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northwestern part of Tropical Storm Kalmaegi.  Bands in the other portions of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Storm Kalmaegi will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification.  Kalmaegi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  So, there is plenty of energy in the upper layer of the Western North Pacific Ocean to support intensification.  However, Tropical Storm Kalmaegi will move around the southwestern part of an upper level ridge centered south of Japan on Wednesday.  The ridge will produce northeasterly winds which will blow across the eastern part of the tropical storm.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and they will inhibit intensification.  In 12 to 24 hours Kalmaegi will move closer to the western end of the ridge and the upper level winds will blow from the south.  The wind shear could decrease when the wind direction changes, which may allow the tropical storm to strengthen.

The ridge south of Japan will steer Tropical Storm Kalmaegi toward the northwest during the next 48 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Kalmaegi could approach northeastern Luzon in 48 to 72 hours.  Since the strongest thunderstorms are in the northwestern part of Kalmaegi, the tropical storm could drop locally heavy rain over Luzon even if the center does not make landfall.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Fengshen continued to organize east of the Northern Marianas.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Fengshen was located at latitude 17.4°N and longitude 155.3°E which put it about 690 miles (1115 km) east-northeast of Saipan.  Fengshen was moving toward the west-northwest at 21 m.p.h. (34 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Fengshen Forms East of Northern Marianas

Tropical Storm Fengshen formed east of the Northern Marianas on Tuesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Fengshen was located at latitude 17.1°N and longitude 157.1°E which put it about 805 miles (1300 km) east of Saipan.  Fengshen was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of a cluster of thunderstorms east of the Northern Marianas on Tuesday and the Japan Meteorological Society designated the system as Tropical Storm Fengshen.  The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Storm Fengshen was asymmetrical.  Stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of the circulation.  Bands in the eastern half of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Fengshen was moving south of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge was producing easterly winds which were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear was contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Storm Fenshen will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Fengshen will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level ridge will continue to cause vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Fengshen will intensify gradually and it could strengthen into a typhoon during the next two to three days.

Tropical Storm Fengshen will move around the western end of the ridge over the Western North Pacific.  The ridge will steer Fengshen toward the west-northwest during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Tropical Storm Fengshen will move more toward the north in about 36 hours when it reaches the western end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Fengshen will pass northeast of the Northern Marianas.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression 27W developed east of Luzon.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression 27W was located at latitude 12.1°N and longitude 130.9°E which put it about 315 miles (510 km) east of Laoang, Philippines.  The depression was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Storm Nakri Stalls West of the Philippines

Tropical Storm Nakri stalled west of the Philippines on Thursday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Nakri was located at latitude 12.8°N and longitude 116.8°E which put it about 290 miles (465 km) west-southwest of Manila, Philippines.  Nakri was moving toward the south at 2 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Tropical Storm Nakri meandered slowly west of the Philippines on Thursday.  The structure of Nakri did not change a lot during the day.  There was a distinct low level center center of circulation.  Thunderstorms were forming on the south side of the center and the strongest winds were occurring in those thunderstorms.  Thunderstorms were also developing in bands in the southern half of Tropical Storm Nakri.  Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms south of the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Nakri will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Nakri mixed cooler water to the surface during the period when it meandered west of the Philippines, but it will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C when it starts moving.  Tropical Storm Nakri will move southeast of an upper level ridge over southeast Asia.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but it will not be strong enough to prevent Tropical Storm Nakri from strengthening.  Nakri will likely become a typhoon on Friday or Saturday.

Tropical Storm Nakri has been in an area where the steering winds have been weak and it has moved little during the past 24 hours.  The ridge over southeast Asia will strengthen and it will steer Nakri toward the east during the next 72 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Nakri could approach the coast of Vietnam in less than 72 hours.  Nakri is likely to be a typhoon when it approaches the coast of Vietnam.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Typhoon Halong was passing north of Minami Tori Shima, Japan.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Typhoon Halong was located at latitude 27.2°N and longitude 154.4°E which put it about 175 miles (280 km) north of Minami Tori Shima, Japan.  Halong was moving toward the northeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

Typhoon Halong Intensifies into Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane

Typhoon Halong intensified into the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Tuesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Halong was located at latitude 20.4°N and longitude 150.6°E which put it about 345 miles (560 km) southwest of Minami Tori Shima, Japan.  Halong was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 180 m.p.h. (290 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 220 m.p.h. (355 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 900 mb.

Typhoon Halong intensified into one of the strongest tropical cyclones of 2019 over the Western North Pacific Ocean on Tuesday.  There was a circular eye with a diameter of 15 miles (24 km) at the center of Halong.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Halong.  Storm near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the northeast of the typhoon.

The circulation around Typhoon along was compact and symmetrical.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Halong was 42.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 51.6.

