Tag Archives: AL21

Tropical Depression Forms Near Nicaragua

Tropical Depression Twentyone formed over the southwest Caribbean Sea near Nicaragua on Monday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Twentyone was located at latitude 11.6°N and longitude 83.5°W which put it about 35 miles (55 km) southeast of Bluefields, Nicaragua. The tropical depression was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A low pressure system over the southwest Caribbean Sea near Nicaragua strengthened on Monday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Twentyone. More thunderstorms formed near the center of the tropical depression on Monday afternoon. Several short bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Twentyone will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico. The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Twentyone will move inland over southeast Nicaragua in a few hours. The tropical depression could drop heavy rain over parts of Nicaragua. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Tammy moved farther north of the Leeward Islands. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Tammy was located at latitude 22.3°N and longitude 63.8°W which put it about 695 miles (1115 km) south of Bermuda. Tammy was moving toward the north-northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Storm Wanda Speeds Northeast

Tropical Storm Wanda sped toward the northeast over the Atlantic Ocean west of the Azores on Sunday morning. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was located at latitude 38.5°N and longitude 35.5°W which put it about 460 miles (745 km) west of the Azores. Wanda was moving toward the northeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

An upper level trough and a cold front over the central Atlantic Ocean were steering Tropical Storm Wanda quickly to the northeast on Sunday morning. The upper level trough was also producing strong southwesterly winds that were blowing across the top of Wanda’s circulation. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear and the shear was causing Tropical Storm Wanda to weaken. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in a band in the southeastern part of Wanda. Bands in the other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The strongest winds were occurring with the thunderstorms in the southeastern part of Tropical Storm Wanda. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the southeastern quadrant of Wanda. The winds in the other parts of Wanda’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

The upper level trough and the cold front will continue to steer Tropical Storm Wanda toward the northeast during the next several days. Tropical Storm Wanda will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Wanda will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 20˚C. The upper level trough will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The cold front is moving faster than Tropical Storm Wanda and Wanda is likely to merge with the cold front during the next 24 hours. Strong vertical wind shear and cold water will cause Wanda to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone when it merges with the cold front. On its anticipated track Wanda could approach Ireland as an extratropical cyclone early next week.

Tropical Storm Wanda Turns Back to the South

Tropical Storm Wanda turned back toward the south over the central Atlantic Ocean west of the Azores on Friday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was located at latitude 40.6°N and longitude 37.8°W which put it about 605 miles (970 km) west-northwest of the Azores. Wanda was moving toward the south-southeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Storm Wanda moved back toward the south on Friday morning as it continued to meander west of the Azores. The circulation around Tropical Storm Wanda remained well organized. The circulation was circular and there was a well defined center. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Wanda. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) on the western side of Tropical Storm Wanda. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles on the eastern side of Wanda.

Tropical Storm Wanda will move through an environment that is somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Wanda will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 23˚C. Even though the water is colder than in the tropics, colder air in the middle and upper troposphere will allow for enough instability for the formation of thunderstorms. The thunderstorms that form will not rise as high into the atmosphere. Tropical Storm Wanda will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Wanda could extract enough energy from the Atlantic Ocean to be able to strengthen during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Wanda will move south of a high pressure system over the northern Atlantic Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will push Wanda back toward the south during the next 24 hours. An upper level trough near the east coast of the U.S. will move eastward during the next several days. The upper level trough will cause the high pressure system to weaken. When the high weakens, the upper level trough will steer Wanda toward the northeast on Saturday. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Wanda could approach the western Azores on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Wanda Wanders West of the Azores

Tropical Storm Wanda continued to wander over the Atlantic Ocean west of the Azores on Wednesday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was located at latitude 39.8°N and longitude 39.5°W which put it about 680 miles (1100 km) west-northwest of the Azores. Wanda was moving toward the north at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Tropical Storm Wanda exhibited a typical structure for a late season, high latitude tropical storm. A circular eyelike feature was present at the center of Wanda. The eyelike feature was surrounded by a ring of showers and thunderstorms. The strongest winds were occurring in the ring of showers and thunderstorms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the core of Tropical Storm Wanda. Since Wanda was over cooler Sea Surface Temperatures, the thunderstorms were not rising as high as they would have if Tropical Storm Wanda was over warmer water in the tropics. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) on the eastern side of Wanda. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the western half of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Wanda will move through an environment that is somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Wanda will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 22˚C. Even though the water is colder than in the tropics, colder air in the middle and upper troposphere will allow for enough instability for the formation of thunderstorms. Thunderstorms that form will not rise as high into the atmosphere and they will not generate a lot of upper level divergence which could inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Wanda will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Wanda could extract enough energy from the Atlantic Ocean to be able to strengthen during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Wanda will move west of a high pressure system over the eastern Atlantic Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high will steer Wanda toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours. A second high pressure system will move north of Tropical Storm Wanda on Friday. The second high will push Wanda back toward the southeast. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Wanda could approach the western Azores during the weekend.

