Ewiniar Rapidly Intensifies to a Typhoon East of Luzon

Former Tropical Storm Ewiniar rapidly intensified to a typhoon east of Luzon on Sunday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Ewiniar was located at latitude 15.2°N and longitude 122.5°E which put it about 125 miles (200 km) east-northeast of Manila, Philippines. Ewiniar was moving toward the northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 966 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Ewiniar rapidly intensified to a typhoon after it moved east of Luzon on Sunday. A very small eye with a diameter of 5 miles (8 km) formed at the center of Typhoon Ewiniar. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Ewiniar’s circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Typhoon Ewiniar was small. Winds to typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Ewiniar’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.

Typhoon Ewiniar will move through an environment that will be very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ewiniar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31°C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ewiniar’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the southwest and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Ewiniar is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours. Ewiniar could continue to intensify rapidly. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could interrupt the intensification.

Typhoon Ewiniar will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is east of the Philippines. The high pressure system will steer Ewiniar toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Typhoon Ewiniar will move farther away from Luzon during the next 24 hours. Ewiniar will pass southeast of the Ryukyu Islands during the early part of next week.

Typhoon Ewiniar will continue to produce strong winds and locally heavy rain in Luzon until it moves farther to the northeast. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Remal Approaches Bangladesh

Tropical Cyclone Remal was approaching the coast of Bangladesh and West Bengal on Sunday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Remal was located at latitude 20.7°N and longitude 88.9°E which put it about 155 miles (250 km) south-southeast of Kolkata, India. Remal was moving toward the north at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Remal was strengthening as it approached the coast of Bangladesh and West Bengal on Sunday morning. Even though Remal was getting stronger, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Remal’s circulation. Bands in the northern part of Tropical Cyclone Remal consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Remal’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Remal was large. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 190 miles (305 km) from the center of Remal’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Remal will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Remal will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over South Asia and the Bay of Bengal. The winds are weak near the axis off the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Remal is likely to intensify during the next 12 hours. The large circulation around Remal could cause intensification to occur slowly.

Tropical Cyclone Remal formed along the leading edge of a surge of humid air moving north in the monsoonal flow over the Bay of Bengal. The monsoonal flow will continue to steer Remal north during the next 12 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Remal will reach the northern coast of the Bay of Bengal in 12 hours. The center of Remal is likely to make landfall near the western border between India and Bangladesh.

Tropical Cyclone Remal will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Bangladesh and adjacent parts West Bengal. Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations. Remal could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the coast of Bangladesh.

Tropical Storm Ewiniar Strengthens Near Manila

Tropical Storm Ewiniar strengthened near Manila on Saturday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Ewiniar was located at latitude 14.3°N and longitude 121.4°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) southeast of Manila, Philippines. Ewiniar was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Former Tropical Depression 01W strengthened over southern Luzon on Saturday night and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Ewiniar. The circulation around Tropical Storm Ewiniar was very symmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring near the center of Ewiniar’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center of Ewiniar generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Ewiniar was relatively small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Ewiniar’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Ewiniar will move through an environment that will be mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ewiniar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31°C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Ewiniar’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Even though part of the circulation around Tropical Storm Ewiniar will pass over Luzon, Ewiniar is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Ewiniar will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is east of the Philippines. The high pressure system will steer Ewiniar toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Ewiniar will move along the east coast of Luzon during the next 24 hours. Ewiniar will start to move toward the northeast on Monday after is moves around the western end of the high pressure system.

Tropical Storm Ewiniar will continue to produce strong winds and locally heavy rain in Luzon during the next 24 hours. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Ewiniar could also produce a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the east coast of Luzon where the wind blows the water toward the shore.

Tropical Cyclone Remal Forms over Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone Remal formed over the Bay of Bengal on Saturday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Remal was located at latitude 19.1°N and longitude 89.4°E which put it about 110 miles (175 km) south-southeast of Kolkata, India. Remal was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A low pressure system over the Bay of Bengal strengthened on Saturday and the India Meteorological Department designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Remal. The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone Remal was asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Remal’s circulation. Bands in the northern part of Tropical Cyclone Remal consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Remal’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Remal was large. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of Remal’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Remal will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Remal will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over South Asia and the Bay of Bengal. The winds are weak near the axis off the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Remal will intensify during the next 24 hours. The large circulation around Remal could cause intensification to occur slowly.

Tropical Cyclone Remal formed along the leading edge of a surge of humid air moving north in the monsoonal flow over the Bay of Bengal. The monsoonal flow will continue to steer Remal north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Remal will approach the northern coast of the Bay of Bengal in 24 hours. The center of Remal is likely to make landfall between Kolkata, India and Chittagong, Bangladesh.

Tropical Cyclone Remal will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Bangladesh and adjacent parts West Bengal. Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations. Remal could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the coast of Bangladesh.

Tropical Depression 01W Brings Wind and Rain to Samar

Tropical Depression 01W brought wind and rain to Samar in the Philippines on Friday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression 01W was located at latitude 11.6°N and longitude 125.1°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) northeast of Tacloban, Philippines. The tropical depression was moving toward the north-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A low pressure system over Samar in the Philippines strengthened on Friday. Both the Japan Meteorological Agency and the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center classified the system as a tropical depression. The center of Tropical Depression 01W was over Samar. Thunderstorms were occurring near the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Depression 01W. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression 01W will move through an environment that will be mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31°C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical depression. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. Even though Tropical Depression 01W will move through a mostly favorable environment, it will not intensify until the center moves back over water.

