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Tropical Storm Meari Reorganizes West of Guam

The circulation designated as Tropical Storm Meari reorganized west of Guam on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Meari was located at latitude 15.0°N and longitude 139.0°E which put it about 415 miles (670 km) west of Guam.  Meari was moving toward the north-northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Storm Meari initially formed as a smaller counterclockwise circulation within a much broader cyclonic circulation that stretched from the Northern Mariana Islands toward the Philippines.  The initial surface center weakened on Thursday and a new center of circulation organized northeast of the original center.  A primary rainband began to wrap around the southern and east side of the low level center.  Numerous other bands of showers and thunderstorms were forming within the broader cyclonic circulation.  More bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing southwest of the new center and fewer bands were northeast of the center.  The new center of circulation is still consolidating and Tropical Storm Meari still does not have a well developed core.

Although Meari is still not well organized, the tropical storm is moving through an environment that is favorable for intensification.  Tropical Storm Meari is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge is located over Tropical Storm Meari and the upper level winds are weak.  So, there is little vertical wind shear.  Warm water and little shear should allow Tropical Storm Meari to continue to intensify.  The lack of a well formed inner core and the large broad cyclonic circulation will slow the rate of strengthening.

The reformation of the center of circulation farther toward the northeast caused the forecast track guidance from numerical models to shift to a more northeasterly track.  If the current center of Tropical Storm Meari persists, it is located near the western end of a subtropical ridge.  Meari is expected to move toward the northeast around the western end of the ridge.  When Meari moves farther north, westerly winds in the middle latitudes will accelerate the tropical storm toward the northeast.

Typhoon Haima Brings Gusty Winds and Rain to China

The large eye of Typhoon Haima neared the coast of China on Thursday and the typhoon was bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the area near Hong Kong.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Haima was located at latitude 22.6°N and longitude 115.6°E which put it about 105 miles (170 km) east of Hong Kong.  Haima was moving toward the northwest at 18 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

After the center of Typhoon Haima moved northwest of Luzon, a large eye reformed at the center of the typhoon.  The diameter of the eye is about 60 miles (95 km).  The eye is surrounded by a thin ring of thunderstorms and multiple rainbands.  Haima is a large typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extend out about 70 miles (110 km) from the center and winds to tropical storm force extend out about 240 miles (390 km) from the center.

Typhoon Haima is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering it toward the northwest.  Haima is expected to turn more toward the north when it reaches the coast of China.  An upper level trough over eastern Asia will begin to steer Haima toward the northeast on Friday.  On its anticipated track the eye of Typhoon Haima will make landfall on the coast of China near Haifeng and Lufeng.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Haima is 13.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 27.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 40.9.  These indices indicate that Typhoon Haima is capable of causing widespread serious wind damage.  Typhoon Haima will also generate a serious storm surge north of where the eye makes landfall and the wind blows the water toward the coast.  Haima will also bring heavy rain and a threat of floods to Guangdong, Jiangxi and Fujian provinces when it moves inland.

Typhoon Haima Producing Strong Winds and Heavy Rain Over Northern Luzon

Typhoon Haima was producing strong winds and heavy rain as it moved across northern Luzon on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Haima was located at latitude 18.2°N and longitude 120.8°E which put it about 10 miles (15 km) east of Laoag, Philippines.  Haima was moving toward the west-northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 946 mb.

The center of Typhoon Haima moved quickly across northern Luzon on Wednesday.  Haima made landfall on northeastern Luzon east of Tuguegarao.  As it moved toward the west-northwest the center of Typhoon Haima passed near Tuao and Dingras.  The center also passed over the Cordillera Central, where it produced very heavy rain in places where the wind was blowing up the slopes of the mountains.

Movement across the mountain ranges in northern Luzon weakened Typhoon Haima and an eye is no longer evident on satellite images.  However, Haima is still a large, powerful typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extend out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 240 miles (390 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Haima is 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 25.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 46.2.  The indices indicate that Typhoon Haima is capable of causing widespread major wind damage.

The core of Typhoon Haima is not as well organized as it was before the typhoon made landfall in Luzon.   Some reorganization of the core could occur when Typhoon Haima moves over the South China Sea.  Haima will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level winds are weak and Typhoon Haima is still producing strong upper level divergence which is pumping mass away in all directions.  Typhoon Haima could restrengthen somewhat or maintain its intensity after the center moves northwest of the Philippines.  When Haima nears the coast of China, it will approach an upper level trough and vertical wind shear will increase.  So, Typhoon Haima is likely to be on a weakening trend when it makes landfall in China.

Typhoon Haima is moving around the western end of subtropical ridge which is steering it toward the west-northwest.  Typhoon Haima is likely to move more toward the northwest after it leaves Luzon and reaches the end of the ridge.  When Typhoon Haima nears the coast of China, it will move under southwesterly winds caused by an upper level trough over China.  Those winds will turn Haima more toward the north.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Haima could make a landfall in China northeast of Hong Kong in about 36 hours.

