Tag Archives: Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Sarai Forms Northwest of Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Sarai formed northwest of Fiji on Thursday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Sarai was located at latitude 14.9°S and longitude 175.8°E which put it about 220 miles (355 km) north-northwest of Nadi, Fiji.  Sarai was moving toward the south at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system northwest of Fiji exhibited greater organization on Thursday and the Fiji Meteorological Service designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Sarai.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Sarai was still organizing.  A band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the southern and western sides of the center of circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing and the bands were starting to revolve around the center.  Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Sarai was large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Sarai will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours.  Sarai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce northerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  However, there will be northerly winds at most levels of the troposphere, which means that there will not be a lot of vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Sarai will intensify during the next 36 to 48 hours and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Sarai will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Sarai toward the south during the next 24 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Sarai will turn more toward the east in a day or so when it rounds the end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track the center of Sarai could approach western Fiji in 24 to 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Rita Develops North of Vanuatu

Tropical Cyclone Rita developed over the South Pacific Ocean north of Vanuatu on Sunday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Rita was located at latitude 11.5°S and longitude 169.4°E which put it about 455 miles (730 km) north of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Rita was moving toward the south-southeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

A center of circulation in an area of low pressure north of Vanuatu exhibited greater organization on Sunday and the system was designated Tropical Cyclone Rita.  Rita had a distinct low level center of circulation.  A band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the western and northern sides of the center.  Other rainbands were revolving around the center of circulation.  Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Rita will move through an environment relatively favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rita will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will produce northerly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent Tropical Cyclone Rita from getting stronger.  Rita could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 hours.

The ridge over the South Pacific Ocean will steer Tropical Cyclone Rita toward the south during several days.  On its anticipated track the center to Rita could approach Vanuatu in 48 to 72 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Pola Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Pola strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Wednesday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Pola was located at latitude 20.2°S and longitude 177.6°W which put it about 170 miles (275 km) west-northwest of Nuku’alofa, Tonga.  Pola was moving toward the south-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

There was a small, circular eye at the center of Tropical Cyclone Pola.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Storms near the core of Pola were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Pola.  The strongest rainbands were occurring in the northwestern half of the circulation.  Bands in the southeastern half of Pola consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 40 miles (65 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 160 miles (260 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Pola will move through an environment favorable for support a strong tropical cyclone for another day or so.  Pola will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will not be much vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Pola could strengthen during the next 24 hours.  Pola will stat to move over cooler water on Thursday.  An upper level trough will approach Tropical Cyclone Pola from the west.  The trough will produce northwesterly winds which will increase the vertical wind shear.  A combination of cooler water and more vertical wind shear will cause Pola to weaken.  Tropical Cyclone Pola could make a transition to an extratropical cyclone later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Pola will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge over the South Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Pola toward the south-southwest during the next day or two.  Eventually, the upper level trough will turn Tropical Cyclone Pola toward the southeast.  On its anticipated track the core of Pola and the strongest winds will pass west of Tonga.  Rainbands on the eastern side of the circulation could bring gusty winds and heavy rain at times to parts of Tonga.

Elsewhere, Typhoo Wutip continued to weaken west-northwest of the Marianas.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Wutip was located at latitude 16.3°N and longitude 139.4°E which put it about 370 miles (595 km) west-northwest of Guam.  Wutip was moving toward the north-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Pola Organizes Quickly Between Fiji and Tonga

Tropical Cyclone Pola organized quickly between Fiji and Tonga on Tuesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Pola was located at latitude 18.8°S and longitude 176.7°W which put it about 185 miles (295 km) north-northwest of Nuku’alofa, Tonga.  Pola was moving toward the south at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 55 m.p.h. (90 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

A well organized low level center of circulation consolidated within a much larger area of showers and thunderstorms north of Tonga on Tuesday and the Fiji Meteorological Service classified the system as Tropical Cyclone Pola.  A small circular eye was beginning to appear at the center of circulation on some satellite images.  The eye was surrounded by a narrow ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Storms near the center of Pola were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Pola.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 175 miles (280 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Pola will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Pola will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Pola will intensify during the next day or so and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.  Pola will move over colder water and into a region where the upper level winds are stronger later this week and it will start to weaken at that time.

