Tag Archives: Puerto Rico

Tropical Storm Dorian Strengthens, Hurricane Warnings for Virgin Islands

Tropical Storm Dorian strengthened on Wednesday morning and it was on the verge of becoming a hurricane.  Hurricane Warnings were issued for Vieques, Culebra, the U.S. Virgin Islands and the British Virgin Islands. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located at latitude 17.5°N and longitude 64.5°W which put it about 25 miles (40 km) south of St. Croix.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Vieques, Culebra, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and the British Virgin Islands.  A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch was in effect for Puerto Rico.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast of the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Dorian exhibited much greater organization on Wednesday morning.  A ring of strong thunderstorms wrapped almost completely around the center of circulation.  The strongest winds were occurring in the northeastern part of that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Dorian.  Storms near near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the north and northeast of the tropical storm.  The circulation also increased in size on Wednesday morning.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Dorian will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few days.  Dorian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move northeast of an upper level low during the next 24 hours.  The low will produce some southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation, but the winds will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  The wind shear will decrease on Friday and Dorian could strengthen into a major hurricane near the Bahamas.

The upper level low will help to steer Tropical Storm Dorian toward the northwest during the next 24 to 36 hours.  A ridge of high pressure will build north of Dorian on Friday.  The ridge will block Dorian from moving north and it will steer Dorian toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Dorian will pass over the Virgin Islands near the eastern end of Puerto Rico today.  Dorian will be near the northern Bahamas on Saturday and it could approach the east coast of Florida by Sunday night.  Dorian could be a major hurricane when it approaches the east coast of the U.S.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, former Tropical Storm Erin weakened to a tropical depression.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Erin was located at latitude 33.6°N and longitude 72.8°W which put it about 190 miles (305 km) southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Erin was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Dorian Moves Toward Puerto Rico

Tropical Storm Dorian moved toward Puerto Rico on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 63.0°W which put it about 275 miles (440 km) east-southeast of Ponce, Puerto Rico.  Dorian was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was issued for Puerto Rico.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, the U.S. Virgin Islands and the British Virgin Islands.  A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the coast of the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Puerto Plata.

The original low level center of Tropical Storm Dorian passed south of Barbados and St. Lucia on Tuesday morning.  Dorian dropped heavy rain and there were reports of flash floods on Martinique.  The original center weakened on Tuesday afternoon and a new low level center formed about 60 miles farther to the north.  The formation of a new center of circulation caused the forecast future track of Tropical Storm Dorian to be shifted northward as well.

Even with the formation of a new center of circulation, the overall circulation around Tropical Storm Dorian did not change much on Tuesday.  The circulation around Dorian remained small.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  A broken ring of thunderstorms surrounded the new low level center.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving the center of Tropical Storm Dorian.  Storms near the center were producing upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the north of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Dorian will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification on Wednesday.  Dorian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level low northwest of Puerto Rico will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, which will inhibit intensification.  A large mass of drier air is north of Tropical Storm Dorian and the drier air could also inhibit intensification if it gets pulled into the circulation around Dorian.  The small size of the circulation around Tropical Storm Dorian means that it could weaken or strengthen quickly if the environmental conditions change significantly.  Dorian is likely to weaken when it crosses Puerto Rico on Wednesday night.

The upper low northwest of Puerto Rico will help to steer Tropical Storm Dorian toward the northwest on Wednesday.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Dorian could reach Puerto Rico by Wednesday evening.  Dorian will bring gusty winds and it will drop locally heavy rain on Puerto Rico.  Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  A high pressure system will build north of Tropical Storm Dorian on Thursday and Friday.  The high will turn Dorian back toward the west-northwest.  Dorian could approach the east coast of Florida on Sunday.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Depression Six strengthened into Tropical Storm Erin southeast of Cape Hatteras on Tuesday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Erin was located at latitude 31.9°N and longitude 72.1°W which put it about 300 miles (485 km) southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Erin was moving toward the west at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.  Tropical Storm Erin is forecast to move northeast toward Nova Scotia.

