Tag Archives: Florida

Tropical Depression Fred Prompts Watches for Florida Keys and Southwest Florida

The forecast for Tropical Depression Fred prompted the National Hurricane Center to issue Tropical Storm Watches for the Florida Keys and the coast of Southwest Florida. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located at latitude 21.3°N and longitude 75.3°W which put it about 70 miles (110 km) east of Holguin, Cuba. Fred was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1012 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Watch was also issued for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to Ocean Reef, Florida including Florida Bay. Tropical Storm Watches remained in effect for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Holguin, Las Tunas and Granma.

Tropical Depression Fred was spinning just to the north of eastern Cuba on Thursday afternoon. The circulation around Fred was significantly weaker after its passage over mountains in the Dominican Republic and Haiti. A distinct low level rotation was evident on visible satellite images, but there were not a lot of thunderstorms near the center of circulation. New thunderstorms appeared to be developing in bands on the southeastern side of Tropical Depression Fred. Bands in the other parts of Fred consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Depression Fred will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Fred will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the southeastern part of an upper low over Florida. The upper low will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Fred’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and the shear will inhibit intensification. The southern part of the circulation around Tropical Depression Fred will pass over Cuba. The friction will be greater where the air flows over land and that will also inhibit intensification. Tropical Depression Fred could slowly strengthen if the center stays over the warm water north of Cuba, but intensification is likely to be gradual.

Tropical Depression Fred will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high will steer Fred toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. Fred will move more toward the northwest during the weekend, when it gets closer to the western end of the high pressure system. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Depression Fred will move near the northern coast of Cuba during the next 24 hours. Fred could approach the Florida Keys by Saturday morning. It will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Keys. Fred is likely to move over the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Fred Makes Landfall in Dominican Republic

Tropical Storm Fred made landfall on the coast of the Dominican Republic on Wednesday afternoon. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located at latitude 18.5°N and longitude 70.1°W which put it about 30 miles (50 km) west of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. Fred was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Palenque, Dominican Republic to the northern border with Haiti. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Gonaives, Haiti to the northern border with the Dominican Republic. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos. Tropical Storm Watches were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba and Guantanamo.

The center of Tropical Storm Fred made landfall on the south coast of the Dominican Republic west of Santo Domingo on Wednesday afternoon. Fred became better organized and a little stronger prior to making landfall. A band of thunderstorms wrapped around the eastern and northern sides of the center of Tropical Storm Fred. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm and the surface pressure decreased slightly. The strongest winds were occurring in the eastern half of Tropical Storm Fred. At the time of landfall winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Fred’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Fred will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high will steer Fred toward the west-northwest during the next several days. On its anticipate track Tropical Storm Fred will move across the western part of the Dominican Republic and northern Haiti during the next 24 hours. Fred will drop locally heavy rain and flash floods could occur in some locations.

Mountains in the Dominican Republic and Haiti will significantly disrupt the low level circulation of Tropical Storm Fred. Fred is likely to weaken to a tropical depression during the next 12 hours. The circulation of Tropical Storm Fred in the middle troposphere could survive passage over those mountains. The center of Tropical Storm Fred will move northwest of Haiti on Thursday. The Sea Surface Temperatures of the water northwest of Haiti are near 29°C. If the middle level circulation of Fred survives, it could spin up a new low level center of circulation when it moves back over the warm water. An upper level low near Florida will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Fred’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear and they will inhibit re-intensification of Tropical Storm Fred. If the center of Fred remains north of Cuba, it could strengthen back to a tropical storm. Fred could approach the Florida Keys and South Florida on Friday. It could move over the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.

Possible Development near Southeast U.S.

A low pressure system could develop near the coast of the Southeast U.S. during the next 48 hours. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of a developing low pressure system currently designated as Invest 90L was located at latitude 31.3°N and longitude 79.3°W which put it about 150 miles (240 km) east of Brunswick, Georgia. It was moving toward the east-southeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1017 mb.

Early morning visible satellite images appeared to show that a low pressure system was forming along a nearly stationary front off the coast of the southeast U.S. More thunderstorms were forming in the developing low pressure system and some rotation was evident in satellite loops. Thunderstorms appeared to be organizing into bands. The southern end of an upper level trough over the eastern U.S. was producing westerly that were blowing across the top of the developing low pressure system. Those winds were causing moderated vertical wind shear. The upper level winds were also inhibiting the development of thunderstorms on the western side of the developing low pressure system.

The low pressure system will move through an environment somewhat favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. The upper level trough will move northeast of the low pressure system on Saturday and the upper level winds will weaken. An upper level low east of the Bahamas could enhance upper level divergence to the southeast of the developing low pressure system. The National Hurricane Center is indicating the probability is 30% that a tropical cyclone forms during the next 48 hours. A reconnaissance plane has been tentatively tasked to investigate the system on Saturday afternoon, if necessary.

