Monthly Archives: May 2024

Tropical Depression 01W Brings Wind and Rain to Samar

Tropical Depression 01W brought wind and rain to Samar in the Philippines on Friday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression 01W was located at latitude 11.6°N and longitude 125.1°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) northeast of Tacloban, Philippines. The tropical depression was moving toward the north-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A low pressure system over Samar in the Philippines strengthened on Friday. Both the Japan Meteorological Agency and the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center classified the system as a tropical depression. The center of Tropical Depression 01W was over Samar. Thunderstorms were occurring near the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Depression 01W. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression 01W will move through an environment that will be mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31°C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical depression. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. Even though Tropical Depression 01W will move through a mostly favorable environment, it will not intensify until the center moves back over water.

Tropical Depression 01W will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is east of the Philippines. The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression 01W will move across Samar during the next few hours. It will move across southeastern Luzon on Saturday.

Tropical Depression 01W will continue to drop heavy rain on Samar. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. The tropical depression will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to southeastern Luzon and Catanduanes Island on Saturday. Flash floods could also occur in those locations. Tropical Depression 01W will also cause rough seas in the areas around Samar and southeastern Luzon.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy Weakens Near Kenya and Somalia

Tropical Cyclone Ialy weakened near the coast of Kenya and Somalia on Wednesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy was located at latitude 2.9°S and longitude 42.7°E which put it about 200 miles (320 km) northeast of Mombasa, Kenya and about 170 miles (275 km) south of Kismayo, Somalia. Ialy was moving toward the northeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Westerly winds blowing around the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Ialy pulled drier air from east Africa into its circulation. The drier air was pulled around Ialy’s circulation and some of the drier air reached the center of Ialy. The drier air caused many of the thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone Ialy to dissipate. Some thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the eastern part of Ialy’s circulation. Upper level divergence decreased when the thunderstorms dissipated. The decrease in upper level divergence caused mass to accumulate at the surface and the surface pressure increased. Tropical Cyclone Ialy weakened rapidly during Tuesday night when the surface pressure increased. Ialy weakened from the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon to the equivalent of a tropical depression.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ialy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, the drier air will continue to be pulled from east Africa into Ialy’s circulation. The drier air will cause the remaining thunderstorms to dissipate. Tropical Cyclone Ialy will to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours. The circulation around Ialy could dissipate during the next day or so.

As the remaining thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Ialy dissipate, Ialy will be steered by winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the equatorial Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ialy slowly toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center Tropical Cyclone Ialy will remain off the coast of northern Kenya and southern Somalia. Ialy could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Ialy strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon near the coast of Kenya and southern Somalia on Tuesday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy was located at latitude 4.3°S and longitude 42.9°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) east of Mombasa, Kenya. Ialy was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy strengthened on Tuesday morning and Meteo France La Reunion indicated that Ialy had intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon. The center of Ialy’s circulation was at latitude 4.3°S, which demonstrates again that it is possible for a strong tropical cyclone to occur near the Equator if the environment is favorable. There is no record of another tropical cyclone occurring where Ialy is located in databases going back to 1945.

A band of thunderstorms wrapped around the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy. Some satellite images showed evidence of a small eye at the center of Ialy’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Ialy was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move into an environment that will be more unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ialy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, Tropical Cyclone Ialy is likely to pull drier air from east Africa toward its circulation. So far, the drier air has remained outside of Ialy’s circulation, but the drier air could start to inhibit formation of thunderstorms in the northern part of Ialy. Tropical Cyclone Ialy is likely to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the equatorial Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ialy toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move toward the coast of northern Kenya and southern Somalia.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy could bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coastal sections of northern Kenya and southern Somalia. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Ialy could also cause a storm surge of up to seven feet (two meters) along the coast of northern Kenya and southern Somalia.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy Moves Southeast of Kenya

Tropical Cyclone Ialy moved southeast of Kenya on Monday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy was located at latitude 5.5°S and longitude 43.7°E which put it about 235 miles (380 km) east-southeast of Mombasa, Kenya. Ialy was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy exhibited a more symmetrical structure on Monday morning. Showers and thunderstorms were occurring in all quadrants of Ialy’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to remain low.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move into an environment that will be more unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ialy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, Tropical Cyclone Ialy is likely to start to pull drier air from east Africa toward its circulation. The drier air could start to inhibit formation of thunderstorms in the northern part of Ialy’s circulation. Tropical Cyclone Ialy is likely to weaken slowly during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ialy toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Ialy will remain south of Kenya.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy Churns East of Tanzania

Tropical Cyclone Ialy churned over the South Indian Ocean east of Tanzania on Sunday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy was located at latitude 7.2°S and longitude 45.1°E which put it about 405 miles (650 km) east of Dar es Salaam, Tanzaniar. Ialy was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

