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Elsa Weakens South of Hispaniola

Former Hurricane Elsa weakened back to tropical storm intensity while it passed south of Hispaniola on Saturday. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 73.0°W which put it about 255 miles (410 km) east of Kingston, Jamaica. Elsa was moving toward the west-northwest at 29 m.p.h. (46 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Port Au Prince, Haiti to the southern border with the Dominican Republic. Hurricane Watches were in effect for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas and Santiago de Cuba. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portion of the coast from Port Au Prince to the northern border with the Dominican Republic and from Punta Palenque, Dominican Republic to the southern border with Haiti. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for Jamaica and the Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Palenque to Cabo Engano, Dominican Republic. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Cayman Brac, Little Cayman and the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cienfuegos, Villa Clara and Matanzas.

Strong winds in the lower levels pushed the surface center of former Hurricane Elsa to the west of the center in the middle levels early on Saturday. The displacement between the two centers disrupted the vertical circulation of Elsa and it weakened back to tropical storm intensity. More thunderstorms started to develop east of the center of Tropical Storm Elsa on Saturday morning. Mountains in southwestern Haiti appeared to deflect the low level flow around the northern side of Elsa. More thunderstorms began forming to the north of the center of Tropical Storm Elsa on Saturday afternoon. A NOAA plane appeared to find that the surface pressure was decreasing again at the center of Elsa on Saturday afternoon. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Elsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. The center of Tropical Storm Elsa will pass just south of Haiti and just north of Jamaica. Elsa will move more slowly during the next 24 hours. It will move into a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be less vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Elsa could intensify back to a hurricane on Saturday night.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next 18 hours. The high will continue to steer Tropical Storm Elsa toward the west-northwest, but Elsa is likely to more more slowly. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. is forecast to weaken the high pressure system on Sunday. When the high weakens, then Tropical Storm Elsa will move more toward the northwest. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Elsa will pass just to the south of the southwestern coast of Haiti. The center of Tropical Storm Elsa could pass north of Jamaica and be near eastern Cuba by Sunday morning. Elsa could approach the Florida Keys on Monday. Elsa will cause gusty winds and locally heavy rain over parts of Haiti, Jamaica and Cuba.

Hurricane Elsa Speeds across the Caribbean Sea

Hurricane Elsa sped across the eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Elsa was located at latitude 14.8°N and longitude 66.3°W which put it about 395 miles (635 km) east-southeast of Isla Beata, Dominican Republic. Elsa was moving toward the west-northwest at 29 m.p.h. (46 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Jamaica. Hurricane Warnings were also in effect for the coast of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic and for the coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the southern border with Haiti. Hurricane Watches were in effect for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanmo, Holguin, Las Tunas and Santiago de Cuba. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the coast of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the northern border with the Dominican Republic and for the coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to Cabo Engano. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Cayman Brac and Little Cayman. A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Bahia de Manzanillo.

After intensifying to a hurricane on Friday morning, Hurricane Elsa exhibited a slightly weaker appearance on Friday night. Strong easterly winds in the lower levels were pushing the surface center of Elsa to the east of the center in the middle troposphere. Those winds were causing vertical wind shear and they were pushing the surface center under a layer of drier air in the middle troposphere. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the eastern side of Hurricane Elsa. Drier air was inhibiting the formation of thunderstorms northwest of the center of Elsa. Storms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence that was pumping mass away from the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) on the northern side of Elsa. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Elsa will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Elsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move through a region where the winds in the upper and lower levels will blow from the east. The winds in the lower levels could be stronger, which would generate vertical wind shear. The shear will inhibit intensification and it could keep the surface center of circulation under a layer of drier air. If the winds in the lower levels remain strong, then Hurricane Elsa could weaken on Saturday. However, if the winds in the lower levels weaken, then Hurricane Elsa could start to intensify again.

Hurricane Elsa will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high is forecast to steer Elsa quickly toward the west-northwest. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. is forecast to weaken the high pressure system on Sunday. When the high weakens, then Hurricane Elsa will move more toward the northwest. On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Elsa will be south of the Dominican Republic on Saturday morning. Elsa could be near the southern coast of Haiti by Saturday night. Hurricane Elsa could be near Jamaica and eastern Cuba by Sunday morning. Elsa could approach South Florida or the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Monday.

