Monthly Archives: July 2024

Hurricane Beryl Approaches the Yucatan

Hurricane Beryl was approaching the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 19.6°N and longitude 85.5°W which put the center about 135 miles (220 km) east-southeast of Tulum, Mexico.  Beryl was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (220 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 964 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun, Mexico.  A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for Cozumel.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Cancun, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Campeche to Cancun, Mexico.   A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Chetumal, Mexico to Belize City, Belize.

After weakening earlier on Thursday, a U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Hurricane Beryl had strengthened back to a major hurricane on Thursday evening.  The reconnaissance plane found an eye with a diameter of 14 miles (22 km) was at the center of Beryl’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.  Storms near the core of Beryl’s circulation generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The increase in upper level divergence caused the surface pressure to decrease again.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Beryl decreased on Thursday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 30.4.  Hurricane Beryl was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sally when Sally hit Alabama in 2020.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level low over Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level low will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be enough to prevent strengthening  Hurricane Beryl could intensify during the next few hours.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that extends over the western Atlantic Ocean and southeastern U.S.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Beryl will reach the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday morning.

Hurricane Beryl will be able to cause regional major damage when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula.  Beryl will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Yucatan.  Widespread electricity outages are likely.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Hurricane Beryl could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) where the wind blows the water toward the coast.

 

Tropical Storm Aletta Forms West of Mexico

Tropical Storm Aletta formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Mexico on Thursday afternoon.  This is the latest date for the formation of the first tropical storm over the Eastern North Pacific basin during the satellite era.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Aletta was located at latitude 17.9°N and longitude 107.0°W which put the center about 190 miles (310 km) west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Aletta was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Mexico strengthened on Thursday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Aletta.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Aletta’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in a band in the western part of Tropical Storm Aletta.  Bands in the other parts of Aletta’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storm near the center of Aletta began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Aletta was very small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the northern half of Aletta’s circulation.  The winds in the souther half of Tropical Storm Aletta were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Aletta will move into an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Aletta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Southwest U.S.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly wind that will blow toward the top of Aletta’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Aletta could intensify a little during Thursday night, but cooler water and moderate wind shear are likely to end the intensification by Friday morning.  Aletta is likely to weaken to a tropical depression on Friday.

Tropical Storm Aletta will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Aletta toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Aletta will move farther away from the coast of Mexico.

Hurricane Beryl Buffets the Cayman Islands

Hurricane Beryl buffeted the Cayman Islands on Thursday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 19.0°N and longitude 82.6°W which put the center about 95 miles (150 km) west-southwest of Grand Cayman.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (220 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 971 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Grand Cayman, Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.  A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun, Mexico.  A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Cozumel.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Cancun, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Campeche to Cancun, Mexico.   A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Chetumal, Mexico to Belize City, Belize.

Hurricane Beryl buffeted the Cayman Islands with wind and rain on Thursday morning.  The core of Beryl’s circulation passed south of Grand Cayman.  So, the strongest winds and heaviest rain remained south of the Cayman Islands.  A weather station at Owen Roberts International Airport in Grand Cayman (MWCR) reported a sustained wind speed of 44 m.p.h. (71 km/h) and a wind gust of 54 m.p.h. (87 km/h).

An upper level low over the Gulf of Mexico was producing westerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Hurricane Beryl.  Those winds were also causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear was affecting the structure of Hurricane Beryl.  An eye with a diameter of 23 miles (37 km) was at the center of Beryl’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storm.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the northern and eastern parts of Hurricane Beryl.  Bands in the southern and western parts of Beryl’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The westerly winds in the upper levels were inhibiting the divergence to the west of Hurricane Beryl.  Since the removal of mass was less than the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere, the surface pressure was increasing slowly.

Even though Hurricane Beryl was weaker, Beryl was still a major hurricane.  The circulation around Hurricane Beryl was a little smaller on Thursday morning.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 31.0.  Hurricane Beryl was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sally when Sally hit Alabama in 2020.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment that will only marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level low over Gulf of Mexico and Northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The upper level low will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  Those winds will also moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear is likely to cause Hurricane Beryl to continue to weaken unless the upper level winds weaken.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that extends over the western Atlantic Ocean and southeastern U.S.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Beryl will reach the Yucatan Peninsula early on Friday.