Tropical Cyclone Pola will move around the northwestern portion of a subtropical ridge over the South Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Pola in a southward direction.  On its anticipated track the core and strongest part of Tropical Cyclone Pola will pass west of Tonga.  The outer rainbands on the western side of the circulation could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southeastern Fiji.  Rainbands on the eastern side of the circulation could also bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Tonga.

Elsewhere, Typhoon Wutip was weakening west of the Marianas.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Wutip was located at latitude 15.7°N and longitude 139.9°E which put it about 345 miles (560 km) west-northwest of Guam.  Wutip was moving toward the north at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Mona Turns Back Toward Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Mona turned back toward Fiji on Saturday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mona was located at latitude 14.9°S and longitude 179.2°E which put it about 250 miles (400 km) north of Suva, Fiji.  Mona was moving toward the east-southeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

After being strongly sheared and making a slow clockwise loop on Friday, Tropical Cyclone Mona resumed a course toward Fiji on Saturday.  An upper level trough west of Fiji was producing northwesterly winds which were blowing toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Mona.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and they were also causing the distribution of thunderstorms around Mona to be asymmetrical.  The strongest thunderstorms and winds were occurring in bands southeast of the center of circulation.  Bands in the other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Cyclone Mona will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Mona will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  The upper level trough west of Fiji will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear which will inhibit development.  Tropical Cyclone Mona could strengthen a little bit on Sunday, but it is likely to remain close to its current intensity.

The upper trough will steer Tropical Cyclone Mona toward the south-southeast during the next 12 hours.  The trough is forecast to cutoff and make a transition to an upper low.  The low will steer Mona more toward the south between 12 and 36 hours into the future.  Tropical Cyclone Mona will turn more toward the southwest on Monday.  On its anticipated track the center of Mona will pass near the northeastern end of Vanua Levu in about 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Mona will bring wind and rain to Vanua Levu and the eastern islands of Fiji.  Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Penny was moving over the Coral Sea back toward Queensland.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Penny was located at latitude 17.2°S and longitude 154.8°E which put it about 605 miles (980 km) east of Cairns.  Penny was moving toward the southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Mona Stalls North of Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Mona stalled north of Fiji on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mona was located at latitude 13.3°S and longitude 176.3°E which put it about 365 miles (590 km) north-northwest of Suva, Fiji.  Mona was moving toward the north-northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Northerly winds blowing around the western end of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean strengthened on Friday.  Those upper level winds blew across the top of Tropical Cyclone Mona and they caused strong vertical wind shear.  The wind shear blew the upper portion of the circulation south of the circulation in the lower and middle levels of Tropical Cyclone Mona.  As a result, Mona was steered by the winds lower in the atmosphere, which caused it to stall.

New thunderstorms were redeveloping near the center of Tropical Cyclone Mona.  However, many of the bands revolving around the center of Mona still consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The strong upper level winds were shearing the tops off of many of the thunderstorms that developed.  The upper level winds were also preventing the storms near the center of circulation from generating upper level divergence.

Tropical Cyclone Mona could intensify if the upper level winds weaken.  Mona will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level ridge will continue to produce northerly winds, but those winds are forecast to weaken a little during the weekend.  If the upper level winds weaken and the vertical wind shear lessens, the Tropical Cyclone Mona could strengthen.  However, if the stronger upper level winds persist, then Mona could weaken further.

Tropical Cyclone Mona will meander north of Fiji as long as the wind shear prevents the development of a core of taller thunderstorms.  If Mona strengthens as forecast, then the upper level ridge will steer the tropical cyclone toward the south.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Mona could approach Fiji in about 48 hours.  Some guidance is suggesting the Mona could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon at that time.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Penny was meandering over the Coral Sea.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Penny was located at latitude 15.9°S and longitude 155.8°E which put it about 670 miles (1080 km) east of Cairns,, Australia.  Penny was moving toward the north at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Mona Forms North of Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Mona formed north of Fiji on Wednesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mona was located at latitude 11.6°S and longitude 178.1°E which put it about 460 miles (745 km) north of Suva, Fiji.  Mona was moving toward the south-southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation formed within an area of thunderstorms north of Fiji and the Fiji Meteorological Service designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Mona.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Mona was still organizing.  There was a small cluster of thunderstorms around the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were forming and those bands were revolving around the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Mona will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next two days.  Mona will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move around the western end of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce northerly winds which will cause some vertical wind shear.  The shear will inhibit strengthening, but it will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Mona will intensify during the next 36 to 48 hours and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

