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Typhoon Muifa Moves Toward Eastern China

Typhoon Muifa moved toward eastern China on Tuesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Muifa was located at latitude 27.2°N and longitude 123.7°E which put it about 280 miles (450 km) south-southeast of Shanghai, China. Muifa was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 964 mb.

The circulation around Typhoon Mauifa exhibited good organization on Tuesday morning. A circular eye was present at the center of Muifa. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Muifa. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.

The wind field around Typhoon Muifa way very symmetrical. Winds to typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Muifa. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Muifa was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 17.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.9. Typhoon Muifa was capable of causing regional serious damage.

Typhoon Muifa will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Muifa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. An upper level trough over China will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Muifa’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase during the next 24 hours. The increase in wind shear and cooler water will cause Typhoon Muifa to weaken gradually.

Typhoon Muifa will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Muifa toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Typhoon Muifa will make landfall on the east coast of China south of Shanghai in 18 hours. The center of Muifa could make landfall near Ningbo. Typhoon Muifa will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the region around Shanghai. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations in eastern China.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Merbok strengthened north-northwest of Wake Island and Tropical Depression 16W also strengthened southwest of Iwo To. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Merbok was located at latitude 26.2N and longitude 162.7°E which put it about 500 miles (805 km) north-northwest of Wake Island. Merbok was moving toward the north-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression 16W was located at latitude 22.6N and longitude 139.6°E which put it about 190 miles (310 km) southwest of Iwo To. The tropical depression was moving toward the northeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Typhoon Muifa Brings Wind and Rain to Southern Ryukyu Islands

Typhoon Muifa brought wind and rain to the southern Ryukyu Islands on Monday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Muifa was located at latitude 25.2°N and longitude 124.0°E which put it about 55 miles (90 km) north of Ishigaki, Japan. Muifa was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

Typhoon Muifa continued to bring wind and rain to the southern Ryukyu Islands on Monday. The center of Typhoon Muifa was moving slowly away from Ishigakijima. The strongest winds were measured in Ishigakijima after the eye passed over. A weather station on Ishigakijima measured a sustained wind speed of 68 m.p.h. (109 km/h). The same weather station measured a surface pressure of 968.3 mb when the eye of Typhoon Muifa passed over it. The weather station measured 11.71 inches (297.5 mm) of rain during the passage of Muifa. Bands in the eastern side of Muifa’s circulation also dropped heavy rain over Miyakojima.

The circulation around Typhoon Muifa remained well organized on Monday. A circular eye was present at the center of Muifa’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Muifa. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.

Winds to typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Typhoon Muifa. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) from the center of Muifa. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Muifa was 16.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 15.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 31.9. Muifa was capable of causing regional serious damage.

Typhoon Muifa will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Muifa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. However, an upper level trough over China will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Muifa’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase during the next 36 hours. The increase in wind shear will cause Typhoon Muifa to start to weaken.

Typhoon Muifa will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Muifa slowly toward the north-northwest during the next 36 hours. The strong winds and locally heavy rain in the southern Ryukyu Islands will gradually diminish during the next 24 hours as Typhoon Muifa moves farther away. On its anticipated track Typhoon Muifa could approach the east coast of China south of Shanghai in 36 hours.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Merbok continued to strengthen northwest of Wake Island. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Merbok was located at latitude 22.9°N and longitude 162.8°E which put it about 350 miles (565 km) northwest of Wake Island. Merbok was moving toward the northeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Eye of Typhoon Muifa Passes over Ishigakijima

The eye of Typhoon Muifa passed directly over Ishigakijima on Sunday night. A weather station on Ishigakijima measured a surface pressure of 968.3 mb. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Muifa was located at latitude 24.4°N and longitude 124.2°E which put it about 5 miles (10 km) east of Ishigaki, Japan. Muifa was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

Typhoon Muifa developed two concentric eyewalls and began an eyewall replacement cycle as it slowly approached Ishigakijima on Sunday. The inner end of rainband wrapped around the existing eye and eyewall and a larger outer eyewall surrounded them. Low level convergence became concentrated in the outer eyewall and the thunderstorms in the inner eyewall weakened. The remnants of the inner eyewall were visible on satellite images as a ring of showers and lower clouds. The outer eyewall had a diameter of 60 miles (95 km). The strongest winds were occurring in the outer eyewall. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Muifa. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.

The eyewall replacement cycle caused Typhoon Muifa to weaken as it approached Ishigakijima. Winds to typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Typhoon Muifa. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Muifa was 16.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 30.4. Typhoon Muifa was capable causing regional serious damage.

Typhoon Muifa will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Muifa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Muifa could intensify during the next 24 hours after the inner eyewall completely dissipates. Since Typhoon Muifa will move slowly, its winds could mix cooler water up to the surface of the ocean. Cooler water would limit potential intensification.