Typhoon Haima will continue to produce strong winds and heavy rains over parts of northern Luzon for a few more hours until the core of the typhoon moves northwest of that region.  The heavy rain has the potential to cause floods and mudslides.  Although Typhoon Haima is likely to be weakening when it reaches the coast of China, it will still be capable of producing strong winds, heavy rain, floods and a storm surge along the coast.

Typhoon Haima Equal to Cat. 5 Hurricane, Threatens Luzon

Typhoon Haima intensified into the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Tuesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Haima was located at latitude 15.9°N and longitude 128.4°E which put it about 400 miles (640 km) east of northern Luzon.  Haima was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 919 mb.

Typhoon Haima completed an eyewall replacement cycle and it intensified as the outer eyewall contracted.  Haima is a very well organized, symmetrical typhoon.  Haima has a clear circular eye surrounded by a ring of very strong thunderstorms.  Thunderstorms in the core of Typhoon Haima are generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping away large quantities of mass in all directions.  Winds to typhoon force extend out about 65 miles (105 km) from the center.

Typhoon Haima is moving through a very favorable environment.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is very little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Haima is moving on a track that is a little to the north of the track taken by Typhoon Sarika.  This means that the core of Haima is moving north of cooler water mixed to the surface by Typhoon Sarika.  Typhoon Haima could intensify more during the next 12 to 24 hours.  However, if another eyewall replacement cycle occurs, then there could be fluctuations in intensity.

A subtropical ridge is steering Typhoon Haima toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track the core of Typhoon Haima will approach northern Luzon in about 24 hours.  After Haima moves across Luzon it will reach the western end of the ridge and turn more toward the northwest.  Typhoon Haima could be near the coast of China in 72 hours.

Haima is an extremely dangerous typhoon.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Haima is 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 21.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 56.2.  The indices indicate that Typhoon Haima is capable of causing widespread catastrophic wind damage.  In addition Typhoon Haima will produce very heavy rain over northern Luzon including over some locations hit by Typhoon Sarika a few days ago.  The heavy rain will create the potential for flash floods and mudslides.  Haima will also generate a significant storm surge in locations where the wind pushes the water toward the coast.

Super Typhoon Chaba Threatens Japan and South Korea

Super Typhoon Chaba moved north on Monday and it threatened to bring strong winds and heavy rain to Japan and South Korea.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Super Typhoon Chaba was located at latitude 27.5°N and longitude 126.5°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) west-northwest of Okinawa.  Chaba was moving toward the north at 11 m.p.h. (18 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 925 mb.

Typhoon Chaba is a compact well organized storm.  It has a clear circular eye surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  Winds to typhoon force extend out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Additional rainbands are rotating around the core of Typhoon Chaba.  Thunderstorms at the core of Chaba are generating upper level divergence which is pumping mass out in all directions.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Chaba is 33.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 11.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 44.9.  These indices indicate that Typhoon Chaba is stronger, but slightly smaller than Hurricane Matthew which is over the Caribbean Sea.

Although Typhoon Chaba is still in a very favorable environment, it has probably peaked in intensity.  Chaba was the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale earlier today.  Chaba is currently moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 29°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Chaba is likely to weaken gradually during the next 24 hours.  In about a day or so, Chaba will move over cooler SSTs.  In addition, when Chaba moves farther north it will move closer to the upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes.  A combination of cooler SSTs and more vertical wind shear will increase the rate at which Typhoon Chaba will weaken.

Chaba is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering the typhoon toward the north.  That general motion is expected to continue for about another 24 hours.  In about a day or so the westerly winds of the middle latitudes are expected to turn Chaba quickly toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track the core of Typhoon Chaba will pass west of the northern Ryukyu Islands.  Chaba could be near Jeju, South Korea and western Kyushu in 24 hours.

Chaba is a very strong typhoon.  Although it will weaken, Typhoon Chaba will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of South Korea and Japan.

Powerful Typhoon Chaba Passing South of Okinawa

Powerful Typhoon Chaba is passing south of Okinawa.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Chaba was located at latitude 24.5°N and longitude 127.3°E which put it about 180 miles (290 km) south of Okinawa.  Chaba was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 170 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 935 mb.

The circulation of Typhoon Chaba is very well organized.  Chaba has a distinct circular eye surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  Other rainbands are rotating around the core of the circulation.  The thunderstorms in the core are generating upper level divergence which is pumping out mass to the north of Typhoon Chaba.

Typhoon Chaba is moving through a very favorable environment.  Chaba is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Chaba could intensify a little more during the next 12 to 24 hours.  When Chaba moves farther north, an upper level trough over eastern China will cause more vertical wind shear.  Increased wind shear and cooler SSTs will weaken the typhoon.

Typhoon Chaba is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering it toward the northwest.  Chaba will gradually start to move more toward the north.  In about 36 hours the upper level trough over eastern China will begin to steer Typhoon Chaba toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Chaba will move through the Ryukyu Islands southwest of Okinawa during the next 24 hours.  Chaba would be southwest of Kyushu in about 36 hours.

