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Tropical Cyclone Marcus Strengthens Rapidly North of Australia

Tropical Cyclone Marcus moved back over the South Indian Ocean on Sunday and it strengthened rapidly north of Australia.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Marcus was located at latitude 15.0°S and longitude 122.8°E which put it about 215 miles (345 km) north-northeast of Broome, Australia.  Marcus was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Marcus weakened when it moved over the northernmost part of Western Australia, but it began to strengthen quickly after the core moved back over water.  An eye rapidly reformed at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms redeveloped around the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Storms around the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Marcus was relatively compact.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Marcus will be moving through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next two days.  Marcus will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Marcus is likely to continue to intensify rapidly and it could become the equivalent of a major hurricane in 24 to 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Marcus is moving around the northern side of a subtropical ridge over Australia, which is steering Marcus toward the west.  A general motion toward the west is forecast to continue for several more days.  Tropical Cyclone Marcus will reach the western end of the ridge in two or three days.  Marcus will turn toward the south at that time.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Marcus will move farther away from the coast of Western Australia during the next two days.

Tropical Cyclone Marcus Makes Landfall on North Coast of Australia

Tropical Cyclone Marcus made landfall on the northern coast of Western Australia east of Kalumburu on Saturday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Marcus was located at latitude 14.2°S and longitude 127.7°E which put it about 70 miles (115 km) east of Kalumburu, Australia.  Marcus was moving toward the west-southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (140 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for the portion of the coast between Wyndham and Beagle Bay not including Wyndham or Derby.

Tropical Cyclone Marcus strengthened as it moved over the Timor Sea on Saturday.  There was a small circular eye at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Storms in the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Marcus will weaken on Sunday while the core of the circulation moves over the extreme northern part of Western Australia.  Marcus is likely to strengthen when the center moves west of Kuri Bay and back out over water.  The Sea Surface Temperature of the water west of Kuri Bay is around 30°C.  The upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Marcus will likely intensify into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon after the center of circulation moves back over water.

Tropical Cyclone Marcus is moving north of a subtropical ridge over Australia.  The ridge is steering Marcus to the west-southwest and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Marcus will move over the Mitchell Plateau toward Kuri Bay.  Marcus will move away from the north coast of Western Australia when it moves west of Kuri Bay.

Tropical Cyclone Marcus Brings Wind and Rain to Darwin

Tropical Cyclone Marcus brought wind and rain to Darwin, Australia on Friday night.  A weather station at Darwin Harbor recorded a wind gust to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Marcus was located at latitude 12.7°S and longitude 130.7°E which put it about 20 miles (30 km) southwest of Darwin, Australia.  Marcus was moving toward the southwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for the portion of the coast from Cape Hotham to Mitchell Plateau including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.  A Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Cockatoo Island to Mitchell Plateau.

Tropical Cyclone Marcus intensified as it approached Darwin.  An eye developed at the center of circulation and a ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye.  The strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Storms around the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping away mass from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Marcus will move through an area favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Marcus will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge over Australia is producing easterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are creating some vertical wind shear, but the shear is not strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Marcus could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it moves over the Timor Sea on Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Marcus was being steered toward the southwest by the ridge over Australia and the southwesterly motion is expected to continue.  On its anticipated path the center of Tropical Cyclone Marcus will move across the Timor Sea on Saturday.  Marcus could approach the north coast of Western Australia east of Kalumburu in about 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Marcus Strengthens North of Australia

A Tropical Low north of Australia strengthened on Thursday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Marcus.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Marcus was located at latitude 10.3°S and longitude 132.6°E which put it about 190 miles (320 km) northeast of Darwin, Australia.  Marcus was moving toward the southeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology had issued a Warning for the portion of the coast from Maningrida to Daly River Mouth including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.  A watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Daly River Mouth to the Mitchell Plateau.

The circulation inside a Tropical Low north of Australia became better organized on Thursday which led the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to designate the system as Tropical Cyclone Marcus.  A primary band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the western and northern sides of the center of circulation.  Other bands of showers and storms were developing in other parts of the circulation.  Storms near the core of Marcus were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Marcus will be moving through an environment mostly favorable for intensification.  Marcus will be moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It is moving in an area where the upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  The only factor that could inhibit intensification is the proximity of Tropical Cyclone Marcus to the northern coast of Australia.  If the center of Marcus remains north of the coast, then the tropical cyclone is likely to intensify.  If the center moves over land, then a slow weakening would occur.