Tropical Storm Elsa Makes Landfall in Florida

Tropical Storm Elsa made landfall on the coast of north Florida on Wednesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located at latitude 29.9°N and longitude 83.6°W which put it about 20 miles (30 km) southwest of Perry, Florida. Elsa was moving toward the north at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Aripeka to Ochlockonee River, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the St. Marys River, Florida to Little River Inlet, South Carolina. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Sandy Hook New Jersey including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.

The center of Tropical Storm Elsa made landfall in Taylor County, Florida about 20 miles southwest of Perry around 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday. Elsa weakened from a hurricane to a strong tropical storm before it made landfall. Bands in the eastern half of the circulation around Tropical Storm Elsa dropped heavy rain over Florida. Rain was beginning to spread over southern Georgia. Gusty winds caused power outages in parts of Florida. Elsa caused a minor storm surge along the west coast of Florida.

Tropical Storm Elsa will weaken steadily during the next 48 hours while the center moves farther inland. Elsa will be steered toward the northeast during the next few days by an upper level trough over the Great Lakes. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Elsa will move over southern Georgia on Wednesday night. Elsa could be over South Carolina on Thursday morning and it could be over eastern Virginia by Thursday night. Elsa could strengthen back to a tropical storm if the center moves over the Atlantic Ocean later this week.

Tropical Storm Elsa will continue to drop locally heavy rain over northern Florida during the next few hours. Heavy rain will spread over southern Georgia, South Carolina, eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Gusty winds could cause sporadic power outages. There could be enough low level wind shear in stronger rainbands to produce tornadoes. When Tropical Storm Elsa gets closer to the East Coast of the U.S., southeasterly winds will blow water toward the coast. Those winds will cause water levels to rise along the coast

Elsa Strengthens Back to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Elsa strengthened back to a hurricane on Tuesday evening. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Elsa was located at latitude 26.6°N and longitude 83.1°W which put it about 100 miles (160 km) south-southwest of Tampa, Florida. Elsa was moving toward the north at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included Tampa, St. Petersburg and Clearwater. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Dry Tortugas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Flamingo to Egmont Key and from the Steinhatchee River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida. That warning included Naples, and Ft. Myers. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the St. Marys River to Altamaha Sound, Georgia. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia to the South Santee River, South Carolina.

Former Tropical Storm Elsa strengthened gradually throughout the day on Tuesday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped most of the way around the center of circulation and an eye appeared to be forming at the center of Elsa. Storms near near the center of circulation generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of more mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease, which caused the wind speed to increase. The distribution of thunderstorms around Hurricane Elsa remained asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Elsa. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Hurricane Elsa.

Hurricane Elsa will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Elsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge. The ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Hurricane Elsa. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear that will inhibit intensification. However, the southwesterly winds may also increase upper level divergence to the northeast of Elsa. Additional upper level divergence could cause the surface pressure to continue to decrease. Hurricane Elsa could intensify a little more on Tuesday night.

Hurricane Elsa will move around the western end of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next 36 hours. The high will steer Elsa toward the north on Tuesday night. Hurricane Elsa will turn toward the northeast on Wednesday when it reaches the westerly winds in the middle latitudes. On its anticipated track the center of Elsa will pass just to the west of Tampa on Tuesday night. Hurricane Elsa could make landfall near Cedar Key on Wednesday. The stronger winds and heavy rain will occur on the eastern side of Hurricane Elsa. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. After the center of Elsa moves north of Tampa, southwesterly winds will push water into Tampa Bay which could cause a storm surge of up to six feet (two meters). Hurricane Elsa could cause a storm surge of 2 to 5 feet (0.6 to 1.6 m) along other parts of the west coast of Florida. A higher storm surge could occur near Cedar Key when the center of Elsa makes landfall. Gusty winds could cause power outages in Florida and southeastern Georgia.

Hurricane Watch Issued for Florida for Tropical Storm Elsa

A Hurricane Watch was issued for a portion of the west coast of Florida because of Tropical Storm Elsa. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located at latitude 24.1°N and longitude 82.4°W which put it about 50 miles (80 km) southwest of Key West, Florida. Elsa was moving toward the north-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Egmont Key to Steinhatchee River, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key to the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Ochlockonee River, Florida. That warning included Naples, Ft. Myers, Tampa, St. Petersburg and Tampa Bay. Tropical Storm Warnings remained in effect for the Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana and Artemisa. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the St. Marys River, Georgia to the South Santee River, South Carolina.

The center of Tropical Storm Elsa was southwest of Key West, Florida on Tuesday morning. The National Weather Service office in Key West reported a wind gust of 47 m.p.h. (76 km/h). The distribution of thunderstorms around Elsa continued to be asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Elsa. Bands on the western side of the storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center or Elsa generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Elsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge. The ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Elsa. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear that will inhibit intensification. However, the southwesterly winds may also increase upper level divergence to the northeast of Elsa. Additional upper level divergence could cause the surface pressure to decrease on Tuesday. Tropical Storm Elsa could intensify on Tuesday and there is a chance that Elsa could strengthen to a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move around the western end of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next several days. The high will steer Elsa toward the north on Tuesday. Tropical Storm Elsa will turn toward the northeast on Wednesday when it reaches the westerly winds in the middle latitudes. On its anticipated track the center of Elsa will pass west of the Key West on Tuesday morning. The center of Tropical Storm Elsa could pass west of Tampa on Tuesday night. The stronger winds and heavy rain will occur on the eastern side of Elsa. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Winds pushing water toward the coast could cause a storm surge of up to six feet (two meters) in Tampa Bay. Tropical Storm Elsa could cause a storm surge of 2 to 5 feet (0.6 to 1.6 m) in the Florida Keys and along the west coast of Florida. A higher storm surge could occur near where the center of Elsa makes landfall. Gusty winds could cause power outages in the Florida Keys and on the Florida peninsula. Elsa will continue to drop heavy rain over parts of Cuba as rainbands on the southern side of the circulation move across the regions

Tropical Storm Elsa Crosses Cuba

Tropical Storm Elsa moved across Cuba during Monday afternoon and evening. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located at latitude 23.5°N and longitude 82.3°W which put it about 80 miles (130 km) south-southwest of Key West, Florida. Elsa was moving toward the north-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key to the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Ochlockonee River, Florida. That warning included Naples, Ft. Myers, Tampa, St. Petersburg and Tampa Bay. Tropical Storm Warnings remained in effect for the Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana and Artemisa. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida.

The center of Tropical Storm Elsa moved across western Cuba during Monday afternoon and evening. The center passed just to the east of Havana before it moved over water north of Cuba. Tropical Storm Elsa continued to exhibit an organized circulation on satellite and radar imagery even after it spent half a day over land. A reconnaissance plane found sustained winds of 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) over water north of Cuba. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern and northern sides of the center of Elsa. Strong thunderstorms were occurring in bands near south Florida and south of Cuba. Storms near the center of Tropical Storm Elsa generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Elsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge. The ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Elsa. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear that will inhibit intensification. However, the southwesterly winds may also increase upper level divergence to the northeast of Elsa. Tropical Storm Elsa could intensify on Tuesday and there is a chance that Elsa could strengthen to a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move around the western end of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next several days. The high will steer Elsa toward the north-northwest during the next few hours. Elsa will move more toward the north on Tuesday. On its anticipated track the center of Elsa will pass west of the Florida Keys on Tuesday morning. The center of Tropical Storm Elsa could pass west of Tampa on Tuesday night. The stronger winds and heavy rain will occur on the eastern side of Elsa. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Winds pushing water toward the coast could cause a storm surge of up to six feet (two meters) in Tampa Bay. Tropical Storm Elsa could cause a storm surge of 2 to 5 feet (0.6 to 1.6 m) in the Florida Keys and along the west coast of Florida. A higher storm surge could occur near where the center of Elsa makes landfall. Gusty winds could cause power outages in the Florida Keys and on the Florida peninsula. Elsa will continue to drop heavy rain over parts of Cuba as rainbands on the southern side of the circulation move across the regions

Tropical Storm Elsa Churns South of Cuba

Tropical Storm Elsa was churning south of Cuba on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located at latitude 21.5°N and longitude 81.2°W which put it about 20 miles (35 km) east-southeast of Cayo Largo, Cuba. Elsa was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key to the Dry Tortugas and for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Suwannee River, Florida. The Tropical Storm Warnings included Naples, Ft. Myers, Tampa, St. Petersburg and Tampa Bay. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Mayabeque, Havana, Artmemisa. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key to Ocean Reef including Florida Bay and for the portion of the coast from Suwannee River, Florida to Indian Pass, Florida.

Tropical Storm Elsa exhibited a little more organization on Monday morning. More thunderstorms formed north and east of the center of Elsa. However, the distribution of thunderstorms remained asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the east side of Tropical Storm Elsa. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles from the center of Elsa.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Elsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge. The ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Elsa. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear that will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Elsa could strengthen a little before it reaches Cuba. Elsa will weaken when the center crosses Cuba. Tropical Storm Elsa could regain some strengthen when it moves over warm water southwest of the Florida Keys, but the upper level ridge will continue to cause vertical wind shear.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move around the western end of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next several days. The high will steer Elsa toward the northwest during the next few hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Elsa will make landfall on the south coast of Cuba southeast of Havana in a few hours. The center of Elsa will pass west of the Florida Keys on Tuesday morning. The center of Tropical Storm Elsa could pass west of Tampa on Tuesday night. The stronger winds and heavy rain will occur on the eastern side of Elsa. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Winds pushing water toward the coast could cause a storm surge of up to six feet ( two meters) along the southern coast of Cuba. Tropical Storm Elsa could cause a storm surge of 2 to 4 feet (0.6 to 1.2 m) in the Florida Keys and along the west coast of Florida. A high storm surge could occur near where the center of Elsa makes landfall.

Tropical Storm Elsa Drops Heavy Rain on Cuba and Jamaica

Tropical Storm Elsa dropped heavy rain over Cuba and Jamaica on Sunday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located at latitude 19.8°N and longitude 77.9°W which put it about 15 miles (25 km) west of Cabo Cruz, Cuba. Elsa was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key to the Dry Tortugas. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key to Ocean Reef including Florida Bay, and for the portion of the coast from from Flamingo to Anclote River, Florida including Tampa Bay. Hurricane Watches were in effect for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas and Santiago de Cuba. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for Jamaica and for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas and Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cienfuegos, Villa Clara, Matanzas, Maybeque, and Havana. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Cayman Brac, Little Cayman and the Cuban province of Artemisa.

Tropical Storm Elsa exhibited organization on visible satellite images and images from weather radars in southeastern Cuba. However, reconnaissance planes flying through Elsa on Sunday morning reported that the tropical storm was not as organized as it appeared to be on satellite and radar images. The planes found that the maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and that the minimum surface pressure had increased to 1009 mb, which was an usually high pressure for a tropical storm.

The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands south and east of the center of Tropical Storm Elsa. Bands in the northwestern part of Elsa consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Air sinking down sides of mountains in southeastern Cuba may have been inhibiting the development of thunderstorms in the northwestern quadrant of the circulation. Storms near the center of Elsa generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Elsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under an upper level ridge where the winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Air on the northern side of Tropical Storm Elsa will pass over Cuba where friction will slow it. However, once Elsa moves west of Jamaica, air converging from the southwest will be able to blow directly toward the center of the tropical storm. A stronger flow of warm humid air from the southwest could provide more energy to the tropical storm. Tropical Storm Elsa could intensify on Monday and there is a chance it could strengthen back to a hurricane before the center moves over Cuba. Elsa will weaken when the center crosses Cuba.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move around the western end of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next several days. The high will continue to steer Tropical Storm Elsa toward the northwest on Sunday night. Elsa will move more toward the north-northwest on Monday. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Elsa could make landfall on the south coast of Cuba near Cienfuegos on Monday afternoon. Elsa could reach the Florida Keys on Monday night. Elsa will continue to cause gusty winds and locally heavy rain over parts of Jamaica and Cuba. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsa Weakens South of Hispaniola

Former Hurricane Elsa weakened back to tropical storm intensity while it passed south of Hispaniola on Saturday. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 73.0°W which put it about 255 miles (410 km) east of Kingston, Jamaica. Elsa was moving toward the west-northwest at 29 m.p.h. (46 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Port Au Prince, Haiti to the southern border with the Dominican Republic. Hurricane Watches were in effect for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas and Santiago de Cuba. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portion of the coast from Port Au Prince to the northern border with the Dominican Republic and from Punta Palenque, Dominican Republic to the southern border with Haiti. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for Jamaica and the Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Palenque to Cabo Engano, Dominican Republic. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Cayman Brac, Little Cayman and the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cienfuegos, Villa Clara and Matanzas.

Strong winds in the lower levels pushed the surface center of former Hurricane Elsa to the west of the center in the middle levels early on Saturday. The displacement between the two centers disrupted the vertical circulation of Elsa and it weakened back to tropical storm intensity. More thunderstorms started to develop east of the center of Tropical Storm Elsa on Saturday morning. Mountains in southwestern Haiti appeared to deflect the low level flow around the northern side of Elsa. More thunderstorms began forming to the north of the center of Tropical Storm Elsa on Saturday afternoon. A NOAA plane appeared to find that the surface pressure was decreasing again at the center of Elsa on Saturday afternoon. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Elsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. The center of Tropical Storm Elsa will pass just south of Haiti and just north of Jamaica. Elsa will move more slowly during the next 24 hours. It will move into a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be less vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Elsa could intensify back to a hurricane on Saturday night.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next 18 hours. The high will continue to steer Tropical Storm Elsa toward the west-northwest, but Elsa is likely to more more slowly. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. is forecast to weaken the high pressure system on Sunday. When the high weakens, then Tropical Storm Elsa will move more toward the northwest. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Elsa will pass just to the south of the southwestern coast of Haiti. The center of Tropical Storm Elsa could pass north of Jamaica and be near eastern Cuba by Sunday morning. Elsa could approach the Florida Keys on Monday. Elsa will cause gusty winds and locally heavy rain over parts of Haiti, Jamaica and Cuba.