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Idalia Strengthens to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Idalia strengthened to a hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Idalia was located at latitude 23.8°N and longitude 84.8°W which put it about 320 miles (515 km) south-southwest of Tampa, Florida. Idalia was moving toward the north at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to the middle of Longboat Key, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included Tampa Bay. A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for the Cuban Province of Pinar del Rio. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Englewood to the middle of Longboat Key, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Chokoloskee to the middle of Longboat Key, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to Mexico Beach, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the Cuban Province. of Isle of Youth. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Lower Florida Keys west of Seven Mile Bridge. A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia to South Santee River, South Carolina.

Former Tropical Storm Idalia strengthened to a hurricane after the center of Idalia moved north of the western end of Cuba. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Idalia’s circulation. A weather radar at La Bajada, Cuba showed a small eye developed at the center of Hurricane Idalia. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Idalia’s circulation. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Idalia grew larger when Idalia intensified. Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Idalia’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Idalia will move into an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Idalia will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move into a region between an upper level ridge over the Yucatan Peninsula and an upper level trough over the central U.S. The upper level winds are weaker between the ridge and the trough and there will be little vertical wind shear during the next 12 to 18 hours. The upper level winds will be stronger when Idalia moves closer to the upper level trough on Wednesday morning. Hurricane Idalia will intensify during the next 24 hours. Idalia could intensify rapidly now that an inner core with an eye and an eyewall have developed. Hurricane Idalia could strengthen to a major hurricane.

Tropical Storm Idalia will move around the western end of high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system and the upper level trough over the central U.S. will steer Idalia toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Idalia is likely to make landfall on the coast of the northeast Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday morning. Idalia could make landfall as a major hurricane.

Hurricane Idalia is forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Florida. Idalia could be similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Dennis when Dennis hit Northwest Florida in 2005. Hurricane Idalia is likely to make landfall in an area where high storm surges can occur. Idalia could cause a storm surge of up to 12 feet (3.5 meters) near where the center makes landfall. A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the portion of the coast from Englewood to Indian Pass, Florida. The Storm Surge Warning includes Tampa Bay. Hurricane Idalia will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of central and northern Florida. Widespread outages of electricity are likely. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Franklin was a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the Atlantic Ocean west-southwest of Bermuda. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Franklin was located at latitude 30.4°N and longitude 70.7°W which put it about 370 miles (600 km) west-southwest of Bermuda. Franklin was moving toward the north-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (270 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 941 mb. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Idalia Causes Hurricane Warning for West Coast of Florida

The imminent threat posed by Tropical Storm Idalia caused the issuance of a Hurricane Warning for the west coast of Florida on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was located at latitude 20.8°N and longitude 85.2°W which put it about 80 miles (130 km) south-southwest of the western end of Cuba. Idalia was moving toward the north at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Ochlockonee River to the middle of Longboat Key, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included Tampa Bay. A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for the Cuban Province of Pinar del Rio. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portions of the coast from Englewood to the middle of Longboat Key, Florida and from the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Chokoloskee to the middle of Longboat Key, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, Mexico. The Tropical Storm Warning included Cozumel. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the Cuban Province. of Isle of Youth. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Lower Florida Keys west of Seven Mile Bridge. A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

Tropical Storm Idalai strengthened gradually on Monday morning. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Idalia’s circulation. Even though Tropical Storm Idalia was stronger, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms in Idalia were in bands in the southern and eastern parts of the circulation. Bands north and west of the center of circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Tropical Storm Idalia was under the eastern part of an upper level ridge over the Yucatan Peninsula. The ridge was producing northeasterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Idalia’s circulation. Those winds were causing vertical wind shear and the wind shear was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Storm Idalia will move into an environment that will become more favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Idalia will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move into a region between the upper level ridge over the Yucatan Peninsula and an upper level low over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The upper level winds are weaker between the ridge and the low and there will be less vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Idalia will intensify to a hurricane during the next 24 hours. Idalia could intensify rapidly when the upper level winds weaken. Idalia could strengthen to a major hurricane on Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Idalia will move around the western end of high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Idalia toward the north during the next 24 hours. The center of Idalia will pass near the western end of Cuba in a few hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Idalia will move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday night. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will turn Idalia toward the northeast later on Tuesday. Idalia is likely to make landfall on the west coast of Florida on Wednesday morning. Idalia could make landfall as a major hurricane.

Tropical Storm Idalia will drop heavy rain over parts of the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Idalia could be be a major hurricane when it reaches the west coast of Florida. Idalia is likely to make landfall in an area where high storm surges can occur. Idalia could cause a storm surge of up to 12 feet (3.5 meters) near where the center makes landfall. A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the portion of the coast from Englewood to Ocholockonee River, Florida. The Storm Surge Warning includes Tampa Bay. Idalia will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of central and northern Florida. Widespread outages of electricity are likely. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Franklin rapidly intensified to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale was over the Atlantic Ocean southwest of Bermuda. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Franklin was located at latitude 27.8°N and longitude 71.0°W which put it about 480 miles (770 km) southwest of Bermuda. Franklin was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 170 m.p.h. (280 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 937 mb. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Idalia Prompts Hurricane Watch for West Coast of Florida

A risk posed by Tropical Storm Idalia prompted the issuance of a Hurricane Watch for part of the west coast of Florida. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was located at latitude 20.1°N and longitude 85.5°W which put it about 95 miles (155 km) east-southeast of Cozumel. Idalia was moving toward the northeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (60 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Englewood to Indian Pass, Florida. The Hurricane Watch included Tampa Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, Mexico. The Tropical Storm Warning included Cozumel. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the Cuban Province. of Pinar del Rio. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Englewood to Chokoloskee, Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Isle of Youth.