Tropical Cyclone Marcus is currently moving toward the southeast, but a subtropical ridge over Australia will turn Marcus toward the southwest when it approaches the coast.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Marcus will approach the northern coast of Australia in about 24 hours.  It is likely to move across the Cobourg Peninsula and over the Van Diemen Gulf.  Tropical Cyclone Marcus could be near Darwin in about 36 hours.  Marcus is forecast to continue southwest over the Timor Sea.

Tropical Cyclone Marcus is likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the northernmost portions of the Northern Territory of Australia.  The center will pass close to Darwin and it could bring gusty winds and drop heavy rain over that city.

Tropical Low Forms North of Australia

A Tropical Low formed north of Australia late on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of the Tropical Low as located at latitude 9.2°S and longitude 130.9°E which put it about 155 miles (250 km) north of Milikapiti, Australia.  It was moving toward the east at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (45 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Watch for the portion of the coast from Milingimbi to Daly River Mouth including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.

A center of circulation developed in an area of showers and thunderstorms north of Australia late on Wednesday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology classified the system as a Tropical Low.  The circulation was still organizing.  A short band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the southern and western sides of the center.  Other short rainbands were developing in other parts of the circulation.  Storms near the center of circulation were just beginning to generate upper level divergence.

The Tropical Low will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification.  It will mover over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  Westerly winds in the upper levels will cause some vertical wind shear, which will inhibit intensification.  However, the shear is not likely to be strong enough to prevent intensification.  The Tropical Low is likely to strengthen during the next 24 hours.  After that time the intensity will be influenced by how much of the circulation is over Australia.

The Tropical Low is being steered to the east by westerly winds north of Australia.  Those winds are forecast to weaken and the Tropical Low is expected to turn south toward the coast of Australia.  A subtropical ridge over Australia is expected to turn the Tropical Low toward the southwest in a day or so.  On its anticipated track the Tropical Low could be near the northern coast of Australia in 24 to 36 hours.  It could pass near the Cobourg Peninsula, Melville Island and Bathurst Island.  The Tropical Low could also bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the area near Darwin.

Tropical Cyclone 13P Develops Over the Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone 13P developed over the Coral Sea northwest of New Caledonia on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone 13P was located at latitude 17.2°S and longitude 159.7°E which put it about 550 miles (885 km) northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia.  It was moving toward the south at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation developed within an area of showers and thunderstorms over the Coral Sea on Monday.  The strongest rainband extended from northeast of the center, south of the the center and then west of the center.  Additional rainbands were forming in other part of the circulation.  Storms near the center of circulation were beginning to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the south of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone 13P will move through an environment favorable for intensification on Tuesday.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level trough near the east coast of Australia is producing northerly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  The core of Tropical Cyclone 13P is east of the strongest upper level winds, but the winds are causing moderate vertical wind shear.  Despite the vertical shear, the tropical cyclone is forecast to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 13P is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering it toward the south.  There is some variability in the guidance from the numerical models about the future strength of the ridge.  Some models do not strengthen the ridge much and those model predict that Tropical Cyclone 13P will move almost straight southward.  Other models increase the strength of the ridge and steer the tropical cyclone more toward the south-southwest.  A general motion toward the south or south-southwest seems most likely during the next 24 to 36 hours.  On its anticipated track the core of Tropical Cyclone 13P would pass west of New Caledonia, but it could move closer to the east coast of Australia.

Stronger Tropical Cyclone Kelvin Makes Landfall in Western Australia

A stronger Tropical Cyclone Kelvin made landfall on the coast of Western Australia near Anna Plains on Saturday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kelvin was located at latitude 19.4°S and longitude 121.9°E which put it about 60 miles (95 km) east-northeast of Sandfire, Australia.  Kelvin was moving toward the east-southeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (155 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for the portion of the coast from Broome to Wallal Downs and the Warning extends inland to include Telfer.

Tropical Cyclone Kelvin intensified very rapidly before it made landfall on the coast of Western Australia.  Kelvin strengthened in a few hours from a minimal tropical storm to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.  A small circular eye developed at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in the ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Kelvin was a small tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Kelvin intensified enough to be capable of causing wind damage, but locally heavy rain is the greater risk.  The small size of Kelvin will limit the area of heavy rain, but there could be enough rain in some areas to create the potential for floods.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued Flood Warnings for the North Kimberly District, the West Kimberly District, and the Sandy Desert.  Flood Watches were issued for the De Grey Rivers and the Salt Lake District Rivers.  Tropical Cyclone Kelvin will weaken as it moves farther inland, but Kelvin will take longer to spin down because it strengthened so much before landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Kelvin Develops Near Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Kelvin developed near the coast of Western Australia on Saturday.  At 1:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kelvin was located at latitude 19.2°S and longitude 120.9°E which put it about 60 miles (95 km) north-northeast of Wallal Downs, Australia.  Kelvin was moving toward the east at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for the portion of the coast from Broome to Pardoo Roadhouse and the Warning extended inland to include Telfer.

