Category Archives: Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Calvinia Develops East of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Calvinia developed east of Mauritius on Sunday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Calvinia was located at latitude 20.7°S and longitude 58.7°E which put it about 105 miles (165 km) east-southeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Calvinia was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation developed in an area of thunderstorms east of Mauritius on Sunday and the system was designated at Tropical Cyclone Calvinia.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Calvinia was asymmetrical.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the eastern side of the circulation.  Bands north and west of the center of Calvinia consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The distributions of strong winds around the tropical cyclone was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) on the eastern side of the circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 60 miles (95 km) on the western side.

Tropical Cyclone Calvinia will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Calvinia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  It will move east of an upper level trough.  The trough will produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  The winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and they are probably the reason for the asymmetrical structure of Tropical Cyclone Calvinia.  Calvinia could strengthen during the next several days, but the wind shear is likely to prevent significant intensification.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Cyclone Calvinia toward the southeast.  On its anticipated track Calvinia will move away from Mauritius and La Reunion.  Since Tropical Cyclone Calvinia will be east of Mauritius, the strongest part of the circulation will remain east of Mauritius and La Reunion.

Tropical Cyclone Belna Makes Landfall in Western Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Belna made landfall in the west coast of Madagascar near Soalala on Monday.  At 9:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Belna was located at latitude 16.0°S and longitude 45.0°E which put it about 20 miles (30 km) west-southwest of Soalala, Madagascar.  Belna was moving toward the south-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Belna made landfall near Soalala, Madagascar on Monday as the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.  There was a small circular eye at the center of Belna.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Belna was relatively small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Belna was 13.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 7.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 21.0.  Belna was capable of causing localized serious damage.

Tropical Cyclone Belna will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean during the next 24 hours.  The high will steer Belna toward the south-southwest during that time period.  On it anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Belna will move across west central Madagascar.  Belna will weaken when it moves farther inland but it will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the southwestern part of the district of Mahajanga.  Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods, especially in areas of steeper terrain.  Some rivers could rise very rapidly.

Tropical Cyclone Belna Approaches Northwest Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Belna approached northwest Madagascar on Sunday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Belna was located at latitude 13.3°S and longitude 46.2°E which put it about 170 miles (275 km) north of Mahajanga, Madagascar.  Belna was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Belna strengthened into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the weekend.  The inner end of a rain band wrapped most the way around the center of circulation.  The strongest winds were occurring in the part of the rainband wrapped around the center.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Belna.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Belna was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Belna will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Belna will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through a region where upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Belna could strengthen if the inner core becomes better organized and a complete eyewall forms.  Belna will weaken once the center moves over land.  Since the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Belna is small, it will weaken fairly rapidly.

Tropical Cyclone Belna will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high will steer Belna toward the south-southwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Belna will make landfall on the northwest coast of Madagascar near Soalala in about 24 hours.  Belna will bring winds to near hurricane/typhoon force to locations near the coast.  Locally heavy rain will fall, especially in locations where the wind blows up the slopes of mountains.  Locally heavy rain coud cause flash floods in western Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Belna Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon North of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Belna strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon north of Madagascar on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Belna was located at latitude 9.4°N and longitude 48.2°E which put it about 440 miles (710 km) north-northeast of Mahajanga, Madagascar.  Belna was moving toward the south-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Belna continued to strengthen on Friday.  Microwave satellite images continued to indicate that an eye was in the process of forming.  The ring of thunderstorms around the developing eye got stronger and the strongest winds were found in that ring of storms.  More thunderstorms developed in the bands revolving around the core of Belna.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Belna was relatively small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Belna will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 48 hours.  Belna will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Belna will continue to intensify during the weekend and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Belna will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high will steer Belna toward the south-southwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Belna could approach the coast of Madagascar near Mahajanga in about three days.  Belna could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it approaches the coast.

Elsewhere over the Southwest Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Ambali weakened almost as fast as it intensified on Thursday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ambali was located at latitude 11.7°S and longitude 62.1°E which put it about 670 miles (1080 km) north-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Ambali was moving toward the south at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Pawan Near Landfall in Somalia

Tropical Cyclone Pawan neared a landfall on the coast of Somalia near Eyl on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Pawan was located at latitude 8.0°N and longitude 50.2°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) east of Eyl, Somalia.  Pawan was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Pawan strengthened on Friday as it neared the coast of Somalia.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation and in bands revolving around the center.  Storms near the center generated more upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease and the wind speed to increase.  Pawan was a relatively small tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Pawan will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over North Africa.  The high will steer Pawan toward the west during the next 12 to 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Pawan will make landfall on the coast of Somalia near Eyl during the next few hours.  Pawan will bring gusty winds, and locally heavy rain will create the potential for flash floods.  Tropical Cyclone Pawan will weaken quickly when it moves into drier air over eastern Africa.

