Tag Archives: Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Churns Westward

Tropical Cyclone Freddy churned westward over the South Indian Ocean on Tuesday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 89.3°E which put it about 1315 miles (2120 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia. Freddy was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy started to intensify again when it moved into a more favorable environment on Tuesday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was present at the center of Freddy’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Freddy was 19.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.0.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level ridge over the Southeast Indian Ocean will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear during the next 24 hours, but the wind shear is not likely to be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Freddy is likely to strengthen back to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move south of Diego Garcia in four or five days.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Dingani started a transition to an extratropical cyclone. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dingani was located at latitude 22.7°S and longitude 71.5°E which put it about 580 miles (935 km) east-southeast of Rodrigues. Dingani was moving toward the southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Passes South of the Cocos Islands

Tropical Cyclone Freddy passed south of the Cocos Islands on Sunday night. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 94.1°E which put it about 275 miles (445 km) south-southwest of Cocos Islands. Freddy was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 964 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy weakened a little as it passed south of the Cocos Islands on Sunday night. Freddy was moving under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the Southeast Indian Ocean. The ridge produced stronger easterly winds that blew toward the top of Freddy’s circulation during Sunday night. Those winds caused more vertical wind shear and the shear caused Tropical Cyclone Freddy to weaken a little. The wind shear also caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Freddy’s circulation to become more asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Some of the bands in the eastern side of Freddy consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. However, the upper level ridge over the Southeast Indian Ocean will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear during the next 24 hours. The wind shear is likely to cause Tropical Cyclone Freddy to weaken during the next 24 hours. Freddy could move into a region were the upper level winds are weaker later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move farther away from the Cocos Islands. Freddy could be south of Diego Garcia by the end of the week.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Dingani was passing east of Rodrigues. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dingani was located at latitude 19.2°S and longitude 73.2°E which put it about 660 miles (1060 km) east of Rodrigues. Dingani was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dingani Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Dingani strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean on Saturday night. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dingani was located at latitude 17.0°S and longitude 75.2°E which put it about 810 miles (1310 km) east-northeast of Rodrigues. Dingani was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dingani strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Saturday night. A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) developed at the center of Dingani’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Dingani. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Dingani. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Dingani will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Dingani will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will move under the western part of the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge. Tropical Cyclone Dingani is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours. Dingani could intensify rapidly at times, since it now has a well developed inner core with an eye and an eyewall.

Tropical Cyclone Dingani will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Dingani toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dingani could pass east of Rodrigues early next week.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Freddy was southeast of Cocos Islands. Freddy was the equivalent of a major hurricane. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 15.1°S and longitude 98.3°E which put it about 240 miles (390 km) southeast of Cocos Islands. Freddy was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Darian Weakens Southeast of Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Darian weakened over the South Pacific Ocean southeast of Rodrigues on Thursday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Darian was located at latitude 26.6°S and longitude 69.9°E which put it about 635 miles (1025 km) southeast of Rodrigues. Darian was moving toward the southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A combination of cooler Sea Surface Temperatures and moderate vertical wind shear caused Tropical Cyclone Darian to weaken on Thursday night as it moved over the South Indian Ocean on Thursday night. Darian was moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25˚C. An upper level trough east of Madagascar was producing northwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Darian’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear and cooler water were also affecting the structure of Tropical Cyclone Darian. Thunderstorms were occurring bands in the southeastern part of Darian’s circulation. Bands in the other parts of Tropical Cyclone Darian consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. There was still a large circulation around Darian. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Darian will move through an environment unfavorable for a tropical cyclone during the next few days. Darian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are colder than 25˚C. The upper level trough east of Madagascar will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. Cooler water and moderate vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Darian to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next few days. Darian could maintain its intensity while it goes the through the transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough east of Madagascar will steer Tropical Cyclone Darian toward the south during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track, Darian will move farther away from Rodrigues, Mauritius and La Reunion.