A Tropical Low meandered near the coast of Western Australia during the past several days.  The Tropical Low moved off the coast and strengthened into Tropical Cyclone Kelvin on Saturday.  The circulation of Kelvin is small.  Winds to tropical storm force only extend out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.  Even though it is small, the circulation of Tropical Cyclone Kelvin is well organized.  There is a distinct low level center of circulation.  Thunderstorms are occurring near the center of circulation.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Kelvin.  The storms in the core are generating upper level divergence which is pumping away mass.

Tropical Cyclone Kelvin will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Kelvin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It is moving near the southwestern end of an upper level ridge and the upper level winds are weak.  There is little vertical wind shear.  The only factor inhibiting intensification is the proximity to the coast of Western Australia.  Tropical Cyclone Kelvin is likely to intensify until it makes landfall on the coast of Western Australia.  Kelvin should gradually weaken when it moves inland.

The upper level ridge is steering Tropical Cyclone Kelvin slowly toward the east.  That general motion is forecast to continue for several more hours.  Kelvin is likely to move more toward the southeast when it nears the coast.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Kelvin could make landfall on the coast of Western Australia between Bidyadanga and Wallal Downs within the next 12 hours.  Kelvin will bring gusty winds to the coast, but locally heavy rain and flooding are greater risks.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has issued Flood Warnings for the North Kimberly District and the West Kimberly District,  Flood Watches have been issued for the Kimberly and North Pilbara District catchments.  An Initial Flood Warning has been issued for the Sandy Desert.

Tropical Cyclone Fehi Develops Near New Caledonia

Tropical Cyclone Fehi developed over the Coral Sea near New Caledonia on Sunday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fehi was located at latitude 19.7°S and longitude 162.2°E which put it about 360 miles (580 km) northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia.  Fehi was moving toward the south-southeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (90 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Fehi was not well organized for much of Sunday, but it exhibited signs of greater organization in recent hours.  An upper level low near eastern Australia was producing strong northwesterly winds that were blowing over the top of the circulation.  Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear for much of Sunday, but the shear appeared to decrease on Sunday night.  A distinct low level center of circulation was exposed on recent visible satellite images.  Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands south of the center of circulation.  More bands of showers and low clouds seemed to be forming in the northern half of the circulation.  A rainband appeared to be wrapping around the northern side of the circulation.  There was some upper level divergence to the southeast of Tropical Cyclone Fehi.

Tropical Cyclone Fehi will be moving through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next day or two.  Fehi is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  The upper level low will continue to cause vertical wind shear, but the shear may be small enough to allow for intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Fehi could intensify during the next 24 hours.  When Fehi moves farther south, it will move over much cooler water and the tropical cyclone will start to weaken.  Tropical Cyclone Fehi could make a transition to an extratropical cyclone in two or three days.

The upper low near eastern Australia is steering Tropical Cyclone Fehi toward the south-southeast.  A general motion toward the southeast is expected during the next two or three days.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Fehi is forecast to pass west of New Caledonia.  Although the center is likely to pass to the west of New Caledonia, rainbands on the eastern side of Fehi could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain.  Heavy could cause flash floods.  Tropical Cyclone Fehi could approach New Zealand in about three days.  Fehi could be a strong extratropical cyclone at that time.

Former Tropical Cyclone Hilda Drops Heavy Rain Over Western Australia

Former Tropical Cyclone Hilda dropped heavy rain over Western Australia on Friday.  At 11:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of former Tropical Cyclone Hilda was located at latitude 22.7°S and longitude 123.6°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) east-northeast of Telfer, Australia.  Hilda was moving toward the southeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Although the center has been over land for more than a day, the circulation of former Tropical Cyclone Hilda is still well organized.  There is a well defined low level center of circulation and strong thunderstorms are occurring around the center.  Several bands of thunderstorms are revolving around the core of the circulation.  Storms near the core are generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping away mass.  The upper level divergence is preventing the surface pressure from increasing and that is allowing the surface low to maintain its intensity.

Storms near the core of former Tropical Cyclone Hilda and the rainbands are dropping heavy rain over parts of Western Australia.  That region is normally dry and the potential for flash floods exists.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has issued Flood Warnings for the Sandy Desert and West Kimberly District.  They have also issued Flood Watches for the De Grey River, Salt Lakes and Warburton District Catchments.  The storms generated by former Tropical Cyclone Hilda could also cause localized wind damage, but the greatest risk is posed by the heavy rain.