The upper level ridge will steer Tropical Cyclone Mona toward the south-southeast during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Mona could approach Fiji in 36 to 48 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Mona could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it nears Fiji.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Penny was reorganizing over the Coral Sea east of Queensland.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Penny was located at latitude 14.2°S and longitude 152.2°E which put it about 470 miles (760 km) east-northeast of Cairns, Australia.  Penny was moving toward the east-southeast at 24 m.p.h. (39 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Keni Brings Winds and Rain to Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Keni brought wind and rain to Fiji on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Keni was located at latitude 19.4°S and longitude 178.0°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) west-southwest of Suva, Fiji.  Keni was moving toward the east-southeast at 21 m.p.h. (34 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Keni intensified rapidly on Monday into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.  A primary rainband wrapped tightly around the center of circulation and a small eye formed at the center.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Keni.  The strongest bands were east and south of the center of circulation.  Storms in the core of Keni were generating upper level divergence which was pumping away mass to the east of the tropical cyclone.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 155 miles (250 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Keni will remain in an environment favorable for intensification for about another 12 to 18 hours.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  Keni is moving under the southwestern portion of an upper level ridge which is producing northwesterly winds which blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds were causing some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification during the next few hours.  Tropical Cyclone Keni will move under strong upper level winds in about 12 to 18 hours and then the wind shear will increase.  Increased wind shear will cause Keni to start to weaken.

The ridge is steering Tropical Cyclone Keni toward the east-southeast and that general motion is expected to continue for another 12 to 18 hours.  An upper level trough approaching from the west will steer Keni more toward the southeast after that time.  On its anticipated track the core and strongest part of Tropical Cyclone Keni will pass southwest of Fiji.  However, clockwise flow around Keni will continue to cause gusty winds and drop heavy rain on Fiji.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods.  Keni could bring wind and rain to Tonga in 18 to 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Keni Forms East of Vanuatu

Tropical Cyclone Keni formed east of Vanuatu on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Keni was located at latitude 16.9°S and longitude 172.0°E which put it about 215 miles (350 km) east of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Keni was moving toward the east-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A distinct center of circulation consolidated in an area of showers and thunderstorms between Vanuatu and Fiji on Sunday and the Fiji Meteorological Service designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Keni.   The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Keni organized quickly.  Several bands of thunderstorms wrapped part of the way around the center of circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Keni will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Keni will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It is under a small upper level ridge and the upper level winds are weak.  So, there will be little vertical wind shear on Monday.  Tropical Cyclone Keni will intensify during the next 24 hours and it could become the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Keni on the southwestern edge of a subtropical ridge which is steering Keni toward the east-southeast.  A general motion toward the east-southeast is expected to continue for another 24 to 36 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Keni could be approaching Fiji within 24 hours.  Keni could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it near Fiji.  Keni will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Fiji.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Iris Redevelops East of Queensland.

Tropical Cyclone Iris redeveloped east of Queensland on Sunday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Iris was located at latitude 16.9°S and longitude 148.7°E which put it about 190 miles (310 km) east of Cairns, Australia.  Iris was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Iris formed over the Coral Sea last week but wind strong vertical shear quickly weakened Iris into an area of low pressure.  The low pressure system meandered over the Coral Sea east of Australia during the past few days.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation on Sunday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Iris again.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Iris was still reorganizing on Sunday night.  A distinct low level center of circulation was evident on visible satellite images.  More thunderstorms were developing near the center.  A primary rainband wrapped around the northern, eastern and southern sides of the center of circulation.  Bands northwest of the center consisted mainly of showers and low clouds.  Storms near the core of the circulation generated upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the east of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Iris will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification on Monday.  Iris will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is 29°C.  It is moving around the western end of an upper level ridge.  The ridge is producing northwesterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and they may have been the reason for the lack of strong rainbands northwest of the center of circulation.  The wind shear is likely to inhibit intensification, but it probably won’t prevent Tropical Cyclone Iris from intensifying on Monday.

Tropical Cyclone Iris was moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which was steering Iris toward the southwest.  Iris will likely move more toward the south and then southeast as it rounds the western end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Iris is expected to remain east of Queensland.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean Tropical Cyclone Josie was swirling south of Fiji.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Josie was located at latitude 21.1°S and longitude 178.1°E which put it about 185 miles (300 km) south of Suva, Fiji.  Josie was moving toward the south-southeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.