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Fiona Strengthens to Major Hurricane over Turks and Caicos

Hurricane Fiona strengthened to a major hurricane over the Turks and Caicos on Tuesday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Fiona was located at latitude 21.6°N and longitude 71.2°W which put it about 10 miles (15 km) northwest of Grand Turk. Fiona was moving toward the north-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (220 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the Turks and Caicos. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana and the Ragged Islands.

Hurricane Fiona strengthened on Tuesday morning and it became the first Atlantic major hurricane in 2022. A circular eye with a diameter of 18 miles (30 km) was present at the center of Fiona’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Fiona. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Hurricane Fiona. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 32.1. Hurricane Fiona was capable of causing regional major damage.

Hurricane Fiona will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Fiona will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Fiona is likey to intensify during the next 24 hours. Fiona could strengthen to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Hurricane Fiona to weaken temporarily.

Hurricane Fiona will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fiona toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Fiona will bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Turks and Caicos and Southeastern Bahamas on Tuesday. An upper level trough near the East Coast of the U.S. will steer Fiona toward the northeast on Wednesday. Hurricane Fiona will affect Bermuda on Thursday night. Fiona could be a major hurricane when it gets to Bermuda.

Hurricane Fiona Strengthens Southeast of the Turks and Caicos

Hurricane Fiona strengthened over the Atlantic Ocean southeast of the Turks and Caicos. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Fiona was located at latitude 20.6°N and longitude 70.3°W which put it about 80 miles (130 km) southeast of Grand Turk. Fiona was moving toward the north-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 971 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the Turks and Caicos. A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Caucedo to Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana and the Ragged Islands.

Hurricane Fiona resumed intensifying after the core moved north of the Dominican Republic on Monday.. A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) quickly reformed after the center of Fiona moved over the warm water north of the Dominican Republic. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Fiona. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Fiona. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Fiona will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Fiona will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Fiona will intensify to a major hurricane on Tuesday. Fiona could strengthen to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale during the next 36 hours. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Hurricane Fiona to weaken later this week.

Hurricane Fiona will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fiona toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the core of Hurricane Fiona will pass east of the Turks and Caicos on Tuesday. An upper level trough near the East Coast of the U.S. will steer Fiona toward the northeast on Wednesday. Hurricane Fiona will affect Bermuda on Thursday night. Fiona could be a major hurricane when it gets to Bermuda.

Hurricane Fiona Hits Eastern Dominican Republic

Hurricane Fiona hit the eastern Dominican Republic on Monday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Fiona was located at latitude 18.8°N and longitude 69.0°W which put it about 45 miles (75 km) southeast of Samana, Dominican Republic. Fiona was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Caucedo to Cabo Frances Viejo, Domincan Republic. A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for the Turks and Caicos. A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Puerto Rico, Culebra and Vieques. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana and the Ragged Islands. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Caucedo to Barahona, Dominican Republic.

The eye of Hurricane Fiona made landfall on the east coast of the Dominican Republic south-southwest of Punta Cana on Monday morning. Fiona continued to intensify until the eye made landfall. The eye had a diameter of 18 miles (30 km). A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Fiona. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Fiona. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Fiona is likely to weaken during the next few hours while the eye is over the eastern Dominican Republic. Fiona will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification after it moves north of the Dominican Republic. Fiona will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Fiona could rapidly intensify to a major hurricane after it moves north of the Dominican Republic.

Hurricane Fiona will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fiona toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. Hurricane Fiona will move toward the north when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system. On its anticipated track Hurricane Fiona will move across the eastern Dominican Republic during the next few hours. Fiona will bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the eastern Dominican Republic. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Bands in the eastern side of Fiona’s circulation will continue to drop locally heavy rain on Puerto Rico on Monday. Flood Warnings are in effect for parts of Puerto Rico. Hurricane Fiona will be east of the Turks and Caicos on Tuesday. Fiona could be near Bermuda on Thursday night.

Hurricane Earl Passes Southeast of Bermuda

Hurricane Earl passed southeast of Bermuda on Thursday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Earl was located at latitude 31.3°N and longitude 63.7°W which put it about 95 miles (150 km) southeast of Bermuda. Earl was moving toward the north-northeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 964 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Bermuda.