Typhoon Muifa will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Muifa slowly toward the north-northwest during the next 36 hours. Typhoon Muifa will continue to produce strong winds and locally heavy rain in the southern Ryukyu Islands during the next 24 hours. The strongest winds and heaviest rain are likely to affect Ishigakijima. Gusty winds and locally heavy rain could also affect Miyakojima. On its anticipated track Typhoon Muifa could approach the east coast of China near Shanghai in 60 hours.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Merbok was slowly strengthening west-northwest of Wake Island. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Merbok was located at latitude 21.6°N and longitude 161.6°E which put it about 365 miles (595 km) west-northwest of Wake Island. Merbok was moving toward the east-northeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Typhoon Hinnamnor Intensifies Back to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Typhoon Hinnamnor intensified back to the equivalent of a major hurricane west of Okinawa on Saturday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Hinnamnor was located at latitude 26.6°N and longitude 124.4°E which put it about 205 miles (330 km) west of Okinawa. Hinnamnor was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 951 mb.

Typhoon Hinnamnor strengthened back to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the East China Sea west of Okinawa on Saturday night. Two concentric eyewalls appeared to have formed in the middle of Typhoon Hinnamnor. A small inner eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was that the center of Hinnamnor’s circulation. The inner eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. A much larger, outer eyewall with a diameter of 100 miles (160 km) surrounded the inner eye and eyewall.

The formation of concentric eyewalls caused the size of the circulation around Typhoon Hinnamnor to increase. Winds to typhoon force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Hinnamnor. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 270 miles (435 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Hinnamnor was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 29.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 51.4. Typhoon Hinnamnor was capable of causing widespread major damage.

Typhoon Hinnamnor will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Hinnamnor will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are 30˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Hinnamnor could intensify until the inner eyewall starts to weaken and an eyewall replacement cycle begins. Hinnamnor will move closer to the upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes on Monday. The vertical wind shear will increase when that happens and Hinnamnor will weaken.

Typhoon Hinnamnor will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Hinnamnor toward the north during the next 24 hours. Hinnamnor will move toward northeast when it reaches the westerly winds in the middle latitudes. On its anticipated track Typhoon Hinnamnor will move east of Shanghai in 24 hours. Hinnamnor could approach South Korea in 36 hours.

Typhoon Hinnamnor Brings Wind and Rain to Southern Ryukyu Islands

Typhoon Hinnamnor brought wind and rain to the southern Ryukyu Islands on Saturday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Hinnamnor was located at latitude 24.1°N and longitude 124.6°E which put it about 35 miles (55 km) east-southeast of Ishigaki, Japan. Hinnamnor was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

Typhoon Hinnamnor strengthened as it moved slowly through the southern Ryukyu Islands on Saturday morning. A small circular eye formed at the center of Hinnamnor’s circulation. The eye was east of Ishigakijima and southwest of Miyakojima. The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Hinnamnor. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.

Typhoon Hinnamnor had a large circulation. Winds to typhoon force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Hinnamnor. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 225 miles (360 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Hinnamnor was 16.4. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 22.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 38.7. Typhoon Hinnamnor was capable of causing widespread serious damage.

Typhoon Hinnamnor will produce strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain over the southern Ryukyu Islands during the next 12 hours. The eastern side of the eyewall could pass over or close to Miyakojima. Strong winds will be capable of causing serious damage. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. The winds will not be as strong on Ishigakijima because the western side of the eyewall will pass to the east. Weather conditions will improve gradually when Typhoon Hinnamnor moves farther to the north.

Typhoon Hinnamnor will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Hinnamnor will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are 30˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Hinnamnor will intensity during the next 24 hours. Hinnamnor could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Typhoon Hinnamnor will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Hinnamnor toward the north during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Typhoon Hinnamnor will move across the southern Ryukyu Islands during the next 12 hours. The center of Hinnamnor will be west of Okinawa in 24 hours. Typhoon Hinnamnor could be southeast of Shanghai in 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Ma-on Makes Landfall in Southeast China

Tropical Storm Ma-on made landfall in southeast China on Thursday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Ma-on was located at latitude 22.0°N and longitude 109.2°E which put it about 80 miles (130 km) east of Qinzhou. Ma-on was moving toward the west-northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Storm Ma-on made landfall on the coast of southeastern China between Dianbai and Zhanjiang on Thursday morning. The center of Ma-on made landfall near Wuchuan. Ma-on was a strong tropical storm at the time of landfall. The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The distribution of thunderstorms and heavy rain in Tropical Storm Ma-on was asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms with heavy rain were occurring in the southern half of Ma-on’s circulation. The strongest winds were occurring over the South China Sea. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center of Tropical Storm Ma-on.

