Tropical Cyclone Ialy Moves North of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Ialy moved north of Madagascar on Friday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy was located at latitude 8.7°S and longitude 50.1°E which put it about 225 miles (360 km) north-northeast of Antsiranana, Madagascar. Ialy was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

After strengthening a little on Thursday, Tropical Cyclone Ialy began to move into a less favorable environment on Friday. Ialy moved under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge produced northeasterly winds that blew toward the top of Ialy’s circulation. Those winds caused the vertical wind shear to increase. The wind shear also allowed drier air to wrap closer around the northern and eastern sides of the center of Tropical Storm Ialy.

The effects of more vertical wind shear and the drier air was beginning to affect the structure of Tropical Cyclone Ialy. Thunderstorms were still occurring near the center of Ialy’s circulation. Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the southern and western parts of Tropical Cyclone Ialy. Bands in the northern and eastern parts of Ialy’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The northeasterly winds in the upper levels were inhibiting upper level divergence. Less mass was being removed from Tropical Cyclone Ialy and the surface pressure was slowly increasing.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ialy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However, the upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean will produce moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear will continue to allow drier air to be pulled closer to the center of Ialy’s circulation. Tropical Cyclone Ialy is likely to weaken slowly during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ialy slowly toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Ialy will remain north of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy Forms Northeast of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Ialy formed over the South Indian Ocean northeast of Madagascar on Thursday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy was located at latitude 9.1°S and longitude 52.4°E which put it about 300 miles (485 km) northeast of Antsiranana, Madagascar. Ialy was moving toward the southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean near northern Madagascar strengthened on Thursday and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Ialy. The flow of air around Tropical Cyclone Ialy appeared to be pulling drier air into the northern part of its circulation. The distribution of thunderstorms around Ialy was asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern part of Tropical Cyclone Ialy. Bands in the northern part of Ialy’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern and western sides of the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy. Storms near the center or circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ialy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, the drier air in the northern part of Ialy’s circulation could inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Ialy is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours unless the drier air gets pulled into the center of its circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ialy slowly toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move north of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya Makes Landfall in Tanzania

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya made landfall in Tanzania on Saturday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Hidaya was located at latitude 7.5°S and longitude 38.4°E which put it about 40 miles (650 km) south of the Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Hidaya was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya made landfall on the coast of Tanzania south of Dar es Salaam on Saturday. The center of Hidaya’s circulation crossed the coast near Kisiju. Tropical Cyclone Hidaya was the equivalent of a tropical storm at the time of landfall. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of Hidaya’s circulation. Tropical Cyclone Hidaya brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the southeastern part of Tanzania.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean and southern Africa. The high pressure system will steer Hidaya toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will move farther inland over southern Tanzania.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will weaken rapidly as it moves farther inland. Hidaya will move into a region of drier air which will cause it to weaken rapidly as it moves inland. Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will continue to produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain over parts of southern Tanzania during the next 24 hours. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya Nears Tanzania

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya neared the coast of Tanzania on Friday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Hidaya was located at latitude 7.8°S and longitude 40.5°E which put it about 125 miles (200 km) southeast of the Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Hidaya was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya started to weaken on Friday as it approached the coast of Tanzania. Westerly winds blowing around the northern side of Hidaya’s circulation pulled drier air that was over Africa into the tropical cyclone. The drier air circulated around the northern and eastern parts of Tropical Cyclone Hidaya. When the drier air reached rainbands in those parts of Hidaya’s circulation, some of the thunderstorms weakened. When the thunderstorms weakened, the upper level divergence decreased. Less mass was pumped away from the tropical cyclone and the surface pressure started to increase.

Even though Tropical Cyclone Hidaya started to weaken, its circulation was still well organized. A small circular eye was evident at the center of Hidaya’s circulation in infrared satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a narrow ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were still occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Hidaya. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Hidaya’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will move through an environment that will become more unfavorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Hidaya will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will pull more drier air that is currently over Africa into its circulation as it moves closer to the coast of Tanzania. The drier air is likely to cause more thunderstorms to weaken, which will further decrease the upper level divergence. The surface pressure will continue to increase as the upper level divergence decreases. Tropical Cyclone Hidaya is likely to continue to weaken during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the Hidaya toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will approach the coast of Tanzania near Dar es Salaam in 12 hours. Hidaya will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to eastern Tanzania. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Hidaya will also bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Zanzibar and Mafia Island. Tropical Cyclone Hidaya could also produce a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the coast of Tanzania.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean east of Tanzania on Thursday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Hidaya was located at latitude 8.7°S and longitude 43.0°E which put it about 295 miles (475 km) east-southeast of the Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Hidaya was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya rapidly intensified from the equivalent of a tropical storm to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Thursday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Hidaya’s circulation. A circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Hidaya. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Hidaya. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Hidaya was symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Hidaya’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Hidaya.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Hidaya will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Hidaya is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours. Hidaya could continue to intensify rapidly and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the Hidaya toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will move toward the coast of Tanzania. Hidaya could approach the coast near Dar es Salaam on Saturday. Hidaya could bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to eastern Tanzania. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Hidaya could also produce a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast of Tanzania.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya Develops East of Tanzania

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya developed over the South Indian Ocean east of Tanzania on Wednesday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Hidaya was located at latitude 8.6°S and longitude 45.0°E which put it about 2250 miles (360 km) north-northeast of the Comoros. Hidaya was moving toward the west at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A former tropical depression over the South Indian Ocean north-northeast of Comoros strengthened on Wednesday and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Hidaya. Thunderstorms were occurring near the center of Hidaya’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center of Hidaya generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Hidaya.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Hidaya will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the western end of the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Hidaya is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the Hidaya toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will move north of Comoros on Thursday. Hidaya will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Comoros. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Hidaya could approach the coast of Africa near southern Tanzania and northern Mozambique later this week.

