Tropical Storm Dorian Brings Wind and Rain to Barbados

Tropical Storm Dorian brought wind and rain to Barbados on Monday night.  Observations made by a U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated that the center of Tropical Storm Dorian passed just south of Barbados on Monday night.  Dorian brought winds to tropical storm force and locally heavy rain.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located at latitude 13.2°N and longitude 59.7°W which put it about 95 miles (155 km) east-southeast of St. Lucia.  Dorian was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Barbados, St. Lucia, Martinique, St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for Puerto Rico, Grenada, Dominica, Saba and St. Eustatius.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Dorian remained fairly small on Monday.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Thunderstorms were occurring primarily in bands in the northern half of the circulation.  Bands in the southern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Dorian were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Dorian will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification.  Dorian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  Tropical Storm Dorian will move south of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear should not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Dorian will move just south of a large mass of drier air.  It appears that some drier air will get pulled into circulation at times and the drier air will interrupt periods of intensification.  Since the circulation around Tropical Storm Dorian is very small, Dorian could strengthen or weaken very quickly if environmental conditions change.

Tropical Storm Dorian will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Dorian toward the west-northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Dorian will pass near St. Lucia on Tuesday morning.  Dorian could approach Puerto Rico on Wednesday.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Depression Six formed off the southeast coast of the U.S.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Six was located at latitude 31.5N and longitude 72.2W which put it about 320 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. It was moving toward the east at 3 m.p.h. The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

Tropical Storm Podul Forms East of Luzon

Tropical Storm Podul formed east of Luzon on Monday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Podul was located at latitude 15.1°N and longitude 125.2°E which put it about 250 miles (400 km) east of Baler, Philippines.  Podul was moving a little to the north of due west at 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A low level center of circulation in an area of thunderstorms east of Luzon was visible in satellite imagery on Monday night and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Podul.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Podul was not well organized.  Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in broken bands west of the center of circulation.  Bands in the eastern half of Podul consisted primarily showers and lower clouds.  Tropical Storm Podul was moving south of an upper level ridge over eastern Asia and the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge was producing easterly winds which were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The shear was contributing to the poorly organized circulation around Podul.

Tropical Storm Podul will move through an environment mostly unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours,  Podul will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  However, the upper level ridge will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The center will move across northern Luzon and increased friction will weaken the circulation.  Tropical Storm Podul could weaken to a tropical depression when it crosses Luzon.  Podul could strengthen in the middle of the week when it moves west of Luzon and out over the South China Sea.

Tropical Storm Podul will move south of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Podul a little to the north of due west during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Podul will move across northern Luzon on Tuesday. Podul will cause gusty winds and locally heavy rain.  The rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Storm Podul will move west of Luzon and over the South China Sea in about 24 hours.  Podul could approach Hainan Island in about 72 hours.

Stronger Tropical Storm Dorian Causes Warnings for Lesser Antilles

Tropical Storm Dorian strengthened on Sunday and the threat it posed caused warnings and watches to be issued for some of the Lesser Antilles.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Barbados, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines.  Tropical Storm Watches were issued for Grenada and Martinique.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located at latitude 11.5°N and longitude 54.2°W which put it about 375 miles (605 km) east-southeast of Barbados.  Dorian was moving a little to the north of due west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Dorian exhibited greater organization on Sunday afternoon.  The inner end of a band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped tightly around the northern and western sides of the center of circulation.  The strongest winds were occurring in that band.  Several other bands of showers and storms were revolving around the small core of Dorian.  Storms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the north of the tropical storm.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Dorian was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Dorian will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification.  Dorian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are relatively weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  A large area of drier air is north of Tropical Storm Dorian.  If the circulation draws drier air into the tropical storm, it would interrupt intensification.  Tropical Storm Dorian is likely to strengthen during the next 24 to 48 hours.  Since Dorian has a small circulation, it could intensify or weaken quickly if the environmental conditions change.