Tropical Depression 01W will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is east of the Philippines. The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression 01W will move across Samar during the next few hours. It will move across southeastern Luzon on Saturday.

Tropical Depression 01W will continue to drop heavy rain on Samar. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. The tropical depression will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to southeastern Luzon and Catanduanes Island on Saturday. Flash floods could also occur in those locations. Tropical Depression 01W will also cause rough seas in the areas around Samar and southeastern Luzon.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy Weakens Near Kenya and Somalia

Tropical Cyclone Ialy weakened near the coast of Kenya and Somalia on Wednesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy was located at latitude 2.9°S and longitude 42.7°E which put it about 200 miles (320 km) northeast of Mombasa, Kenya and about 170 miles (275 km) south of Kismayo, Somalia. Ialy was moving toward the northeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Westerly winds blowing around the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Ialy pulled drier air from east Africa into its circulation. The drier air was pulled around Ialy’s circulation and some of the drier air reached the center of Ialy. The drier air caused many of the thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone Ialy to dissipate. Some thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the eastern part of Ialy’s circulation. Upper level divergence decreased when the thunderstorms dissipated. The decrease in upper level divergence caused mass to accumulate at the surface and the surface pressure increased. Tropical Cyclone Ialy weakened rapidly during Tuesday night when the surface pressure increased. Ialy weakened from the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon to the equivalent of a tropical depression.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ialy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, the drier air will continue to be pulled from east Africa into Ialy’s circulation. The drier air will cause the remaining thunderstorms to dissipate. Tropical Cyclone Ialy will to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours. The circulation around Ialy could dissipate during the next day or so.

As the remaining thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Ialy dissipate, Ialy will be steered by winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the equatorial Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ialy slowly toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center Tropical Cyclone Ialy will remain off the coast of northern Kenya and southern Somalia. Ialy could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Ialy strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon near the coast of Kenya and southern Somalia on Tuesday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy was located at latitude 4.3°S and longitude 42.9°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) east of Mombasa, Kenya. Ialy was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy strengthened on Tuesday morning and Meteo France La Reunion indicated that Ialy had intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon. The center of Ialy’s circulation was at latitude 4.3°S, which demonstrates again that it is possible for a strong tropical cyclone to occur near the Equator if the environment is favorable. There is no record of another tropical cyclone occurring where Ialy is located in databases going back to 1945.

A band of thunderstorms wrapped around the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy. Some satellite images showed evidence of a small eye at the center of Ialy’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Ialy was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move into an environment that will be more unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ialy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, Tropical Cyclone Ialy is likely to pull drier air from east Africa toward its circulation. So far, the drier air has remained outside of Ialy’s circulation, but the drier air could start to inhibit formation of thunderstorms in the northern part of Ialy. Tropical Cyclone Ialy is likely to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the equatorial Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ialy toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move toward the coast of northern Kenya and southern Somalia.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy could bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coastal sections of northern Kenya and southern Somalia. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Ialy could also cause a storm surge of up to seven feet (two meters) along the coast of northern Kenya and southern Somalia.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy Moves Southeast of Kenya

Tropical Cyclone Ialy moved southeast of Kenya on Monday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy was located at latitude 5.5°S and longitude 43.7°E which put it about 235 miles (380 km) east-southeast of Mombasa, Kenya. Ialy was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy exhibited a more symmetrical structure on Monday morning. Showers and thunderstorms were occurring in all quadrants of Ialy’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to remain low.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move into an environment that will be more unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ialy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, Tropical Cyclone Ialy is likely to start to pull drier air from east Africa toward its circulation. The drier air could start to inhibit formation of thunderstorms in the northern part of Ialy’s circulation. Tropical Cyclone Ialy is likely to weaken slowly during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ialy toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Ialy will remain south of Kenya.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy Churns East of Tanzania

Tropical Cyclone Ialy churned over the South Indian Ocean east of Tanzania on Sunday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy was located at latitude 7.2°S and longitude 45.1°E which put it about 405 miles (650 km) east of Dar es Salaam, Tanzaniar. Ialy was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

The core of Tropical Cyclone Ialy was completely surrounded by drier air, but the drier air had not penetrated the core by Sunday morning. Thunderstorms were still occurring in the inner ends of bands near the center of Ialy’s circulation. The outer portions of bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Ialy’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move into an environment that will be more unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ialy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, the drier air surrounding the core of Ialy’s circulation will inhibit formation of thunderstorms. Tropical Cyclone Ialy is likely to start to weaken during the next 24 hours after the drier air penetrates the core of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ialy toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Ialy will remain east of Tanzania. Ialy could move east of Kenya on Monday.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy Spins North of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Ialy continued to spin over the South Indian Ocean north of Madagascar on Saturday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy was located at latitude 7.7°S and longitude 47.7°E which put it about 305 miles (490 km) north-northwest of Antsiranana, Madagascar. Ialy was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The vertical wind shear decreased during Friday night and Saturday morning, and Tropical Cyclone Ialy intensified a little more. Drier air was pulled around the eastern side of Ialy’s circulation and the distribution of thunderstorms remained asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Ialy. Thunderstorms were also occurring near the center of Ialy’s circulation. Bands in the eastern part of Tropical Cyclone Ialy consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Thunderstorms near the center of Ialy generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move into an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ialy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However, an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ialy’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. In addition, the drier air in the eastern side of Ialy’s circulation will inhibit formation of thunderstorms in that region. Tropical Cyclone Ialy is likely to start to weaken slowly during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ialy slowly toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Ialy will remain move farther north of Madagascar. Ialy is likely to remain northeast of the Aldabra Islands.