Category Archives: Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Garance Batters La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Garance battered La Reunion on Friday. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance was located at latitude 21.8°S and longitude 55.4°E which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) south-southeast of St. Denis, La, Reunion. Garance was moving toward the south at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

The core of Tropical Cyclone Garance moved directly over La Reunion on Friday. Roland Garros airport (FMEE) measured a sustained wind speed of 61 knots (70 m.p.h. or 113 km/h) and a wind gust of 83 knots (95 m.p.h. or 154 km/h).

Tropical Cyclone Garance dropped very heavy rain on La Reunion. There were reports of flooding. Roland Garros airport (FMEE) measured 6.48 inches (164.6 mm) of rain. A weather station at Piton-Maido reported 18.49 inches (469.6 mm) of rain. A weather station at Cilaos reported 17.06 inches (433.4 mm) of rain.

Tropical Cyclone Garance was a small tropical cyclone when it hit La Reunion. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Garance’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Garance was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8,8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 26.6. Tropical Cyclone Garance was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Garance will be pulled around the eastern side of the larger circulation around Tropical Cyclone Honde. Garance will move toward the south during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Garance will move south of La Reunion later today.

Tropical Cyclone Garance will weaken significantly during its passage over La Reunion. Tropical Cyclone Garance will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Garance will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However, it will move under the upper level outflow from Tropical Cyclone Honde. The upper level outflow from Honde’s circulation will cause the vertical wind shear to increase over Garance. The increase in vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Garance to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Elsewhere over the Southwest Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Honde brought strong winds and heavy rain to southern Madagascar. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde was located at latitude 26.1°S and longitude 44.0°E which put the center about 190 miles (305 km) south of Toliara, Madagascar. Honde was moving toward the east-southeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Garance Intensifies to Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Garance intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane north of La Reunion on Thursday. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance was located at latitude 18.5°S and longitude 55.4°E which put the center about 155 miles (205 km) north of St. Denis, La, Reunion. Garance was moving toward the southeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). 0 The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Garance intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane north of La Reunion on Thursday. A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was at the center of Garance’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Garance’s circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Garance was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Garance’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Garance was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.4. Tropical Cyclone Garance was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Dennis when Dennis hit Northwest Florida in 2005.

Tropical Cyclone Garance will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Garance will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under an upper level ridge that is east of Madagascar. The upper level winds are weak in the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Garance could continue to intensify during the next 12 hours unless an eyewall replacement cycle occurs.

Tropical Cyclone Garance is likely to get pulled into the eastern side of the larger circulation around Tropical Cyclone Honde, which is over the southern Mozambique Channel. The larger circulation around Honde will steer Garance toward the south during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Garance will reach La Reunion within the next 18 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Garance is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches La Reunion. Garance will be capable of causing major damage on La Reunion. Tropical Cyclone Garance will also drop heavy rain on La Reunion. Heavy rain is likely to cause widespread flash flooding. Garance could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast of La Reunion.

Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Garance could also bring strong winds and heavy rain to Mauritius. There were reports that the airport on Mauritius was closed as a precaution.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Honde intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the southern Mozambique Channel near Madagascar. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde was located at latitude 25.0°S and longitude 41.8°E which put the center about 170 miles (280 km) southwest of Toliara, Madagascar. Honde was moving toward the southeast at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Honde will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Garance Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Garance intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon north-northwest of La Reunion on Wednesday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance was located at latitude 17.8°S and longitude 54.7°E which put the center about 200 miles (325 km) north-northwest of St. Denis, La, Reunion. Garance was moving toward the east-southeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Garance rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Southwest Indian Ocean north-northwest of La Reunion on Wednesday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Garance’s circulation. A small circular eye appeared to be forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance. The developing eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Garance’s circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Garance was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Garance’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Garance was 16.5 The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 27.7. Tropical Cyclone Garance was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Idalia when Idalia hit Florida in 2023.