Tropical Storm Dorian will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the North Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Dorian toward the west-northwest during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Dorian could approach Barbados late on Monday.  It could be a hurricane by that time.  Dorian could reach the southern and central Lesser Antilles on Tuesday.  Tropical Storm Dorian could bring strong winds and heavy rain to those islands.

Tropical Storm Bailu Makes Landfall in Eastern China

Tropical Storm Bailu made landfall on the east coast of China on Saturday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Bailu was located at latitude 24.3°N and longitude 116.4°E which put it about 10 miles west of Dabu, China.  Bailu was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Storm Bailu made landfall on the east coast of China near Yunxiao on Saturday night.  The northern half of Bailu passed over Taiwan earlier on Saturday and the rainbands in that half of the tropical storm weakened after they passed over the mountains on Taiwan.  The heaviest rain was falling in the southern half of Tropical Storm Bailu.  Bailu will continue to move toward the west-northwest and it will weaken when it goes farther inland.  Tropical Storm Bailu will drop heavy rain over parts of Guangdong and Fujian.  It could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Depression Five Strengthens Into Tropical Storm Dorian

Former Tropical Depression Five strengthened into Tropical Storm Dorian east of the Lesser Antilles on Saturday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located at latitude 10.7°N and longitude 49.1°W which put it about 725 miles (1165 km) east southeast of Barbados.  Dorian was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

The circulation around former Tropical Depression Five exhibited greater organization on Saturday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center determined that the system had strengthened to Tropical Storm Dorian.  A band of thunderstorms close to the center of circulation wrapped around the western and southern sides of the center.  The strongest winds were occurring in that band of storms.  Other bands in the western half of the circulation started to revolve around the center of circulation.  Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the west of the tropical storm.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Dorian was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Dorian will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Dorian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move south of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The shear will slow the rate of intensification.  Tropical Storm Dorian will move south of a region of drier air.  If drier air is pulled into the circulation, it will interrupt intensification.  Since Tropical Storm Dorian is so small, it could strengthen or weaken very quickly if the environment changes.  Dorian could strengthen into a hurricane in two or three days.

Tropical Storm Dorian will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Dorian toward the west-northwest during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Dorian could approach the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday.  Dorian could strengthen into a hurricane by that time.  Watches and/or warnings could be issued for parts of the Lesser Antilles on Sunday.

Tropical Depression Five Forms East of Lesser Antilles

Tropical Depression Five formed east of the Lesser Antilles on Saturday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Five was located at latitude 10.4°N and longitude 47.9°W which put it about 805 miles (1300 km) east-southeast of Barbados.  It was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

Data from satellites indicated that there was a closed circulation around an area of low pressure east of the Lesser Antilles on Saturday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Five.  The circulation around Tropical Depression Five was still organizing.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands west of the center of circulation.  Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The circulation around Tropical Depression Five was relatively small.

Tropical Depression Five will move through an environment favorable for slow intensification.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  The depression will move south of an upper level ridge over the western north Atlantic Ocean.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will cause some vertical wind shear.  There will be some drier air just to the north of the depression.  If the depression pulls some of the drier air into the circulation, that could also interrupt intensification.  The combination of some wind shear and intrusions of drier air will limit the rate at which Tropical Depression Five strengthens.  The depression is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm.

Tropical Depression Five will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer the depression toward the west-northwest during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Five could approach the Lesser Antilles on Monday night or Tuesday.  The depression could be a tropical storm by that time.

