Tag Archives: Guerrero

Tropical Storm Erick Strengthens

Tropical Storm Erick strengthened on Tuesday as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located at latitude 13.1°N and longitude 94.9°W which put the center about 330 miles (535 km) southeast of Punta Maldonado, Mexico.  Erick was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Angel to Acapulco, Mexico.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Angel to Bahias de Huatulco, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Erick strengthened on Tuesday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western and southern sides of the center of Erick’s circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Erick.  Storms near the center of Erick generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Storm Erick was somewhat asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the western half of Erick’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Erick.

Tropical Storm Erick will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours.  Erick will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over Central America and the adjacent part of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Erick will intensify during the next 36 hours.  Erick could rapidly intensify at times.  Tropical Storm Erick will intensify to a hurricane on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Erick will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Central America and southern Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Erick toward the northwest during the next 36 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Erick will move toward the coast of southern Mexico.  Erick could make landfall in southern Mexico between Acapulco and Punta Maldonado on Thursday.

Tropical Storm Erick will be a hurricane when it makes landfall on the coast of Mexico.  Erick will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of Oaxaca, Guerrero and Michoacan.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Storm Erick could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast.

Tropical Storm Erick Forms, Hurricane Watch for Mexico

Tropical Storm Erick formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico early on Tuesday.  The government of Mexico issued a Hurricane Watch for the portion of the coast.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located at latitude 12.1°N and longitude 93.8°W which put the center about 515 miles (830 km) southeast of Acapulco, Mexico.  Erick was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bahias de Huatulco to Punta Maldonado, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bahias de Huatulco to Salina Cruz, Mexico.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean strengthened during Monday night and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Erick.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Erick exhibited more organization on Tuesday morning.  Bands of thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Erick’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Erick generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Tropical Storm Erick will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours.  Erick will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over Central America and the adjacent part of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Erick will intensify during the next 36 hours.  Erick could rapidly intensify to a hurricane by Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Erick will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Central America and southern Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Erick toward the northwest during the next 36 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Erick will move toward the coast of southern Mexico.  Erick could make landfall in southern Mexico between Acapulco and Punta Maldonado on Thursday.

Tropical Storm Erick will be a hurricane when it makes landfall on the coast of Mexico.  Erick will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of Oaxaca, Guerrero and Michoacan.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Storm Erick could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast.

Tropical Storm Dalila Intensifies Southwest of Mexico

Tropical Storm Dalila intensified over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Saturday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was located at latitude 16.5°N and longitude 104.1°W which put the center about 175 miles (285 km) south of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Dalila was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Tecpan de Galeana to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Dalila intensified over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Saturday morning.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Dalila’s circulation.   More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Dalila.  Storms near the center of Dalila generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Dalila was large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 230 miles (370 km) from the center of Dalila’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Dalila will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dalila will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the middle part of an upper level ridge over southern Mexico and the adjacent part of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Dalila will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical disturbance toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Dalila will start to move a little farther away from the coast of southwestern Mexico.

Thunderstorms in bands in the northern periphery of Tropical Storm Dalila will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to coastal portions of southwestern Mexico.  The heaviest rain is likely fall in parts of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some location.

Tropical Storm Dalila Forms South of Mexico

Tropical Storm Dalila formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Friday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was located at latitude 14.8°N and longitude 102.4°W which put the center about 205 miles (335 km) south-southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.  Dalila was moving toward the north-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Lazaro Cardenas to Playa Perula, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan de Galeana, Mexico,

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico strengthened on Friday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Dalila.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western side of the center of Dalila’s circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Dalila.  Storms near the center of Dalila generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Dalila was large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 310 miles (500 km) from the center of Dalila’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Dalila will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dalila will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle part of an upper level ridge over southern Mexico and the adjacent part of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Dalila will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical disturbance toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Dalila will move a little closer to the coast of southwestern Mexico on Friday night.

