Tag Archives: Philippines

Goni Intensifies Rapidly Into a Strong Typhoon

Goni intensified rapidly from a tropical storm into a strong typhoon on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Goni was located at latitude 16.7°N and longitude 141.1°E which put it about 265 miles (425 km) west of Anatahan.  Goni was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h) which made Goni the equivalent of a major hurricane.  There were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and the minimum surface pressure was 937 mb.

The circulation of Goni organized quickly on Sunday and it was able to intensify rapidly.  The primary rainband wrapped tightly around the center of circulation and a tiny pinhole eye formed in the center.  The band continued to wrap about the core of the circulation and it could be about to form a second, larger concentric eyewall.  The structure of Goni looks a lot like the circulation of Typhoon Soudelor did when it intensified rapidly.  Light easterly winds in the upper levels enhanced divergence to the west of Goni and pumped out mass allowing the pressure to fall rapidly.

Goni is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are warm.  The vertical wind shear is minimal and further intensification is possible.  If concentric eyewalls form, eyewall replacement cycles could produce fluctuations in intensity.

A subtropical ridge is steering Goni toward the west-northwest and that general steering pattern is expected to continue for another three or four days.  At that time Goni could be near the western end of the subtropical ridge.  An upper level trough in the mid-latitude westerlies could approach the typhoon from the northwest and turn it toward the north.

Tropical Storm Linfa Heading for Taiwan

Tropical Storm Linfa crossed northern Luzon and turned for Taiwan on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Linfa was located at latitude 19.0°N and longitude 119.4°E which put it about 230 miles (370 km) south-southwest of Hengchun, Taiwan.  Linfa was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (70 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Linfa was relatively intact after it crossed northern Luzon and it moved back over water.  However, an upper level ridge over eastern Asia generated northeasterly winds that were strong enough to blow the top off of the circulation.  Strong upper level wind shear is making it difficult for new thunderstorms to form near the center of circulation.  Although Linfa will be moving over warm water, the wind shear will limit intensification.

Linfa has reached the western end of the subtropical ridge that has been steering the tropical storm.  It has turned toward the north and that general movement is expected to continue.  On its anticipated track Linfa could approach southern Taiwan in about two days.  It could bring locally heavy rain to parts of Taiwan.

Tropical Storm Linfa Makes Landfall in Northern Luzon

Tropical Storm Linfa made landfall in northern Luzon on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Linfa was located at latitude 17.8°N and longitude 121.7°E which put it near Tuguegarao, Philippines.  Linfa was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 m.p.h.) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.   Linfa is bringing gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of northern Luzon.

Linfa should continue to weaken during the next 12 to 18 hours while the center is over land.  If the circulation is intact when it moves back over water, then the tropical storm may intensify once it gets north of the Philippines.  Linfa will soon reach the western end of a subtropical ridge which has been steering it toward the west.  When Linfa reaches the end of the ridge, it will likely turn toward the north.  The tropical storm could approach Taiwan in 48 to 72 hours.

Tropical Storm Linfa Nearing Northern Luzon

Tropical Storm Linfa is moving steadily toward the coast of northern Luzon.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Linfa was located at latitude 16.1°N and longitude 123.9°E which put it about 230 miles (370 km) east-northeast of Manila, Philippines.  Linfa was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Tropical Storm Linfa has a small circulation, but it appears to be intensifying quickly.  A circular area of strong thunderstorms has developed around the center of circulation and it is producing strong upper level outflow.  Linfa is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge northwest of the tropical storm is producing some vertical wind shear, but the shear does not seem to be enough to prevent intensification.  Linfa has about 18 hours to intensify before it reaches the coast of Luzon and it could attain typhoon intensity before it gets there.  Mountains in northern Luzon will disrupt the lowers levels of the circulation and Linfa will weaken after if makes landfall.