Tropical Storm Bailu Brings Wind and Rain to Taiwan

Tropical Storm Bailu brought wind and rain to Taiwan early on Saturday.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Bailu was located at latitude 22.6°N and longitude 120.2°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) northwest of Hengchun, Taiwan.  Bailu was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

The broad center of Tropical Storm Bailu moved across southern Taiwan early on Saturday.  Bailu produced winds to tropical storm force over parts of Taiwan, but its greater effect was heavy rain.  Since Tropical Storm Bailu passed near the southern end of Taiwan, its counterclockwise rotation produced easterly winds over much of Taiwan.  Those winds pushed air up the mountains, which enhanced rising motion and caused heavy rain to fall over eastern Taiwan.  Estimates of rainfall from radars indicated that up to one foot (300 mm) of rain could have fallen over southeastern Taiwan.  That much rain is likely to have caused flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Bailu will continue to move southwest of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will continue to steer Bailu toward the northwest.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Bailu will make landfall on the east coast of China between Xiamen and Shantou in about 12 hours.  Bailu will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of eastern China.  Heavy rain could also produce flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Bailu on Track Toward Taiwan

Tropical Storm Bailu remained on a track toward Taiwan on Thursday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Bailu was located at latitude 19.0°N and longitude 125.6°E which put it about 385 miles (615 km) east-southeast of Hengchun, Taiwan.  Bailu was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Bailu was large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 170 miles (280 km) from the center of circulation.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms in Bailu were occurring in bands in the southern half of the circulation.  Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Tropical Storm Bailu was moving south of an upper level ridge.  The ridge was causing sinking motion to the north of Bailu which appeared to be limiting the development of taller thunderstorms in the northern half of the circulation.

Aside from the sinking motion north of Tropical Storm Bailu, it will move through an environment favorable for intensification.  Bailu will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are not too strong and there will not be a lot of vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Bailu could intensify on Friday if more thunderstorms develop around the center of circulation.  There is a chance that Bailu could strengthen into a typhoon.

Tropical Storm Bailu will move around the southwestern part of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Bailu toward the northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Bailu could approach southern Taiwan in about 24 hours.  Bailu could be a typhoon by that time.  It will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Taiwan.  The locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Ivo Forms South of Baja California

Tropical Storm Ivo formed south of Baja California on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located at latitude 15.8°N and longitude 109.5°W which put it about 490 miles (790 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Ivo was moving toward the west-northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation developed in a low pressure system south of Baja California on Wednesday and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Ivo.  A band of thunderstorms wrapped around the western and southern parts of the center of circulation and satellite sensors indicated that winds to tropical storm force were occurring in the band.  Other bands of thunderstorms developed in the western half of Tropical Storm Ivo.  Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms near the center of Ivo began to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Ivo will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 to 48 hours.  Ivo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move south of an upper level ridge that stretches from west of California to northern Mexico.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, which could slow the rate at which Tropical Storm Ivo intensifies. However, the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification and Ivo could strengthen into a hurricane within 36 hours.  Tropical Storm Ivo will start to move over cooler water when it moves west of Baja California and that will cause it to weaken during the weekend.

The ridge will steer Tropical Storm Ivo toward the northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Ivo will move west of Baja California.  The primary impact of Ivo will be to generate waves which will reach the west coast of Baja California and southern California.

Tropical Storm Bailu Forms East of Luzon

Tropical Storm Bailu formed east of Luzon on Wednesday.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Bailu was located at latitude 15.4°N and longitude 131.6°E which put it about 930 miles (1500 km) southeast of Taipei, Taiwan.  Bailu was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A low pressure system east of northern Luzon strengthened on Wednesday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Bailu.  The circulation around Bailu was gradually exhibiting greater organization.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were forming and the bands were starting to revolve around the center of the tropical storm.  There were more thunderstorms in the bands on the western side of Tropical Storm Bailu.  Storms near the center of circulation were beginning to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from Bailu.

Tropical Storm Bailu will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next two to three days.  Bailu will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C.  It will move southeast of an upper level ridge that extends from eastern Asia over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will produce northeasterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Bailu will intensify during the next several days and it could strengthen into a typhoon.

Tropical Storm Bailu will move south of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Bailu in a northwesterly direction.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Bailu could approach Taiwan in about 72 hours.  Bailu could be a typhoon by that time.  Bands on the western side of Tropical Storm Bailu could drop locally heavy rain over parts of northern Luzon.  Flash floods could occur in some locations.