Tropical Cyclone Darian Weakens over South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Darian weakened over the South Indian Ocean on Tuesday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Darian was located at latitude 19.9°S and longitude 78.5°E which put it about 965 miles (1560 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia. Darian was moving toward the southwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Darian weakened to the equivalent of a tropical storm when it moved over cooler water in the South Indian Ocean on Tuesday night. Thunderstorms did not grow as high into the atmosphere after Darian moved over cooler water. Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Darian’s circulation on Tuesday night. Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (325 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Darian will move through an environment unfavorable for a tropical cyclone during the next few days. Darian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are colder than 25˚C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Darian’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. A combination of colder water and moderate vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Darian to continue to weaken during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Darian will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Darian toward the southwest during the next 36 hours. On it anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Darian will pass far to the south of Diego Garcia in 24 hours. Darian could be southeast of Rodrigues in 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Darian Strengthens Back to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Darian strengthened back to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean southeast of Diego Garcia on Monday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Darian was located at latitude 16.9°S and longitude 84.5°E which put it about 1060 miles (1710 km) southeast of Diego Garcia. Darian was moving toward the southwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

After completing several eyewall replacement cycles during the past 36 hours, Tropical Cyclone Darian strengthened back to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean far to the southeast of Diego Garcia. A circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) was at the center of Darian’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Darian. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The completed eyewall replacements cycles increased the size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Darian. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Darian. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (305 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Darian was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 19.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 43.0.

Tropical Cyclone Darian will move through an environment favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Darian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the core of Tropical Cyclone Darian, then another eyewall replacement cycle could begin. A new eyewall replacement cycle would cause Darian to weaken again. Tropical Cyclone Darian will move over cooler water later this week, which is likely to cause a steadier weakening trend.

Tropical Cyclone Darian will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Darian toward the southwest during the next few days. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Darian will pass far to the south of Diego Garcia. Darian could be southeast of Rodrigues in three days.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati Forms Northeast of Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Emnati formed over the Southwest Indian Ocean northeast of Rodrigues on Wednesday. At 7:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was located at latitude 14.0°S and longitude 67.2°E which put it about 455 miles (735 km) northeast of Rodrigues. Emnati was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean northeast of Rodrigues strengthened on Wednesday and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Emnati. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Emnati appeared to be organizing quickly on Wednesday evening. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Emnati’s circulation and microwave satellite images suggested that a small eye could be forming at the center. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of the tropical cyclone. Bands in the eastern half of Emnati consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Emnati will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Emnati’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent strengthening. Tropical Cyclone Emnati will intensify during the next 48 hours and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon. Emnati could intensify more rapidly once an inner core with an eye and an eyewall forms.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high will steer Emnati toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Emanti will pass north of Rodrigues in 36 hours. Emnati could pass north of Mauritius and La Reunion during the weekend. Tropical Cyclone Emnati could hit Madagascar next week.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai Passes North of Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai passed north of Rodrigues on Sunday night. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 15.7°S and longitude 62.9°E which put it about 495 miles (795 km) northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius. Batsirai was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai passed north of Rodrigues on Sunday night. The circulation around Batsirai remained well organized. A small circular eye was at the center of Batsirai’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Batsirai increased in size on Sunday. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Batsirai. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was 16.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 30.3.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Batsirai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The ridge will produced easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Batsirai’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and the wind shear could inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could strengthen during the next 24 hours. Batsirai could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next day or two.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could be north of Mauritius in 48 hours. Batsirai could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it is north of Mauritius. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could approach La Reunion in 60 hours. Batsirai could also eventually affect Madagascar later next week.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai Intensifies Northeast of Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai intensified northeast of Rodrigues on Sunday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 16.7°S and longitude 65.7°E which put it about 255 miles (410 km) northeast of Rodrigues. Batsirai was moving toward the west-northwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai continued to intensify on Sunday morning. A small circular eye was present at the center of Batsirai’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai. Storms near the core of the circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was still small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Batsirai. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was 19.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.9.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Batsirai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai is likely to continue to intensify. Batsirai could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will pass north of Rodrigues during the next 24 hours. The core of Batsirai will pass north of Rodrigues, but it could still bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could approach Mauritius and La Reunion in 48 hours. Batsirai could be the equivalent of a major hurricane at that time. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could also eventually affect Madagascar later next week.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai Strengthens Back to Equivalent of a Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai strengthened back to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean on Saturday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 17.9°S and longitude 69.5°E which put it about 420 miles (695 km) east of Rodrigues. Batsirai was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai strengthened from a tropical storm back to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Saturday morning. Microwave satellite images showed that a new pinhole eye had formed at the center of Batsirai’s circulation. The tiny eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the tiny core of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai. The circulation around Batisirai continued to be very small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 10 miles (15 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Batsirai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai is likely to continue to intensify during the next 48 hours. It could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane by early next week.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could be just north of Rodrigues in less than 48 hours. If the core of Batsirai stays north of Rodrigues, it could still bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could approach Mauritius in three and a half days. Batsirai could also eventually affect La Reunion and Madagascar later next week.