Tropical Cyclone Ambali Rapidly Intensifies to Threshold of Cat. 5

Tropical Cyclone Ambali rapidly intensified to the threshold of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Thursday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ambali was located at latitude 10.8°S and longitude 62.1°E which put it about 740 miles (1190 km) north-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Ambali was moving toward the south-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 932 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Ambali rapidly intensified from a minimal tropical storm to the threshold of a Cat. 5 hurricane in less than 36 hours over the Southwest Indian Ocean.  Nearly perfect environmental conditions including warm water and little vertical wind shear allowed Ambali to strengthen very rapidly.  A small circular eye formed at the center of the tropical cyclone.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Ambali.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Ambali was small which also contributed to the rapid intensification.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Ambali was 33.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 7.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 41.2.

Tropical Cyclone Ambali may be near its maximum intensity, although it could strengthen a little more during the next six to twelve hours.  Ambali will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will remain in an area where the upper level winds are weak during the next six to twelve hours and there will be little vertical wind shear during that time.  Tropical Cyclone Ambali will approach an area where there are strong upper level westerly winds during the weekend.  Ambali will weaken when the wind shear increases.

Tropical Cyclone Ambali will move around the western part of a subtropical high pressure over the South Indian Ocean.  The high will steer Ambali toward the south-southwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Ambali will move toward Mauritius.

Elsewhere over the Southwest Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Belna was intensifying north of Madagascar.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Belna was located at latitude 7.5°S and longitude 49.0°E which put it about 300 miles (485 km) north of Madagsacar.  Belna was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Belna exhibited much greater organization on Thursday.  An eye appeared to be forming at the center of circulation on microwave satellite images.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving about the core of Belna.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Belna will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 48 hours.  Belna will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Belna is likely to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Friday.  Belna could intensify rapidly once an eye and eyewall are full formed.  It could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Belna will move around the western end of a ridge of high pressure over the South Indian Ocean.  The high will steer Belna toward the south-southwest during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Blena could approach the coast of northwestern Madagascar in three or four days.  Belna could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it approaches Madagascar.

Two Tropical Cyclones Form over Southwest Indian Ocean

One day after a pair of tropical cyclones developed over Arabian Sea, two tropical cyclones formed over the Southwest Indian Ocean on Wednesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 02S was located at latitude 6.9°S and longitude 51.2°E which put it about 355 miles (575 km) north of Madagascar.  The tropical cyclone was moving toward the south-southwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 03S was located at latitude 7.5°S and longitude 64.0°E which put it about 570 miles (915 km) west of Diego Garcia.  The tropical cyclone was moving toward the southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) snd there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Cyclone 02S was still organizing on Wednesday afternoon and the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the northern side of the circulation.  Bands on the southern side of the tropical cyclone consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storm near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone 02S will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 to 72 hours.  The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C.  It will move through a region where there will be weak southeasterly winds in the upper levels.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and they may already have contributed to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.  The wind shear will slow the rate of intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent the Tropical Cyclone 02S from getting stronger. The tropical cyclone could intensify into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon in 48 to 72 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 02S will move near the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high will steer the tropical cyclone toward the south-southwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 02S could approach northern Madagascar in three or four days.

Tropical Cyclone 03S was also still organizing on Wednesday afternoon and it too had an asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.  The strongest thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone 03S were occurring in bands south and west of the center of circulation.  Bands north and east of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone 03S will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 48 hours.  The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds will blow from the north.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and they may have already contributed to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.  The wind shear will slow the rate of intensification but it will not be strong enough to prevent Tropical Cyclone 03S from getting stronger.

Tropical Cyclone 03S will also be steered by the subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high will steer the tropical cyclone toward the south-southwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 03S could move toward Mauritius.

