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Tropical Depression Cristobal Meanders over the Yucatan

Tropical Depression Cristobal meandered over the Yucatan peninsula on Thursday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Cristobal was located at latitude 17.8°N and longitude 90.4°W which put it about 145 miles (235 km) south of Campeche, Mexico.  Cristobal was moving toward the east at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Depression Cristobal weakened on Thursday while the circulation meandered over the Yucatan peninsula.  Winds speeds gradually diminished because much of the circulation of Cristobal was over land.  Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  There were still strong thunderstorms in bands in the eastern half of the circulation.  Some of those bands were dropping heavy rain over the Yucatan peninsula, northern Belize and northern Guatemala.

Tropical Depression Cristobal will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea during the next several days.  The high will steer Cristobal toward the north.  On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Cristobal will move over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday.  Cristobal could approach the coast around the northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

Tropical Depression Cristobal will move into an environment somewhat favorable for intensification when it moves over the Gulf of Mexico.  Cristobal will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will be large enough to slow intensification but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent strengthening of Cristobal.  Tropical Depression Cristobal is likely to intensify back into a tropical storm over the Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Cristobal could approach the coast of Louisiana on Sunday.  Watches could be issued for portions of the coast on Friday.

Tropical Storm Cristobal Drops Heavy Rain on Campeche

Tropical Storm Cristobal dropped heavy rain on Campeche on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located at latitude 18.3°N and longitude 91.8°W which put it about 20 miles (35 km) south of Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico.  Cristobal was moving toward the southeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning remained in effect for the portion of the coast from Campeche to Coatzacoalcos,, Mexico.

The center of Tropical Storm Cristobal move slowly onto the coast of Mexico just west of Ciudad del Carmen on Wednesday.  The circulation around Cristobal began to weaken slowly as the center moved over land.  However, the large circulation around Tropical Storm Cristobal meant that a significant portion of the tropical storm was still over water.  That allowed Cristobal to extract energy from the Bay of Campeche to support its circulation.

A weather radar at Sabancuy, Mexico showed that the circulation around Tropical Storm Cristobal remained well organized.  Strong bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Cristobal.  The bands were dropping heavy rain over parts of Campeche and flooding was likely in some areas that received persistent heavy rain.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will be near the center of a larger counterclockwise circulation sometimes called a Central American Gyre (CAG) during the next 24 to 36 hours.  The steering currents are weak at the center of the CAG and it will likely cause Cristobal to move in a slow counterclockwise loop on Thursday.  The CAG will contract around Tropical Storm Cristobal during the next day or so.  A high pressure system over the western North Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea will start to steer Cristobal toward the north on Friday.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Cristobal could approach the north coast of the Gulf of Mexico by late in the upcoming weekend.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will weaken slowly while the center is over land.  It could weaken to a tropical depression on Thursday.  However, Cristobal will continue to drop heavy rain over Campeche and parts of the Yucatan peninsula.  Very serious flooding could result from the heavy rainfall.  Tropical Storm Cristobal is likely to strengthen once the center of circulation moves back over the Gulf of Mexico on Friday.

Tropical Depression Three Strengthens Into Tropical Storm Cristobal

Former Tropical Depression Three strengthened into Tropical Storm Cristobal on Tuesday.  At 12:15 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located at latitude 19.3°N and longitude 92.7°W which put it about 75 miles (120 km) northwest of Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico.  Cristobal was moving toward the southwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz, Mexico

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane investigating former Tropical Depression Three on Tuesday found sustained winds of 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Cristobal.  The formation of Tropical Storm Cristobal on June 2 is the earliest date for the formation on the third named storm over the Atlantic Basin (including the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico) in the historical record.

