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Zeta Intensifies to a Hurricane, Watches Issued for Gulf Coast

Former Tropical Storm Zeta intensified into a hurricane over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Monday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Zeta was located at latitude 19.5°N and longitude 86.0°W which put it about 90 miles (145 km) southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Zeta was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Tulum to Dzilam, Mexico and the warning included Cancun and Cozumel. A Hurricane Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Morgan City, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border. The Hurricane Watch included New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Punta Allen to Tulum, Mexico and from Dzilam to Progresso. Tropical Storm Watches were issued for the portions of the coast from Intracoastal City to Morgan City, Louisiana and from the Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, Florida.

Former Tropical Storm Zeta intensified quickly into a hurricane on Monday. More thunderstorms formed near the center of circulation and the circulation became more symmetrical. Storms that formed near the center of Hurricane Zeta generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease, which contributed to the increase in wind speed. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center in the northeast quadrant of Zeta. The winds in the other quadrants were blowing at less than hurricane force. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) in the eastern half of Hurricane Zeta. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the western half of Zeta.

Hurricane Zeta will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours and it could strengthen more. Zeta will move across the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday night. It will likely weaken while the center passes over land. Hurricane Zeta will move over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Zeta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C when it reaches the Gulf.  It will be under the western part of an upper level ridge where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Zeta is likely to intensify on Tuesday. An upper level trough over the southwestern U.S. will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Hurricane Zeta. Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear and Zeta could weaken when it moves over the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Zeta will move around the western end of a ridge of high pressure. The ridge will steer Zeta toward the northwest on Monday and Tuesday. On its anticipated track Hurricane Zeta will pass over the northeastern tip of Yucatan Peninsula on Monday night. Zeta will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the northeastern Yucatan. It will also cause a storm surge of 4 to 7 feet (1 to 2 meters) along the coast where the wind blows the water toward the shore. Hurricane Zeta will move more toward the north on Wednesday when it moves around the western end of the ridge. Zeta could approach the coast of southeast Louisiana on Wednesday afternoon. Zeta is likely to still be a hurricane when it approaches the Gulf Coast

Tropical Storm Zeta Strengthens over Northwest Caribbean

Tropical Storm Zeta strengthened over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Sunday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located at latitude 18.1°N and longitude 83.8°W which put it about 260 miles (425 km) southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Zeta was moving toward the north-northwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The government of Mexico issued a Hurricane Warning for the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos and for Cozumel. The Hurricane Warning included Cancun. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Zeta strengthened during Sunday, but the distribution of thunderstorms was still asymmetrical. The stronger thunderstorms were mostly occurring in bands in the southern half of Zeta. Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Despite the asymmetrical structure, thunderstorms near that center of circulation generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease, which caused the wind speed to increase. Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Zeta. The winds on the western side of Zeta were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Zeta will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Zeta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will be under an upper level ridge where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Zeta will intensify during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen to a hurricane. Zeta could weaken if the center passes over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula.

A ridge of high pressure will strengthen to the northeast of Tropical Storm Zeta on Monday. The ridge will steer Zeta toward the northwest on Monday and Tuesday. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Zeta could pass near the northeastern tip of Yucatan Peninsula on Monday night. Zeta could be a hurricane when it reaches the Yucatan. Zeta will move more toward the north on Wednesday when it moves around the western end of the ridge. Zeta could reach the central coast of the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday afternoon.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Epsilon made a transition to a powerful extratropical cyclone east of Newfoundland. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was located at latitude 48.6°N and longitude 38.8°W which put it about 675 miles (1090 km) east-northeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Epsilon was moving toward the northeast at 46 m.p.h. (74 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

TD 28 Strengthens to Tropical Storm Zeta

Tropical Depression Twentyeight strengthened to Tropical Storm Zeta over the northwestern Caribbean Sea early on Sunday. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located at latitude 17.8°N and longitude 83.8°W which put it about 275 miles (445 km) southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Zeta was nearly stationary. The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

The government of Mexico issued a Hurricane Watch for the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos and for Cozumel. The Hurricane Watch included Cancun. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.

