Monthly Archives: September 2025

Lorena Prompts Tropical Storm Watch for Baja California

The risk posed by Tropical Storm Lorena prompted the government of Mexico to issue a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the coast of southern Baja California.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located at latitude 19.4°N and longitude 109.0°W which put the center about 250 miles (400 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Lorena was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Lucas to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Lorena strengthened gradually on Tuesday afternoon.  Thunderstorms continued to develop near the center of Lorena’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Lorena.  Storms near the center of Lorena generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and west of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease slowly.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Lorena was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Lorena’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Lorena will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Lorena will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Lorena’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Lorena will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Lorena could strengthen to a hurricane on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Lorena will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Lorena toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Lorena will move south of Baja California during Tuesday night.  Lorena is expected to move toward the northeast later this week.  Tropical Storm Lorena could approach the coast of Baja California between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia on Friday.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Kiko strengthened to a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale far to the east of Hawaii.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Kiko was located at latitude 13.9°N and longitude 128.9°W which put the center about 1775 miles (2855 km) east Hilo Hawaii.  Kiko was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Depression Strengthens to Tropical Storm Lorena

Former Tropical Depression Twelve-E strengthened to Tropical Storm Lorena over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south-southeast of Baja California on Tuesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located at latitude 18.3°N and longitude 107.9°W which put the center about 345 miles (550 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Lorena was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Former Tropical Depression Twelve-E strengthened to Tropical Storm Lorena on Tuesday morning.  New thunderstorms continued to develop near the center of Lorena’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Lorena.  Storms near the center of Lorena generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and west of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Lorena was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Lorena’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Lorena will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Lorena will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over Mexico. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Lorena’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Lorena will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Lorena will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Lorena toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Lorena will move south of Baja California during Tuesday night.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, former Tropical Storm Kiko intensified to a hurricane far to the east of Hawaii.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Kiko was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 128.3°W which put the center about 1815 miles (2920 km) east Hilo Hawaii.  Kiko was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Tropical Depression 12E Forms Near Mexico’s West Coast

Tropical Depression Twelve-E formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean near the west coast of Mexico on Monday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Twelve-E was located at latitude 17.2°N and longitude 105.4°W which put the center about 145 miles (230 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Tropical Depression Twelve-E was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean strengthened on Monday evening and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Twelve-E.

The circulation around Tropical Depression Twelve-E exhibited more organization on Monday evening.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of the tropical depression.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Depression Twelve-E.  Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Twelve-E will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical depression.  The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east.  So, there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Depression Twelve-E will intensify to a tropical storm on Tuesday.

Tropical Depression Twelve-E will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Twelve-E will move toward Baja California.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Kiko intensified on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 127.3°W which put the center about 1880 miles (3025 km) east Hilo Hawaii.  Kiko was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.