Hurricane Beryl is likely to still be a hurricane when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula.  Beryl will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Yucatan.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Hurricane Beryl could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) where the wind blows the water toward the coast.

 

 

 

Hurricane Beryl Brings Wind and Rain to Jamaica

Hurricane Beryl brought wind and rain to Jamaica on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 18.0°N and longitude 79.2°W which put the center about 160 miles (260 km) southeast of Grand Cayman.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Jamaica, Grand Cayman, Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.  A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun, Mexico.  A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Cozumel.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Cancun, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Campeche to Cancun, Mexico.   A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Chetumal, Mexico to Belize City, Belize.

Hurricane Beryl brought strong winds and heavy rain to Jamaica on Wednesday.  The center of Beryl’s circulation passed just to the south of Jamaica.  The northern eyewall of Hurricane Beryl moved along the south coast of Jamaica.  The strongest winds occurred in the southern part of Jamaica.  A weather station at Norman Manley International Airport in Kingston (MKJP) reported a sustained wind speed of 48 m.p.h. (78 km/h) and a wind gust of 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The strongest part of Hurricane Beryl passed south of that station.  There were report of wind damage and flooding in parts of Jamaica.

The most of the core of Hurricane Beryl passed just south of Jamaica and the core remained relatively intact.  Reconnaissance aircraft reported an eye with a diameter of 28 miles (45 km) at the center of Beryl’s circulation.  There was a ring of thunderstorms around the eye, but there was a break in the southwestern part of the ring.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  Westerly winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere were inhibiting divergence of mass to the west of Hurricane Beryl.  Since the removal of mass was less than the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere, the surface pressure was increasing slowly.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Beryl was nearly steady on Wednesday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 38.1. Hurricane Beryl was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2018.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment that will be less favorable for a powerful hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level low over Gulf of Mexico and Northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The upper level low will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  Those winds will also cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Hurricane Beryl will continue to weaken as the wind shear increases.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Beryl will pass south of the Cayman Islands during Wednesday night.

Hurricane Beryl will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Cayman Islands.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  Beryl could cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) where the wind blows the water toward the shower.

Hurricane Beryl will approach the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday evening.  Beryl is likely to still be a hurricane when it approaches the Yucatan.

 

 

Major Hurricane Beryl Nears Jamaica

Major Hurricane Beryl neared Jamaica on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 17.1°N and longitude 76.1°W which put the center about 75 miles (120 km) southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Jamaica, Grand Cayman, Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.  A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun, Mexico.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Cancun, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the south coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Cancun, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Chetumal, Mexico to Belize City, Belize.  A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Campeche, Mexico.

U.S. Air Force Reserve and NOAA aircraft found that Hurricane Beryl was still a major hurricane on Wednesday morning.   Although the eye appeared cloud filled on visible satellite images, the reconnaissance aircraft reported a circular eye with a diameter of 23 miles (37 km) was present at the center of Beryl’s circulation.   The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.   Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.   Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  Westerly winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere were inhibiting divergence of mass to the west of Hurricane Beryl.  Since the removal of mass was less than the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere, the surface pressure was increasing slowly.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Beryl was nearly steady during Wednesday morning.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 29.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 43.9.  Hurricane Beryl was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Ida when Ida hit Louisiana in 2021.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment that will be less favorable for a powerful hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level low over Northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The upper level low will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  Those winds will also cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Hurricane Beryl will weaken as the wind shear increases.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Beryl pass near the southern coast of Jamaica on Wednesday afternoon.  Beryl will begin to affect the Cayman Islands later on Wednesday evening.

The core of Hurricane Beryl is likely to pass just south of Jamaica during the next few hours.  Much of Jamaica could experience winds to hurricane force.  The strongest winds will occur along the southern coast of Jamaica.   Beryl will be capable of causing regional major damage. Widespread electricity outages are likely.  Hurricane Beryl will also drop heavy rain on Jamaica.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods.  Beryl could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along the south coast of Jamaica where the wind blows the water toward the coast.

Hurricane Beryl will reach the Cayman Islands on Wednesday night. Beryl is forecast still to be a hurricane when it reaches the Cayman Islands.  Hurricane Beryl will be capable of causing regional serious damage when it reaches the Cayman Islands.