Based on data from a NOAA airplane and a scatterometer on a satellite, the National Hurricane Center determined that Tropical Depression Twentyeight had strengthened to Tropical Storm Zeta over the northwestern Caribbean Sea early on Sunday morning. The circulation around Zeta was still not well organized. The circulation in the middle troposphere was located to the east of the surface center. The lower level circulation seemed to be shifting closer to the middle level circulation and it was possible that a new center could be developing under the middle level rotation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the middle level center. Storms near that center were generating upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Data from the airplane indicated that winds to tropical storm force were occurring southeast of the center of Zeta. The tropical storm force winds extended out about 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Zeta.

Tropical Storm Zeta will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Zeta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will be under an upper level ridge where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  If Zeta remains stationary for another 12 to 24 hours, its winds will mix cooler water to the surface, which could interrupt intensification. Tropical Storm Zeta will intensify during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen to a hurricane early next week.

Tropical Storm Zeta will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 12 to 24 hours. Zeta could meander over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during that time. A ridge of high pressure will strengthen to the northeast of Tropical Storm Zeta later on Sunday. The ridge will steer Zeta toward the northwest on Monday and Tuesday. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Zeta could pass near the northeastern tip of Yucatan Peninsula on Monday evening.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Epsilon was passing south of Newfoundland. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located at latitude 42.8°N and longitude 53.7°W which put it about 270 miles (435 km) south of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Epsilon was moving toward the northeast at 30 m.p.h. (48 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

Hurricane Delta Clips Northeast Yucatan, Watches Issued for U.S.

Hurricane Delta clipped the northeastern corner of the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday morning and watches were issued for portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast.  At 11:00 a.m EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Delta was located at latitude 21.4°N and longitude 88.0°W which put it about 65 miles (105 km) west-southeast of Cabo Catoche, Mexico.  Delta was moving toward the northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Tulum to Dzilam, Mexico including Cozumel.  A Hurricane Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from High Island, Texas to Grand Isle, Louisiana.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of coast from Punta Herrero to Tulum, Mexico and from Dzilam to Progreso, Mexico.  Tropical Storm Watches were issued for the portions of the coast from San Luis Pass to High Island, Texas and from Grand Isle, Louisiana to Bay St. Louis, Mississippi including New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

Hurricane Delta brought strong winds and locally heavy rain to the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and the island of Cozumel on Wednesday morning.  The center of Delta officially made landfall on the coast about 20 miles (30 km) south of Cancun, Mexico.  A weather station in Cancun reported a sustained wind speed of 84 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and a wind gust of 106 m.p.h. (170 km/h).

Hurricane Delta weakened during Tuesday night before it made landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula.  It appeared as though an eyewall replacement cycle occurred in Hurricane Delta.  The original small eyewall, which had a diameter of 4 miles (6 km) weakened.  Since the strongest winds were occurring in that eyewall, the wind speeds decreased when it weakened.  Microwave satellite imagery suggested that a new, larger eye was developing at the center of Delta when it made landfall.

The eyewall replacement cycle also caused the size of the circulation around Hurricane Delta to increase.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center of Delta.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Delta was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size (Index (HWISI) was 28.0.  Delta was capable of causing regional serious damage.

Hurricane Delta will move through an environment favorable for intensification when it moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico.  Delta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge.  The upper level winds are weaker in that part of the ridge and there will be less vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Delta is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.  An upper level trough over the south central U.S. will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of Delta on Friday.  Those winds winds cause more vertical wind shear and Delta will likely weaken when it approaches the Gulf Coast.

Hurricane Delta will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Delta toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  Hurricane Delta will move more toward the north on Thursday when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system.  The upper level trough over the south central U.S. will turn Delta toward the north-northeast on Friday.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Delta will approach the coast of Louisiana on Friday.  Delta could be near the threshold for a major hurricane when it approaches the coast.

Hurricane Delta will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Louisiana on Friday.  The wind will push water toward the coast.  A storm surge of 10 to 15 feet (3 to 5 meters) could occur in some locations.

