Tag Archives: EP11

Tropical Depression Forms South of Baja California

Tropical Depression Eleven-E formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Thursday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located at latitude 18.9°N and longitude 110.5°W which put it about 280 miles (450 km) south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. The tropical depression was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of a low pressure system south of Baja California on Thursday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Eleven-E. The circulation around Tropical Depression Eleven-E was large. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of the tropical depression. Thunderstorms that develop near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Eleven-E will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will strengthen to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours. The large circulation around the tropical depression could prevent it from intensifying quickly.

Tropical Depression Eleven-E will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over northern Mexico. The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Eleven-E will move parallel to the southwest coast of Baja California.

Linda Strengthens to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Linda strengthened to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Thursday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Linda was located at latitude 14.8°N and longitude 107.7°W which put it about 365 miles (590 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Linda was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Linda strengthened on Thursday morning and the National Hurricane Center upgraded it to a hurricane. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern side of the center of Linda and satellite images intermittently depicted the potential formation of an eye. Most of the thunderstorms in Hurricane Linda were occurring near the center of circulation and in bands in the southern half of the hurricane. Bands in the northern half of Linda consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Linda. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Linda will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Linda will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge centered near Baja California. The ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Hurricane Linda’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will somewhat inhibit intensification but the shear will not strong enough to prevent Linda from strengthening.

Hurricane Linda will move south of a high pressure system that extends from Mexico westward over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Linda toward the west-northwest during the next several days. On it anticipated track Hurricane Linda will pass south of Baja California.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression Kevin was weakening west of Baja California. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Kevin was located at latitude 23.2°N and longitude 120.6°W which put it about 465 miles (750 km) southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico. Kevin was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Tropical Storm Linda Forms South of Mexico

Tropical Storm Linda formed south of Mexico on Tuesday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Linda was located at latitude 14.4°N and longitude 102.8°W which put it about 260 miles (480 km) southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Linda was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system south of Mexico strengthened on Tuesday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Linda. The inner end of a rainband was wrapping around the western and southern sides of the center of Linda. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) on the eastern side of Linda. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles in the western half of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Linda will move through an environment relatively favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Linda will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge centered over Mexico. The ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Linda’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification but it may not strong enough to prevent Linda from strengthening.

Tropical Storm Linda will move south of a high pressure system that extends from Mexico westward over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Linda toward the west-northwest during the next several days. On it anticipated track Tropical Storm Linda will move away from Mexico.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Kevin was spinning south of Baja California. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was located at latitude 19.1°N and longitude 115.5°W which put it about 445 miles (720 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Kevin was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Storm Kevin Forms Southwest of Mexico

Tropical Storm Kevin formed southwest of Mexico on Saturday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was located at latitude 15.8°N and longitude 106.8°W which put it about 530 miles (855 km) south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California. Kevin was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of a low pressure system southwest of Mexico on Saturday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Kevin. The circulation around Kevin exhibited more organization as the day progressed. As mentioned previously, more thunderstorms formed near the center of circulation. More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Kevin. Storm near the center began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles in the northern half of Kevin’s circulation. Winds in the southern half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Kevin will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Kevin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Kevin will continue to intensify and it could strengthen into a hurricane by Monday.

Tropical Storm Kevin will move south of a ridge of high pressure that extends from the Gulf of Mexico to the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will steer Kevin toward the west-northwest during the next few days. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Kevin will remain south of Baja California.

Tropical Storm Fausto Develops Southwest of Baja California

Tropical Storm Fausto developed southwest of Baja California on Sunday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Fausto was located at latitude 20.7°N and longitude 119.6°W which put it about 640 miles (1020 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Fausto was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of former Tropical Depression Eleven-E on Sunday morning and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Fausto.  The distribution of thunderstorms around Fausto was asymmetrical.  Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern half of the circulation.  The strongest winds were occurring in those bands of thunderstorms.  Bands in the southern half of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) in the northern half of the circulation.  The wind in the southern half of the circulation was blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Fausto will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification.  Fausto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 25°C.  An upper level trough west of Tropical Storm Fausto will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause vertical wind shear which will also inhibit potential intensification.  Tropical Storm Faust is likely to weaken slowly when it moves over cooler water.

Tropical Storm Fausto will move south of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Fausto toward the west during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Fausto will move away from Baja California.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression Twelve-E spun up quickly south of Mexico and Tropical Depression Ten-E stalled between Mexico and Hawaii.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Twelve-E was located at latitude 11.3°N and longitude 97.3°W which put it about 525 miles (850 km) southeast of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.  The depression was moving toward the north-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.  Tropical Depression Twelve-E is forecast to intensify quickly and it could strengthen into a major hurricane during the next several days.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located at latitude 13.7°N and longitude 134.0°W which put it about 1700 miles (2735 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  The depression was moving toward the north-northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Akoni Develops Southeast of Hawaii

Tropical Storm Akoni developed southeast of Hawaii on Thursday.  At 7:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Akoni was located at latitude 12.2°N and longitude 144.8°W which put it about 855 miles (1380 km) southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.  Akoni was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

More thunderstorms developed near an area of low pressure southeast of Hawaii on Thursday and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center designated it as Tropical Storm Akoni when satellites indicated there were winds to tropical storm force.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Akoni was still organizing.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were forming.  The strongest rainbands were in the southern half of the circulation.  Bands in the northern half of the circulation were not as strong.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Akoni will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Akoni will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move southeast of an upper level trough northeast of Hawaii.  The trough will produce southwesterly winds which will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Akoni is forecast to strengthen gradually during the next several days.