The reconnaissance plane found that the circulation around Tropical Storm Cristobal was continuing to get better organized.  More thunderstorms were forming near the center of circulation.  Bands of showers were revolving around the center of Cristobal.  Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the east of the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Cristobal will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge centered over the western Caribbean Sea.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be great enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Cristobal is likely to strengthen during the next 12 to 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will move around the northwestern part of a larger counterclockwise circulation sometimes called a Central American Gyre (CAG).  The CAG will steer Cristobal toward the southwest during the next few hours.  Tropical Storm Cristobal will move more toward the south on Tuesday night.  The larger CAG will slowly contract around the circulation of Cristobal during the next several days.  Tropical Storm Cristobal will meander slowly near the south coast of the Bay of Campeche while the CAG contracts.  Eventually, a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean will steer Cristobal northward toward the U.S.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will mix cooler water to the surface while it meanders over the southern Bay of Campeche.  The cooler water will reduce the energy available to Cristobal and the tropical storm could weaken during the middle of the week.  Tropical Storm Cristobal will weaken even more if the center of circulation moves over land.  Cristobal will drop heavy rain over Campeche, Tabasco and eastern Veracruz.  Prolonged heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Depression Three Develops Over Bay of Campeche

Tropical Depression Three developed over the Bay of Campeche on Monday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Three was located at latitude 19.6°N and longitude 91.2°W which put it about 55 miles (90 km) north-northeast of Carmen, Mexico.  The depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the portion of the coast from Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz.  

The remnants of the center of circulation of former Tropical Storm Amanda moved northward across Honduras and emerged over the eastern Bay of Campeche on Monday afternoon.  The National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Three and initiated advisories on the system.

More thunderstorms began to form on the northern side of Tropical Depression Three after the center of circulation moved over the eastern Bay of Campeche.  More thunderstorms were developing near the center.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms that included the remnants of the the circulation of former Tropical Storm Amanda were revolving around the center of the depression.

Tropical Depression Three will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The ridge will produce northerly winds which will blow toward the top of the depression.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Depression Three is likely to intensify into a tropical storm on Tuesday.

Tropical Depression Three will move around the northern side of a larger counterclockwise circulation sometimes called a Central American Gyre (CAG).  The CAG will steer the depression toward the west-northwest during the next 12 to 24 hours.   The depression could move toward the southwest on Tuesday when it moves around the northwestern part of the CAG.  On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Three could approach the coast around the southern Bay of Campeche.   The depression could drop heavy rain over Campeche, Tabasco and eastern Veracruz.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Depression Three Forms East of Florida

Tropical Depression Three formed east of Florida on Monday.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of a small low pressure system over the Northwestern Bahamas on Monday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) designated the system as Tropical Depression Three.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Three was located at latitude 25.6°N and longitude 78.6°W which put it about 120 miles (195 km) southeast of West Palm Beach, Florida.  The depression was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1013 mb.

More thunderstorms developed around the center of a small low pressure system that was embedded in the northern end of a tropical wave over the Bahamas on Monday.  Most of the thunderstorms were forming in bands on the eastern side of the circulation.  Based on data from satellites NHC determined that a closed circulation had formed at the surface.  There were fewer thunderstorms in the western half of the circulation.  Storms in the eastern half of the depression were exhibiting upper level divergence to the north and east.

Tropical Depression Three will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will be in under the western side of an upper level ridge.  The ridge could enhance upper level divergence on Tuesday.  The wind aloft will be relatively weak, although a thin upper trough near the east coast of the U.S. will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  The surface pressure is relatively high and that could slow any intensification.  A larger upper level trough will develop over the eastern U.S. on Tuesday and the trough will produce stronger southwesterly winds.  Those winds will create much more shear on Wednesday.

Tropical Depression Three will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer the depression toward the northwest during the next 12 hours.  Tropical Depression Three is likely to more more toward the north later on Tuesday when it reaches the western end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Depression Three could be near the southeast coast of Florida in about 12 hours.  The center is not currently forecast to make landfall, but the depression could bring squally weather and an increased chance for rain to the southeast coast of the U.S. during the next several days.

Hurricane Chris Weakens South of Nova Scotia

Hurricane Chris weakened slowly on Wednesday as it passed well south of Nova Scotia.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Chris was located at latitude 39.6°N and longitude 63.0°W.  Chris was moving toward the northeast at 29 m.p.h. (46 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (140 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Hurricane Chris exhibited the structure of a hurricane on Thursday, but the clouds did not rise quite as high because it was over slightly cooler water.  There was still an eye at the center of circulation.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  The rainbands were weaker in the southwestern part of the hurricane because some drier air was entering that part of the circulation.  Storms in the core of the circulation were generating upper level divergence.