Tropical Cyclone Garance will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Garance will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level low that is southeast of La Reunion. The upper level low will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Garance’s circulation. Those winds will some vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Garance will intensify during the next 24 hours. Garance is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Garance could get pulled into the eastern side of the larger circulation around Tropical Cyclone Honde, which is over the Mozambique Channel. The larger circulation around Honde will steer Garance toward the south during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Garance will approach La Reunion in 24 hours.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Honde was intensifying over the Mozambique Channel. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde was located at latitude 24.1°S and longitude 40.2°E which put the center about 255 miles (410 km) west of Toliara, Madagascar. Honde was moving toward the east-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Bianca Weakens Rapidly

Tropical Cyclone Bianca weakened rapidly over the South Indian Ocean west of Australia on Wednesday. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bianca was located at latitude 25.7°S and longitude 102.7°E which put the center about 730 miles (1175 km) west of Carnarvon, Australia. Bianca was moving toward the south-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Bianca weakened rapidly over the South Indian Ocean west of Australia on Wednesday. An upper level trough west of Australia produced strong northwesterly winds that blew across the top of Tropical Cyclone Bianca. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear blew the upper part of Bianca’s circulation to the southeast of the circulation in the lower levels.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Bianca consisted of bands of showers and lower clouds that were revolving around the low level center of circulation. Strong vertical wind shear was blowing the tops off of clouds that rose higher into the atmosphere.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Bianca was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Bianca’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Bianca will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Bianca will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 23°C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level trough will continue to produce strong northwesterly winds that will blow across the top of Bianca’s circulation. Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear. Cooler water and strong vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Bianca to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Since the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Bianca exists only in the lower levels of the atmosphere, Bianca will be steered by the weather features near the surface. Bianca will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Bianca toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Bianca will move farther away from Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Garance Forms Northwest of La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Garance formed over the Southwest Indian Ocean northwest of La Reunion on Tuesday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance was located at latitude 18.3°S and longitude 52.1°E which put the center about 270 miles (435 km) northwest of St. Denis, La, Reunion. Garance was moving toward the east-northeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A low pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean northwest of La Reunion strengthened on Tuesday morning and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Garance. The distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical in Tropical Cyclone Garance. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western and northern parts of Garance’s circulation. Bands in the eastern and southern parts of Tropical Cyclone Garance consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Garance began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Garance was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Garance’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Garance will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Garance will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the northwestern side of an upper level low that is southeast of La Reunion. The upper level low will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Garance’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Garance will intensify during the next 24 hours.

The upper level low southeast of La Reunion will steer Tropical Cyclone Garance slowly toward the east during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Garance will approach La Reunion and Mauritius in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Garance could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it approaches La Reunion and Mauritius.

Elsewhere over the Southwest Indian Ocean, a tropical depression formed over the Mozambique Channel. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of the tropical depression was located at latitude 22.9°S and longitude 37.1°E which put the center about 405 miles (655 km) west of Toliara, Madagascar. The tropical depression was moving toward the south-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Bianca Strengthens to Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Bianca strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Monday night. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bianca was located at latitude 22.3°S and longitude 102.0°E which put the center about 765 miles (1235 km) west of the Exmouth, Australia. Bianca was moving toward the south-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Bianca strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean west of Australia on Monday night. A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) was at the center of Bianca’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Bianca’s circulation. Storms near the center of Bianca generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Bianca was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Bianca’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Bianca.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Bianca was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.9.

Tropical Cyclone Bianca will move into an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Bianca will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bianca’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Tropical Cyclone Bianca will weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.

Tropical Cyclone Bianca will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Bianca toward the south during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Bianca will move parallel to the coast of Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Bianca Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Bianca strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean on Sunday night. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bianca was located at latitude 19.3°S and longitude 103.3°E which put the center about 645 miles (1040 km) southeast of the Cocos Islands. Bianca was moving toward the southwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Bianca rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean southeast of the Cocos Islands during Sunday night. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Bianca’s circulation. A circular eye formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Bianca. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Bianca’s circulation. Storms near the center of Bianca generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Bianca was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (3o km) from the center of Bianca’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Bianca.

