Category Archives: Eastern and Central Pacific

TCs between Mexico and Hawaii

Tropical Storm Pamela Intensifies, Hurricane Watch for Mexico

Tropical Storm Pamela intensified over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Monday morning and the government of Mexico issued a Hurricane Watch for a portion of the west coast. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Pamela was located at latitude 16.8°N and longitude 108.1°W which put it about 455 miles (735 km) south-southwest of Mazatlan, Mexico. Pamela was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa, Mexico. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the portions of the coast from Altata to Bahia Tempehuaya and from Escuinapa to San Blas. A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast of Baja California from Los Barilles to Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Pamela intensified more rapidly on Monday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped tightly around the southern and eastern sides of the center of Pamela. Storms near the center of circulation generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease more quickly. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Storm Pamela. The circulation around Pamela was relatively small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Pamela will move through a region where the environment is favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Pamela will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Pamela could strengthen to a hurricane during the next 12 hours. Pamela could intensify rapidly once an inner core with an eye and eyewall forms. Pamela could rapidly intensify to a major hurricane by Tuesday night.

Tropical Storm Pamela will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Pamela toward the north-northwest during that time period. An upper level trough over the western U.S. will turn Pamela toward the northeast on Tuesday. On its anticipated track Pamela could be south of Baja California on Tuesday evening. Pamela could be a major hurricane when it approaches the west coast of Mexico on Wednesday morning.

Tropical Storm Pamela Forms South of Mexico

Tropical Storm Pamela formed south of Mexico on Sunday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Pamela was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 105.9°W which put it about 265 miles (425 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Pamela was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A low pressure system south of Mexico strengthened on Sunday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Pamela. The circulation around Tropical Storm Pamela was gradually becoming more organized. A band of showers and thunderstorms was wrapping around the western and southern sides of the center of Pamela. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Pamela. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Pamela’s circulation. The winds in the other parts of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Pamela will move through a region where the environment is favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Pamela will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Pamela will intensify during the next 36 hours. It could strengthen to a hurricane by Monday night.

Tropical Storm Pamela will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico during the next 36 hours. The high pressure system will steer Pamela toward the northwest during that time period. An upper level trough over the western U.S. will turn Pamela toward the northeast later on Tuesday. On its anticipated track Pamela could be south of Baja California on Tuesday night. Pamela is likely to be a hurricane when it approaches the west coast of Mexico on Wednesday afternoon.

Olaf Weakens to Tropical Storm over Southern Baja California

Former Hurricane Olaf weakened to a tropical storm when it passed over southern Baja California on Friday. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was located at latitude 24.5°N and longitude 112.2°W which put it about 20 miles (30 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico. Olaf was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto San Andresito to Loreto. The Tropical Storm Warning included Cabo San Lucas and La Paz.

Former Hurricane Olaf weakened on Friday when the circulation passed over mountains in the southern part of Baja California. The low level center of circulation of Tropical Storm Olaf was visible on satellite images. The low level center was back over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean near Cabo San Lazaro. There were mainly showers and lower clouds near the low level center. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the eastern side of Olaf that were over Baja California and the Gulf of California. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation. A weather station in Puerto Cortes, Mexico recently reported a sustained wind speed of 44 m.p.h. (70 km/h) and a wind gust of 53 m.p.h. (85 km/h).

Tropical Storm Olaf will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next several days. Olaf will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 25˚C. The air over the cooler water is drier and more stable. Drier, more stable air will inhibit the develop of thunderstorms. If new thunderstorms do not form near the center of Tropical Storm Olaf during the next 12 hours, it will gradually weaken. Olaf is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression on Saturday.

The future track of Tropical Storm Olaf will depend on how fast Olaf weakens. If no new thunderstorms develop near the center of Olaf, then the tropical storm will be steered by the winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere. A surface high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean is forecast to steer Tropical Storm Olaf toward the west-southwest during the weekend. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Olaf will gradually move away from Baja California.

Hurricane Olaf Makes Landfall on Southern Tip of Baja California

Hurricane Olaf made landfall on southern tip of Baja California on Thursday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Olaf was located at latitude 23.0°N and longitude 109.6°W which put it about 20 miles (30 km) east-northeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Olaf was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

A Hurricane Warning Was in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Cabo San Lucas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito, Mexico and from Los Barriles to Loreto, Mexico.

The eye of Hurricane Olaf made landfall on the southern tip of Baja California near San Jose del Cabo on Thursday night. Olaf continued to intensify right up until the center moved ashore. Hurricane Olaf strengthened to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale prior to landfall. Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Olaf. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Olaf was 16.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 27.0

Hurricane Olaf was capable of causing regional serious damage. Olaf will produce strong winds over the southern part of Baja California. Wind damage could cause widespread power outages. Hurricane Olaf will also drop heavy rain over the region and flash floods are likely to occur. Hurricane Olaf will move northwest over Baja California during the next 24 hours. Mountains will begin to disrupt the circulation and Olaf will weaken. The area of heavy rain will move northward, as will the risk for flash floods.

Olaf Strengthens to a Hurricane Southeast of Baja California

Former Tropical Storm Olaf strengthened to a hurricane southeast of Baja California on Thursday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Olaf was located at latitude 21.2°N and longitude 108.3°W which put it about 155 miles (250 km) southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Olaf was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

A Hurricane Warning Was in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to Sante Fe, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Cabo San Lucas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico and from Los Barriles to San Evaristo, Mexico.

