Tag Archives: Mexico

Hurricane Simon Stalls Just West of Mexico

Hurricane Simon stalled just west of Mexico on Monday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Simon was located at latitude 20.2°N and longitude 106.8°W which put the center about 75 miles (120 km) west of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  Simon was moving toward the west-northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Las Islas Marias.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Corrientes to Bahia Tempehuaya, Mexico.  The Hurricane Watch includes Puerto Vallarta.

Hurricane Simon weakened gradually as it stalled on Monday.

Even though Hurricane Simon weakened on Monday, a very small circular eye was still present at the center of Simon’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Simon’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Simon generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Monday.

The circulation around Hurricane Simon was very small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of Simon’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Hurricane Simon.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Simon is 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 4.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 20.9.  Hurricane Simon is similar in intensity to Hurricane Idalia when Idalia hit Florida in 2023.  Simon is smaller than Idalia was.

Hurricane Simon will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Simon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, Hurricane Simon will pull some drier air that is over Mexico into its circulation because Simon will remain very close to Mexico.  The drier air will inhibit the formation of new thunderstorms in the eastern and northern parts of Simon’s circulation.  Hurricane Simon is likely to continue to weaken gradually on Tuesday because of the effects of the drier air.  Simon could intensify on Wednesday when it is little farther away from the coast of Mexico.

Hurricane Simon will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Simon slowly toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the core of Hurricane Simon will pass west of the Islas Marias on Tuesday night.

The core of Hurricane Simon will pass west of Las Islas Marias on Tuesday night.  Simon will bring strong winds and heavy rain to those islands on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Flash floods are likely to occur in some locations.  Hurricane Simon could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along parts of coast of Las Islas Marias.

Hurricane Simon Stays Just West of Mexico

The core of Hurricane Simon stayed just to the west of the west coast of Mexico on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Simon was located at latitude 19.6°N and longitude 105.8°W which put the center about 55 miles (90 km) south of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.   Simon was moving toward the north-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to El Roblito, Mexico.  The Hurricane Warning includes Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Las Islas Marias.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from El Roblito to Tempehuaya, Mexico.

Hurricane Simon was a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Sunday afternoon.

A circular eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) was at the center of Hurricane Simon.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Simon’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Simon generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Sunday.

The circulation around Hurricane Simon was very small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Simon’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Hurricane Simon.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Simon is 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 8.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 33.3. Hurricane Simon is similar in intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.  Simon is smaller than Harvey was.

Hurricane Simon will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Simon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, Hurricane Simon is likely to pull some drier air that is over Mexico into its circulation because Simon will remain very close to Mexico.  The drier air will inhibit the formation of new thunderstorms in the eastern and northern parts of Simon’s circulation.  Hurricane Simon is likely to weaken on Monday because of the effects of the drier air.

Hurricane Simon will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Simon toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the core of Hurricane Simon will remain just to the west of Mexico on Monday.  The center of Simon’s circulation will pass just to the west of Cabo Corrientes on Sunday night.  The core of Hurricane Simon will be near Las Islas Marias on Monday afternoon.

Bands in the eastern side of Hurricane Simon will continue to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the west coast of Mexico.  The strongest winds and heaviest rains will occur in Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

The core of Hurricane Simon will pass near Las Islas Marias on Monday afternoon.  Simon will bring strong winds and heavy rain to those islands.  Flash floods are likely to occur in some locations.  Hurricane Simon could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along parts of coast of Las Islas Marias.

Hurricane Simon Nears Western Mexico

Powerful Hurricane Simon was nearing the west coast of Mexico on Saturday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Simon was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 104.8°W which put the center about 100 miles (160 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.   Simon was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 932 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to El Roblito, Mexico.  The Hurricane Warning includes Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Las Islas Marias.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico.

Hurricane Simon intensified to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Saturday.

The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the existing eye and eyewall on Saturday.  Concentric eyewalls were at the center of Hurricane Simon.  The inner eyewall had a diameter of 14 miles (22 km).  The outer eyewall had a diameter of 40 miles (65 km).

Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Simon’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Simon generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Simon was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Simon’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Hurricane Simon.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Simon is 31.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 8.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 40.1.  Hurricane Simon is bigger and stronger than Hurricane Charley was when Charley hit southwest Florida in 2004.

Hurricane Simon will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Simon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Simon could weaken during the next few hours if an eyewall replacement cycle occurs, even though Simon is in a favorable environment.

Hurricane Simon will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Simon toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Simon will be near Manzanillo on Sunday morning.

