Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi Brings Wind and Rain to Northern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi brought wind and rain to northern Madagascar on Saturday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was located at latitude 13.1°S and longitude 48.4°E which put the center about 60 miles (95 km) south of Antsiranana, Madagascar.  Dikeledi was moving toward the west-southwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon before it reached northern Madagascar on Saturday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Dikeledi’s circulation.  An eye appeared intermittently on microwave satellite images.  The intermittent eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core to Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Dikeledi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi is 12.7.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 9.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 22.2  Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Isaias when Isaias hit North Carolina in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will move across northern Madagascar during the next few hours.  Dikeledi is capable of causing localized minor wind damage.  Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will also drop heavy rain over parts of northern Madagascar.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dikeledi toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will move across northern Madagascar during the next few hours.  The center of Dikeledi’s circulation will pass near Mayotte on Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will weaken while it moves across northern Madagascar.  Dikeledi will will move through an environment favorable for intensification when it reaches the northern Mozambique Channel on Sunday.  Dikeledi will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dikeledi’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi is likely to intensify on Sunday when it gets to the northern Mozambique Channel.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi Approaches Northern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was approaching northern Madagascar on Friday afternoon.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was located at latitude 13.1°S and longitude 53.5°E which put the center about 285 miles (460 km) east of Antsiranana, Madagascar.  Dikeledi was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi intensified on Friday as it approached northern Madagascar.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western and northern sides of the center of Dikeledi’s circulation.  An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Dikeledi’s circulation.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi became more symmetrical on Friday.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Dikeledi’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Dikeledi will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dikeledi’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will intensify during the next 12 hours.  Dikeledi could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer DIkeledi toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will reach northern Madagascar in 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to northern Madagascar.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Pita Forms West of Niue

Tropical Cyclone Pita formed over the South Pacific Ocean west of Niue on Friday.  At 1:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Pita was located at latitude 18.5°S and longitude 172.2°W which put the center about 155 miles (250 km) west-northwest of Niue.  Pita was moving toward the east-southeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean west of Niue strengthened on Friday and the Fiji Meteorological Service designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Pita.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Pita organized quickly on Friday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern and southern sides of the center of Pita’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Pita.  Storms near the center of Pita generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Pita will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Pita will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Pita’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Pita is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Pita will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Pita toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Pita will reach Niue in less than 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone PIta will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Niue.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi Passes North of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was passing north of Mauritius on Thursday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thussday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was located at latitude 13.5°S and longitude 59.4°E which put the center about 485 miles (785 km) north-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Dikeledi was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi strengthened gradually as it moved over the South Indian Ocean north-northeast of Mauritius on Thursday.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Dikeledi’s circulation.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern and western sides of the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Dikeledi.  Storms near the center of Dikeledi generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the southern half of Dikeledi’s circulation.  The winds in the northern half of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dikeledi will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dikeledi’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Dikeledi could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon within 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer DIkeledi toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will approach northern Madagascar in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi Forms Northeast of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi formed over the South Indian Ocean northeast of Mauritius on Wednesday evening.  At 7:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was located at latitude 15.0°S and longitude 66.4°E which put the center about 685 miles (1110 km) northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Dikeledi was moving toward the west at 22 m.p.h. (33 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean northeast of Mauritius strengthened on Wednesday evening and Meteo France la Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern and eastern sides of the center of Dikeledi’s circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi.  Storms near the center of Dikeledi generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and west of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dikeledi will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dikeledi’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Dikeledi could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer DIkeledi toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will pass north of Mauritius and La Reunion.  Dikeledi is likely to approach northern Madagascar later this week.

Tropical Cyclone 05S Moves South of Cocos Islands

Tropical Cyclone 05S moved south of the Cocos Islands in the South Indian Ocean on Friday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone 05S was located at latitude 14.2°S and longitude 96.6°E which put the center about 125 miles (200 km) south of the Cocos Islands.  Tropical Cyclone 05S was moving toward the south at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Cyclone 05S was moving under the western end of an upper level ridge that extended from Australia to the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge was producing northeasterly winds that were blowing toward the top of the tropical cyclone.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone 05S to be asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western and southern parts of the tropical cyclone.  Bands in the northern and eastern parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The distribution of winds speeds around Tropical Cyclone 05S was also symmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) in the southwestern quadrant of the tropical cyclone.  The winds in the other parts of Tropical Cyclone 05S were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone 05S will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical cyclone will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will continue to move under the western part of an upper level ridge that extends from Australia to the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will continue to produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Cyclone 05S.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone 05S is likely to start to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 05S will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone 05S will move farther away from the Cocos Islands on Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone 05S Forms West of Cocos Islands

Tropical Cyclone 05S formed over the South Indian Ocean west of the Cocos Islands on Thursday evening.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone 05S was located at latitude 12.1°S and longitude 95.2°E which put the center about 140 miles (225 km) east of the Cocos Islands.  Tropical Cyclone 05S was moving toward the east at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean west of the Cocos Islands strengthened on Thursday evening and the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center designated the system as Tropical Cyclone 05S.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as a Tropical Low.