Former Tropical Storm Olaf intensified quickly to a hurricane during the past 24 hours. A circular eye formed at the center of Hurricane Olaf. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Olaf. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) on the eastern side of Olaf. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Olaf will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Olaf will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29˚C. It will move south of an upper level ridge over the southwestern U.S. The ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Olaf’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification of Hurricane Olaf. Olaf will strengthen during the next 12 hours and there is a chance it could intensify to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Hurricane Olaf will move around the western side of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high will steer Olaf toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Olaf will approach the southern end of Baja California on Thursday night. Olaf will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern Baja California. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Hurricane Olaf will also cause a storm surge along the southern end of Baja California.

Tropical Storm Olaf Develops West of Mexico

Tropical Storm Olaf developed west of Mexico on Wednesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was located at latitude 18.9°N and longitude 107.5°W which put it about 315 miles (510 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Olaf was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to Santa Fe, Mexico.

The circulation around former Tropical Depression Fifteen-E strengthened on Wednesday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Olaf. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern side of the center of Olaf. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Olaf. The winds were blowing at less than tropical storm force in the other parts of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Olaf will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Olaf will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29˚C. It will move south of an upper level ridge over the southwestern U.S. The ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Olaf’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification of Tropical Storm Olaf. Olaf will strengthen during the next 24 hours and there is a chance it could intensify to a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Olaf will move around the western side of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high will steer Olaf toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Olaf could approach the southern end of Baja California on Thursday. Olaf could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to southern Baja California.

Tropical Storm Nora Brings Rain to West Coast of Mexico

Tropical Storm Nora brought rain to the west coast of Mexico on Sunday. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Nora was located at latitude 24.5°N and longitude 107.7°W which put it about 85 miles (135 km) east-southeast of Los Mochis, Mexico. Nora was moving toward the north-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Mazatlan to Topolobampo, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Topolobampo to Huatabampito, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Nora moved northward along the west coast of Mexico on Sunday. The center passed near Mazatlan and Culiacan. The center remained over land during its northward track and former Hurricane Nora weakened to a tropical storm. Tropical Storm Nora dropped heavy rain over parts of Nayarit, Sinaloa and Durango. The heavy rain may have caused flash floods in some location.

Tropical Storm Nora will continue to move toward the north-northwest near the west coast of Mexico during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Nora will remain over land. So, Tropical Storm Nora will continue to weaken. Nora could bring locally heavy rain to Sinaloa, Sonora and Chihuahua as the tropical storm weakens over northwestern Mexico. The risk of flash floods will be high in those location.s

Hurricane Nora Makes Landfall South of Puerto Vallarta

Hurricane Nora made landfall on the west coast of Mexico south of Puerto Vallarta on Saturday evening. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Nora was located at latitude 20.2°N and longitude 105.4°W which put it about 30 miles (50 km) south-southwest of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. Nora was moving toward the north at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Altata, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Altata to Mazatlan, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Altata to Mazatlan, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Lucas to La Paz, Mexico.

The center of Hurricane Nora made landfall south of Puerto Vallarta near Vincente Guerrero, Mexico on Saturday evening. Hurricane force winds extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Nora at the time of landfall. Tropical storm force winds extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Hurricane Nora. Nora was dropping heavy rain on parts of Jalisco and Colima. The potential for flash floods was high.

Hurricane Nora is forecast to move toward the north along the west coast of Mexico. Nora is likely to weaken as the center moves along the coast. Hurricane Nora will pull drier air over Mexico into the circulation. The drier air will inhibit the development of thunderstorms. If the drier air gets to the core of Nora, it could dissipate. However, if the center of Hurricane Nora moves back over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, then Nora could maintain its intensity while it is over water. Nora would be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It would be in a region where the upper level winds are weak and there would be little vertical wind shear.

Nora Strengthens to a Hurricane South of Mexico

Former Tropical Storm Nora strengthened to a hurricane south of Mexico early on Saturday. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Nora was located at latitude 17.8°N and longitude 105.4°W which put it about 180 miles (290 km) south of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. Nora was moving toward the north-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to San Blas, Mexico. Hurricane Watches were in effect for the portions of the coast from Lazaro Cardenas to Manzanillo and from San Blas to Mazatlan, Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo and from San Blas to Mazatlan, Mexico.

Former Tropical Storm Nora strengthened to a hurricane early on Saturday morning. Infrared and microwave satellite images showed that an eye was forming at the center of Nora. The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Nora. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the northeast quadrant of Nora. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Nora will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Nora will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Nora could strengthen during the next 12 hours. Nora could pull drier air over Mexico into its circulation when it moves closer to the coast. The drier air could inhibit the formation of thunderstorms and Nora could start to weaken when the center gets close to the coast of Mexico.

Hurricane Nora will move around the western side of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Nora toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Nora could be very near Manzanillo on Saturday night. Nora will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the coast of Mexico. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in Colima, Jalisco and Guadalajara.

Tropical Storm Nora Forms South of Acapulco

Tropical Storm Nora formed south of Acapulco, Mexico on Thursday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Nora was located at latitude 12.5°N and longitude 100.8°W which put it about 310 miles (500 km) south of Acapulco, Mexico. Nora was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan de Galeana, Mexico.

An area of low pressure south of Acapulco, Mexico exhibited more organization on Thursday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Nora. The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Storm Nora was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Nora. Bands in the north half of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Nora began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Nora will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge centered near Baja California. The ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Nora’s circulation. Those winds are already causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms and they will cause vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but it may not be strong enough to keep Tropical Storm Nora from intensifying during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Nora will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Nora toward the northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Nora could approach the west coast of Mexico on Friday night. Nora could be a strong tropical storm or a hurricane when it approaches the coast.