Delta Rapidly Intensifies to a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Delta rapidly intensified into a major hurricane over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Delta was located at latitude 18.2°N and longitude 82.6°W which put it about 320 miles (520 km) east-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico.  Delta was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Tulum to Dzilam, Mexico including Cancun and Cozumel.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Cayman Islands, the Isle of Youth and Pinar del Rio, Cuba.  Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the portions of the coast from Punta Herrero to Tulum and from Dzilam to Progreso, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for La Habana, Cuba.

Hurricane Delta rapidly intensified into a major hurricane on Tuesday morning.  A small eye with a diameter of six miles (10 km) was at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolving around the core of Delta.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease rapidly which contributed to the rapid intensification of Hurricane Delta.

The circulation around Hurricane Delta was relatively small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Delta.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Delta was 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 7.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 32.7.

Hurricane Delta will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours.  Delta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Delta is likely to continue to intensify rapidly during the next 12 hours.  It could reach Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Hurricane Delta will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Delta toward the northwest during the next 48 hours.  Hurricane Delta will move more toward the north on Thursday when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Delta will reach the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday night.  Delta will bring damaging winds and locally heavy rain to area around Cancun and Cozumel.  Hurricane Delta will then move over the Gulf Mexico.  Delta could approach the coast of Louisiana on Friday night.  It could bring hurricane conditions to New Orleans on Saturday.

Delta Rapidly Strengthens into a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Delta rapidly strengthened into a hurricane on Monday.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Delta was located at latitude 16.5°N and longitude 79.6°W which put it about 220 miles (355 km) south-southeast of Grand Cayman.  Delta was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Pinar del Rio, Cuba and for the portion of the coast from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, Mexico including Cancun and Cozumel.  Hurricane Watches were in effect for Isle of Youth and Artemisa, Cuba.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Cayman Islands.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for La Habana, Cuba.

Delta strengthened from a tropical depression into a hurricane on Monday.  An elliptical eye with a diameter of 18 miles (29 km) formed at the center of Hurricane Delta.  The eye was surrounded by ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Delta.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center o circulation.  Winds to tropical storm extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center.

Hurricane Delta will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours.  Delta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Delta will continue to intensify and it could strengthen into a major hurricane within 24 hours.

Hurricane Delta will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Delta toward the northwest during the next 48 hours.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Delta will be near Cancun and Cozumel in about 24 hours.  Delta could be a major hurricane at that time.  Hurricane Delta will move more toward the north when it moves around the western end of the high on Thursday.  Delta could approach the central Gulf Coast on Thursday night.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Gamma was weakening just north of the Yucatan Peninsula.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Gamma was located at latitude 22.1°N and longitude 88.1°W which put it about 115 miles (185 km) east-northeast of Progreso, Mexico.  Gamma was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Delta Develops South of Jamaica

Former Tropical Depression Twentysix strengthened into Tropical Storm Delta south of Jamaica on Monday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Delta was located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 78.4°W which put it about 65 miles east of the Mouth of the Mississippi River and about 130 miles south of Negril, Jamaica.  Delta was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the Isle of Youth, Pinar del Rio and Artemisa, Cuba.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Cayman Islands.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for La Habana, Cuba.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of former Tropical Depression Twentysix on Monday morning and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Delta.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Delta was still organizing.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Delta.  The strongest rainbands were in the southern half of the circulation.  Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass allowed the pressure to decrease, which caused the wind speed to increase.

Tropical Storm Delta will move through an environment which will be very favorable for intensification.  Delta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30˚C.  It will move under an upper level ridge where the winds are weak.  There will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Delta will intensify and it could strengthen into a hurricane by Tuesday night.  Once an inner core with an eye and an eyewall develops, Delta could intensify rapidly.  There is a chance Tropical Storm Delta could strengthen into a major hurricane.