Tropical Storm Idalia did not change a lot on Sunday afternoon. A few more thunderstorms developed near the low level center of circulation. The low level center of circulation was meandering around inside of a larger counterclockwise rotation over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea. There were bands of showers and thunderstorms in the larger counterclockwise circulation. The thunderstorms in the larger circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the low level center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Idalia will be in an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Idalia will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will be under an upper level ridge over the Yucatan Channel. The winds are weak in the upper level ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, much of the air moving around the western side of Tropical Storm Idalia will pass over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. Some of the air in the eastern side of the Idalia will pass over western Cuba. The flow of air over land will inhibit intensification, but it probably will not prevent intensification. Tropical Storm Idalia could intensify slowly during the next 12 hours. Idalia could intensify more quickly on Monday when it moves over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Idalia is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane by Monday night

.Tropical Storm Idalia will be in a region where the steering currents are weak during the next 12 hours. Idalia may not move much during that time period. A high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean will start to steer Idalia toward the north on Monday. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Idalia will move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. could start to turn Idalia toward the northeast later on Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Idalia will drop heavy rain over parts of the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Idalia is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the west coast of Florida. Idalia is likely to make landfall in an area where high storm surges can occur. Idalia could cause a storm surge of up to 11 feet (3.3 meters) near where the center makes landfall. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the portion of the coast from Chokoloskee to Indian Pass, Florida. The Storm Surge Watch includes Tampa Bay.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Franklin was over the Atlantic Ocean southwest of Bermuda. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Franklin was located at latitude 25.9°N and longitude 70.0°W which put it about 535 miles (855 km) southwest of Bermuda. Franklin was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

TD 10 Strengthens to Tropical Storm Idalia

Former Tropical Depression Ten strengthened to Tropical Storm Idalia over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea east of the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was located at latitude 19.9°N and longitude 85.8°W which put it about 80 miles (130 km) east-southeast of Cozumel. Idalia was moving toward the east at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (60 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, Mexico. The Tropical Storm Warning included Cozumel. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the Cuban Province. of Pinar del Rio. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Isle of Youth.

A NOAA research aircraft found sustained tropical storm force winds in former Tropical Depression Ten on Sunday morning and the U.S. National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Idalia. There was a low level center of circulation meandering around inside of a larger counterclockwise rotation over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thunderstorm activity fluctuated near the low level center of circulation. There were few thunderstorms currently near the low level center. There were bands of showers and thunderstorms in the larger counterclockwise circulation. The thunderstorms in the larger circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (50 km) from the low level center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Idalia will be in an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical depression will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will be under an upper level ridge over the Yucatan Channel. The winds are weak in the upper level ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, much of the air moving around the western side of Tropical Storm Idalia will pass over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. Some of the air in the eastern side of the Idalia will pass over western Cuba. The flow of air over land will inhibit intensification, but it probably will not prevent intensification. Tropical Storm Idalia could intensify slowly on Sunday. Idalia could intensify to a hurricane early next week when it moves over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Idalia will be in a region where the steering currents are weak during the next 12 hours. Idalia may not move much during the rest of Sunday. A high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean will start to steer Idalia toward the north on Monday. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Idalia Ten will move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday.

Tropical Storm Idalia will drop heavy rain over parts of the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Franklin continued to strengthen over the Atlantic Ocean south-southwest of Bermuda. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Franklin was located at latitude 25.1°N and longitude 69.3°W which put it about 565 miles (905 km) south-southwest of Bermuda. Franklin was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 971 mb.

Tropical Depression Ten Forms over the Yucatan Channel

Tropical Depression Ten formed over the Yucatan Channel on Saturday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located at latitude 21.1°N and longitude 86.1°W which put it about 65 miles (105 km) northeast of Cozumel. The tropical depression was stationary. The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, Mexico. The Tropical Storm Warning included Cozumel. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the Cuban Provinces of Pinar del Rio and Isle of Youth.

A low pressure system over the Yucatan Peninsula exhibited more organization on Saturday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated it as Tropical Depression Ten. The circulation around Tropical Depression Ten was still organizing. There was a weak center of circulation at the surface. Radar images from western Cuba indicated that there was a stronger circulation in the middle troposphere. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center started to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Ten will be in an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical depression will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will be under an upper level ridge over the Yucatan Channel. The winds are weak in the upper level ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, much of the air moving around the western side of Tropical Depression Ten will pass over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. Some of the air in the western side of the tropical depression will pass over western Cuba. The flow of air over land will inhibit intensification, but it probably will not prevent intensification. Tropical Depression Ten could intensify slowly on Sunday.