Wanda Transitions to a Tropical Storm

Former Subtropical Storm Wanda made a transition to a tropical storm on Monday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was located at latitude 34.2°N and longitude 42.2°W which put it about 885 miles (1425 km) west-southwest of the Azores. Wanda was moving toward the east-northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The structure of former Subtropical Storm Wanda changed on Monday. The low level center of Wanda became separated from the upper level low that was previously over the top of it. So, the two centers were no longer vertically stacked. In addition, the wind field around Wanda contracted and the strongest winds were located closer to the center of circulation. Since the new structure of Wanda was more consistent with the structure of a tropical cyclone, the National Hurricane Center reclassified Wanda as a tropical storm.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Wanda was smaller. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Wanda. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the eastern side of Wanda’s circulation. Since Wanda was over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 24˚C, the thunderstorms were not as tall as ones that occur in tropical storms farther south. Bands in the western half of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The storms on the eastern side of Wanda generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Wanda will move through an environment that is somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Wanda will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24˚C. Tropical Storm Wanda will be on the eastern side of the axis of the upper level trough. The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Wanda’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear but the wind shear may be weak enough to allow for some intensification. Sinking, drier air could limit the formation of new thunderstorms on the western side of Wanda’s circulation and that could also inhibit intensification. Since Tropical Storm Wanda is now a smaller, more compact storm, it could extract enough energy from the Atlantic Ocean to be able to strengthen during the next 24 hours.

Since Tropical Storm Wanda is east of the axis of the upper level trough, southwesterly winds will steer Wanda toward the north-northeast during the next 36 hours. Wanda could move more toward the east later this week when it reaches a region where westerly winds are stronger. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Wanda could approach the western Azores at the end of the week.

Subtropical Storm Wanda Meanders West of the Azores

Subtropical Storm Wanda meandered over the central Atlantic Ocean west of the Azores on Sunday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Subtropical Storm Wanda was located at latitude 35.6°N and longitude 44.1°W which put it about 960 miles (1540 km) west of the Azores. Wanda was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

The circulation of Subtropical Storm Wanda meandered within the larger circulation of an upper level trough west of the Azores on Sunday. Some drier air appeared to enter Wanda’s circulation on Sunday and fewer thunderstorms developed around the center of the subtropical storm. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Subtropical Storm Wanda. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Wanda.

Subtropical Storm Wanda will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Wanda will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24˚C. It will remain under the axis of the upper level trough and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, drier air could limit the formation of new thunderstorms on the western side of Wanda’s circulation and that could inhibit intensification. Subtropical Storm Wanda could strengthen during the next 36 hours. If more thunderstorms form near the center of circulation Wanda could make a transition to a tropical storm during the next several days.

Subtropical Storm Wanda will meander within the upper level trough during the next 24 hours. The upper level trough will move east and it could move Wanda slowly toward the southeast during the next day or so. On its anticipated track Subtropical Storm Wanda could continue to meander west of the Azores for another day or two.

Subtropical Storm Wanda Develops West of the Azores

Subtropical Storm Wanda developed over the central Atlantic Ocean west of the Azores on Saturday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Subtropical Storm Wanda was located at latitude 36.2°N and longitude 45.4°W which put it about 1020 miles (1640 km) west of the Azores. Wanda was moving toward the southeast at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of a low pressure system over the central Atlantic Ocean and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Subtropical Storm Wanda. Subtropical Storm Wanda began as an extratropical cyclone that formed near the East Coast of the U.S. The extratropical cyclone brought very strong winds to the northeastern U.S. several days ago before moving toward the central Atlantic Ocean. The extratropical cyclone became vertically stacked where the surface low pressure system was under the axis of the upper level trough. The vertical wind shear decreased when the system became vertically stacked. When the extratropical cyclone moved southeast over warmer water, the temperature difference on the opposing sides of fronts decreased and the fronts weakened. More thunderstorms developed near the center of the low pressure system and it assumed a more circular shape. The strongest winds eventually started to blow closer to the center and the National Hurricane Center designated it as Subtropical Storm Wanda.