Elsa Strengthens to a Hurricane near Barbados

Former Tropical Storm Elsa strengthened to a hurricane near Barbados on Friday morning. At 8:30 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Elsa was located at latitude 13.1°N and longitude 60.1°W which put it about 40 miles (65 km) west of Barbados. Elsa was moving toward the west-northwest at 28 m.p.h. (44 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines. A Hurricane Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Port Au Prince, Haiti to the southern border with the Dominican Republic. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Martinique, the entire coast of Haiti, and for the coast from Cabo Engano, Dominican Republic to the southern border with Haiti. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Grenada, Jamaica, Dominca, Saba and St. Eustatius.

A weather station on Barbados measured a sustained wind speed of 74 m.p.h. (119 km/h) and a wind gust to 86 m.p.h. (139 km/h) on Friday morning, and the National Hurricane Center upgraded former Tropical Storm Elsa to a hurricane. Despite moving toward the west-northwest very quickly, Elsa intensified rapidly during Thursday night. An eye appeared to be developing at the center of Hurricane Elsa on microwave satellite imagery. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern side of the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that part of the hurricane.

The distribution of thunderstorms was still asymmetrical in Hurricane Elsa. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the eastern and southern side of Elsa. Bands in the northwestern part of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) on the northern side of Elsa. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Elsa will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Elsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move through a region where the winds in the upper and lower levels will blow from the east. The winds in the lower levels could be stronger, which would generate vertical wind shear. The shear will inhibit intensification, but Hurricane Elsa has strengthened in spite of the wind shear. Hurricane Elsa could intensify during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Elsa will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high is forecast to steer Elsa quickly toward the west-northwest. On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Elsa will pass near St. Lucia and St. Vincent in a few hours. Elsa will produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain over the Windward Islands. Hurricane Elsa will be near Hispaniola on Saturday. Elsa could pass near Jamaica and Cuba on Sunday. Hurricane Elsa could approach South Florida or the Gulf of Mexico by early next week.

Tropical Storm Elsa Strengthens, Will Hit Windward Islands Friday

Tropical Storm Elsa strengthened on Thursday night. Elsa was on course to hit the Windward Islands on Friday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located at latitude 11.8°N and longitude 55.9°W which put it about 260 miles (420 km) east-southeast of Barbados. Elsa was moving toward the west at 26 m.p.h. (43 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Barbados, Martinique, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Grenada and Jamaica. Tropical Storm Watches were also in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Palenque, Dominican Republic to the southern border from Haiti, and from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas, Haiti.

Despite moving quickly toward the west-northwest, the circulation around Tropical Storm Elsa strengthened on Thursday night. The inner end of a rainband wrapped partly around the northeastern portion of the center of circulation. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring mainly in bands in the southern and eastern parts of Elsa. Bands in the western half of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Elsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move through a region where the winds in the upper and lower levels will blow from the east. The winds in the lower levels will be stronger, which will generate vertical wind shear. The shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Storm Elsa is forecast to strengthen. If the winds in the lower levels get stronger than they are forecast to be, then those winds could push the lower part of Elsa west of the upper half of the tropical storm. If the lower and upper halves of Tropical Storm Elsa’s circulation decouple, then it would weaken.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next two days. The high will steer Elsa quickly toward the west-northwest. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Elsa will move across the Windward Islands on Friday. Elsa will produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain over the Windward Islands. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Storm Elsa could be near Hispaniola on Saturday and it could approach Jamaica and Cuba on Sunday. Elsa could be near South Florida or the Gulf of Mexico by early next week.

Tropical Storm Elsa Speeds Toward Windward Islands

Tropical Storm Elsa was speeding toward the Windward Islands on Thursday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located at latitude 9.6°N and longitude 50.2°W which put it about 780 miles (1255 km) east-southeast of the Windward Islands. Elsa was moving toward the west at 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Barbados, Martinique, St. Lucia, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Guadeloupe and Grenada.

The circulation in a tropical wave east-southeast of the Windward Islands exhibited a little more organization on Thursday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Elsa. The distribution of thunderstorms around Elsa was asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of the tropical storm. Bands in the northern half of Tropical Storm Elsa consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. A rainband appeared to be starting to wrap around the eastern side of the center of circulation. Despite the fact that the strongest thunderstorms were in the southern half of Elsa, the strongest winds were occurring north of the center of circulation. The pressure gradient between the subtropical high over the Atlantic Ocean and the tropical storm was producing the most force to the north of the center. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the northern half of Tropical Storm Elsa. Winds in the southern half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Elsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move through a region where the winds in the upper and lower levels will blow from the east. The winds in the lower levels could be stronger, which would generate vertical wind shear. The shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Storm Elsa is forecast to strengthen. If the winds in the lower levels get a little stronger than they are forecast to be, then those winds could push the lower part of Elsa west of the upper half of the tropical storm. If the lower and upper halves of Tropical Storm Elsa’s circulation decouple, then it could weaken back to a tropical wave.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next few days. The high is forecast to steer Elsa quickly toward the west-northwest. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Elsa will reach the Windward Islands on Friday. Elsa will produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain over the Windward Islands. Tropical Storm Elsa could be near Hispaniola on Saturday and it could approach South Florida or the Gulf of Mexico be early next week.

