Category Archives: Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Alcide Stalls East of Madgascar

Tropical Cyclone Alcide stalled east of northern Madagascar on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alcide was located at latitude 13.4°N and longitude 53.1°E which put it about 250 miles (400 km) east of Antisiranana, Madagascar.  Alcide was moving toward the south at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (155 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Alcide weakened during the past 36 hours.  An eye is no longer apparent on visible satellite images, although an eyelike feature persists on microwave satellite images.  There are breaks in the ring of thunderstorms surrounding the eye.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force are occurring in the broken ring of storms.  Alcide moved very slowly during the past day or so.  Its slow movement may have allowed its winds to mix cooler water to the surface of the ocean.  If there is cooler water at the surface, then there is less energy available to support the circulation of Tropical Cyclone Alcide.  The circulation of Alcide remains relatively small.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Alcide is in an area where the steering currents are weak.  Alcide could meander over the same area for another day or so.  If it remains over the same cooler water, then Alcide will slowly weaken further.  As the circulation gets weaker, thunderstorms will not rise as high into the atmosphere and Tropical Cyclone Alcide will be steered by winds at lower levels.  If Alcide eventually moves over warmer water, and the upper level winds are not too strong, then new thunderstorms could develop.

Tropical Cyclone Alcide is not forecast to move much during the next 24 hours.  In a day or so the winds in the lower and middle troposphere are forecast to begin to steer Alcide in a more westerly direction.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Alcide could move closer to northern Madagascar on Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Alcide Rapidly Intensifies Into Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Alcide rapidly intensified into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon east of northern Madagascar on Wednesday.  At 10:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alcide was located at latitude 10.6°S and longitude 55.7°W which put it about 675 miles (975 km) north of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Alcide was moving toward the west-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alcide organized rapidly during the past 24 hours.  An eye formed at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Alcide.  Storm near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alcide is relatively small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extend out about 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 80 miles (130 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Alcide will move through an environment capable of supporting further intensification during the next 48 hours.  Alcide will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  It will move near the western end of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Alcide could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next day or two.

The upper level ridge will steer Tropical Cyclone Alcide in a west-southwesterly direction.  On its anticipated track Alcide would stay north of Mauritius and La Reunion.  Tropical Cyclone Alcide could be east of northern Madagascar in a few days.

Tropical Cyclone Alcide Forms North of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Alcide formed north of Mauritius on Tuesday.  At 10:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alcide was located at latitude 9.7°S and longitude 58.9°E which put it about 740 miles (1190 km) north of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Alcide was moving toward the west-southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A distinct center of circulation consolidated in an area of thunderstorms over the South Indian Ocean and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Alcide.  The circulation around Alcide was slowly becoming better organized.  The inner end of a band of thunderstorms was wrapping around the western side of the center of circulation.  Several other bands were developing south and west of the center.  Bands north and east of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of circulation were starting to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the core of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Alcide will move through an environment that will support intensification.  Alcide will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27.5°C.  It will move around the northwestern side of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear which will slow the rate of intensification, but the winds are not likely to be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Alcide could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 48 to 72 hours.

The upper level ridge will steer Tropical Cyclone Alcide slowly toward the west-southwest during the next two or three days.  On its anticipated track Alcide could be northeast of Madagascar in a few days.  It could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon at that time.

Tropical Cyclone Luban Makes Landfall in Yemen

Tropical Cyclone Luban made landfall in eastern Yemen near Nishtun on Sunday.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT the center of Tropical Cyclone Luban was located at latitude 15.9°N and longitude 51.8°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) northwest of Nishtun, Yemen.  Luban was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.ph. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Luban consists of several bands of showers and thunderstorms revolving a center of circulation.  Most of the heavier rain is falling north and east of the center of circulation.  Drier air is flowing into the western part of the circulation and the showers are lighter in that part of Tropical Cyclone Luban.

Tropical Cyclone Luban was the equivalent of a tropical depression or minimal tropical storm at the time of landfall.  Luban will weaken gradually as it moves farther inland and more drier air enters the circulation.  However, rainbands in eastern half of the circulation could drop heavy rain over parts of Yemen and western Oman.  Heavy rain cold cause flash floods in some places.

Tropical Cyclone Titli Brings Wind and Rain to India

Tropical Cyclone Titli brought wind and rain to India on Wednesday night when it made landfall.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Titli was located at latitude 19.1°N and longitude 84.4°E which put it about 30 miles (50 km) southwest of Brahmapur, India.  Titli was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Titli intensified rapidly on Wednesday prior to making landfall on the coast of India near Brahmapur.  An eye developed at the center of circulation and a ring of strong thunderstorms formed around the eye.  The strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Titli.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 170 miles (275 km) from the center of circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Titli was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Index (HWISI) was 34.1.  Tropical Cyclone Titli was capable of causing regional serious damage.

Tropical Cyclone Titli will move around the western end of an upper level ridge over the Bay of Bengal.  The ridge will steer Titli toward the north during the next 24 hours and then the tropical cyclone will move toward the northeast in a day or so.  On its anticipated track Tropical   Cyclone Titli will move slowly northward in Orissa state in India on Friday.  Titli will cause wind damage and it will drop locally heavy rain over Orissa.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Titli will spin down slowly as it moves north over Orissa.

Tropical Cyclone Titli Forms Over Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone Titli formed over the Bay of Bengal on Tuesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Titli was located at latitude 15.4°N and longitude 86.3°E which put it about 265 miles (425 km) southeast of Visakhapatnam, India.  Titli was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A distinct center of circulation formed within a large cluster of thunderstorms over the Bay of Bengal and the Indian Meteorological Department designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Titli.  The circulation of Titli was still organizing.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were forming close to the center of circulation on the western side of the tropical cyclone.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were forming on the periphery of the eastern side of the circulation.  Storms near the center of Titli were starting to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Titli will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours.  Titli will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce southeasterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation, but the vertical wind shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Titli is forecast to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 to 36 hours.