Thunderstorms in bands in the northern periphery of Tropical Storm Dalila will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to coastal portions of southwestern Mexico.  The heaviest rain is likely fall in parts of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some location.

Disturbance Prompts Tropical Storm Watch for Mexico

The potential risk caused by a tropical disturbance over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean prompted the government of Mexico to issued a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the coast on Thursday afternoon.  The U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the tropical disturbance as Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E was located at latitude 11.3°N and longitude 100.2°W which put the center about 450 miles (725 km) south-southeast of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.  The tropical disturbance was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo, Mexico.

A tropical disturbance over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean exhibited more organization on Thursday afternoon.  Satellite loops appeared to show a counterclockwise rotation in the middle troposphere.  It was unclear if there was a well defined center of circulation at the surface.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern and in the southern periphery of the tropical disturbance.  There were few thunderstorms near the broad center in the middle troposphere.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the tropical disturbance as Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E and began to issue regular advisories on the system.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E will move through an environment favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hour.  The tropical disturbance will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle part of an upper level ridge over southern Mexico and the adjacent part of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E is likely to form into a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical disturbance toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E will move closer to the coast of southwestern Mexico.

Thunderstorms in bands in the northern periphery of Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to coastal portions of southwestern Mexico.  The heaviest rain is likely fall in parts of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some location.

John Strengthens Back to a Hurricane Near West Coast of Mexico

Former Tropical Storm John strengthened back to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean near the west coast of Mexico on Thursday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane John was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 102.6°W which put the center about 55 miles (90 km) south-southwest of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico.  John was moving toward the west-northwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Maldonado to Tecpan de Galeana, Mexico.  The Tropical Storm Storm Warning includes Acapulco.  A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo, Mexico.

Former Tropical Storm John strengthened back to a hurricane on Thursday morning as the center moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean just off the west coast of Mexico.  A small circular eye formed at the center of Hurricane John.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the core of John’s circulation.  Storms near the core of John generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane John was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of John’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the southeastern quadrant of Hurricane John.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the other parts of John’s circulation.

Hurricane John will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours.  John will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will be in a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane John will intensify during the next 18 hours as long as the eye stays over water.

Hurricane John will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer John slowly toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane John will make another landfall on the west coast of Mexico on Thursday night.

Hurricane John will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the west coast of Mexico.  The strongest winds and heaviest rain will occur in Guerrero and Colima.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods and mudslides.  Hurricane John could also cause a storm surge of up to 8 feet (2.4 meters along the coast.

Tropical Storm John Redevelops West of Acapulco

Tropical Storm John redeveloped over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Acapulco on Wednesday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm John was located at latitude 16.5°N and longitude 101.4°W which put the center about 105 miles (165 km) west-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.  John was moving toward the north-northeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Zihuatanejo to Acapulco, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Maldonado to Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes Acapulco.

The middle level circulation of former Hurricane John drifted west-southwest during the past 36 hours.  When the middle level circulation moved back over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, it began to spin up a surface low pressure system.  The surface low pressure system intensified on Wednesday and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated it as Tropical Storm John.

The circulation around Tropical Storm John organized rapidly on Wednesday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern, northern and western sides of the center of John’s circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm John.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

The strongest winds were occurring in the eastern side of Tropical Storm John.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the eastern side of John’s circulation.  The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm John were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm John will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  John will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will be in a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm John will intensify during the next 24 hours.  John could strengthen back to a hurricane.

Tropical Storm John will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer John slowly toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm John will make another landfall on the coast of Mexico on Thursday.  The center of John’s circulation is likely to make landfall between Acapulco and Zihuatanejo.

Tropical Storm John  could be a hurricane when it makes landfall.  John will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of Mexico between Acapulco and Zihuatanejo.  Heavy rain will also fall over Guerrero as John moves inland again.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Storm John could cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along parts of the coast of Guerrero.