The core of Tropical Cyclone Ialy was completely surrounded by drier air, but the drier air had not penetrated the core by Sunday morning. Thunderstorms were still occurring in the inner ends of bands near the center of Ialy’s circulation. The outer portions of bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Ialy’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move into an environment that will be more unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ialy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, the drier air surrounding the core of Ialy’s circulation will inhibit formation of thunderstorms. Tropical Cyclone Ialy is likely to start to weaken during the next 24 hours after the drier air penetrates the core of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ialy toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Ialy will remain east of Tanzania. Ialy could move east of Kenya on Monday.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy Spins North of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Ialy continued to spin over the South Indian Ocean north of Madagascar on Saturday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy was located at latitude 7.7°S and longitude 47.7°E which put it about 305 miles (490 km) north-northwest of Antsiranana, Madagascar. Ialy was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The vertical wind shear decreased during Friday night and Saturday morning, and Tropical Cyclone Ialy intensified a little more. Drier air was pulled around the eastern side of Ialy’s circulation and the distribution of thunderstorms remained asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Ialy. Thunderstorms were also occurring near the center of Ialy’s circulation. Bands in the eastern part of Tropical Cyclone Ialy consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Thunderstorms near the center of Ialy generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move into an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ialy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However, an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ialy’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. In addition, the drier air in the eastern side of Ialy’s circulation will inhibit formation of thunderstorms in that region. Tropical Cyclone Ialy is likely to start to weaken slowly during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ialy slowly toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Ialy will remain move farther north of Madagascar. Ialy is likely to remain northeast of the Aldabra Islands.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy Moves North of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Ialy moved north of Madagascar on Friday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy was located at latitude 8.7°S and longitude 50.1°E which put it about 225 miles (360 km) north-northeast of Antsiranana, Madagascar. Ialy was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

After strengthening a little on Thursday, Tropical Cyclone Ialy began to move into a less favorable environment on Friday. Ialy moved under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge produced northeasterly winds that blew toward the top of Ialy’s circulation. Those winds caused the vertical wind shear to increase. The wind shear also allowed drier air to wrap closer around the northern and eastern sides of the center of Tropical Storm Ialy.

The effects of more vertical wind shear and the drier air was beginning to affect the structure of Tropical Cyclone Ialy. Thunderstorms were still occurring near the center of Ialy’s circulation. Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the southern and western parts of Tropical Cyclone Ialy. Bands in the northern and eastern parts of Ialy’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The northeasterly winds in the upper levels were inhibiting upper level divergence. Less mass was being removed from Tropical Cyclone Ialy and the surface pressure was slowly increasing.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ialy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However, the upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean will produce moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear will continue to allow drier air to be pulled closer to the center of Ialy’s circulation. Tropical Cyclone Ialy is likely to weaken slowly during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ialy slowly toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Ialy will remain north of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy Forms Northeast of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Ialy formed over the South Indian Ocean northeast of Madagascar on Thursday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy was located at latitude 9.1°S and longitude 52.4°E which put it about 300 miles (485 km) northeast of Antsiranana, Madagascar. Ialy was moving toward the southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean near northern Madagascar strengthened on Thursday and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Ialy. The flow of air around Tropical Cyclone Ialy appeared to be pulling drier air into the northern part of its circulation. The distribution of thunderstorms around Ialy was asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern part of Tropical Cyclone Ialy. Bands in the northern part of Ialy’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern and western sides of the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy. Storms near the center or circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ialy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, the drier air in the northern part of Ialy’s circulation could inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Ialy is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours unless the drier air gets pulled into the center of its circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ialy slowly toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move north of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya Makes Landfall in Tanzania

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya made landfall in Tanzania on Saturday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Hidaya was located at latitude 7.5°S and longitude 38.4°E which put it about 40 miles (650 km) south of the Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Hidaya was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya made landfall on the coast of Tanzania south of Dar es Salaam on Saturday. The center of Hidaya’s circulation crossed the coast near Kisiju. Tropical Cyclone Hidaya was the equivalent of a tropical storm at the time of landfall. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of Hidaya’s circulation. Tropical Cyclone Hidaya brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the southeastern part of Tanzania.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean and southern Africa. The high pressure system will steer Hidaya toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will move farther inland over southern Tanzania.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will weaken rapidly as it moves farther inland. Hidaya will move into a region of drier air which will cause it to weaken rapidly as it moves inland. Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will continue to produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain over parts of southern Tanzania during the next 24 hours. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya Nears Tanzania

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya neared the coast of Tanzania on Friday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Hidaya was located at latitude 7.8°S and longitude 40.5°E which put it about 125 miles (200 km) southeast of the Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Hidaya was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya started to weaken on Friday as it approached the coast of Tanzania. Westerly winds blowing around the northern side of Hidaya’s circulation pulled drier air that was over Africa into the tropical cyclone. The drier air circulated around the northern and eastern parts of Tropical Cyclone Hidaya. When the drier air reached rainbands in those parts of Hidaya’s circulation, some of the thunderstorms weakened. When the thunderstorms weakened, the upper level divergence decreased. Less mass was pumped away from the tropical cyclone and the surface pressure started to increase.

Even though Tropical Cyclone Hidaya started to weaken, its circulation was still well organized. A small circular eye was evident at the center of Hidaya’s circulation in infrared satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a narrow ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were still occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Hidaya. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Hidaya’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will move through an environment that will become more unfavorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Hidaya will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will pull more drier air that is currently over Africa into its circulation as it moves closer to the coast of Tanzania. The drier air is likely to cause more thunderstorms to weaken, which will further decrease the upper level divergence. The surface pressure will continue to increase as the upper level divergence decreases. Tropical Cyclone Hidaya is likely to continue to weaken during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the Hidaya toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will approach the coast of Tanzania near Dar es Salaam in 12 hours. Hidaya will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to eastern Tanzania. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Hidaya will also bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Zanzibar and Mafia Island. Tropical Cyclone Hidaya could also produce a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the coast of Tanzania.