Author Archives: jay_hobgood

Tropical Cyclone 02B Develops over Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone 02B developed over the Bay of Bengal southwest of Port Blair on Saturday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone 02B was located at latitude 9.9°N and longitude 90.9°E which put it about 165 miles (265 km) southwest of Port Blair, Andaman Islands. Tropical Cyclone 02B was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the eastern Bay of Bengal strengthened on Saturday morning and the center was designated as Tropical Cyclone 02B. More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Cyclone 02B. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern side of the center of circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone 02B will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31˚C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Bay of Bengal. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the low pressure system. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be large enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone 02B will intensify during the next 36 hours and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone 02B will move around the southwestern side of a high pressure system over Southeast Asia. The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 02B will move slowly away from the Andaman Islands and the Nicobar Islands. The tropical cyclone will continue to drop locally heavy rain over the Nicobar Islands and the Andaman Islands until it moves farther northwest of those areas. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Karim Forms over the South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Karim formed over the South Indian Ocean west-northwest of Cocos Island on Saturday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Karim was located at latitude 8.0°S and longitude 89.6°E which put it about 585 miles (945 km) west-northwest of Cocos Island. Karim was moving toward the southeast at 8 m.p.h (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean west-northwest of Cocos Island strengthened on Saturday morning and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Karim. More thunderstorms developed near the center of Karim’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Karim will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Karim will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the Southeast Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce north-northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Karim’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be large enough to stop Karim from intensifying. Tropical Cyclone Karim is likely to strengthen during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Karim will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the Southeast Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Karim toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Karim will pass west of Cocos Island in 48 hours.

Low Pressure System Forms over Eastern Bay of Bengal

A low pressure system formed over the eastern Bay of Bengal near the Nicobar Islands on Friday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of a low pressure system was located at latitude 8.6°N and longitude 92.5°E which put it about 45 miles (75 km) south-southwest of Malacca, Nicobar Islands and about 205 miles (330 km) south of Port Blair, Andaman Islands. The low pressure system was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A surface low pressure system, also designated as Invest 92B, formed over the eastern Bay of Bengal near the Nicobar Islands on Friday morning. The circulation around the low pressure system exhibited more organization on conventional and microwave satellite images. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in a band just to the west of the center of the low pressure system. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence that was pumping mass away from the low pressure system. The removal of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease.

The low pressure system will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31˚C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Bay of Bengal. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the low pressure system. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be large enough to prevent intensification. The low pressure system will strengthen during the next 24 hours and it could intensify to a tropical cyclone during the weekend.

The low pressure system will move around the southwestern side of a high pressure system over Southeast Asia. The high pressure system will steer the low pressure system toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the low pressure system will move slowly away from the Nicobar Islands. The low pressure system will drop locally heavy rain over the Nicobar Islands and the Andaman Islands. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine Brings Gusty Winds and Rain to Southern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar on Tuesday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine was located at latitude 23.4°S and longitude 44.0°E which put it about 30 miles (50 km) east of Toliara, Madagascar. Jasmine was moving toward the east at 10 m.p.h (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine made landfall on the southwest coast of Madagascar near Toliara on Tuesday. Jasmine was the equivalent of a tropical storm at the time of landfall. The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Jasmine.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine will move east across the southern end of Madagascar during the next 18 hours. Jasmine will weaken as it moves over southern Madagascar but it will continue to produce gusty winds. The gusty winds could cause minor damage and electrical outages. Tropical Cyclone Jasmine will also drop locally heavy rain over parts of southern Madagascar. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations, especially in places with steep slopes.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine Moves Toward Southwest Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine moved toward southwest Madagascar on Monday night. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine was located at latitude 22.8°S and longitude 41.9°E which put it about 125 miles (200 km) west-northwest of Toliara, Madagascar. Jasmine was moving toward the southeast at 5 m.p.h (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine strengthened slightly on Monday night as it moved over the Mozambique Channel toward southwest Madagascar. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Jasmine’s circulation. A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the center of circulation. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in the southern past of the ring. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine. Storms near the core of Jasmine generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jasmine was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Jasmine.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Jasmine will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. An upper level trough over southern Africa will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Jasmine’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase on Tuesday. Tropical Cyclone Jasmine could intensify during the next few hours, but it may start to weaken later on Tuesday when the shear increases.