A subtropical ridge is steering Linfa toward the northwest and that steering pattern is expected to continue until the tropical storm makes landfall in northern Luzon.   Linfa will reach the western end of the subtropical ridge while it is over Luzon and if the circulation remains intact vertically, it will turn toward the north.  On its anticipated track Linfa will make landfall in northern Luzon in about 18 hours.  It is expected to eventually turn north toward Taiwan and the southern islands of Japan.  Linfa cold bring strong winds and locally heavy rainfall for parts of northern Luzon.  Heavy rainfall could contribute to flooding and mudslides in some locations.

Tropical Storm Linfa Forms East of the Philippines

A well defined low level circulation developed in an area of thunderstorms east of the Philippines on Thursday and the system was designated as Tropical Storm Linfa (10W).  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Linfa was located at latitude 16.3°N and longitude 127.6°E which put it about 470 miles (760 km) east-northeast of Manila, Philippines.  Linfa was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (70 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Linfa developed over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 30°C,  There is sufficient energy in the upper ocean to support intensification.  An upper level ridge centered northwest of Linfa is producing northeasterly winds over the top of the circulation and most of the thunderstorms are occurring west of the center.  The vertical wind shear is modest and some upper level divergence is present, especially over the western half of the circulation.  The vertical wind shear is expected to remain moderate and Linfa could intensify during the next several days.  If the upper level winds weaken, then a period of more rapid intensification is possible.

Linfa is being steered by a subtropical ridge located to the east of the tropical storm.  The ridge is expected to steer it toward the northwest in the short term.  As Linfa reaches the western end of the ridge it is expected to be steered more toward the north.  The timing of the turn toward the north will be important because it will determine if Linfa moves over the northern Philippines or moves northeast of that area.  The timing on the turn to the north will also determine the potential risk for Taiwan.  Another factor that could complicated the track forecast is a potential interaction with Typhoon Chan-hom which is abut 1500 miles (2400 km) east-southeast of Linfa.

Tropical Storm Maysak Making Landfall in Luzon

Typhoon Maysak moved into an area of drier air and weakened to a tropical storm on Saturday before making landfall in Luzon.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Maysak was located at latitude 16.7°N and longitude 122.0°E which put it about 20 miles southeast of Cauayan and about 160 miles northeast of Manila, Philippines.  Maysak was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 65 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Maysak is moving inland over Luzon.  The combination of the mountains in northern Luzon and drier air will cause Maysak to continue to weaken.  Even as the wind speeds decrease, air flowing up the sides of mountains will enhance the rainfall and create the potential for localized flooding and mudslides.  If a closed circulation still exists, it will be much weaker when it emerges over the South China Sea on Sunday.

Typhoon Maysak Nearing Luzon

Typhoon Maysak maintained its heading toward Luzon on Friday and it is about 24 hours away from making landfall.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Maysak was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 127.2°E which put it about 200 miles east-northeast of Catanduanes Island and about east-southeast of Luzon.  Maysak was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 95 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 115 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

An upper level trough that was causing vertical wind shear over Maysak moved eastward on Friday and the wind shear over the typhoon decreased.  Infrared satellite imagery indicates that more convection developed near the core of Maysak and the upper level divergence has increased in recent hours.  The additional convection appears to have slowed the weakening of the circulation.  Maysak will remain over warm Sea Surface Temperatures as it approaches Luzon and so it will likely still be a typhoon when it makes landfall there.  If new thunderstorms continue to develop near the center of circulation, then some intensification may be possible before landfall.

A subtropical ridge is steering Maysak toward the west-northwest and that motion is expected to continue.  On the projected track Maysak would make landfall in Luzon in 24 to 36 hours.  It has the potential to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Luzon.  The locally heavy rain will also create the conditions that could produce mudslides in some areas.

Typhoon Maysak Weakening As It Moves Toward Luzon

Typhoon Maysak weakened slowly on Thursday as it moved in the direction of Luzon.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Maysak was located at latitude 14.3°N and longitude 130.6°E which put it about 420 miles east of Catanduanes Island and about 580 miles east-southeast of Luzon.  Maysak was moving toward the west-northwest at 11 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 948 mb.