Tropical Storm Dorian Brings Wind and Rain to Barbados

Tropical Storm Dorian brought wind and rain to Barbados on Monday night.  Observations made by a U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated that the center of Tropical Storm Dorian passed just south of Barbados on Monday night.  Dorian brought winds to tropical storm force and locally heavy rain.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located at latitude 13.2°N and longitude 59.7°W which put it about 95 miles (155 km) east-southeast of St. Lucia.  Dorian was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Barbados, St. Lucia, Martinique, St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for Puerto Rico, Grenada, Dominica, Saba and St. Eustatius.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Dorian remained fairly small on Monday.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Thunderstorms were occurring primarily in bands in the northern half of the circulation.  Bands in the southern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Dorian were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Dorian will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification.  Dorian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  Tropical Storm Dorian will move south of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear should not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Dorian will move just south of a large mass of drier air.  It appears that some drier air will get pulled into circulation at times and the drier air will interrupt periods of intensification.  Since the circulation around Tropical Storm Dorian is very small, Dorian could strengthen or weaken very quickly if environmental conditions change.

Tropical Storm Dorian will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Dorian toward the west-northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Dorian will pass near St. Lucia on Tuesday morning.  Dorian could approach Puerto Rico on Wednesday.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Depression Six formed off the southeast coast of the U.S.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Six was located at latitude 31.5N and longitude 72.2W which put it about 320 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. It was moving toward the east at 3 m.p.h. The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

Tropical Storm Kirk Brings Rain to Lesser Antilles

Tropical Storm Kirk brought rain to some of the Lesser Antilles on Friday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 63.6°W which put it about 360 miles (575 km) south-southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico.  Kirk was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.  All Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches have been discontinued.

An upper level trough over the Caribbean Sea is producing strong westerly winds which is blowing over the top of Tropical Storm Kirk.  Those winds are causing strong vertical wind shear, which is causing the strongest thunderstorms to occur on the far eastern side of the circulation.  Bands west of the center of circulation and near the center consist primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The center of circulation is over the eastern Caribbean Sea and the heavy rain is falling hours after the center passed the Lesser Antilles.  Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Kirk will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the weekend.  Kirk will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  However, the upper level trough will continue cause strong vertical wind shear for the next several days.  Tropical Storm Kirk will likely weaken to a tropical depression or a tropical wave during the next 24 to 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Kirk will move south of a subtropical high pressure system that is over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Kirk in a general west-northwesterly direction during the weekend.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Kirk should stay south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.  Kirk or its remnants could be near Jamaica in a few days.

Tropical Storm Chris Develops South of Cape Hatteras, Beryl Nears Lesser Antilles

Tropical Storm Chris developed south of Cape Hatteras on Sunday morning, while Tropical Storm Beryl neared the Lesser Antilles.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Chris was located at latitude 32.9°N and longitude 75.0°W which put it about 160 miles (260 km) south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Chris was nearly stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Thunderstorms developed closer to the center of circulation on Sunday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated former Tropical Depression Three as Tropical Storm Chris.  The circulation of Chris was organizing quickly.  A band of showers and thunderstorms was wrapping around the center of circulation.  Several other rainbands were revolving around the core of the tropical storm.  The bands northwest of the center were weaker because there was drier air in that part of Chris.  The storms near the center of circulation were beginning to generate upper level divergence.

Tropical Storm Chris will remain in an environment favorable for intensification for the next two or three days.  The water in the upper portion of the Atlantic Ocean east of the Carolinas is warmer than normal.  Tropical Storm Chris will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  Chris will be southeast of an upper level trough over the northeastern quarter of the U.S. and it will be under a small upper level ridge.  The upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Chris will continue to intensify and it could strengthen to a hurricane in the next day or two.

Since Tropical Storm Chris is under the small upper level ridge, the steering winds are weak.  Chris may not move much during the next 24 to 48 hours.  Tropical Storm Chris is forecast to linger of the coast of the Carolinas for several days.  Eventually an upper level trough will approach from the west and start to push Chris toward the northeast.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Beryl was nearing the Lesser Antilles on Sunday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located at latitude 14.4°N and longitude 57.9°W which put it about 210 miles (335 km) east of Martinique.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Dominica and Guadeloupe.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, St. Martin, Martinique, St. Lucia, and St. Barthelemy.