Tropical Storm Watches Issued for Windward Islands

Tropical Storm Watches were issued for the Windward Islands on Wednesday afternoon because of the forecast intensification of a tropical wave. The National Hurricane Center changed the designation of the tropical wave from Invest 97L to Potential Tropical Cyclone Five when it began issuing advisories on the system. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five was located at latitude 9.6°N and longitude 43.7°W which put it about 1195 miles (1920 km) east of the Windward Islands. The tropical wave was moving toward the west-northwest at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches were issued for Barbados, St. Vincent, the Grenadines, St. Lucia and Martinique.

A tropical wave east of the Windward Islands exhibited more organization on Wednesday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Potential Tropical Cyclone Five in order to be able to issue Tropical Storm Watches for several of the Windward Islands. The center of the tropical wave continued to be elongated. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing around the elongated center. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical wave. The strongest upper level divergence was to the west of the wave.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. The tropical wave will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27.5°C. It will move through a region where the winds in the upper and lower levels will blow from the east. The winds in the lower levels could be stronger, which would generate vertical wind shear. The shear will inhibit intensification, but Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is forecast to develop into a tropical storm.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next few days. The high is forecast to steer the tropical wave toward the west-northwest. On its anticipated track Potential Tropical Cyclone Five could approach the Windward Islands on Friday morning. It is forecast to be a tropical storm when it reaches the Windward Islands.

Tropical Depression Five Strengthens into Tropical Storm Edouard

Former Tropical Depression Five strengthened into Tropical Storm Edouard northeast of Bermuda on Sunday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Edouard was located at latitude 37.2°N and longitude 56.9°W which put it about 685 miles (1100 km) south-southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland.  Edouard was moving toward the northeast at 35 m.p.h. (56 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.  Tropical Storm Edouard became the earliest fifth named storm to form over the Atlantic Ocean during the satellite era since 1966.

Former Tropical Depression Five exhibited greater organization on satellite imagery and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Edouard.  More thunderstorms formed in bands east of the center of circulation.  Bands in the northern and western parts of Edouard consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force were occurring within 60 miles of the center in the southeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Edouard.  The winds in the other parts of Edouard were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Edouard will move through an environment that could allow for a little more intensification during the next 12 hours.  Edouard will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 24°C.  It will move under the southern fringe of the upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes.  Those winds will blow toward the top of the circulation and they will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The relatively cool water temperatures and moderate vertical wind shear will limit future intensification.  Tropical Storm Edouard could get a little stronger on Monday.  Edouard will move over cooler water later on Monday and it will start a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

Tropical Storm Edouard will move around the northern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Edouard toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Edouard will pass well south of Newfoundland.

Tropical Depression Five Forms West-southwest of Bermuda

Tropical Depression Five formed west-southwest of Bermuda on Saturday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Five was located at latitude 31.1°N and longitude 68.7°W which put it about 245 miles (390 km) west-southwest of Bermuda.  The depression was moving toward the east-northeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

Visible satellite images showed that a small low pressure system west-southwest of Bermuda exhibited more organization on Saturday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Five.  The circulation around Tropical Depression Five was small but it was fairly well organized.  The depression had a well defined center of circulation.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands south and east of the center.  Bands in the northwestern part of Tropical Depression Five consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the east of the depression.

Tropical Depression Five will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 24 hours.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 25.5°C.  It will move under the southern edge of the upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear, but the shear may not be strong enough to prevent some intensification.  Tropical Depression Five could strengthen into a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Depression Five will move around the northwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer the depression toward the east-northeast during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Five will move near Bermuda on Saturday night.  The depression could be a tropical storm when it passes by Bermuda.