The upper level trough over southern Africa will steer tropical cyclone Jasmine toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Jasmine will approach the coast of southwest Madagascar during the next 12 hours. The center of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine could make landfall near Toliara in 15 to 18 hours. Jasmine will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar during the next 36 hours. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine Strengthens over Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine strengthened over the Mozambique Channel on Sunday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine was located at latitude 19.5°S and longitude 39.6°E which put it about 210 miles (340 km) north-northeast of Europa Island. Jasmine was moving toward the south at 7 m.p.h (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine strengthened on Sunday as it moved through a favorable environment over the Mozambique Channel. The distribution of thunderstorms around Jasmine’s circulation became more symmetrical, More thunderstorms developed around the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Jasmine. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Jasmine will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel. The upper level ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Jasmine’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear may not be large enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Jasmine could get stronger during the next 24 hours. An upper level trough over southern Africa will move toward Jasmine on Monday. The upper level trough could cause the wind shear to increase when it moves closer to Tropical Cyclone Jasmine.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Jasmine toward the south during the next day or so. Jasmine could move more toward the southeast when it moves around the western end of the ridge early next week. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Jasmine could approach southwestern Madagascar within 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine Develops near Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine developed near Mozambique on Saturday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine was located at latitude 17.7°S and longitude 40.4°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) south-southeast of Angoche, Mozambique. Jasmine was moving toward the south-southeast at 10 m.p.h (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A tropical depression over the western Mozambique Channel strengthened on Saturday night and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Jasmine. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Jasmine’s circulation that were over the water in the Mozambique Channel. Bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine were mostly over land and those bands consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Jasmine generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine. The winds in the northern half of Jasmine were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Jasmine will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel. The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Jasmine’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be large enough to prevent intensification. There will be less friction when the western half of Jasmine’s circulation moves over the Mozambique Channel. Tropical Cyclone Jasmine is likely to get stronger during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Jasmine toward the south. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Jasmine will move away from the coast of Mozambique during the next 24 hours. Gusty winds and locally heavy rain over northern Mozambique will diminish when Jasmine moves farther away.

Tropical Depression Forms over Mozambique Channel

A tropical depression formed over the Mozambique Channel on Friday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of the tropical depression was located at latitude 13.5°S and longitude 42.7°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) east-northeast of Nacala, Mozambique. The tropical depression was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A tropical depression, also designated as Invest 97S, formed over the Mozambique Channel on Friday morning. More thunderstorms developed near the center of the depression’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of the tropical depression. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the depression.

The tropical depression will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the center of an upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel. The winds are weak near the center of the upper level ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. The tropical depression will intensify during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen to a named tropical cyclone.

The tropical depression will move around the northwestern side of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the southwest. On its anticipated track the tropical depression could approach the coast of Mozambique south of Nacala in 24 hours. The tropical depression will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Mozambique during the weekend. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Typhoon Malakas Brings Winds and Rain to Iwo To

Typhoon Malakas brought strong winds and heavy rain to Iwo To on Thursday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Malakas was located at latitude 25.6°N and longitude 140.4°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) west of Two To. Malakas was moving toward the north-northeast at 24 m.p.h (39 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 964 mb.

Typhoon Malakas weakened as it approached Iwo To, but Malakas still brought strong winds and heavy rain to the island. An upper level trough near Japan was producing strong southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Malakas’ circulation. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear and the shear was affecting the distribution of thunderstorms. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Typhoon Malakas. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

There continued to be a large circulation around Typhoon Malakas. Winds to typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Malakas. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Malakas was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 21.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 38.9.

Typhoon Malakas will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Malakas will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 23˚C. The upper level trough near Japan will continue to produce strong southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of the typhoon’s circulation. Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear. Typhoon Malakas will continue to weaken during the next 36 hours. The combination of colder water and strong vertical wind shear will cause Malakas to make a transition to a strong extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough near Japan will steer Typhoon Malakas quickly toward the northeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Typhoon Malakas will cross the Ogasawara Islands during the next 24 hours. Malakas will bring strong winds and heavy rain the Ogasawara Islands. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Weather conditions should improve on Iwo To on Friday when Malakas moves away from the island.

Typhoon Malakas Intensifies to Equivalent of Cat. 4 Hurricane

Typhoon Malakas intensified to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Wednesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Malakas was located at latitude 19.3°N and longitude 137.5°E which put it about 475 miles (770 km) south-southwest of Two To. Malakas was moving toward the north-northeast at 13 m.p.h (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 939 mb.

Typhoon Malakas strengthened to the equivalent of a Cat. 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the Western North Pacific Ocean south-southwest of Iwo To on Wednesday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) was at the center of Malakas’ circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core to Typhoon Malakas. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.

The circulation around Typhoon Malakas was large. Winds to typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Malakas. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 260 miles (415 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Malakas was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 24.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 49.1.

Typhoon Malakas will move into an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Malakas will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26˚C. An upper level trough west of Japan will move toward Malakas. When the upper level trough gets closer to Typhoon Malakas, it will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of the typhoon’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. When the shear increases, Typhoon Malakas will start to weaken.

The upper level trough west of Japan will steer Typhoon Malakas toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Malakas could approach Iwo To in 30 hours. Typhoon Malakas will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Iwo To and the Ogasawara Islands. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.