The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone 05S was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of the tropical cyclone.  Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone 05S consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west and south of the tropical cyclone.

The distribution of winds speeds around Tropical Cyclone 05S was also symmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) in the western half of the tropical cyclone.  The winds in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone 05S were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone 05S will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical cyclone will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that extends from Australia to the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Cyclone 05S.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone 05S could intensify during the next 24 hours, if the upper level winds do not get any stronger.

Tropical Cyclone 05S will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone 05S will pass southwest of the Cocos Islands on Friday.

Pabuk Weakens to a Tropical Depression

Former Tropical Storm Pabuk weakened to a tropical depression east of southern Vietnam during Tuesday night.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Pabuk was located at latitude 9.3°N and longitude 110.0°E which put the center about 260 miles (420 km) east-southeast of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.  Pabuk was moving toward the south-southwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Pabuk weakened to a tropical depression during Tuesday night.  A surface high pressure over eastern Asia produced strong northeasterly winds along the east coast of Vietnam.  Those winds transported cooler, drier air into Pabuk’s circulation.  The cooler drier air caused many of the thunderstorms in former Tropical Storm Pabuk to dissipate.  Pabuk’s circulation consisted primarily of bands of showers and lower clouds revolving around the surface center.

Tropical Depression Pabuk will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Pabuk will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Pabuk’s circulation.  The combination of southeasterly winds in the upper levels and northeasterly winds in the lower levels will cause strong vertical wind shear.   The surface high pressure system over eastern Asia will continue to transport cooler, drier air into Tropical Depression Pabuk.  The combination of strong vertical wind shear and cooler, drier air will cause Tropical Depression Pabuk to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Depression Pabuk will move around the southeastern side of the high pressure system over eastern Asia.  The high pressure system will steer Pabuk toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Pabuk will remain east of Vietnam.

Tropical Storm Pabuk Moves Toward Vietnam

Tropical Storm Pabuk moved slowly toward Vietnam on Tuesday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Pabuk was located at latitude 11.3°N and longitude 111.3°E which put the center about 335 miles (540 km) east of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.  Pabuk was moving toward the west-southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Storm Pabuk was better organized in Tuesday morning.  More thunderstorms were occurring near the center of Pabuk’s circulation.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern and western sides of the center of Tropical Storm Pabuk.  Storms near the center of Pabuk generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north and west of the tropical storm.

Even though Tropical Storm Pabuk was better organized, the distribution of thunderstorms was still asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern and western sides of Pabuk’s circulation.  Bands in the southern and eastern side of Tropical Storm Pabuk consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Storm Pabuk will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Pabuk will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Pabuk’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  A surface high pressure system over eastern Asia will transport drier air around the southern side of Tropical Storm Pabuk.  The combination of drier air and moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification of Tropical Storm Pabuk during the next 24 hours.  Pabuk could strengthen a little if the vertical wind shear does not get any stronger.  Tropical Storm Pabuk is likely to weaken if the upper level winds do get stronger.

Tropical Storm Pabuk will move around the southeastern side of the high pressure system over eastern Asia.  The high pressure system will steer Pabuk toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Pabuk will continue to move toward Vietnam.

Tropical Storm Pabuk Develops East of Vietnam

Tropical Storm Pabuk developed over the South China Sea east of Vietnam on Monday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Pabuk was located at latitude 11.5°N and longitude 112.5°E which put the center about 410 miles (660 km) east of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.  Pabuk was moving toward the north at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

The circulation around former Tropical Depression 28W strengthened on Monday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Pabuk.  The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Pabuk was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in a band in the northern part of Pabuk’s circulation.  The bands in the other parts of Tropical Storm Pabuk consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Storm Pabuk will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Pabuk will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Pabuk’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  A surface high pressure system over eastern Asia will transport drier air into the western side of Tropical Storm Pabuk.  The combination of drier air and moderate vertical wind shear is likely to cause Tropical Storm Pabuk to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Pabuk will move around the southeastern side of the high pressure system over eastern Asia.  The high pressure system will steer Pabuk toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Pabuk will move toward Vietnam.