Hurricane Earl was producing winds to nearly tropical storm force in Bermuda. The L.F. Wade International Airport reported a sustained wind speed of 36 m.p.h. (58 km/h) and a wind gust of 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The structure of Hurricane Earl was beginning to resemble a hurricane that was moving from the tropics into the middle latitudes. An eye with a diameter of 60 miles (95 km) was at the center of Earl’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the large core of Hurricane Earl. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Earl’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Earl will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Earl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. An upper level trough near the East Coast of the U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Earl’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and the wind shear will inhibit intensification. The southwesterly winds could also enhance divergence to the northeast of Hurricane Earl. Earl could intensify on Friday if the effect of the enhanced divergence exceeds the effect of the vertical wind shear. The southwesterly winds are forecast to increase during the weekend when the upper level trough moves closer to Hurricane Earl. Stronger vertical wind shear will cause Earl to weaken and to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough near the East Coast of the U.S. will steer Hurricane Earl toward the northeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Earl will move away from Bermuda on Friday. The gusty winds and rain in Bermuda will diminish on Friday when Earl moves farther away.

Bermuda Issues Hurricane Watch for Hurricane Earl

The government of Bermuda issued a Hurricane Watch on Wednesday afternoon because of the potential effects of Hurricane Earl. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Earl was located at latitude 26.5°N and longitude 65.5°W which put it about 405 miles (650 km) south of Bermuda. Earl was moving toward the north at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for Bermuda. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for Bermuda.

Hurricane Earl exhibited more organization on Thursday afternoon. An circular eye with a diameter of 18 miles (30 km) was at the center of Earl’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a partial ring of thunderstorms. Thunderstorms surrounded the northern half of the eye. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the more organized core of Hurricane Earl. Storms near the center of Earl generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Earl increased in size on Thursday. Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Earl’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Earl was 12.7. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 27.5.

Hurricane Earl will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Earl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Earl will intensify during the next 36 hours. After an inner core with a fully formed eye and eyewall develops, Earl could intensify rapidly. Hurricane Earl could strengthen to a major hurricane within 36 hours.

Hurricane Earl will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Earl toward the north during the next 12 hours. An upper level trough near the East Coast of the U.S. will turn Hurricane Earl toward the northeast on Thursday. On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Earl will pass southeast of Bermuda on Thursday evening. Bands in the western side of Hurricane Earl could bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Bermuda.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Danielle maintained hurricane intensity northwest of the Azores. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Danielle was located at latitude 44.9°N and longitude 34.9°W which put it about 625 miles (1010 km) northwest of the Azores. Danielle was moving toward the northeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

Tropical Storm Earl Prompts Watch for Bermuda

A potential risk posed by Tropical Storm Earl prompted the issuance of a Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda on Tuesday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located at latitude 24.1°N and longitude 65.8°W which put it about 570 miles (915 km) south of Bermuda. Earl was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Earl was close to strengthening to a hurricane on Tuesday afternoon. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern half of the center of circulation. An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Earl’s circulation. Bands of thunderstorms were located in the eastern and northern parts of Tropical Storm Earl. Bands in the southern and western parts of the circulation still consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Earl.

Tropical Storm Earl will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Earl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. An upper level low southwest of Bermuda will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Earl’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Storm Earl could continue to intensify slowly. The upper level winds are forecast to weaken later on Wednesday, and Earl is likely to intensify to a major hurricane after that happens.

Tropical Storm Earl will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Earl toward the north during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Earl will approach Bermuda on Thursday afternoon. Earl will be a hurricane when it approaches Bermuda.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Danielle was moving toward the east-northeast west of the Azores. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Danielle was located at latitude 42.5°N and longitude 40.3°W which put it about 765 miles (1230 km) west-northwest of the Azores. Danielle was moving toward the east-northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Tropical Storm Earl Intensifies North of the Virgin Islands

Tropical Storm Earl intensified north of the Virgin Islands on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located at latitude 21.5°N and longitude 65.3°W which put it about 215 miles (345 km) north-northwest of St. Thomas. Earl was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane found that Tropical Storm Earl had intensified during a reconnaissance flight on Monday morning. Even though the circulation around Tropical Storm Earl was stronger, the distribution of thunderstorms was still asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Earl’s circulation. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms in the eastern half of Earl generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Earl’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Earl will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Earl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough near the Bahamas. The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ear;’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Storm Earl could continue to intensify slowly. The upper level winds are forecast to weaken in a day or so, and Earl is likely to intensify to a hurricane when that happens.