The upper level ridge will steer Tropical Cyclone Titli slowly toward the north-northwest during the next two days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Titli will make landfall on the coast of India near Brahmapur in about 36 hours.  Titli will likely be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it makes landfall.  It will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of northeastern India.  The strong winds will produce a storm surge of 6 to 9 feet (2 to 3 meters) at the coast.  The heavy rain could cause flash flooding when Tropical Cyclone Titli moves inland.

Elsewhere over the northern Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Luban was gradually strengthening over the Arabian Sea.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Luban was located at latitude 13.5°N and longitude 59.5°E which put it about 450 miles (725 km) east-southeast of Salalah, Oman.  Luban was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Luban Forms Over Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone Luban formed over the Arabian Sea on Monday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Luban was located at latitude 12.3°N and longitude 61.4°E which put it about 580 miles (935 km) east-southeast of Salalah, Oman.  Luban was moving toward the west-northwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Luban was still organizing.  The distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands west of the center of circulation.  Rainbands in the eastern half of Tropical Cyclone Luban consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  An upper level trough centered over northern India was producing easterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and they were probably the reason why the stronger thunderstorms were forming on the western side of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Luban will move through a region that is somewhat favorable for intensification.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level ridge will continue to cause some vertical wind shear, but the winds are expected to weaken during the next day or two.  Tropical Cyclone Luban is forecast to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Luban is between the upper level ridge over India and another upper level ridge over Saudi Arabia.  As a result the steering winds are weak and Luban is moving slowly toward the west-northwest.  When Tropical Cyclone Luban moves farther west, the upper ridge over Saudi Arabia will steer it in a west-northwesterly direction.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Luban could approach western Oman and eastern Yemen in four or five days.

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Mekunu Lashes Western Oman

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Mekunu lashed western Oman late on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mekunu was located at latitude 16.8°N and longitude 53.7°E which put it about 30 miles (50 km) south-southwest of Salalah, Oman.  Mekunu was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Mekunu intensified into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Friday as it approached the coast of western Oman.  The circulation contracted around a small circular eye.  A well formed ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of strong thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Mekunu.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Mekunu.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 120 miles (195 km) from the center of circulation.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Mekunu was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index was 31.9.  These indices indicate that Tropical Cyclone Mekunu is capable of causing regional major damage.

Winds near the core of Tropical Cyclone Mekunu will be capable of causing major damage near the coast of western Oman.  The rainbands revolving around the core will cause minor damage within 100 miles (160 km) of the center of Mekunu.  Strong winds near and east of the center of circulation will be capable of causing a storm surge of 9 to 13 feet (3 to 4 meters) at the coast.  Strong thunderstorms will drop heavy rain, especially in places where the air flows up slopes.  Significant flash flooding will be possible in normally arid locations.

Tropical Cyclone Mekunu Nears Western Oman

Tropical Cyclone Mekunu neared western Oman late on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mekunu was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 54.2°E which put it about 125 miles (200 km) south of Salalah, Oman.  Mekunu was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 964 mb.

There was a small eye at the center of circulation of Tropical Cyclone Mekunu.  The eye was surrounded by a tight ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the tropical cyclone.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 200 miles (320 km) from the center.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Mekunu was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 21.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 38.1.  These indices indicate that Tropical Cyclone Mekunu is capable of producing widespread serious damage.

Tropical Cyclone Mekunu will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours while it approaches the coast.  Mekunu will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It is moving under the western end of an upper level ridge.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Mekunu could strengthen a little more before it approaches the coast.  When Tropical Cyclone Mekunu approaches the Arabian Peninsula, it will begin to pull drier air into the western side of the circulation.  Mekunu will start to weaken when the drier air reaches the core of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Mekunu is moving around the western end of the upper level ridge.  The ridge will steer Mekunu toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Mekunu will make landfall near the border between Oman and Yemen in 12 to 18 hours.  Mekunu will produce winds to hurricane/typhoon force near where the center makes landfall.  Winds to tropical storm force will occur east and west of the core.  It will drop locally heavy rain and flash flooding will be likely.  There could also be a storm surge of 6 to 10 feet (2 to 3 meters) near where the center makes landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Mekunu Passes By Socotra Island

Tropical Cyclone Mekunu passed by Socotra Island on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mekunu was located at latitude 13.3°N and longitude 55.5°E which put it about 285 miles (460 km) south-southeast of Salalah, Oman.  Mekunu was moving toward the north-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

The inner core of Tropical Cyclone Mekunu passed east of Socotra Island on Wednesday.  However, several strong rainbands in the western half of the tropical cyclone did pass over the island.  Those bands dropped locally heavy rain and they may have produced winds to tropical storm force,  Rain was still falling over parts of the island and the potential for flooding continued.

Tropical Cyclone Mekunu intensified quickly into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Wednesday.  An eye formed at the center of circulation.  A nearly complete ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  The northeastern part of the ring was the weakest section of the eyewall.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Mekunu.  The strongest rainbands were south and west of the center of circulation,  Bands northeast of the center consisted primarily of low clouds and showers.  Thunderstorms near the core of Mekunu were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 230 miles (370 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Mekunu was 13.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 21.9.  The Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 35.8.

Tropical Cyclone Mekunu will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Mekunu will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move near the western end of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce weak southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent further intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Makunu could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

The upper level ridge steered Tropical Cyclone Mekunu toward the north-northwest on Wednesday and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.   On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Mekunu could approach the coast of western Oman and eastern Yemen within 48 hours.  Mekunu will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain when it reaches the coast.