Hurricane Beryl will approach the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday evening.  Beryl is likely to still be a hurricane when it approaches the Yucatan.

Dangerous Hurricane Beryl Moves Closer to Jamaica

Dangerous Hurricane Beryl moved closer to Jamaica on Tuesday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 16.2°N and longitude 72.7°W which put the center about 300 miles (400 km) east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.   Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Jamaica, Grand Cayman, Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the South coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic.  A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the south coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Chetumal, Mexico to Belize City, Belize.

U.S. Air Force Reserve and NOAA aircraft continued to fly reconnaissance into Hurricane Beryl on Tuesday evening.  A circular eye with a diameter of 23 miles (37 km) was present at the center of Beryl’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass was nearly equal to the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The equilibrium between upper level divergence and lower level convergence caused the surface pressure to remain nearly steady.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Beryl increased on Tuesday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 31.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 45.2.  Hurricane Beryl was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Ida when Ida hit Louisiana in 2021.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment that will be less favorable for a powerful hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move closer to an upper level low over Northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The upper level low will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Hurricane Beryl will weaken when the wind shear increases.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Beryl will begin to affect Jamaica by Wednesday morning.

Hurricane Beryl is likely to be a major hurricane when it reaches Jamaica.  Beryl will be capable of causing regional major damage.  Widespread electricity outages are likely.  Hurricane Beryl will also drop heavy rain on Jamaica.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods.  Beryl could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) where the wind blows the water toward the coast.

The circulation around the northern side of Hurricane Beryl will cause the water level to rise along the south coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti.  There are already reports of a storm surge along the south coast of Dominican Republic.

Hurricane Beryl will reach the Cayman Islands on Wednesday night.  Beryl is forecast still to be a hurricane when it reaches the Cayman Islands.

 

 

Powerful Hurricane Beryl Moves Toward Jamaica

Powerful Hurricane Beryl moved over the Caribbean Sea toward Jamaica on Tuesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 68.9°W which put the center about 555 miles (895 km) east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.   Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 938 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Jamaica.

Hurricane Watches were in effect for Grand Cayman, Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.  A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for the South coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the south coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic.

U.S. Air Force Reserve and NOAA aircraft determined that Hurricane Beryl was still a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Tuesday morning.  A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was present at the center of Beryl’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane in all directions.  The removal of large amounts of mass was nearly equal to the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The equilibrium between upper level divergence and lower level convergence caused the surface pressure to remain nearly steady.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Beryl increased on Tuesday morning.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 170 miles (280 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 48.7.  Hurricane Beryl was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Michael when Michael hit Northwest Florida in 2018.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment that will become less favorable for a powerful hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move closer to an upper level trough over Northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Hurricane Beryl will start to weaken when the wind shear increases.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Beryl will move toward Jamaica.  The core of Beryl’s could reach Jamaica by late Wednesday morning.

Hurricane Beryl is likely to be a major hurricane when it reaches Jamaica.  Beryl will be capable of causing regional major damage.  Widespread electricity outages are likely.  Hurricane Beryl will also drop heavy rain on Jamaica.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods.  Beryl could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) where the wind blows the water toward the coast.

The circulation around the northern side of Hurricane Beryl will cause the water level to rise along the south coasts of Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti.  There are already reports of a storm surge along the south coast of Puerto Rico.

Hurricane Beryl Intensifies to Cat. 5

Hurricane Beryl intensified to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the eastern Caribbean Sea on Monday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 64.9°W which put the center about 840 miles (1355 km) east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 938 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Jamaica.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the south coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic.

A NOAA research aircraft determined on Monday evening that Hurricane Beryl had intensified to a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was present at the center of Beryl’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane in all directions.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to continue to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Beryl remained relatively constant during Monday evening.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 47.6.  Hurricane Beryl was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Michael when Michael hit Northwest Florida in 2018.

