Monthly Archives: January 2026

Tropical Storm Nokaen Develops East of the Philippines

Tropical Storm Nokaen developed over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines on Thursday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of the Tropical Storm Nokaen was located at latitude 10.2°N and longitude 128.8°E which put the center about 220 miles (335 km) east of Dinagat, Philippines.  Nokaen was moving toward the northwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A low pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines strengthened on Thursday morning and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Nokaen.

Thunderstorms were occurring near the center of Tropical Storm Nokaen.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the western and northern parts of Nokaen’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern and southern parts of Tropical Storm Nokaen consisted primarily of showers and thunderstorms.  Storms near the center of Nokaen generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of winds speeds in Tropical Storm Nokaen was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) in the northern half of Nokaen’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the southern half of Tropical Storm Nokaen.

Tropical Storm Nokaen will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Nokaen will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Nokaen’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Nokaen could intensify slowly during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Nokaen will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Nokaen toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Nokaen will move closer to the central Philippines.

Bands in the western side of Nokaen’s circulation will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Samar, Cataduanes Island, and southeastern Luzon.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai Moves West

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai moved toward the west over the South Indian Ocean on Wednesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was located at latitude 17.2°S and longitude 75.9°E which put the center about 740 miles (1195 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Dudzai was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai continued to be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it moved westward over the South Indian Ocean on Wednesday.  Thunderstorms continued to develop near the center of Dudzai’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.  Storms near the center of Dudzai generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the convergence of the mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure was nearly steady on Wednesday afternoon.

The strongest winds were occurring in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the southern half of Dudzai’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the southern side of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles in the northern half of Dudzai’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move into an environment that will become more favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move farther away from cooler water it mixed to the surface while it moved slowly during the beginning of this week.  Dudzai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.   It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dudzai’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai is likely to intensify on Thursday.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dudzai toward the west on during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will remain far to the south of Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai Weakens

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai weakened as it moved over the South Indian Ocean on Tuesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was located at latitude 17.2°S and longitude 77.5°E which put the center about 775 miles (1255 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Dudzai was moving toward the west at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai weakened on Tuesday.  Dudzai continued to move slowly over cooler water its winds had mixed to the surface of the ocean.  The cooler water contained less energy.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai weakened because it was extracting less energy from the ocean.

Even though Tropical Cyclone Dudzai weakened, its structure remained intact.  There was a very small circular eye at the center of Dudzai’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Dudzai’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Dudzai generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  However, the removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure was increasing.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Dudzai’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Dudzai is 13.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 9.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 23.7.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Hannah when Hannah hit Texas in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.   The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dudzai’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification.  In addition, the strong winds in the lower levels of Dudzai’s circulation will continue to mix cooler water to the surface of the South Indian Ocean.  The cooler water will transfer less energy into Tropical Cyclone Dudzai. Tropical Cyclone Dudzai is likely to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours due to the upwelling of cooler water.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move around the northeastern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dudzai toward the west on during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will remain far to the south of Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai Strengthens to Equivalent of Cat. 4 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai strengthened to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Monday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was located at latitude 17.1°S and longitude 78.0°E which put the center about 775 miles (1255 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Dudzai was moving toward the south-southeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 948 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai continued to intensify on Monday afternoon.  Dudzai strengthened to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  A small circular eye was present at the center of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Dudzai’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Dudzai generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to continue to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Dudzai’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Dudzai is 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 10.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 35.6.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai is similar in intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.  Dudzai is slightly smaller than Harvey was.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move through an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, the strong winds in the lower levels of Dudzai’s circulation will mix cooler water to the surface of the South Indian Ocean.  The cooler water will transfer less energy into Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai is likely to weaken during the next 24 hours due to the upwelling of cooler water.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move through a region where the steering winds are weak during the next 12 hours.  Dudzai is likely to move slowly toward the south during that time period.  A high pressure system that is southwest of Dudzai will start to steer it toward the west on Wednesday.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will remain far to the south of Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean on Sunday night.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was located at latitude 16.7°S and longitude 77.8°E which put the center about 745 miles (1205 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Dudzai was moving toward the south-southeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai continued to intensify rapidly on Sunday night.  A small circular eye was present at the center of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Dudzai’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Dudzai generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Dudzai’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dudzai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Dudzai could continue to intensify rapidly during the next few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move into a region where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours.  Dudzai is likely to move slowly toward the south during the next day or so.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move a little farther away from Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean on Sunday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was located at latitude 16.1°S and longitude 77.5°E which put the center about 700 miles (1125 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Dudzai was moving toward the south-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Sunday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Dudzai’s circulation.  A small circular eye formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Dudzai’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Dudzai generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Dudzai’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dudzai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Dudzai could continue to intensify rapidly during the next few hours.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dudzai toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move farther away from Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai Develops Over South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai developed over the South Indian Ocean on Saturday night.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was located at latitude 15.2°S and longitude 77.2°E which put the center about 625 miles (1005 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Dudzai was moving toward the southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean south-southeast of Diego Garcia strengthened on Saturday night and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai appeared to be intensifying rapidly on Sunday morning.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Dudzai’s circulation.  A small eye appeared to be forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Dudzai’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Dudzai generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Dudzai’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dudzai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Dudzai could intensify rapidly.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dudzai toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move farther away from Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Koji Brings Wind and Rain to Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Koji brought wind and rain to Queensland on Saturday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Koji was located at latitude 20.3°S and longitude 147.5°E which put the center about 45 miles (75 km) west of Bowen, Australia.  Koji was moving toward the south-southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology was maintaining a Warning for the portion of the coast of Queensland from Ayr to Mackay.  The Warning included Bowen and Proserpine.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Koji made landfall on the coast of Queensland between Ayr and Bowen on Saturday night.  The circulation around Koji was large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Koji’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Koji will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is east of Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Koji toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Koji will move inland over eastern Queensland.