Chaba is a powerful typhoon and it will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the Ryukyu Islands including Okinawa.

Typhoon Chaba Rapidly Intensifies Into the Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Typhoon Chaba intensified rapidly into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Chaba was located at latitude 20.1°N and longitude 131.0°E which put it about 530 miles (855 km) south-southeast of Okinawa.  Chaba was moving toward the northwest at 19 m.p.h. (31 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 957 mb.

The organization of the circulation of Typhoon Chaba improved significantly on Saturday.  It has a small circular eye which is surrounded by a ring of very strong thunderstorms.  Another primary band of thunderstorms wrapped around the western side of the typhoon.  Thunderstorms in the core of Typhoon Chaba produced strong upper level divergence which pumped out enough mass to allow the pressure at the surface to decrease very rapidly during the past 24 hours.

Typhoon Chaba will continue to move in an environment that is very favorable for intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is not much vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Chaba should continue to intensify for another 24 hours and it could reach major typhoon status.

Typhoon Chaba is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering the typhoon toward the northwest.  Chaba should start to move more toward the north when it reaches the western end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Chaba could reach Okinawa in about 36 hours.  It will be a powerful typhoon when it moves through the Ryukyu Islands.

Tropical Storm Chaba Organizes and Moves Toward Okinawa

Tropical Storm Chaba strengthened on Thursday as it started to move toward Okinawa.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Chaba was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 138.6°E which put it about 1145 miles (1850 km) southeast of Okinawa.  Chaba was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Chaba showed signs of better organization on Thursday.  A primary rainband wrapped around the western and south sides of the circulation.  Additional bands of thunderstorms were forming on the southern and eastern side of Tropical Storm Chaba.  Thunderstorms near the core of Chaba were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass out to the west, south and east of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Chaba is moving into an environment that is favorable for intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge to the north of Chaba is generating easterly winds which are blowing across the northern portion of the tropical storm.  However, those winds are not causing significant vertical wind shear.  The combination of warm SSTs and little vertical wind shear should allow Tropical Storm Chaba to intensify steadily during the next several days.  It could become a typhoon within 24 to 48 hours.  There is a chance that Chaba could become the equivalent of a major hurricane in three or four days.

A subtropical ridge to the north of Chaba is steering the tropical storm toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue in the short term.  When Chaba gets a little closer to the western end of the ridge, it will start to move toward the northwest and when Chaba reaches the western end of the ridge it will turn toward the north.  On it anticipated track Tropical Storm Chaba could be approaching Okinawa and the Ryukyu islands in about three days.  It could be a powerful typhoon at that time.

Tropical Storm Chaba Forms East of Guam

A center of circulation developed within an area of thunderstorms east of Guam on Tuesday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Chaba.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Chaba was located at latitude 14.2°N and longitude 147.7°E which put it about 225 miles (360 km) east of Guam.  Chaba was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (27 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Chaba is still organizing.  The distribution of thunderstorms is asymmetrical.  There are more thunderstorms east of the center of circulation.  Additional thunderstorms are forming west of the center of circulation and some rainbands are developing.  The thunderstorms near the center of Tropical Storm Chaba are generating upper level divergence which is pumping mass out in all directions.

Tropical Storm Chaba is moving through an environment that is favorable for intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are light and there is not significant vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Chaba is likely to continue to intensify as the circulation gets better organized.  Chaba could become a typhoon later this week.

A subtropical ridge to the north of Chaba is steering the tropical storm toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue for another 24 to 36 hours.  When Tropical Storm Chaba moves farther west, it will get closer to the western end of the subtropical ridge and Chaba is likely to turn more toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Chaba will move through the Marianas between Guam and Saipan and Tinian on Wednesday.  Chaba could be approaching Okinawa in about five days.

Typhoon Megi Strengthens As It Moves Closer to Taiwan

Typhoon Megi strengthened quickly on Saturday as it moved steadily closer to Taiwan.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Megi was located at latitude 19.4°N and longitude 131.0°E which put it about 685 miles (1105 km) east-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan.  Megi was moving toward the west northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

Megi is a large well organized typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extend out about 50 miles (80 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out more than 200 miles (320 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Megi is 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 18.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 36.5.

The circulation of Typhoon Megi is very symmetrical.  Numerous bands of thunderstorms are rotating around the center.  A circular eye appears to be forming at the center of circulation.  Thunderstorms near the center and in the rainbands are generating upper level divergence which is pumping out large quantities of mass in all directions.

Typhoon Megi is moving through a very favorable environment.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Megi is likely to continue to intensify and it could become the equivalent of a major hurricane on Sunday.

Typhoon Megi is moving southwest of a subtropical ridge which is steering it toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Megi will approach Taiwan in about 48 hours.

Typhoon Megi is large and dangerous typhoon.  It is likely to bring strong winds and heavy rain to Taiwan.