Hurricane Chris is likely to weaken again on Thursday.  It will start to move over much cooler water where there is less energy in the upper ocean.  In addition an upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the upper part of the hurricane.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear.  The shear will undercut the upper level divergence and tilt the circulation toward the northeast with height.  Hurricane Chris will start to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone when the effects of the cooler water and stronger shear begin to alter the structure of the hurricane.

The upper level trough was steering Hurricane Chris rapidly toward the northeast and that motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Chris will be near Labrador on Thursday night.  The extratropical cyclone that results from the transition of Hurricane Chris will be near Iceland during the weekend.

Chris Strengthens to a Hurricane Southeast of Cape Hatteras

Former Tropical Storm Chris strengthened to a hurricane southeast of Cape Hatteras on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Chris was located at latitude 33.7°N and longitude 72.4°W which put it about 205 miles (330 km) east-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Chris was moving toward the northeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Hurricane Chris strengthened on Tuesday when it moved northeast of cooler water Chris had mixed to the surface while it was meandering off the coast of the Carolinas.  An eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) formed at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in the eastern side of that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Chris.  The strongest rainbands were in the eastern half of the circulation.  Drier air near the western half of the circulation was contributing to the weaker bands in that part of the hurricane.  Storms in the core of the circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the north and east of the hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 95 miles (155 km) from the center.

Hurricane Chris will move through an environment favorable for intensification on Wednesday.  Chris will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  An upper level trough over the northeastern U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of the hurricane.  The winds speeds are similar at most levels and they will not generate a lot of vertical wind shear during the next 24 hours.  Hurricane Chris will strengthen on Wednesday and it could intensify rapidly.  Chris will move over cooler water when it gets north of the Gulf Stream and it will start to weaken when that occurs.

The trough over the northeastern U.S. will steer Hurricane Chris toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track Chris will move away from the coast of North Carolina.  Chris could be south of Nova Scotia in about 36 hours and it could be near Newfoundland in several days.

Elsewhere, the remnants of former Tropical Storm Beryl crossed Hispaniola and they were moving toward the southeastern Bahamas.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Former Tropical Storm Chris was located at latitude 20.1°N and longitude 72.6°W which put it about 40 miles (65 km) northeast of Port de Paix, Haiti.  It was moving toward the northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1013 mb.  A reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Wednesday if there are signs that it could be reorganizing into a tropical cyclone.

Tropical Storm Chris Develops South of Cape Hatteras, Beryl Nears Lesser Antilles

Tropical Storm Chris developed south of Cape Hatteras on Sunday morning, while Tropical Storm Beryl neared the Lesser Antilles.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Chris was located at latitude 32.9°N and longitude 75.0°W which put it about 160 miles (260 km) south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Chris was nearly stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Thunderstorms developed closer to the center of circulation on Sunday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated former Tropical Depression Three as Tropical Storm Chris.  The circulation of Chris was organizing quickly.  A band of showers and thunderstorms was wrapping around the center of circulation.  Several other rainbands were revolving around the core of the tropical storm.  The bands northwest of the center were weaker because there was drier air in that part of Chris.  The storms near the center of circulation were beginning to generate upper level divergence.

Tropical Storm Chris will remain in an environment favorable for intensification for the next two or three days.  The water in the upper portion of the Atlantic Ocean east of the Carolinas is warmer than normal.  Tropical Storm Chris will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  Chris will be southeast of an upper level trough over the northeastern quarter of the U.S. and it will be under a small upper level ridge.  The upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Chris will continue to intensify and it could strengthen to a hurricane in the next day or two.

Since Tropical Storm Chris is under the small upper level ridge, the steering winds are weak.  Chris may not move much during the next 24 to 48 hours.  Tropical Storm Chris is forecast to linger of the coast of the Carolinas for several days.  Eventually an upper level trough will approach from the west and start to push Chris toward the northeast.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Beryl was nearing the Lesser Antilles on Sunday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located at latitude 14.4°N and longitude 57.9°W which put it about 210 miles (335 km) east of Martinique.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Dominica and Guadeloupe.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, St. Martin, Martinique, St. Lucia, and St. Barthelemy.

Thunderstorms continued to develop near the center of Tropical Storm Beryl on Sunday morning and the weakening trend halted at least temporarily.  Beryl remained a small tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  There were several bands of showers and thunderstorms in the eastern half of Tropical Storm Beryl.  The bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and low clouds.

Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast to into a region where the easterly winds in the lower levels are stronger.  That would increase the vertical wind shear and make it difficult for the circulation to stay vertically coherent.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  So, there will be enough energy in the upper ocean to support a tropical storm if the wind shear is not too strong.  Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast to weaken when it moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea, but that will depend on how strong the vertical shear gets.

Tropical Storm Beryl is moving south of the subtropical high over the Atlantic Ocean which is steering Beryl toward the west-northwest.  A general motion toward the west-northwest is forecast to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Beryl will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to St. Lucia, Martinique, Dominica and Guadeloupe during the next few hours,

Tropical Storm Beryl Weakens East of the Lesser Antilles

Tropical Storm Beryl weakened on Saturday as it move closer to the Lesser Antilles.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of circulation was located at latitude 13.1°N and longitude 54.3°W which put it about 495 miles (795 km) east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Dominica and Guadeloupe.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, Martinique, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, Barbados and St. Lucia.

Tropical Storm Beryl moved into a region where the easterly winds in the lower level were stronger and the increased vertical wind shear started to blow the lower part of the circulation to the west of the upper part of Beryl.  It also seemed to move into an area of drier air, which caused most of the stronger thunderstorms to weaken.  There was still a well organized circulation in the lower levels, but it weakened on Saturday.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation and on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Beryl in recent hours.  If those storms persist then Beryl could strengthen again, but if they dissipate quickly, then the tropical storm could weaken again on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Beryl will move through an environment that contains factors that are favorable for intensification and other factors that are unfavorable.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  It will move through an area where the lower level winds are stronger and so there will be more vertical wind shear.  There will be areas of moister air within a larger area of drier air.  If the recently developed thunderstorms persist on Sunday, then the Beryl could strengthen again.  However, if the storms dissipate in a few hours, then Tropical Storm Beryl could weaken further.  The small size of the circulation means that rapid changes in intensity can occur.

Tropical Storm Beryl was moving south of the subtropical high over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high was steering Beryl toward the west-northwest and that general motion is forecast to continue for the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Beryl could reach the Lesser Antilles on Sunday night.  There is a lot of uncertainty about how strong Beryl may be when it reaches those islands.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean Tropical Depression Three spun south of Cape Hatteras.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Three was located at latitude 32.9°N and longitude 75.1°W which put it about 160 miles (260 km) south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  It was nearly stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1014 mb.

Hurricane Beryl Prompts Watches for Lesser Antilles, TD 3 Forms Southeast of Carolinas

The potential approach of Hurricane Beryl prompted the issuance of Watches for some of the Lesser Antilles on Friday afternoon, while at the same time Tropical Depression Three formed southeast of the Carolinas.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 10.6°N and longitude 47.8°W which put it about 965 miles (1555 km) east-southeast of the Leeward Islands.  Beryl was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (155 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Dominica.  Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for Martinique, Guadeloupe, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy.

The circulation of Hurricane Beryl remains very small.  The pinhole is no longer visible on satellite imagery, although strong thunderstorms continue to develop near the center of circulation.  Short narrow bands or showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.  Winds to hurricane force only extend out about 10 miles (15 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 40 miles (65 km) from the center.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  It is moving south of an upper level ridge.  The ridge is producing easterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  However, the wind speeds are similar at all levels and there is currently little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Beryl could intensify on Saturday, but the circulation is so small that any increase in wind shear could cause rapid weakening.

The subtropical ridge over the Atlantic Ocean is north of Hurricane Beryl and the ridge has been steering Beryl toward the west.  A motion more toward the west-northwest is forecast during the weekend.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Beryl will approach the Lesser Antilles later on Sunday.  That is the reason why the Watches were issued for some of those islands.  Beryl could still be a hurricane when it gets to the Lesser Antilles, but there is a lot of uncertainty about the intensity forecast because the hurricane is so small.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, the National Hurricane Center designated an area of low pressure southeast of the coast of the Carolinas as Tropical Depression Three.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Three was located at latitude 32.2°N and longitude 73.8°W which put it about 230 miles (370 km) south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  It was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1016 mb.  Tropical Depression Three is forecast to meander off the coast of the Carolinas during the weekend.  It could strengthen into a tropical storm and there is a chance it could intensify into a hurricane next week.