Tropical Cyclone Koji will continue to bring strong winds and rain to parts of Queensland as it moves inland.  Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Koji will weaken gradually as Koji moves farther inland.

Major Flood Warnings are in effect for the Herbert River, the Pioneer River, the Flinders River, the Concurry Rivers, and the Haughton River Catchment.  Moderate Flood Warnings are in effect for the Bohle River, the Don River, the Norman River, the Thompson River, and the Tully River.  Flood Warnings are in effect for the Gilbert River, the Black River and Bluewater Creek.  Flood Watches are in effect for the Coastal Rivers between Cooktown and Rockhampton, and for the Cape York Peninsula.

Tropical Cyclone Koji Nears Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Koji was nearing the coast of Queensland on Saturday morning.  At 7:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Koji was located at latitude 17.9°S and longitude 147.9°E which put the center about 115 miles (185 km) northeast of Townsville, Australia.  Kohi was moving toward the south at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning that was in effect for the portion of the coast of Queensland from Lucinda to Mackay.  The Warning included Townsville, Palm Island, Bowen, Proserpine, and the Whitsunday Islands.

Tropical Cyclone Koji was strengthening as it neared the coast of Queensland on Saturday morning.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Koji’s circulation.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Koji.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Koji was very large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 220 miles (350 km) from the center of Koji’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Koji will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Koji will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Koji is likely to intensify during the next 12 hours.  Koji could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Koji will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is east of Australia.  The high pressure system will steer the Koji toward the south-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the  center of Tropical Cyclone Koji will reach the coast of Queensland near Ayr in 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Koji will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the portion of the coast between Lucinda and Mackay.  Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.

Major Flood Warnings are in effect for the Herbert River, the Pioneer River, the Flinders River, the Concurry Rivers, and the Haughton River Catchment.  Moderate Flood Warnings are in effect for the Bohle River, the Don River, the Norman River, the Thompson River, and the Tully River.  Flood Warnings are in effect for the Gilbert River, the Black River and Bluewater Creek.  Flood Watches are in effect for the Coastal Rivers between Cooktown and Rockhampton, and for the Cape York Peninsula.

Tropical Cyclone Koji could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the coast of Queensland.

Tropical Low Prompts Warning for Queensland

A Tropical Low over the Coral Sea prompted the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to issue a Warning for the coast of Queensland on Thursday night.  At 7:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 14.9°S and longitude 148.1°E which put the center about 210 miles (335 km) northeast of the Cairns, Australia.  The Tropical Low was moving toward the south-southwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for the portion of the coast of Queensland from Port Douglas to Airlie Beach.  The Warning includes Cairns, Innisfail, Townsville and Bowen.

A low pressure system over the Coral Sea was strengthening on Friday morning.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology was classifying the system as a Tropical Low.  The U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center was designating the system as Invest 92P.

A Tropical Low over the Coral Sea was strengthening on Friday morning.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northwestern part of the Tropical Low.  Another cluster of thunderstorms was located southeast of the center of circulation.  Storms near the center began to generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the Tropical Low.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the thunderstorms northwest and southeast of the center of the Tropical Low.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of circulation.

The Tropical Low will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The Tropical Low will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The Tropical Low is very likely to intensify to a named tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

The Tropical Low will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is east of Australia.  The high pressure system will steer the Tropical Low toward the south-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the Tropical Low will approach the coast of Queensland near Townsville in 24 hours.

The Tropical Low is likely to be the equivalent of a tropical storm when it approaches the coast.  It will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the portion of the coast between Port Douglas and Airlie Beach.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.