Typhoon Halong has probably reached its peak intensity.  Halong will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  However, an upper level trough near Japan will approach Typhoon Halong from the northwest.  The trough will produce strong southwesterly winds which will start to increase the vertical wind shear.  More wind shear will cause Halong to weaken.

The upper level trough will start to steer Typhoon Halong toward the northeast in 12 to 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Halong will pass northwest of Minami Tori Shima on Thursday.  Even though it will weaken, Halong will bring strong, gusty winds and heavy rain.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Nakri developed over the South China Sea between the Philippines and Vietnam on Tuesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Nakri was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 116.0°E which put it about 380 miles (615 km) west of Manila, Philippines.  Nakri was moving toward the northeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Although Tropical Storm Nakri is currently moving toward the northeast, it is forecast to move back toward the west later this week.  Nakri will move through an environment favorable for intensification.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  Tropical Storm Nakri could strengthen into a typhoon before it reaches the coast of Vietnam.

Tropical Storm Neoguri Forms East of Northern Luzon

Tropical Storm Neoguri formed east of northern Luzon on Thursday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Neoguri was located at latitude 20.1°N and longitude 129.4°E which put it about 470 miles (755 km) south-southeast of Okinawa and about 500 miles (800 km) east-northeast of the northern end of Luzon.  Neoguri was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation developed on the western side of a cluster of thunderstorms east of northern Luzon on Thursday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Neoguri.  The circulation around Neoguri exhibited much more organization.  The inner part of a rainband wrapped around the center of circulation.  A broken ring of thunderstorms formed around the southwestern half of the center and an elliptical eyelike feature appeared on microwave satellite images.  The long axis of the elliptical eye was oriented northeast to southwest.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms developed in the eastern half of Tropical Storm Neoguri.  Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Neoguri will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Neoguri will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge where the winds are weaker.  There will not be a lot of vertical wind shear during the next 24 hours.  There appears to be drier air to the northwest of Tropical Storm Neoguri, which may be the reason why the rainbands in the western half of the circulation are weaker.  If Neoguri pulls drier air into the core of the circulation, then that would inhibit intensification.  On the other hand, if an eye does form completely, then Tropical Storm Neoguri could strengthen into a typhoon.

The future track of Tropical Storm Neoguri will depend on how strong it becomes.  If Neoguri strengthens, then a trough over China will likely steer the tropical storm toward the northeast.  However, if drier air gets pulled into the core of the circulation, then a weaker Tropical Storm Neoguri would be steered by winds closer to the surface.  A high pressure system over the Western North Pacific would steer Tropical Storm Neoguri toward the west.  Guidance from numerical models is split between these two scenarios.  Some models forecast a track toward the northeast and other models predict a track toward the west.  Tropical Storm Neoguri did not move much on Thursday and either scenario is possible.

Tropical Storm Lingling Forms East of Luzon

Tropical Storm Lingling formed east of Luzon on Sunday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Lingling was located at latitude 15.1°N and longitude 126.1°E which put it about 300 miles (485 km) east of Luzon.  Lingling was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A distinct center of circulation developed in an area of thunderstorms east of Luzon on Sunday night and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Lingling.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Lingling was still organizing.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were forming around the center of circulation.  Storms around the center of circulation were starting to generate upper level divergence.

Tropical Storm Lingling will move through an environment favorable for intensification.  Lingling will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move near the western end of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Lingling will intensify and it could strengthen into a typhoon in a few days.

Tropical Storm Lingling will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Lingling toward the north-northwest.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Lingling will remain east of Luzon.  Lingling will approach Taiwan and the southern Ryukyu Islands in about 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Podul Forms East of Luzon

Tropical Storm Podul formed east of Luzon on Monday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Podul was located at latitude 15.1°N and longitude 125.2°E which put it about 250 miles (400 km) east of Baler, Philippines.  Podul was moving a little to the north of due west at 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A low level center of circulation in an area of thunderstorms east of Luzon was visible in satellite imagery on Monday night and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Podul.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Podul was not well organized.  Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in broken bands west of the center of circulation.  Bands in the eastern half of Podul consisted primarily showers and lower clouds.  Tropical Storm Podul was moving south of an upper level ridge over eastern Asia and the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge was producing easterly winds which were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The shear was contributing to the poorly organized circulation around Podul.

Tropical Storm Podul will move through an environment mostly unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours,  Podul will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  However, the upper level ridge will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The center will move across northern Luzon and increased friction will weaken the circulation.  Tropical Storm Podul could weaken to a tropical depression when it crosses Luzon.  Podul could strengthen in the middle of the week when it moves west of Luzon and out over the South China Sea.

Tropical Storm Podul will move south of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Podul a little to the north of due west during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Podul will move across northern Luzon on Tuesday. Podul will cause gusty winds and locally heavy rain.  The rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Storm Podul will move west of Luzon and over the South China Sea in about 24 hours.  Podul could approach Hainan Island in about 72 hours.