An upper level trough passing north of Maysak is generating vertical wind shear which is causing the typhoon to weaken slowly.  The western side of the trough contains some drier air which is also getting into the circulation of Maysak.  The drier air is reducing the amount of latent energy available to maintain the circulation.  So, even though Maysak is still over warm Sea Surface Temperatures it is slowly weakening.  The wind shear may decrease after the upper level trough moves east of Maysak, but as the typhoon moves further west, it will still encounter drier air.  As a result, Maysak it expected to continue to slowly weaken.

A subtropical ridge is steering Maysak in a west-northwesterly direction.  The upper level trough has temporarily weakened the ridge and Maysak is moving a bit more toward the northwest.  After the upper level trough moves east of the typhoon, it is expected to resume a west-northwesterly motion.  The expected track would bring Maysak close to Luzon in 36 to 42 hours.  Maysak is expected to be a low end typhoon or strong tropical storm when it nears Luzon.  It will be capable of producing some stronger winds and locally heavy rainfall as it moves across Luzon.

Typhoon Maysak Weakens As It Moves Away from Yap

Typhoon Maysak weakened below Super Typhoon intensity on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typoon Maysak was located at latitude 12.6°N and longitude 133.5°E which put it about 300 miles northwest of Yap and about 780 miles east-southwest of Luzon.  Maysak was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 135 m.p.h. and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 937 mb.

Maysak appears to have gone through an eyewall replacement cycle on Wednesday.  A rainband wrapped around the existing eyewall to create to concentric eyewalls.  As more air started to converge and rise in the outer eyewall, the inner eyewall which had the stronger winds weakened.  As the inner eyewall dissipated, the core of Maysak became enlarged and it now has an eye with a diameter of 32 miles.  The maximum wind speed decreased as part of the eyewall replacement process.  If the current eye were to shrink, the wind speed could increase again because it is still over warm Sea Surface Temperatures.  However, as Maysak moves toward the west-northwest it is moving toward an area where the upper level winds are stronger.  An upper level trough located northwest of Maysak is generating stronger upper level winds, which will increase the vertical wind shear.  Maysak could intensify on Thursday, but the wind shear is expected to weaken it during the next several days.

A subtropical ridge is steering Maysak toward the west-northwest.  The upper level trough is expected to make it move a little more toward the north during the next 24 to 48 hours.  On its expected track, Maysak could be approaching Luzon in about 60 hours.  Maysak is expected to still be a typhoon when it approaches Luzon.  It could bring strong winds and locally heavy rains.

Super Typhoon Maysak Passing North of Yap

The core of Super Typhoon Maysak passed north of Yap on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Super Typhoon Maysak was located at latitude 10.7°N and longitude 137.2°E which put it about 90 miles north-northwest of Yap and about 1000 miles east-southeast of Luzon.  Maysak was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h., which made Maysak the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  There were gusts to 195 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was 918 mb.

Maysak continues to exhibit a very impressive structure.  It is very symmetrical and there is strong upper level outflow in all directions.  Some satellite imagery suggests the circulation may have developed concentric eyewalls and that could mean an eyewall replacement is underway.  If so, the intensity could fluctuate while the inner eyewall weakens and the inflow becomes focused on the outer eyewall.  The overall environment around Maysak is very supportive of an intense tropical cyclone.  The upper level winds are relatively light and it is over warm Sea Surface Temperatures.  Maysak could maintain super typhoon intensity for another day or two.  It could move into an area of stronger upper level winds in several days, which would increase the vertical wind shear.

A subtropical ridge is expected to continue to steer Maysak toward the west-northwest.  On the projected track, Maysak could approach Luzon in about four days.  Even if it weakens, it is likely to be a typhoon when it nears the northern Philippines.  It has the potential to bring strong winds and locally heavy rains.