Hurricane John Hits Mexico

Rapidly intensifying Hurricane John hit the coast of Mexico near Punta Maldonado on Monday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane John was located at latitude 16.3°N and longitude 98.8°W which put the center about 15 miles (25 km) west of Punta Maldonado, Mexico.   John was moving toward the north at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).v  The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Acapulco to Bahias de Huatulco, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bahias de Huatulco to Salina Cruz, Mexico. 

Hurricane John rapidly intensified to a major hurricane as it approached the coast of Mexico near Punta Maldonado on Monday night.  A circular eye with a diameter of 6 miles (10 km) was at the center of John’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane John.

The circulation around Hurricane John was very small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of John’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Hurricane John.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane John was 22.1  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 4.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 26.1.  Hurricane John was capable of causing localized major damage.

Hurricane John will move inland over eastern Guerrero and western Oaxaca on Tuesday.  John will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the region around Punta Maldonado.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Hurricane John could also cause a storm surge of up to 12 feet (3.6 meters) along the coast near Punta Maldonado.

Hurricane John will weaken very quickly as it moves inland because of the small size of its circulation.  Even though John will weaken quickly, it will still drop heavy rain over parts of eastern Guerrero and western Oaxaca.  Flash floods are likely to occur in that region on Tuesday before Hurricane John dissipates.

John Rapidly Intensifies to a Hurricane South of Mexico

Former Tropical Storm John rapidly intensified to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Monday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane John was located at latitude 15.1°N and longitude 98.4°W which put the center about 85 miles (135 km) south of Punta Maldonado, Mexico.   John was moving toward the north at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Maldonado to Bahias de Huatulco, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bahias de Huatulco to Salina Cruz, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Maldonado to Acapulco, Mexico.

Former Tropical Storm John continued to intensify rapidly on Monday afternoon.  A small eye was present at the center of Hurricane John.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane John.  Storms near the core of John’s circulation generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane John was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of John’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Hurricane John.

Hurricane John will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  John will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will be in a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane John will intensify during the next 24 hours.  John could continue to intensify rapidly.  Hurricane John could to strengthen to a major hurricane.

Hurricane John will move around the southeastern part of a large counterclockwise circulation over southern Mexico sometimes called a Central American Gyre (CAG).  The large counterclockwise circulation will steer John slowly toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane John will reach the coast of Mexico near Punta Maldonado on Tuesday.

Hurricane John could be a major hurricane when it approaches the coast of Mexico.  John will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of southern Mexico.  Very heavy rain is likely to fall in Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Storm John also could cause a storm surge of 12 feet (3.6 meters) along parts of the coast.

 

Tropical Storm John Rapidly Intensifies South of Mexico

Tropical Storm John rapidly intensified over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Monday morning.  A Hurricane Warning was issued for a portion of the coast of Mexico.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm John was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 98.5°W which put the center about 125 miles (200 km) south of Punta Maldonado, Mexico.  John was moving toward the north-northeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Maldonado to Bahias de Huatulco, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bahias de Huatulco to Salina Cruz, Mexico.

Former Tropical Depression Ten-E rapidly intensified to Tropical Storm John on Monday morning.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of John’s circulation and a small eye was forming at the center of Tropical Storm John.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Storm John.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

The circulation around Tropical Storm John was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of John’s circulation.

Tropical Storm John will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  John will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will be in a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm John will intensify during the next 24 hours.  John is likely to strengthen to a hurricane.

Tropical Storm John will move around the southeastern part of a large counterclockwise circulation over southern Mexico sometimes called a Central American Gyre (CAG).  The large counterclockwise circulation will steer John slowly toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm John will approach the coast of Mexico on Tuesday.

Tropical Storm John is likely to be a hurricane when it approaches the coast of Mexico.  John will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of southern Mexico.  Very heavy rain is likely to fall in Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Storm John also could cause a storm surge of 8 feet (2,4 meters) along parts of the coast.