Subtropical Storm Wanda exhibited some characteristics of a tropical cyclone. Thunderstorms formed near the center of Wanda. Bands of showers and thunderstorms formed and started to revolve around the center of circulation. The strongest rainband wrapped around the northern and eastern sides of the center of Subtropical Storm Wanda. Even though Wanda exhibited some of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone, it was under the axis of an upper level trough, which is why it was classified as a subtropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Subtropical Storm Wanda.

Subtropical Storm Wanda will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Wanda will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24˚C. It will remain under the axis of the upper level trough and there will be little vertical wind shear. Subtropical Storm Wanda is likely to strengthen during the next 24 hours. There is a chance it could intensify to a hurricane during the next several days.

Subtropical Storm Wanda will move along with the upper level trough during the next 24 hours. The upper level trough will carry Wanda slowly toward the southeast during the next several days. On its anticipated track Subtropical Storm Wanda could meander west-southwest of the Azores for several days.

Hurricane Sally Makes Landfall Near Gulf Shores

The center of Hurricane Sally officially made landfall near Gulf Shores, Alabama on Wednesday morning.  At 6:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Sally was located at latitude 30.3°N and longitude 87.7°W which put it near Gulf Shores, Alabama.  Sally was moving toward the north-northeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure as 965 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County line in Florida.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border and from the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida.

Hurricane Sally strengthened to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Tuesday night as it ground its way slowly toward the Gulf Coast.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Sally.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Sally was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.0.  Hurricane Sally was capable of causing regional serious damage.  The winds were pushing water toward the coast and a storm surge of 9 to 12 feet (3 to 4 meters) was possible.

Hurricane Sally will move slowly northeast across Northwest Florida and Southeast Alabama.  Sally will slowly weaken as it moves inland, but it will cause widespread power outages in those areas.  Since Hurricane Sally will move slowly, it will drop heavy rain.  Flash Flood Watches extend from the Gulf Coast to Georgia and North Carolina.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Teddy rapidly intensified into a Category 2 hurricane, Hurricane Paulette passes south of Newfoundland and Tropical Storm Vicky moved farther away from the Cabo Verde Islands.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Teddy was located at latitude 15.4°N and longitude 49.0°W which put it about 820 miles (1315 km) east of the Lesser Antilles.  Teddy was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Paulette was located at latitude 41.9°N and longitude 49.1°W which put it about 385 miles (620 km) south-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland.  Paulette was moving toward the east-northeast at 29 m.p.h. (46 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 966 mb.

At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Vicky was located at latitude 21.6°N and longitude 33.9°W which put the center about 755 miles (1215 km) west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Vicky was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were ind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Hurricane Sally Continues to Grind Slowly Toward Mobile

Hurricane Sally continued to grind its way slowly north toward Mobile on Tuesday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Sally located at latitude 29.5°N and longitude 88.1°W which put it about 85 miles (135 km) south of Mobile, Alabama.  Sally was moving toward the north at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion coast from Bay St. Louis, Mississippi to Navarre, Florida.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Grand Isle, Louisiana to Bay St. Louis, Mississippi and from Navarre to Indian Pass, Florida.

Hurricane Sally did not change a lot on Tuesday.  A ragged eye with a diameter of 30 miles (48 km) was at the center of Sally.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Sally.  The strongest rainbands were in the northern half of the hurricane.  Bands in the southern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the northeast of the hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center.

Hurricane Sally was moving around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The steering winds around Sally were weak, but they were pushing the hurricane slowly toward the north.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Sally will make landfall near Mobile Bay on Wednesday morning.  Any small wobble to the left or to the right could affect the place of landfall.  An upper level trough over the western U.S. will move east during the next couple of days.  The trough will turn Sally more toward the east after it moves inland.

The intensity of Hurricane Sally may not change much in the 12 hours until it makes landfall.  Sally will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  However, the circulation will pull drier air into the southern part of the hurricane.  In addition, the eastern edge of the approaching upper level trough will produce some vertical wind shear.  The positive impact of warm water will be balanced by the negative impacts of drier air and slight shear.  So, the environment is likely to be neutral for intensification.  Hurricane Sally will start to weaken after the center moves inland.

Hurricane Sally was already producing water rises along the Central Gulf Coast.  A storm surge of up to 6 to 9 feet (2 to 3 meters) could occur near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.  Sally will cause mostly minor wind damage.  A prolonged period of strong winds could cause widespread power outages over southwestern Alabama and northwestern Florida.  Since Hurricane Sally will be moving slowly, it will drop heavy rain over southern Alabama and northwestern Florida.  Flash flooding will be likely in areas that receive the heaviest rainfall.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Paulette continued to speed away from Bermuda, Tropical Storm Teddy was well on its way to becoming a hurricane and Tropical Storm Vicky was weakening over the eastern Atlantic.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Paulette was located at latitude 39.5°N and longitude 55.0°W which put it about 740 miles (1190 km) northeast of Bermuda.  Paulette was moving toward the east-northeast at 30 m.p.h. (48 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Teddy was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 47.9°W which put it about 895 miles (1440 km) east of the Lesser Antilles.  Teddy was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Vicky was located at latitude 21.2°N and longitude 32.1°W which put it about 640 miles (1030 km) northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Vicky was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Hurricane Sally Grinds Slowly Toward the Gulf Coast

Hurricane Sally ground its way slowly toward the Gulf Coast on Monday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Sally was located at latitude 28.9°N and longitude 87.6°W which put it about 90 miles (145 km) east of the Mouth of the Mississippi River.  Sally was moving toward the west-northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Grand Isle, Louisiana to Navarre,, Florida including New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Morgan City, to Grand Isle, Louisiana and from Navarre to Indian Pass, Florida.

After intensifying rapidly earlier on Monday, Hurricane Sally exhibited a more steady state on Monday evening.  There was a circular eye with a diameter of 16 miles (26 km) at the center of Sally.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  There was a break in the south side of the ring.  The circulation of Hurricane Sally pulled some drier air around the southern side of the core.  The drier air may have contributed to the break in the eyewall.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the north and the east of the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Sally was relatively small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation in the northeastern quadrant of Sally.  Elsewhere, hurricane force winds were occurring mainly in the eyewall.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles from the center of circulation.  The winds were weakest in the southwestern quadrant of the hurricane.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Sally was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 27.0.  Sally was capable of causing localized serious damage.

Hurricane Sally will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Sally will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will be in a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Two other factors could inhibit further intensification of Hurricane Sally.  The drier air in the southern part of the circulation could limit the development of thunderstorms in that part of Sally.  The fact that Hurricane Sally is moving slowly means that it could mix cooler water to the surface which might reduce the energy available to drive the hurricane.  Even with the two inhibiting factors, Sally could intensify again on Tuesday.

Hurricane Sally will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system during the next 36 hours.  The steering currents are weak in that region and Sally will move slowly.  The slow movement of Hurricane Sally near the Gulf Coast means that any slight wobbles could affect the location of landfall.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Sally could approach the coasts of Mississippi and Alabama on Tuesday night.  A wobble to the left could bring Sally ashore in southeastern Louisiana while a wobble to the right would bring it closer to Northwest Florida.

Hurricane Sally will bring strong winds to the coast of Mississippi and Alabama.  Where the winds blow water toward the coast, Hurricane Sally could cause a storm surge of up to 12 feet (4 meters).  Hurricane Sally could drop nearly a foot (0.3 m) of rain on parts of southern Mississippi and Alabama.  Flash Flood Watches have been issued for parts of southern Mississippi, Alabama and Northwest Florida.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Paulette was speeding away from Bermuda, and Tropical Storms Teddy and Vicky organized over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Paulette was located at latitude 35.7°N and longitude 62.3°W which put it about 275 miles (440 km) north-northeast of Bermuda.  Paulette was moving toward the northeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Teddy was located at latitude 13.2°N and longitude 45.0°W which put it about 1100 miles (1770 km) east of the Lesser Antilles.  Teddy was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Vicky was located at latitude 19.5°N and longitude 29.9°W which put it about 455 miles (735 km) west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Vicky was moving toward the mprthwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.