Tropical Depression Ten will be in a region where the steering currents are weak during the next 24 hours. Tropical Depression Ten may not move much on Sunday. A high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean will start to steer the tropical depression toward the north early next week. Tropical Depression Ten is likely to strengthen when it moves over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Depression Ten will drop heavy rain over parts of the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Franklin strengthened over the Atlantic Ocean south-southwest of Bermuda. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Franklin was located at latitude 23.8°N and longitude 67.5°W which put it about 610 miles (980 km) south-southwest of Bermuda. Franklin was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Ida Rapidly Intensifies to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Ida rapidly intensified to a hurricane early on Friday afternoon near the Isle of Youth, Cuba. At 1:10 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Ida was located at latitude 21.4°N and longitude 82.4°W which put it about 30 miles (50 km) east-southeast of the Isle of Youth, Cuba. Ida was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cameron, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border. The Hurricane Watch included New Orleans, Lake Ponchartrain and Lake Maurepas. Hurricane Warnings were in effect for the Cuba provinces of the Isle of Youth, Pinar del Rio and Artemisa. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane flying through former Tropical Storm Ida early on Friday afternoon found that Ida had strengthened to a hurricane. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Ida and an eye was apparent on weather radars in Cuba. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms near the core of Ida generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Ida. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Ida.

Hurricane Ida will move through an environment that will be increasingly favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours.  Hurricane Ida will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30˚C.  Ida will move across the Isle of Youth and western Cuba during the next 12 hours. The intensification process is likely to slow when the center of Ida is over land and Ida could even weaken a little.  An upper level ridge will be over the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.  The winds will be weak in the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Ida will strengthen when the center moves over the Gulf of Mexico. Ida is likely to undergo a period of rapid intensification during the weekend that will cause it to strengthen to a major hurricane.  Ida could reach Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Sunday.

Hurricane Ida will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that extended from the Atlantic Ocean to the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  The high will steer Ida toward the northwest during the next 48 hours.  As mentioned above, on its anticipated track Tropical Storm Ida will move across the Isle of Youth and western Cuba on during the next 12 hours. Ida will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to western Cuba. Ida is likely to approach the coast of Louisiana as a major hurricane on Sunday.  Ida will be capable of causing major damage when it approaches the coast. It could cause a storm surge of up to 10 to 14 feet (3 to 4 meters). A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the coast from Sabine Pass to the Alabama/Florida border. The Storm Surge Watch includes Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay. Mandatory and voluntary evacuations have been announced for parts of southeastern Louisiana. Ida probably will not be as strong or as large as Hurricane Laura was last year.  Ida could be a little bigger and a little stronger than Hurricane Delta was when it approached Louisiana in 2020.

Tropical Storm Ida Strengthens

Reconnaissance planes found Friday morning that Tropical Storm Ida had strengthened over the Northwest Caribbean Sea. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located at latitude 20.3°N and longitude 81.7°W which put it about 115 miles (185 km) southeast of the Isle of Youth, Cuba. Ida was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cameron, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border. The Hurricane Watch included New Orleans, Lake Ponchartrain and Lake Maurepas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Cayman Islands. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border.

Two reconnaissance planes flying through Tropical Storm Ida on Friday morning found that the sustained wind speed had increased and the minimum surface pressure had decreased. The planes also found that the circulation around Ida was more organized.  Thunderstorms were forming near the center of Ida.  Storms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease.  The decreasing pressure resulted in the generation of more force which produced higher wind speeds.  More thunderstorms were also forming in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Ida. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Ida.

Tropical Storm Ida will move into an environment that will become increasingly favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours.  An upper level low over the southeast U.S. was producing southerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Ida’s circulation.  Those winds were causing some vertical wind shear.  However, the upper low was moving away from Ida and the low was weakening.  The wind shear will decrease as the upper low weakens.  Tropical Storm Ida will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30˚C.  Ida will continue to intensify today.  Tropical Storm Ida could strengthen to a hurricane during the next 24 hours. Ida will move across western Cuba this evening, which could briefly slow the intensification process.  An upper level ridge will be over the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.  The winds will be weak in the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Ida is likely to undergo a period of rapid intensification during the weekend that will cause it to strengthen to a major hurricane.  Ida could reach Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Ida will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that extended from the Atlantic Ocean to the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  The high will steer Ida toward the northwest during the next 48 hours.  As mentioned above, on its anticipated track Tropical Storm Ida will move across western Cuba on Friday evening. Ida will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to western Cuba. Ida is likely to approach the coast of Louisiana as a major hurricane on Sunday.  Ida will be capable of causing major damage when it approaches the coast. It could cause a storm surge of up to 10 to 14 feet (3 to 4 meters). A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the coast from Sabine Pass to the Alabama/Florida border. The Storm Surge Watch includes Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay. Ida probably will not be as strong or as large as Hurricane Laura was last year.  Ida could be a little bigger and a little stronger than Hurricane Delta was when it approached Louisiana in 2020.