Tropical Storm Ma-on will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific during the next 36 hours. The high pressure system will steer Ma-on toward the west-northwest. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Ma-on will move inland over southeastern China and northern Vietnam. Ma-on will drop locally heavy rain over parts of southeastern China and northern Vietnam. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Tokage was weakening as it sped away from Japan. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Tokage was located at latitude 41.3°N and longitude 153.9°E which put it about 610 miles (985 km) east of Misawa, Japan. Tokage was moving toward the northeast at 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Tropical Storm Ma-on Moves over South China Sea

Tropical Storm Ma-on moved over the South China Sea southeast of Hong Kong on Wednesday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Ma-on was located at latitude 20.0°N and longitude 116.1°E which put it about 245 miles (395 km) southeast of Hong Kong. Ma-on was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Storm Ma-on maintained its intensity as it moved over the South China Sea southeast of Hong Kong on Wednesday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern and eastern sides of the center of Ma-on’s circulation. However, the distribution of thunderstorms in the rest of Tropical Storm Ma-on was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern and western parts of Ma-on. Bands in the eastern and northern parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. An upper level ridge over China was producing east-northeasterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Tropical Storm Ma-on. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Storm Ma-on will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ma-on will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are 29˚C. The upper level ridge over China will continue to cause vertical wind shear. If the vertical wind shear does not increase, then Tropical Storm Ma-on could strengthen during the next 24 hours. There is a chance Ma-on could strengthen to a typhoon.

Tropical Storm Ma-on will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ma-on toward the west-northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Ma-on could be south of Hong Kong in 12 hours. The center of Ma-on could make landfall on the south coast of China near Yangjiang and Dianbai in 24 hours. Tropical Storm Ma-on will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to southern China. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Typhoon Tokage was passing east of Japan. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Tokage was located at latitude 35.8°N and longitude 149.4°E which put it about 475 miles (770 km) east of Tokyo, Japan. Tokage was moving toward the north-northeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

Tropical Storm Ma-on Brings Wind and Rain to Northern Luzon

Tropical Storm Ma-on brought wind and rain to northern Luzon on Tuesday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Ma-on was located at latitude 18.0°N and longitude 121.2°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) southeast of Claveria, Philippines. Ma-on was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Storm Ma-on brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of northern Luzon on Tuesday morning. The center of Ma-on made landfall on the northeastern coast of Luzon east of Tuguegarao during Monday night. Tropical Storm Ma-on moved northwest across northern Luzon. Ma-on intensified before it made landfall and it was almost a typhoon at the time of landfall. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of Ma-on’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Ma-on will move through an environment favorable for intensification when it moves over the South China Sea. Ma-on will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are 29˚C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over China. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ma-on’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Storm Ma-on is likely to strengthen to a typhoon during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Ma-on will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ma-on toward the west-northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Ma-on will move away from northern Luzon later on Tuesday. Ma-on will continue to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to northern Luzon until it moves farther away. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Ma-on could be south of Hong Kong in 36 hours.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, former Tropical Storm Tokage intensified to a typhoon southeast of Japan. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Tokage was located at latitude 30.8°N and longitude 149.6°E which put it about 670 miles (1080 km) southeast of Tokyo, Japan. Tokage was moving toward the north-northwest at 19 m.p.h. (30 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Storm Mulan Brings Rain to Southern China

Tropical Storm Mulan brought rain to southern China on Wednesday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Mulan was located at latitude 20.9°N and longitude 108.9°E which put it about 40 miles (60 km) southwest of Beihai, China. Mulan was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Rainbands on the northern side of Tropical Storm Mulan brought rain to parts of southern China on Wednesday. Rain fell over coastal parts of southern China from Hong Kong to the border with Vietnam. Tropical Storm Mulan also dropped locally heavy rain on Hainan Island. Rainbands in the northwestern part of Mulan’s circulation brought rain to northeastern Vietnam.

Tropical Storm Mulan will move across the Gulf of Tonkin during the next 12 hours toward northern Vietnam. Mulan will move south of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean and eastern China. The high pressure system will steer Mulan toward the west-northwest during the next day or so. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Mulan will make landfall on the coast of northeastern Vietnam in about 12 hours.

Tropical Storm Mulan will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Mulan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge centered over eastern Asia. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Mulan’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and the shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Mulan is likely to maintain its current intensity during the next 12 hours, but it could strengthen a little prior to landfall in northeastern Vietnam.

Tropical Storm Mulan Forms South of Hong Kong

Tropical Storm Mulan formed over the South China Sea south of Hing Kong on Tuesday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Mulan was located at latitude 17.9°N and longitude 112.8°E which put it about 280 miles (450 km) south of Hong Kong. Mulan was moving toward the north at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A small low pressure system on the eastern side of a much larger low pressure system over the South China Sea south of Hong Kong strengthened on Tuesday morning and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Mulan. The circulation around Tropical Storm Mulan was embedded in a larger low pressure system over the South China Sea which had a diameter of 700 miles (1130 km). The distribution of thunderstorms around Mulan was asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring mainly in bands in the eastern half of Mulan’s circulation. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Mulan’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Mulan will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Mulan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the eastern side of a broad upper level low over the South China Sea. The upper low will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Mulan’s circulation. The winds at lower levels in the atmosphere will also blow from the south. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. Even though the water will be warm and there will be little vertical wind shear, the fact that Tropical Storm Mulan is a smaller low pressure system embedded in a much larger low pressure system is likely to inhibit intensification.

Tropical Storm Mulan will move around the northeastern part of the larger low pressure system over the South China Sea during the next 24 hours. The larger low pressure system will steer Mulan toward the northwest. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Mulan could approach the south coast of China near Zhanjiang within 24 hours. Mulan will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern China. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.