Two Tropical Cyclones Churn over the Arabian Sea

Two tropical cyclones churned over the Arabian Sea on Tuesday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 06A was located at latitude 7.4°N and longitude 57.6°E which put it about 530 miles (855 km) east of Eyl, Somalia.  The tropical cyclone was moving toward the northeast at 1 m.p.h. (2 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 07A was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 69.1°E which put it about 450 miles (725 km) southwest of Mumbai, India.  The tropical cyclone was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone 06A exhibited more organization on Tuesday night.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation.  There were more thunderstorms in bands in the northern half of the tropical cyclone, but thunderstorms were forming in bands in the southern half of the circulation.  Storms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (185 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone 06A will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move near the western end of an upper level ridge centered over southern India.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear, and the wind shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Cyclone 06A will likely strengthen during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 06A is currently in an area where the steering winds are weak and it moved little on Tuesday.  A second ridge of high pressure is forecast to build north of the tropical cyclone during the next several days.  The second ridge will steer Tropical Cyclone 06A toward the west.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 06A could approach the coast of Somalia in three days.

Tropical Cyclone 07A developed more quickly on Tuesday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped part of the way around the center of circulation.  Another band of strong thunderstorms formed in the eastern half of the circulation.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the north of the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center or circulation.

Tropical Cyclone 07A will also move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C.  The upper level ridge centered over southern India will also produce southerly winds which will cause some vertical wind shear around Tropical Cyclone 07A.  The shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Cyclone 07A is also likely to strengthen during the next 24 hours.

The ridge over southern India will steer Tropical Cyclone 07A toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 07A will move roughly parallel to the west coast of India.

Tropical Cyclone 06A Forms over Western Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 06A formed over the western Arabian Sea on Monday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone 06A was located at latitude 6.7°N and longitude 56.1°E which put it about 420 miles (620 km) east-southeast of Eyl, Somalia.  The tropical cyclone was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone 06A was still organizing on Monday night and the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern half of the circulation.  Bands in the southern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Satellite images suggested that the upper levels of the circulation were tilted to the north of the surface circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone 06A was near the western end of an upper level ridge centered over southern India.  The ridge was producing southerly winds which were blowing toward the top of the tropical cyclone.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear,  The wind shear was causing the apparent tilt of the circulation with height and it was contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Cyclone 06A will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification.  The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level ridge will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear during the next several days.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification.  If the vertical wind shear remains moderate, Tropical Cyclone 06A could continue to intensify slowly.  However, if the wind shear increases, then the shear could be strong enough to weaken the tropical cyclone.  The forecast is for slight intensification of Tropical Cyclone 06A during the next 24 to 36 hours.

The ridge centered over southern India will steer Tropical Cyclone 06A toward the north during the next day or two.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 06A will move parallel to the coast of Somalia during the next 24 to 36 hours.  The tropical cyclone could turn toward Somalia later this week, but there is much uncertainty about the longer range forecast because of uncertainty about the future intensity of Tropical Cyclone 06A.

Tropical Cyclone Bulbul Makes Landfall Southeast of Kolkata

Tropical Cyclone Bulbul made landfall southeast of Kolkata, India on Saturday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bulbul was located at latitude 21.8°N and longitude 89.2°E which put it about 75 miles (120 km) southeast of Kolkata, India.  Bulbul was movign toward the east-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Bulbul made landfall on the coast of West Bengal southeast of Kolkata, India on Saturday.  The India Meteorological Department’s weather radar in Kolkata indicated that the eye of Bulbul crossed the coast of West Bengal.  Tropical Cyclone Bulbul was the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon at the time of landfall.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center.

The northern section of the eyewall of Tropical Cyclone Bulbul moved across the southeastern part of West Bengal and the southwestern portion of Bangladesh.  Thunderstorms in the eyewall were dropping heavy rain over those areas.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms in the northeastern part of Bulbul were also dropping heavy rain over other parts of Bangladesh.  The heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.  Southerly winds blowing around the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Bulbul were pushing water toward the coast.  Bulbul could cause a storm surge of 6 to 9 feet (2 to 3 meters) in some coastal locations.

Tropical Cyclone Bulbul will move around the northwestern part of a ridge of high pressure over southeast Asia.  The ridge will steer Bulbul toward the east-northeast during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Bulbul will move over coastal areas of Bangladesh between Dhaka and Chittagong.  Bulbul will weaken gradually as the center moves over land.  The wind speeds and storm surges will gradually decrease.  Tropical Cyclone Bulbul will continue to drop heavy rain over southern Bangladesh during the next 24 hours and the threat of fresh water floods will remain.