Tropical Cyclone Bianca will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Bianca will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Bianca is likely to continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Bianca will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Bianca toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Bianca will remain far to the southeast of the Cocos Islands.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred Forms over the Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Alfred formed over the Coral Sea on Sunday. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 14.3°S and longitude 153.7°E which put the center about 560 miles (900 km) east-northeast of Cairns, Australia. Alfred was moving toward the east at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A low pressure system over the Coral Sea strengthened on Sunday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Alfred. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred exhibited more organization on Sunday. More thunderstorms formed near the center of Alfred’s circulation. More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred. Storms near the center of Alfred generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred was fairly large. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 180 miles (290 km) from the center of Alfred’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Alfred will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Alfred will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is near the Equator. The high pressure system will steer Alfred toward the east during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move farther away from Australia. Alfred is like to start to move toward the south early next week.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Bianca formed over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bianca was located at latitude 17.0°S and longitude 106.9°E which put the center about 590 miles (950 km) northwest of Exmouth, Australia. Bianca was moving toward the west-southwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Zelia Brings Wind and Rain to Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Zelia brought wind and rain to Western Australia on Friday. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Zelia was located at latitude 21.1°S and longitude 119.6°E which put the center about 10 miles (20 km) west-northwest of Marble Bar, Australia. Zelia was moving toward the south-southeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Zelia made landfall on the coast of Western Australia about 45 miles (75 km) northeast of Port Hedland on Thursday night. Zelia was the equivalent of a major hurricane at the time of landfall. The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).

At the time of landfall winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Zelia’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Zelia.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Zelia was 25.1 . The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 39.0. Tropical Cyclone Zelia was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.

Tropical Cyclone Zelia brought strong winds and heavy rain to parts of Western Australia east of Port Hedland. A weather station in Port Hedland reported a sustained wind speed of 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The weather station reported a wind gust of 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The weather station also reported 6.14 inches (156 mm) of rain.

A Flood Warning is in effect for the De Grey River. A Flood Warning is in effect for the Pilbara coastal Rivers.

Flood Watches are in effect for the Onslow coast, the Fortescue River, the Ashburton River, the Gascoyne River, and parts of the Sandy Desert.

Tropical Cyclone Zelia will move around the northwestern side of a high pressure system over Australia. The high pressure system will steer Zelia toward the south during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Zelia will pass between Nullagine and Munjina.

Tropical Cyclone Zelia will weaken steadily as it moves inland over Western Australia. Zelia will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of Western Australia as it weakens. Heavy rain could cause additional flooding in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Zelia Approaches Coast of Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Zelia was approaching the coast of Western Australia near Port Hedland on Thursday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Zelia was located at latitude 19.8°S and longitude 118.7°E which put the center about 55 miles (90 km) north of Port Hedland, Australia. Zelia was moving toward the south-southeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 938 mb.

Concentric eyewalls developed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Zelia on Thursday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the original eye and eyewall. The inner eyewall had a diameter of 15 miles (24 km). The outer eyewall had a diameter of 38 miles (61 km). The development of concentric eyewalls halted the intensification of Tropical Cyclone Zelia.

Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the concentric eyewalls at the center of Tropical Cyclone Zelia. Storms near the center of Zelia generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly the same as the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere. So, the surface pressure remained fairly constant.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Zelia was symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Zelia’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Zelia.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Zelia was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 39.0. Tropical Cyclone Zelia was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.

Tropical Cyclone Zelia will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Zelia will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the middle part of an upper level ridge that extends from Australia to the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Even though Tropical Cyclone Zelia will move through a favorable environment, the concentric eyewalls are likely to prevent any significant intensification.

Tropical Cyclone Zelia will move around the northwestern side of a high pressure system over Australia. The high pressure system will steer Zelia slowly toward the south during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Zelia will make landfall on the coast of Western Australia near Port Hedland in a few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Zelia will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of Western Australia near Port Hedland.

A Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Wallal Downs to Roebourne. The Warning includes Port Hedland and De Grey. The Warning extends inland to Marble Bar, Millstream, Nullagine, Tom Price, and Paraburdoo.

Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.