Hurricane Dorian Brings Powerful Winds to Nova Scotia

Hurricane Dorian brought powerful winds to Nova Scotia on Saturday.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Dorian was located at latitude 45.0°N and longitude 67.9°W which put it about 45 miles (75 km) northeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia.  Dorian was moving toward the northeast at 30 m.p.h. (48 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Lower East Pubnico to Brule, Nova Scotia and from Indian Harbour to Hawke’s Bay, Newfoundland. Hurricane Watches were in effect for Prince Edward Island and for the Magdalen Islands. Tropical Storm Warnings were issued for Prince Edward Island and from Avonport to Lower East Pubnico, Nova Scotia. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for New Brunswick from Fundy National Park to Shediac. A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from Indian Harbour to Stone’s Cove, Newfoundland. Tropical Storm Warnings were issued for the portions of the coast from Hawke’s Bay to Fogo Island and from Mutton Bay to Mary’s Harbour.

Hurricane Dorian maintained its intensity and increased in size on Saturday while it sped across the northwestern Atlantic Ocean to the Canadian Maritime provinces.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 115 miles (185 km) on the southern side of Hurricane Dorian.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 300 miles (480 km) from the center of circulation.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Dorian was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 26.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 42.8.  Hurricane Dorian was capable of causing widespread serious damage.

There were reports of wind damage and widespread power outages around Nova Scotia even before the center of Hurricane reached that area.  The large circulation around Dorian brought tropical storm force winds to Nova Scotia a few hours before the center made landfall.  The center of Hurricane Dorian officially made landfall south of Halifax, Nova Scotia on Saturday evening.

Hurricane Dorian had almost completed a transition to a large powerful extratropical cyclone.  That transition contributed to the increase in size of the circulation.  The strongest part of Hurricane Dorian will move across Nova Scotia during the next few hours.  The winds are likely to cause additional damage on Saturday night.  Hurricane Dorian will race across Nova Scotia, Cape Breton Island and New Brunswick on Saturday night.  Dorian will move over Newfoundland and southeastern Labrador on Sunday.  Hurricane Dorian has the potential to cause serious damage in all of those locations.

Hurricane Dorian Makes Landfall at Cape Hatteras, Threatens Canadian Maritimes

Hurricane Dorian made an official landfall at Cape Hatteras, North Carolina on Friday morning and posed a serious threat to the Canadian Maritime provinces.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Dorian was located at latitude 36.9°N and longitude 72.7°W which put it about 330 miles (530 km) south-southwest of Nantucket, Massachusetts.  Dorian was moving toward the northeast at 24 m.p.h. (39 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surace pressure was 958 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island, Delaware, and for Chesapeake Bay south of Drum Point.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bar Harbor to Eastport, Maine.  A Hurricane Warning was in effect from Hubbards to Avonport, Nova Scotia.  A Hurricane Watch was issued for Prince Edward Island, Avonport to Hubbards, Nova Scotia, the Magdalen Islands, Parson’s Pond to Indian Harbour, Newfoundland.  Tropical Storm Warnings were issued for Prince Edward Island and from Avonport to Hubbards, Nova Scotia.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for New Brunswick from Fundy National Park to Shediac.  A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for Newfoundland from Francois to Boat Harbor.  A Tropical Storm Watch was  issued for the portion of the coast from Parson’s Pond to Triton, and from Indian Harbour to Stone’s Cove, Newfoundland.

The National Hurricane Center determined that the center of Hurricane Dorian passed over Cape Hatteras and identified that as the point of landfall.  Hurricane Dorian has been moving rapidly away from the coast since that time.  Hurricane Dorian remained a large, well organized hurricane.  A circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) was apparent on satellite images.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 230 miles (370 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Dorian was 13.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 23.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 43.2.

Hurricane Dorian will move through an environment favorable for intensification on Saturday.  Dorian will start out over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  Dorian will move over cooler water later on Saturday.  An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will contribute to upper level divergence, which may pump out enough mass to allow the surface pressure to decrease.  Hurricane Dorian will start to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone later on Saturday.  The interaction of colder and warmer air could also provide additional energy to the transitioning hurricane.  There is a chance that Hurricane Dorian could strengthen to a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Saturday.

The upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will steer Hurricane Dorian rapidly toward the northeast during the weekend.  On its anticipated track, Dorian will pass southeast of Massachusetts on Saturday morning.  Hurricane Dorian could reach Nova Scotia by Saturday afternoon.  Dorian could be one of the strongest hurricanes to affect the Canadian Maritime provinces.  It will be capable of causing widespread serious damage.