Hurricane Idalia strengthened to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Tuesday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Idalia was located at latitude 26.1°N and longitude 84.8°W which put it about 195 miles (310 km) southwest of Tampa, Florida. Idalia was moving toward the north at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to the middle of Longboat Key, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included Tampa Bay. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary’s River, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina. The Hurricane Watch included Charleston, South Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Chokoloskee to the middle of Longboat Key, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to Mexico Beach, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Surf City, North Carolina. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Lower Florida Keys west of Seven Mile Bridge. A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Surf City, North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border. The Tropical Storm Watch included Pamlico Sound and Albemarle Sound.

Hurricane Idalia intensified steadily during Tuesday afternoon. A circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) was at the center of Idalia’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Idalia’s circulation. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Idalia grew larger when Idalia intensified. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Idalia’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) in the eastern side of Hurricane Ida. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles in the western side of Ida’s circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Ida was 16.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 24.5.

Hurricane Idalia will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Idalia will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move into a region between an upper level ridge over the Yucatan Peninsula and an upper level trough over the central U.S. The upper level winds are weaker between the ridge and the trough and there will be little vertical wind shear during the next 12 hours. The upper level winds will be stronger when Idalia moves closer to the upper level trough on Wednesday morning. Hurricane Idalia will intensify during the next 12 hours. Idalia could rapidly intensify at times. Hurricane Idalia is likely to strengthen to a major hurricane.

Hurricane Idalia will move around the western end of high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system and the upper level trough over the central U.S. will steer Idalia toward the north-northeast during the next 12 hours. The upper level trough will turn Idalia toward the northeast on Wednesday. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Idalia will likely to make landfall on the coast of the northeast Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday morning. Idalia is likely to make landfall as a major hurricane.

Hurricane Idalia is forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Florida. Idalia could be similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Dennis when Dennis hit Northwest Florida in 2005. Hurricane Idalia is likely to make landfall in an area where high storm surges can occur. Idalia could cause a storm surge of up to 15 feet (4.5 meters) near where the center makes landfall. A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the portion of the coast from Englewood to Indian Pass, Florida. The Storm Surge Warning includes Tampa Bay. Hurricane Idalia will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of central and northern Florida. Idalia will be capable of causing major damage over parts of northern and northeastern Florida. Widespread outages of electricity are likely. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Strong winds and heavy rain will spread over eastern Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina when Idalia moves toward the northeast. Flood Watches are in effect for parts of northern Florida, eastern Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Franklin was west of Bermuda. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Franklin was located at latitude 31.4°N and longitude 69.9°W which put it about 305 miles (490 km) west of Bermuda. Franklin was moving toward the northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Bermuda.