Tropical Storm Earl will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Earl toward the north during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Earl will move farther away from the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Earl could approach Bermuda by the end of the week.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Danielle started to weaken west of the Azores. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Danielle was located at latitude 40.2°N and longitude 43.9°W which put it about 915 miles (1475 km) west-northwest of the Azores. Danielle was moving toward the north-northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

Tropical Storm Alex Brings Gusty Winds to Bermuda

Tropical Storm Alex brought gusty winds to Bermuda on Monday morning. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Alex was located at latitude 33.8°N and longitude 65.1°W which put it about 100 miles (160 km) north-northwest of Bermuda. Alex was moving toward the east-northeast at 28 m.p.h. (44 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Alex brought gusty winds to Bermuda on Monday morning as the center of Alex was passing north of the island. A Bermuda Weather Service buoy at Crescent Reef reported a sustained wind speed of 55 m.p.h. (89 km/h) with gusts to 72 m.p.h. (116 km/h). The Bermuda airport reported a sustained wind speed of 39 m.p.h. (63 km/h) with gusts to 59 m.p.h. (95 km/h).

Tropical Storm Alex was in the middle of a transition to an extratropical cyclone when it passed north of Bermuda on Monday morning. The bands near the center of Alex consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Thunderstorms were occurring in a band located 200 miles (320 km) southeast of the center of Tropical Storm Alex. An upper level trough near the East Coast of the U.S. was producing strong westerly winds that were blowing across the top of Alex’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear. Drier air was being pulled into the center of Tropical Storm Alex. Alex was also moving over cooler Sea Surface Temperatures. The combination of vertical wind shear, drier air and cooler water was causing the transition to an extratropical cyclone.

Tropical Storm Alex will continue to move through an environment favorable for the transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Alex will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24˚C. The upper level trough will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear and the drier air will inhibit the formation of thunderstorms near the center of Alex’s circulation. Tropical Storm Alex could complete a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough near the East Coast of the U.S. will steer Tropical Storm Alex quickly toward the east-northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated path Tropical Storm Alex will move quickly away from Bermuda on Monday afternoon. Wind speeds will decrease on Bermuda as Alex moves farther away.

Tropical Storm Alex Strengthens West of Bermuda

Tropical Storm Alex strengthened over the Atlantic Ocean west of Bermuda on Sunday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Alex was located at latitude 31.5°N and longitude 71.5°W which put it about 395 miles (640 km) west of Bermuda. Alex was moving toward the east-northeast at 28 m.p.h. (44 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Bermuda.

A reconnaissance flight found that Tropical Storm Alex intensified west of Bermuda on Sunday afternoon. Even though Alex strengthened, the distribution of thunderstorms remained asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern and northern parts of Tropical Storm Alex. The strongest winds were occurring in those bands of storms. Bands in the western part of Alex’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) in the eastern half of Tropical Storm Alex. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the western half of the circulation.

An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. was producing westerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Tropical Storm Alex’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear. The circulation around Alex was also pulling some drier air into the western half of the tropical storm. A combination of vertical wind shear and drier air were contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Storm Alex will move through an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Alex will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25˚C. The upper level trough over eastern U.S. will continue to produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Alex. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The drier in the western half of Alex’s circulation will also inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Alex could strengthen a little more during the next 12 hours. However, cooler Sea Surface Temperatures, vertical wind shear and drier air are likely to cause Alex to weaken on Monday. Alex could make a transition to an extratropical cyclone over the Atlantic Ocean during the middle of the week.

The upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will steer Tropical Storm Alex toward the east-northeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Alex will affect Bermuda on Monday. Alex will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to Bermuda. Heavy rain could cause flash floods. Since the and strongest winds and heaviest rain are in the eastern half of Alex, they could begin to affect Bermuda on Sunday night.

Tropical Storm Alex Develops East of Florida, Warning Issued for Bermuda

Tropical Storm Alex developed over the Atlantic Ocean east of Florida on Sunday morning and a Tropical Storm Warning was issued for Bermuda. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Alex was located at latitude 29.1°N and longitude 76.3°W which put it about 270 miles (435 km) east-northeast of Ft. Pierce, Florida. Alex was moving toward the northeast at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Bermuda.

A more persistent and more well defined center of circulation formed in former Potential Tropical Cyclone One on Sunday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Alex. The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Alex continued to be asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Alex’s circulation. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. was producing westerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Tropical Storm Alex. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) in the eastern side of Alex. Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the western half of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Alex will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Alex will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. The upper level trough over eastern U.S. and an upper level ridge over the western Atlantic Ocean will interact to produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Alex. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical shear will somewhat inhibit intensification. However, the upper level ridge will also enhance the upper level divergence over Alex. More upper level divergence would cause the surface pressure to decrease. Tropical Storm Alex could strengthen during the next 24 hours. There is a slight chance Alex could intensify to a hurricane.

The upper level trough over the eastern U.S. and the upper level ridge over the western Atlantic Ocean will steer Tropical Storm Alex toward the east-northeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Alex will affect Bermuda on Monday. Alex will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to Bermuda. Heavy rain could cause flash floods.