Tropical Storm Delta will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Delta toward the northwest during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Delta could reach the Cayman Islands on Monday night.  Delta could be near the western end of Cuba by Tuesday night and it is likely to be a hurricane at that time.  Delta could approach the central Gulf Coast on Thursday night.  It could be a major hurricane when it approaches the Gulf Coast.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Gamma weakened as it meandered north of the Yucatan Peninsula.  Strong southerly winds in the upper levels blew the top off of Tropical Storm Gamma on Sunday night.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located at latitude 22.6°N and longitude 87.5°W which put it about 165 miles (270 km) east-northeast of Progreso, Mexico.  Gamma was moving toward the south-southwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cancun to Dzilam, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coat from Dzilam to Campeche, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Gamma Emerges over Southern Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Storm Gamma emerged over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located at latitude 22.4°N and longitude 88.0°W which put it about 120 miles (195 km) east-northeast of Progreso, Mexico.  Gamma was moving toward the north at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect from Cancun to Dzilam, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect from Dzilam to Progreso, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Gamma emerged over the Gulf of Mexico north of the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday.  The circulation around Gamma was relatively intact after its passage over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula.  Thunderstorms persisted near the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Gamma.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the north of the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Gamma.

Tropical Storm Gamma will be in an environment that will become less favorable for intensification.  Gamma will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is 30°C.  So, there will be sufficient energy to support intensification.  However, Tropical Storm Gamma will be under the western end of an upper level ridge centered over the Bahamas.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of Gamma.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and they could be strong enough to blow the upper part of Gamma north of the circulation in the lower levels.

Northward movement of Tropical Storm Gamma is likely to be blocked by a ridge which will form in the middle troposphere over the northern Gulf  of Mexico.  After it forms, that ridge is likely to steer Gamma slowly toward the west or west-southwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Gamma will move slowly toward the west-southwest and it will remain just north of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Tropical Storm Gamma Brings Wind and Rain to Yucatan

Tropical Storm Gamma brought wind and rain to the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located at latitude 20.4°N and longitude 87.6°W which put it about 15 miles (25 km) north-northwest of Tulum, Mexico.  Gamma was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Allen to Cancun, Mexico including Cozumel.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Punta Herrero to Punta Allen and from Cancun to Dzilam, Mexico.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the portions of the coast from Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya and from Dzilam to Progreso, Mexico.

The center of Tropical Storm Gamma made landfall on the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula near Tulum around midday on Saturday.  Gamma strengthened quickly over the warm water in the Northwest Caribbean Sea in the hours prior to landfall.  An eye was beginning to form at the center of Tropical Storm Gamma at the time of landfall.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the developing eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Gamma.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Gamma will weaken while the center of circulation moves over land.  When Gamma emerges over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, it will move into an environment favorable for intensification.  Gamma will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will be under the western side of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Gamma.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but they are not likely to be strong enough to keep Gamma from strengthening when it gets back over water.

Tropical Storm Gamma will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Gamma toward the north-northwest during next 24 hours.  A large, cool high pressure system over the eastern U.S. will block the northward movement of Tropical Storm Gamma when it reaches the southern Gulf of Mexico.  That high pressure system will steer Gamma slowly toward the west during the earl part of next week.

On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Gamma will move across northern Quintana Roo and the state of Yucatan.  Gamma will cause gusty winds along the eastern and northern coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula.  Tropical Storm Gamma will drop heavy rain over parts of Quintana Roo and Yucatan.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

TD 25 Strengthens into Tropical Storm Gamma

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters’ reconnaissance plane found Friday evening that former Tropical Depression 25 had strengthened into Tropical Storm Gamma.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located at latitude 18.8°N and longitude 85.8°W which put it about 135 miles (220 km) southeast of Cozumel, Mexico.  Gamma was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche, Mexico.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the portions of the coast from Punta Herrero tp Puerto Costa Maya and from Cabo Catoche to Dzilam, Mexico.

A reconnaissance airplane found winds to tropical storm force and a lower minimum surface pressure when it started sampling former Tropical Depression Twentyfive.  The National Hurricane  Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Gamma based on data from the plane. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern and southern parts of the center of circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Gamma.  Storms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease.

Tropical Storm Gamma will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours.  Gamma will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move under an upper level ridge over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Gamma will strengthen during the next 18 hours and it could strengthen to a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Gamma will move around the southwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer the depression toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Gamma could approach the northeast coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday.  Gamma will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula.  Gusty winds and heavy rain could occur in the area around Cancun and Cozumel.  Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.