Thunderstorms continued to develop near the center of Tropical Storm Beryl on Sunday morning and the weakening trend halted at least temporarily.  Beryl remained a small tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  There were several bands of showers and thunderstorms in the eastern half of Tropical Storm Beryl.  The bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and low clouds.

Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast to into a region where the easterly winds in the lower levels are stronger.  That would increase the vertical wind shear and make it difficult for the circulation to stay vertically coherent.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  So, there will be enough energy in the upper ocean to support a tropical storm if the wind shear is not too strong.  Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast to weaken when it moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea, but that will depend on how strong the vertical shear gets.

Tropical Storm Beryl is moving south of the subtropical high over the Atlantic Ocean which is steering Beryl toward the west-northwest.  A general motion toward the west-northwest is forecast to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Beryl will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to St. Lucia, Martinique, Dominica and Guadeloupe during the next few hours,

Tropical Storm Beryl Weakens East of the Lesser Antilles

Tropical Storm Beryl weakened on Saturday as it move closer to the Lesser Antilles.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of circulation was located at latitude 13.1°N and longitude 54.3°W which put it about 495 miles (795 km) east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Dominica and Guadeloupe.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, Martinique, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, Barbados and St. Lucia.

Tropical Storm Beryl moved into a region where the easterly winds in the lower level were stronger and the increased vertical wind shear started to blow the lower part of the circulation to the west of the upper part of Beryl.  It also seemed to move into an area of drier air, which caused most of the stronger thunderstorms to weaken.  There was still a well organized circulation in the lower levels, but it weakened on Saturday.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation and on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Beryl in recent hours.  If those storms persist then Beryl could strengthen again, but if they dissipate quickly, then the tropical storm could weaken again on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Beryl will move through an environment that contains factors that are favorable for intensification and other factors that are unfavorable.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  It will move through an area where the lower level winds are stronger and so there will be more vertical wind shear.  There will be areas of moister air within a larger area of drier air.  If the recently developed thunderstorms persist on Sunday, then the Beryl could strengthen again.  However, if the storms dissipate in a few hours, then Tropical Storm Beryl could weaken further.  The small size of the circulation means that rapid changes in intensity can occur.

Tropical Storm Beryl was moving south of the subtropical high over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high was steering Beryl toward the west-northwest and that general motion is forecast to continue for the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Beryl could reach the Lesser Antilles on Sunday night.  There is a lot of uncertainty about how strong Beryl may be when it reaches those islands.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean Tropical Depression Three spun south of Cape Hatteras.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Three was located at latitude 32.9°N and longitude 75.1°W which put it about 160 miles (260 km) south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  It was nearly stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1014 mb.

Hurricane Beryl Prompts Watches for Lesser Antilles, TD 3 Forms Southeast of Carolinas

The potential approach of Hurricane Beryl prompted the issuance of Watches for some of the Lesser Antilles on Friday afternoon, while at the same time Tropical Depression Three formed southeast of the Carolinas.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 10.6°N and longitude 47.8°W which put it about 965 miles (1555 km) east-southeast of the Leeward Islands.  Beryl was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (155 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Dominica.  Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for Martinique, Guadeloupe, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy.

The circulation of Hurricane Beryl remains very small.  The pinhole is no longer visible on satellite imagery, although strong thunderstorms continue to develop near the center of circulation.  Short narrow bands or showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.  Winds to hurricane force only extend out about 10 miles (15 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 40 miles (65 km) from the center.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  It is moving south of an upper level ridge.  The ridge is producing easterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  However, the wind speeds are similar at all levels and there is currently little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Beryl could intensify on Saturday, but the circulation is so small that any increase in wind shear could cause rapid weakening.

The subtropical ridge over the Atlantic Ocean is north of Hurricane Beryl and the ridge has been steering Beryl toward the west.  A motion more toward the west-northwest is forecast during the weekend.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Beryl will approach the Lesser Antilles later on Sunday.  That is the reason why the Watches were issued for some of those islands.  Beryl could still be a hurricane when it gets to the Lesser Antilles, but there is a lot of uncertainty about the intensity forecast because the hurricane is so small.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, the National Hurricane Center designated an area of low pressure southeast of the coast of the Carolinas as Tropical Depression Three.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Three was located at latitude 32.2°N and longitude 73.8°W which put it about 230 miles (370 km) south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  It was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1016 mb.  Tropical Depression Three is forecast to meander off the coast of the Carolinas during the weekend.  It could strengthen into a tropical storm and there is a chance it could intensify into a hurricane next week.