The eye of Hurricane Beryl moved over Carriacou Island earlier on Monday.  There were reports of significant damage on that island.  The core of Beryl’s circulation passed just to the north of Grenada.  A weather station at Maurice Bishop International airport in Grenada (TGPY) reported a sustained wind speed of 92 m.p.h. (148 km/h) and a wind gust of 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment favorable for a powerful hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean and eastern Caribbean Sea.  The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere are also blowing from the east and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Beryl could intensify during the next 24 hours unless another Eyewall Replacement Cycle occurs.  The vertical wind shear is forecast to increase on Wednesday and Beryl is likely to weaken when the wind shear increases.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Beryl will move toward Jamaica.  Beryl could reach Jamaica on Wednesday.  Hurricane Beryl will pass south of Puerto Rico on Tuesday morning.  Beryl will move south of Hispaniola later on Tuesday.

 

 

Hurricane Beryl Batters the Grenadine Islands

Hurricane Beryl battered the Grenadine Islands on Monday.  At 12:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 12.5°N and longitude 61.5°W which put the center about 15 miles (25 km) west of Carriacou Island.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 180 m.p.h. (290 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 950 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Barbados, Grenada, Tobago, and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands.

A Hurricane Watch was is in effect for Jamaica.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for St. Lucia, Martinique and Trinidad.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti.  A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the south coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic.

Hurricane Beryl intensified rapidly after it completed an Eyewall Replacement Cycle early on Monday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 23 miles (37 km) was present at the center of Beryl’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane in all directions.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

Completion of the Eyewall Replacement Cycle caused the size of the circulation around Hurricane Beryl to increase.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 31.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 44.1.  Hurricane Beryl was similar in intensity and just a little smaller than Hurricane Ida was when Ida hit Louisiana in 2021.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean and eastern Caribbean Sea.  The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere are also blowing from the east and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Beryl is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours unless another Eyewall Replacement Cycle occurs.  There is a chance that Hurricane Beryl could strengthen to a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Beryl will move away from the Windward Islands during the next few hours.  Beryl will pass south of Puerto Rico on Tuesday.

The core of Hurricane Beryl is passing over the Grenadine Islands.  Beryl is capable of causing regional severe damage.  Widespread outages of electricity are likely.  Hurricane Beryl will also drop heavy rain.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Hurricane Beryl could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) on the parts of islands where the wind blows the water toward the shore.

Hurricane Beryl will also bring strong winds and heavy rain in Grenada, St. Vincent, and St. Lucia, Tobago, and Martinique. Gusty winds and heavy rain could occur in Tobago and Martinique.  The wind speeds should diminish in Barbados and Trinidad as Hurricane Beryl moves farther away..

 

 

 

 

Hurricane Beryl Nears the Windward Islands

Hurricane Beryl neared the Windward Islands on Monday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 12.0°N and longitude 60.5°W which put the center about 70 miles (110 km) east of Grenada.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Barbados, Grenada, Tobago, and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for St. Lucia, Martinique and Trinidad.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti.  A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the south coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic.

Hurricane Beryl quickly completed an Eyewall Replacement Cycle early on Monday.  Beryl began to intensify again after completion of the Eyewall Replacement Cycle.  A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was present at the center of Hurricane Beryl.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane in all directions.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to start to decrease again.

Completion of the Eyewall Replacement Cycle caused the size of the circulation around Hurricane Beryl to increase.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 36.9.  Hurricane Beryl was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean and eastern Caribbean Sea.  The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere are also blowing from the east and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Beryl is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours unless another Eyewall Replacement Cycle occurs.  There is a chance that Hurricane Beryl could strengthen to a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Beryl will hit Grenada and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands in a few hours.

The core of Hurricane Beryl will pass very close to Grenada and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands in a few hours.  Beryl will be capable of causing regional severe damage.  Widespread outages of electricity are likely.  Hurricane Beryl will also drop heavy rain.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Hurricane Beryl could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) on the parts of islands where the wind blows the water toward the shore.

Hurricane Beryl will also bring strong winds and heavy rain in St. Lucia, Tobago, and Martinique.  Gusty winds and heavy rain could occur in Barbados and Trinidad.

Elsewhere, former Tropical Storm Chris brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Mexico.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Chris was located at latitude 20.2°N and longitude 97.7°W which put the center about 60 miles (95 km) south-southwest of Tuxpan, Mexico.  Chris was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.