Hurricane Simon will be a major hurricane when it hits the west coast of Mexico.  Simon will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the west coast of Mexico.  The strongest winds and heaviest rains will occur in Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Hurricane Simon could cause a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters) along parts of the west coast of Mexico.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Rachel was moving quickly toward northern Baja California.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was located at latitude 27.0°N and longitude 118.3°W which put the center about 255 miles (415 km) southwest of Punta Baja, Mexico.  Rachel was moving toward the north-northeast at 30 m.p.h. (48 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Eugenia, Mexico to the Mexico/U.S. border.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Isla San Luis to Puerto Penasco, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from the U.S./Mexico border to the San Diego County/Orange County line in California.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Isla San Luis to Bahia de Los Angeles, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Libertad to Puerto Penasco, Mexico.

Simon Intensifies to a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Simon intensified to a major hurricane as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Friday.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Simon was located at latitude 16.8°N and longitude 104.6°W which put the center about 155 miles (250 km) south of Manzanillo, Mexico.   Simon was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita, Mexico.  The Hurricane Warning includes Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Mita to El Roblito, Mexico.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Las Islas Marias.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico.

Hurricane Simon intensified to a major hurricane on Friday.

A very small eye formed at the center of Hurricane Simon.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Simon’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Simon generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Simon was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Simon’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Hurricane Simon.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Simon is 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 6.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 28.2.

Hurricane Simon will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Simon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Simon will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Simon could intensify rapidly at times.  Hurricane Simon could strengthen to a Category 5 hurricane on Saturday.

Hurricane Simon will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Simon toward the north during the next 24 hours.  Hurricane Simon will approach the west coast of Mexico between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes on Saturday.

Hurricane Simon is likely to be a major hurricane when it hits the west coast of Mexico.  Simon will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the west coast of Mexico.  The strongest winds and heaviest rains will occur in Jalisco and Nayarit.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Hurricane Simon could cause a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters) along parts of the west coast of Mexico.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Rachel started to move toward Baja California.  Tropical Storm Watches and Tropical Storm Warnings were issued for parts of southern California, the northern part of Baja California and northwestern Mexico.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was located at latitude 23.8°N and longitude 123.3°W which put the center about 720 miles (1160 km) south-southwest of San Diego, California.  Rachel was moving toward the northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from San Jose de Las Palomas, Mexico to the Mexico/U.S. border.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Isla San Luis to Puerto Penasco, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from the U.S./Mexico border to the San Diego County/Orange County line in California.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Isla San Luis to Bahia de Los Angeles, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Libertad to Puerto Penasco, Mexico.

Simon Strengthens to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Simon strengthened to a hurricane on Thursday evening as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Simon was located at latitude 15.6°N and longitude 104.6°W which put the center about 235 miles (380 km) south of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Simon was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico.

Former Tropical Storm Simon strengthened to a hurricane on Friday evening.

Tall thunderstorms formed near the center of Hurricane Simon.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Simon’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Simon generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Simon was small.  The strongest winds were occurring in the northeastern part of Simon’s circulation.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles in the northeastern quadrant of Simon.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Hurricane Simon.

Hurricane Simon will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Simon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Simon will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Simon could intensify rapidly at times.  Hurricane Simon could strengthen to a major hurricane on Friday.

Hurricane Simon will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Simon toward the north during the next 24 hours. Hurricane Simon will approach the west coast of Mexico on Saturday.

Hurricane Simon is likely to be a major hurricane when it hits the west coast of Mexico.  Simon will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the west coast of Mexico.  The strongest winds and heaviest rains will occur in Jalisco and Nayarit.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Hurricane Simon could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along parts of the west coast of Mexico.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Rachel continued to weaken gradually west of Baja California.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was located at latitude 22.6°N and longitude 125.5°W which put the center about 995 miles (1600 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  Rachel was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Storm Simon Forms South of Mexico

Tropical Storm Simon formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Simon was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 101.6°W which put the center about 175 miles (285 km) south-southeast of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico.  Simon was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico strengthened on Wednesday and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Simon.

Tropical Storm Simon exhibited better organization on Wednesday afternoon.  More thunderstorms were forming near the center of Simon’s circulation.  More thunderstorms also started to develop in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Simon.  Storms near the center of Simon began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass cause the surface pressure to start to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northeastern part of Tropical Storm Simon.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Simon’s circulation.  The winds in the other parts of Tropical Storm Simon were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Simon will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Simon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that is over Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Simon’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Simon will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Simon will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Simon toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  Simon will start to move toward the north on Friday when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Simon could approach the west coast of Mexico on Saturday.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Rachel was still spinning west of Baja California.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Rachel was located at latitude 21.2°N and longitude 122.3°W which put the center about 800 miles (1290 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  Rachel was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Depression Strengthens to Tropical Storm Isaias

Former Tropical Depression Nine strengthened to Tropical Storm Isaias over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico early on Wednesday.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located at latitude 22.0°N and longitude 94.1°W which put the center about 285 miles (460 km) west of Progreso, Mexico.  Isaias was moving toward the east-northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Former Tropical Depression Nine strengthened to Tropical Storm Isaias early on Wednesday.

More thunderstorms were developing near the center of Tropical Storm Isaias.  More thunderstorms were also occurring in bands that were revolving around the center of Isaias’ circulation.  Storms near the center of Isaias generated more upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Tropical Storm Isaias.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles in the northern half of Isaias’ circulation.  The winds in the southern half of Tropical Storm Isaias were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Isaias will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Isaias will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Gulf of Mexico. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Isaias will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Isaias could intensify rapidly.  Tropical Storm Isaias could strengthen to a hurricane by Wednesday night.

An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. and the Gulf of Mexico will steer Tropical Storm Isaias toward the east-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Isaias will move closer to the northwestern part of the Yucatan Peninsula.  A different upper level trough approaching from the Southern Plains west will start to steer Isaias toward the north on Wednesday night.  Tropical Storm Isaias could reach the northern Gulf Coast by Friday night.

Tropical Storm Isaias is likely to be a hurricane when it reaches the northern Gulf Coast.  Isaias could be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast.

A Hurricane Watch will likely be issued for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast later today.

Tropical Depression Forms over Southwest Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Depression Nine formed over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located at latitude 22.1°N and longitude 95.6°W which put the center about 380 miles (615 km) west of Progreso, Mexico.  The tropical depression was moving toward the east at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation formed within a cluster of thunderstorms that was over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Nine.

New thunderstorms were forming near the center of Tropical Depression Nine.  Thunderstorms were also developing in bands that were revolving around the center of the tropical depression.  Storms near the center of the depression started to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to start to decrease.

Tropical Depression Nine will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that is over the Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical depression.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent that intensification.  Tropical Depression Nine will intensify to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.  It could strengthen to a hurricane later this week.

An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. and the Gulf of Mexico will steer Tropical Depression Nine toward the east during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Nine will move closer to the northwestern part of the Yucatan Peninsula.  A different upper level trough approaching from the west will start to steer the tropical depression toward the north later this week.

Rachel Intensifies to a Hurricane Southwest of Mexico

Former Tropical Storm Rachel intensified to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Tuesday night.

At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Rachel was located at latitude 17.8°N and longitude 107.6°W which put the center about 220 miles (350 km) southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.   Rachel was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Playa, Perula, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.

Former Tropical Storm Rachel intensified to a hurricane on Tuesday night.  Tall thunderstorms formed near the center of Hurricane Rachel.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Rachel’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Rachel generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the eastern side of Hurricane Rachel.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the eastern side of Rachel’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Hurricane Rachel.

Hurricane Rachel will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rachel will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Rachel will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Rachel could intensify rapidly at times.  Hurricane Rachel could strengthen to a major hurricane during the next day or so.

Hurricane Rachel will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over northern Mexico.  The high pressure system will Rachel toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Rachel will move parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico.

Bands in the eastern periphery will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of southwestern Mexico on Wednesday.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere, Former Hurricane Nolo weakened to a tropical storm far to the west of Hawaii.

At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Nolo was located at latitude 22.2°N and longitude 164.8°W which put the center about 150 miles (240 km) southeast of French Frigate Shoals.  Nolo was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef.

Hurricane Polo Hits Sonora

Hurricane Polo hit Sonora on Tuesday morning after crossing the southern part of Baja California on Monday night.

At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Polo was located at latitude 26.9°N and longitude 111.7°W which put the center about 90 miles (145 km) south-southwest of Guaymas, Mexico.  Polo was moving toward the northeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the west coast of Baja California from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe, Mexico.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the east coast of Baja California from  Loreto to Bahia San Juan Bautista, Mexico.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bahia Kino to Huatabampito, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Loreto to San Evaristo, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Huatabampito to Topolobampo, Mexico.

A large upper level trough over the western U.S. was producing strong southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Hurricane Polo.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  Those winds were also blowing the upper part of Polo’s circulation to the northeast of the lower level circulation.  The upper part of Hurricane Polo was already over Sonora.  The lower part of Polo’s circulation was near the coast south of Guaymas.

Hurricane force winds extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of the surface circulation around Hurricane Polo.  Tropical storm force winds extended out 90 miles from the center of the surface circulation.

The upper level trough over the western U.S. will steer Hurricane Polo toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Polo will move across northern Mexico toward New Mexico.

The strong vertical wind shear and the mountains in northern Mexico will cause the surface circulation around Hurricane Polo to weaken quickly.  The upper part of Hurricane Polo could reach southern New Mexico on Tuesday night.

Hurricane Polo will continue to produce strong winds and heavy rain over Sonora during the next few hours.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.

Hurricane Polo could also drop locally heavy rain over parts of northern Mexico and New Mexico.

Flood Watches are in effect for much of New Mexico.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Rachel was gradually getting better organized.

At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was located at latitude 15.1°N and longitude 104.8°W which put the center about 370 miles (595 km) south of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.   Rachel was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Playa, Perula, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.