Major Hurricane Maria Moves Slowly Toward the Turks and Caicos

Major Hurricane Maria moved slowly toward the Turks and Caicos on Thursday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Maria was located at latitude 21.0°N and longitude 80.2°W which put it about 65 miles (110 km) east-southeast of the Turks and Caicos.  Maria was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for the Turks and Caicos, the Southeastern Bahamas and the portion of the coast from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic.  Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for portion of the coast from Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic to the northern border with Haiti.  Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for the Central Bahamas.

The core of Hurricane Maria reorganized on Thursday as the center moved over the warm water north of the Dominican Republic.  A large eye formed at the center of circulation.  The eye had a diameter of 40 miles (64 km).  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.   Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Maria.  Crossing over Puerto Rico and an eyewall replacement cycle produced a larger circulation.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 160 miles (260 km) from the center.

Hurricane Maria will move through an environment favorable for strong hurricanes.  Maria will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  Hurricane Maria will remain in an area where the upper level winds are weak and there is likely to be little vertical wind shear for at least one more day.  The outer portion of the southern half of Hurricane Maria’s circulation is still passing over the Dominican Republic.   Additional friction in the part of the circulation passing over land could reduce the amount of intensification that occurs.  Hurricane Maria is likely to strengthen on Friday and it could reach Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Hurricane Maria is nearing the western end of the subtropical high pressure system which is steering the hurricane toward the northwest.  Maria is entering an area where the steering currents are weaker and the motion of the hurricane slowed on Thursday night.  The numerical models are still forecasting that Hurricane Maria will turn north on Friday when it rounds the western end of the high pressure system.  Hurricane Maria is moving a little farther west than has been forecast and that trend could continue on Friday.  If Hurricane Maria does move farther west than anticipated, then the core of Maria could come very close to the Turks and Caicos and parts of the Southeastern Bahamas.

Even if the center of Hurricane Maria does not pass directly over the Turks and Caicos and Southeastern Bahamas, bands of showers and thunderstorms will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain.  Maria will also cause a storm surge on the coasts of those islands.  If the center of Maria passes directly over them, the hurricane is capable of causing major damage.  The southern part of Maria’s circulation is bringing heavy rain to parts of the Dominican Republic and there is the potential for flash floods.

Hurricane Maria Moves Away from Puerto Rico

Hurricane Maria moved away from Puerto Rico on Wednesday night after causing significant wind damage and serious flash floods.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Maria was located at latitude 19.2°N and longitude 67.9°W which put it about 55 miles (85 km) northeast of Punta Cana, Dominican Republic.  Maria was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the Turks and Caicos, the Southeastern Bahamas, and the portion of the coast from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Engano to Isla Saona, Dominican Republic.  Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the portions of the coast from Puerto Plata to the northern border with Haiti and from Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque, Dominican Republic.

Hurricane Maria made landfall on the southeast coast of Puerto Rico near Yabucoa on Wednesday morning.  Maria was a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale at the time of landfall.  Hurricane Maria moved northwest across Puerto Rico and the center emerged over the Atlantic Ocean near Arecibo on Thursday afternoon.

Hurricane Maria weakened as the core of the hurricane moved across Puerto Rico.  The mountains on Puerto Rico disrupted the circulation in the lower levels of Maria, but the middle and upper portions of the circulation remained intact.  Hurricane Maria was in the middle of an eyewall replacement cycle when it made landfall in Puerto Rico.  The timing of landfall may have caused Maria to weaken more than it would have if there had not been an eyewall replacement cycle.  The inner eyewall which contained the strongest winds dissipated at Hurricane Maria moved across Puerto Rico.  The strongest winds are occurring in the remaining outer eyewall.  The eyewall replacement cycle contributed to an increase in the size of the circulation of Hurricane Maria.  Wind to hurricane force extend out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.  Wind to tropical storm force extend out about 160 miles (260 km) from the center.