Tropical Storm Akoni will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the eastern and central Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Akoni toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Akoni will be south of Hawaii on Sunday.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Juliette was weakening slowly southwest of Baja California.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Juliette was located at latitude 21.3°N and 120.8°W which put it about 870 miles (1380 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Juliette was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Juliette Rapidly Intensifies Into a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Juliette rapidly intensified into a major hurricane southwest of Baja California on Monday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Juliette was located at latitude 17.8°N and longitude 114.0°W which put it abou 440 miles (710 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Juliette was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

Hurricane Juliette intensified rapidly on Monday as it moved through an environment of warm water and littler vertical wind shear.  An eye developed at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of strong thunderstorms increased in the eastern half of the circulation.  Bands in the western half of the circulation contained fewer thunderstorms.  Storms around the core of Juliette generated strong upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 125 miles (200 km) from the center.

Hurricane Juliette will remain in an environment favorable for intensification for another day or so.  Juliette will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are not too strong and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Juliette could strengthen further on Tuesday.  Juliette will move over cooler water later this week and it will start to weaken.

Hurricane Juliette will move southwest of a ridge over the southwestern U.S.  The ridge will steer Juliette toward the northwest.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Juliette will remain well west of Baja California.

Tropical Storm Juliette Develops Rapidly South of Baja California

Tropical Storm Juliette developed rapidly south of Baja California on Sunday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was located at latitude 14.3°N and longitude 108.8°W which put it about 600 miles (965 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Juliette was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Juliette organized very rapidly on Sunday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of circulation and a circular eye appeared to be forming at the center of Juliette.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Juliette will move through an environment very favorable for intensification.  Juliette will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Juliette is likely to continue to intensify rapidly during the next day or two.  Juliette is likely to strengthen into a hurricane within 12 hours and it could be a major hurricane within 48 hours.

Hurricane John Absorbs Ileana, Tropical Storm Kristy Forms

The much stronger and larger circulation of Hurricane John absorbed the smaller and weaker Tropical Storm Ileana south of Baja California on Tuesday morning, while Tropical Storm Kristy formed farther west over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane John was located at latitude 18.7°N and longitude 110.5°W which put it about 295 miles (470 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  John was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

The circulation of Hurricane John is well organized.  A circular eye is at the center of circulation.  A ring of stronger thunderstorms wraps around the eye.  The strongest storms are in the eastern half of the ring and that is where the strongest winds are occurring.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the core of Hurricane John.  The strongest bands are south and east of the center of circulation.  The bands north and west of the center are weaker and there is cooler water in that area.  Storms around the core of the circulation are generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping mass away from the hurricane.

Hurricane John will move through an environment favorable for intensification on Wednesday.  John will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak.  Hurricane John could intensify on lWednesday and it has a chance to strengthen into a major hurricane.  John will start to move over cooler water in 24 to 36 hours and it will start to weaken when that happens.

Hurricane John will move around the western side of a ridge in the middle troposphere.  The ridge will steer John toward the northwest during the next day or two.  On its anticipated track the core of Hurricane John will pass west of Baja California.  Rainbands north of the center of Hurricane John could drop locally heavy rain over parts of Baja California and there will be a risk of flash floods.  Hurricane John could push higher surf along the west coast of Baja California toward southern California.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific, Tropical Storm Kristy formed southwest of Hurricane John on Tuesday morning.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Kristy was located at latitude 13.7°N and longitude 127.1°W which put it about 1290 miles (2080 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Kristy was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.  There is much uncertainty about whether or not the circulation of Tropical Storm Kristy will be affected by the circulation of Hurricane John.

Powerful Hurricane Hector Approaches Central Pacific, Ileana Forms South of Mexico

Powerful Hurricane Hector approached the Central Pacific Ocean on Sunday while Tropical Storm Ileana and Tropical Depression Twelve-E formed south of Mexico.  The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the coast because of the potential impacts of Tropical Storm Ileana.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Hector was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 138.6°W which put it about 1170 miles (1885 km) east-southeast of South Point, Hawaii.  Hector was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (270 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

The circulation of Hurricane Hector was very well organized.  There was a circular eye with a diameter of 18 miles (29 km) at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Hector.  Storms in the core of Hector were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation of Hurricane Hector remained compact.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 30 miles (50 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Hector was 28.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9,9 and The Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 38.2.

Hurricane Hector will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong hurricane during the next day or two.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C and 28°C.  Hector will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  An eyewall replacement cycle could occur if a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall.  It would cause fluctuations in the intensity of Hurricane Hector.

Hurricane Hector will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Hurricane Hector toward the west during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Hector will be southeast of Hawaii in about three days.

Tropical Storm Ileana developed south of Mexico on Sunday.  The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the portion of the coast from Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located at latitude 13.9°N and longitude 98.9°W which put it about 210 miles (335 km) south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico.  Ileana was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Depression Twelve-E formed west of Tropical Storm Ileana on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Twelve-E was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 105.8°W which put it about 320 miles (515 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  It was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

There is uncertainty about the future interaction of Tropical Storm Ileana and Tropical Depression Twelve-E.  The circulation of Tropical Depression Twelve-E is much larger than the circulation of Tropical Storm Ileana.  In addition, upper level divergence form the depression could cause vertical wind shear over Tropical Storm Ileana.  In one possible scenario Tropical Storm Ileana moves toward Tropical Depression Twelve-E and it is absorbed by the larger circulation.  Another possibility is that Tropical Storm Ileana moves around the eastern periphery of the circulation of the tropical depression,  The second scenario would bring Tropical Storm Ileana close to the west coast of Mexico which is why the Tropical Storm Watch was issued.