Tropical Depression Forms Northeast of Comoros

A tropical depression formed over the South Indian Ocean northeast of Comoros on Tuesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of a tropical depression was located at latitude 7.7°S and longitude 45.0°E which put it about 250 miles (400 km) northeast of the Comoros. The tropical depression was moving toward the southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean northeast of Comoros exhibited more organization on Tuesday morning and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as a tropical depression. More thunderstorms formed near the center of the tropical depression. Thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

The tropical depression will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the western end of the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. The tropical depression is likely to intensify to the equivalent of a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

The tropical depression will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the tropical depression will move over Comoros on Wednesday. It will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Comoros. Locally heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. The tropical depression could approach the coast of Africa near southern Tanzania and northern Mozambique later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Paul Weakens

Tropical Cyclone Paul weakened over the Coral Sea on Thursday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Paul was located at latitude 15.2°S and longitude 156.5°E which put it about 325 miles (525 km) southeast of the Tagula Island. Paul was moving toward the east at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Paul strengthened earlier on Thursday when it was in a more favorable environment. Then an upper level trough near the east coast of Australia began to produce strong west-northwesterly winds that blew across the top of Paul’s circulation. Those winds caused the vertical wind shear to increase. The stronger vertical wind shear blew the tops off of many of the thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Paul. A few thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southeastern part of Paul’s circulation. Bands in the other parts of Tropical Cyclone Paul consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Paul.

Tropical Cyclone Paul will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Paul will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. However, the upper level trough near eastern Australia will continue to produce strong west-northwesterly winds that will blow across the top of Paul’s circulation. Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear will cause Paul to continue to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Paul will be steered by the winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere because of the strong vertical wind shear. Paul will move around the northern side of high pressure system over the Southwest Pacific Ocean and eastern Australia. The high pressure system will steer Paul toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Paul will weaken over the Coral Sea.

Tropical Cyclone Paul Forms over Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Paul formed over the Coral Sea on Wednesday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Paul was located at latitude 13.8°S and longitude 154.3°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) south-southeast of the Tagula Island. Paul was moving toward the south-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A low pressure system over the Coral Sea southeast of New Guinea strengthened on Wednesday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Paul. More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Cyclone Paul. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern side of the center of Paul’s circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Paul. The circulation around Paul was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Paul’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Paul will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Paul will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. An upper level trough over eastern Australia will produce west-northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Paul’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Paul could intensify during the next 24 hours despite the wind shear. The vertical wind shear is forecast to increase on Friday. Paul will start to weaken when the wind shear increases.

Tropical Cyclone Paul will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours. Tropical Cyclone Paul will not move much during the next day or so. A high pressure system over the Southwest Pacific Ocean and eastern Australia is likely to start to steer Paul toward the west on Friday. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Paul will eventually start to move toward the northern Cape York Peninsula.

Elsewhere, a weakening Tropical Cyclone Olga was passing near Exmouth, Australia. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Olga was located at latitude 21.4°S and longitude 114.3°E which put it about 85 miles (135 km) north-northeast of the Exmouth, Australia. Olga was moving toward the southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb. A weather station on Barrow Island reported a sustained wind speed of 37 m.p.h. (59 km/h) and a wind gust of 45 m.p.h. (72 km/h).

Tropical Cyclone Olga Continues to Weaken

Tropical Cyclone Olga continued to weaken on Tuesday as it moved over the South Indian Ocean north of Western Australia. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Olga was located at latitude 19.3°S and longitude 115.8°E which put it about 265 miles (435 km) north-northeast of the Exmouth, Australia. Olga was moving toward the south-southwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean west of Australia continued to produce strong northwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Olga’s circulation. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear. The strong upper level winds blew the tops off of most of the thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Olga. There were still a few thunderstorms in bands in the southeastern periphery of Olga’s circulation. Bands in the other parts of Tropical Cyclone Olga consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The strong vertical wind shear also caused the pattern of wind speeds around Tropical Cyclone Olga to be asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the southern half of Olga’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the northern half of Tropical Cyclone Olga.

Tropical Cyclone Olga will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Olga will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However, the upper level trough west of Australia will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Olga to continue to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Olga will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high pressure system will steer Olga toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Olga will be north of Exmouth in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Olga was already bringing gusty winds to the area around Barrow Island. A weather station on Barrow Island reported a sustained wind speed of 36 m.p.h. (58 km/h) and a wind gust of 46 m.p.h. (74 km/h).