Hurricane Maria will move through an environment favorable for intensification on Thursday.  Maria will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is not much vertical wind shear.  It could take another 12 to 24 hours for the lower portions of the circulation to reorganize.   The reorganization could limit the rate of intensification.  In addition the center will pass near the Dominican Republic.  Some of the southern part of the circulation will be over land and that could also limit intensification until Maria moves farther away from Hispaniola.

Hurricane Maria is moving around the southwestern portion of the subtropical high over the Atlantic Ocean.  That high has been steering Maria toward the northwest.  Many of the numerical models are forecasting that the high will weaken and Maria will turn toward the north on Thursday.  If the high remains stronger than the models are forecasting, then Hurricane Maria will move farther toward the west.  Hurricane Maria seems to have moved near the left side of the guidance from the numerical models in recent days.  On its forecast track the center of Hurricane Maria will move north of the Dominican Republic on Thursday.  Hurricane Maria could be near the Turks and Caicos on Friday.

Hurricane Maria is still capable of producing extensive significant damage.  Maria will drop heavy rain on parts of the Dominican Republic and there could be flash floods in some places where there is steeper terrain.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Jose move slowly east-northeast southeast of Massachusetts.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Jose was located at latitude 39.5°N and longitude 68.2°W which put it about 150 miles (245 km) southeast of Nantucket.  Jose was moving toward the east-northeast at 6 m.p.h. (9 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were ind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach including Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard, Nantucket and Cape Cod.

Category 5 Hurricane Maria Bearing Down on Puerto Rico

Category 5 Hurricane Maria was bearing down on Puerto Rico on Tuesday night.  The eye was very near St. Croix.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Maria was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 64.7°W which put it about 30 miles (45 km) south-southeast of St. Croix and about 120 miles (190 km) southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico.  Maria was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 215 m.p.h. (345 m/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 909 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, the U.S. Virgin Islands, the British Virgin Islands, and for the portion of the coast from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic.  Hurricane Watches were in effect for the Turks and Caicos, the Southeastern Bahamas, Saba, St. Maarten, St. Martin, St. Eustatius, St. Barthelemy, and the portion of the coast from Isla Saona to Cabo Engano, Dominican Republic.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, the portion of the coast from Puerto Plata,, Dominican Republic to the northern border with Haiti and for the portion of the coast from Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque, Dominican Republic,

Hurricane Maria is a very well organized powerful hurricane.  It has a small inner eye and a second outer eyewall extends most of the way around the inner eyewall.  The strongest winds are occurring in the inner eyewall.  Additional spiral bands are revolving around the core of the circulation.  The concentric eyewalls have caused the circulation of Hurricane Maria to increase in size.  Winds to hurricane force now extend out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 160 miles (260 km) from the center.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Maria is 40.4.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 19.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 59.6.  Those indices indicate that Hurricane Maria is capable of causing regional catastrophic damage.

Hurricane Maria will continue to move through an environment favorable for powerful hurricanes until it reaches Puerto Rico.  Maria will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  If the outer eyewall completely encircles the inner eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause some weakening.  Hurricane Maria will weaken more if the center moves directly over Puerto Rico.  The amount of weakening will depend on the stage of the eyewall replacement cycle at the time of landfall.

Hurricane Maria is being steered toward the west-northwest by the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The western end of the high is forecast to weaken during the next several days.  The weakening of the high will allow Hurricane Maria to move more toward the north.  The core of Hurricane Maria will pass near or over St. Croix during the next few hours.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Maria will reach Puerto Rico on Wednesday morning.

Hurricane Maria is a very dangerous hurricane.  It is capable of causing catastrophic damage.  Maria will also drop very heavy rain over Puerto Rico and there is the potential for significant flash flooding.  Maria could also cause a storm surge of up to 12 feet (4 meters) along the coast.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Jose weakened to a tropical storm east of the U.S.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Jose was located at latitude 37.9°N and longitude 70.8°W which put it about 230 miles (375 km) south of Nantucket.  Jose was moving toward the northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard, Nantucket and Cape Cod.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson.