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Tropical Storm Claudette Brings Rain to Southeast U.S.

Tropical Storm Claudette brought wind and rain to the southeastern U.S. on Saturday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Claudette was located at latitude 30.4°N and longitude 90.1°W which put it about 30 miles (50 km) north of New Orleans, Louisiana. Tropical Storm Claudette was moving toward the north-northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line, Florida including New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. The Tropical Storm Warning included Biloxi, Mississippi, Mobile, Alabama and Pensacola, Florida.

A well defined low level center of circulation formed in the system formerly called Potential Tropical Cyclone Three on Saturday morning and the National Hurricane Center classified the system as Tropical Storm Claudette. The strongest winds and heaviest rain were falling in bands north and east of the center of Claudette. Drier air was wrapping around the western and southern parts of Tropical Storm Claudette, Bands in those parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The stronger winds were occurring in the portion of the circulation that was still over the Gulf of Mexico. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) on the eastern side of Claudette. Winds on the western side of Claudette were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Claudette will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system southeast of the U.S. The high pressure system will steer it toward the northeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Claudette will move across southeastern Mississippi on Saturday and it could reach Alabama by Saturday night. Claudette will move across Georgia on Sunday and it could be over South Carolina by Sunday evening. Tropical Storm Claudette will drop locally heavy rain over parts of the southeastern U.S. Heavy rain could cause flash floods. Flash Flood Watches were in effect for parts of southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, northwestern Florida, and western Georgia. There may also be enough low level wind shear to produce tornadoes in the rainbands in the eastern side of the circulation.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Reaches Tropical Storm Force

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three reached tropical storm force south of Louisiana on Friday afternoon. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Three (03L) was located at latitude 27.3°N and longitude 91.1°W which put it about 165 miles (265 km) south of Morgan City, Louisiana. Potential Tropical Cyclone Three was moving toward the north at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line, Florida including New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. The Tropical Storm Warning included Biloxi, Mississippi, Mobile, Alabama and Pensacola, Florida.

The circulation around Potential Tropical Cyclone Three strengthened on Friday afternoon. A C-MAN station (BURL1) at Southwest Pass, Louisiana with an anemometer at a height of 38 meters reported a sustained wind speed of 44 m.p.h. (71 km/h) and a wind gust of 51 m.p.h. (82 km/h). The sustained wind speed was equivalent to a speed of 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) at a standard observation height of 10 meters.

The circulation around Potential Tropical Cyclone Three continued to consist of a broad low pressure system at the surface. The strongest winds were occurring northeast of the center of the broad low pressure system. A high pressure system southeast of the U.S. was contributing to a stronger pressure gradient in that region. The stronger pressure gradient was causing winds to blow at tropical storm force. The winds were weaker in the other parts of Potential Tropical Cyclone Three. There were several smaller circulations revolving counterclockwise around the broader Potential Tropical Cyclone Three. One of the smaller circulations was south of Louisiana and another one was over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands northeast of the broad center and in a long band on the eastern side of the circulation.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three will move through an environment slightly favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Potential Tropical Cyclone Three will move over an area where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move between an upper level low over eastern Texas and an upper level ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The low and ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Potential Tropical Cyclone Three. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and the shear will inhibit intensification. The upper level ridge will contribute to upper level divergence that will pump mass to the east of Potential Tropical Cyclone Three. There will also be drier air over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, which will make it difficult for thunderstorms to develop in that area. Potential Tropical Cyclone Three could intensify a little more during the next six hours. If a well defined surface center of circulation develops, the system could be designated as a tropical storm.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three will move around the western end of the high pressure system southeast of the U.S. The high pressure system will steer it toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Potential Tropical Cyclone Three will make landfall in southeastern Louisiana on Friday night. The system will move across southeastern Mississippi on Saturday and it could reach Alabama by Saturday night. It will bring gusty winds to southeast Louisiana and the coasts of Mississippi and Alabama. The system could cause a storm surge of 3 to 5 feet (1.0 to 1.5 meters) along parts of the coast. It will drop locally heavy rain when it moves inland. Heavy rain could cause flash floods over parts of the southeastern U.S. Flash Flood Watches were in effect for parts of southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, northwestern Florida, and western Georgia. There may also be enough low level wind shear to produce tornadoes when the rainbands in the eastern side of the circulation when it moves inland.

Tropical Storm Eta Brings Wind and Rain to Tampa

Tropical Storm Eta brought wind and rain to the area around Tampa and St. Petersburg on Wednesday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located at latitude 28.3°N and longitude 83.4°W which put it about 60 miles (95 km) west-northwest of Tampa, Florida. Eta was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Boca Grande to Suwannee River, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from the Flagler/Volusia County Line in Florida to St. Andrews Sound, Georgia. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Suwannee River to Aucilla River, Florida.

Bands revolving around the eastern side of Tropical Storm Eta brought wind and rain to the area around Tampa and St. Petersburg on Wednesday night. One band stretched from Sarasota to Tampa and another band was over Clearwater and Tarpon Springs. Heavy rain was dropping over those areas and there were reports of urban flooding. Since the center of Tropical Eta was west-northwest of Tampa, southwesterly winds were blowing water into Tampa Bay. There were reports of storm surges of several feet around the bay.

An upper level trough over the Central U.S. will steer Tropical Storm Eta toward the northeast on Thursday. On its anticipated track Eta will make landfall between Tarpon Springs and Cedar Key in a few hours. The trough will steer Tropical Storm Eta across northeastern Florida and out over the Atlantic Ocean. Eta could still be a tropical storm when it reaches the Atlantic which prompted the issuance of a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of northeastern Florida. Tropical Storm Eta could pass southeast of Charleston, South Carolina on Thursday night.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Theta was moving south-southwest of the Azores. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located at latitude 31.1°N and longitude 31.4°W which put it about 540 miles (865 km) south-southwest of the Azores. Theta was moving toward the east-northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Eta Strengthens to a Hurricane, Hurricane Watch for Tampa

A NOAA plane found that former Tropical Storm Eta had strengthened back into a hurricane on Wednesday morning. A Hurricane Watch was issued for a portion of the west coast of Florida that included Tampa and St. Petersburg. At 7:35 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Eta was located at latitude 25.8°N and longitude 83.8°W which put it about 170 miles (280 km) south-southwest of Tampa, Florida. Eta was moving toward the north-northeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown, Florida. The Hurricane Watch included Tampa and St. Petersburg. A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River, Florida. The Warning included Tampa and St. Petersburg. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from the Suwannee River to the Aucilla River, Florida.

Former Storm Eta strengthened back to a hurricane on Wednesday morning, but it appeared to be moving back into a pool of drier air over the Gulf of Mexico. Thunderstorms increased around the center of Eta when it was over the warm water in the Loop Current on Tuesday, but the thunderstorms were weakening on Wednesday morning. Thunderstorms near the center of Hurricane Eta were not as tall as they were on Tuesday. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands north and east of the center of Eta. Bands south and west of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) on the eastern side of Hurricane Eta. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles in the western half of the circulation.

Hurricane Eta will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification on Wednesday. Eta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C. An upper level trough over the central U.S. will produce southwesterly winds which blow toward the top of Eta’s circulation on Wednesday. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear, but the shear may not be strong enough to prevent Eta from getting stronger. The drier air over the Gulf of Mexico will limit intensification. Hurricane Eta is not likely to intensify much more on Wednesday because of the drier air. The upper level trough will move closer to Eta on Thursday and the wind shear will increase. The shear and drier air will cause Eta to weaken after it makes landfall on the west coast of Florida.

The upper level trough will steer Hurricane Eta toward the north-northeast during the next 24 to 36 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Eta could approach Tampa on Wednesday night. The center of Eta is forecast to pass just to the west of Tampa and make landfall north of Tampa. Eta could be near hurricane strength when it passes near Tampa. Southwesterly winds blowing around the east side of Tropical Storm Eta could push water into Tampa Bay. Eta could cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters). Hurricane Eta will also drop heavy rain over Central Florida. Floods could occur in that area. Eta could also cause widespread power outages in Central Florida.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Theta churned southwest of the Azores. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located at latitude 29.4°N and longitude 34.7°W which put it about 740 miles (1190 km) southwest of the Azores. Theta was moving toward the east-northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Tropical Storm Eta Turns Back Toward Florida

Tropical Storm Eta tuned back toward Florida on Tuesday evening. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located at latitude 23.8°N and longitude 84.5°W which put it about 120 miles (195 km) west-northwest of the Dry Tortugas. Eta was moving toward the north- northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River, Florida. The Warning included Tampa and St. Petersburg. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from the Suwannee River to the Aucilla River, Florida.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Eta exhibited more organization on Tuesday evening. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the the eastern and northern side of the the center of circulation. There were occasional indications that an eye could be forming at the center of Eta. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Eta. There were more thunderstorms in the bands in the northeastern half of Eta. Bands in the southwestern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Eta will move through an environment more favorable for intensification on Wednesday. Eta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. An upper level trough over the central U.S. will produce southwesterly winds which blow toward the top of Eta’s circulation on Wednesday. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent Eta from getting stronger. Tropical Storm Eta could strengthen back into a hurricane on Wednesday. The upper level trough will move closer to Eta on Thursday and the wind shear will increase. The shear could get strong enough to cause Eta to weaken.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Storm Eta toward the north-northeast during the next 24 to 48 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Eta will pass west of the Florida Keys on Wednesday. The center of Tropical Storm Eta could approach Tampa on Thursday morning. Eta could be near hurricane strength when it passes near Tampa. Southwesterly winds blowing around the east side of Tropical Storm Eta could push water into Tampa Bay. Eta could cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters).

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Subtropical Storm Theta nade a transition to a strong tropical storm. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located at latitude 29.4°N and longitude 35.5°W which put it about 770 miles (1235 km) southwest of the Azores. Theta was moving toward the east-northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Tropical Storm Eta Reorganizes Near Western Cuba

Tropical Storm Eta reorganized near western Cuba on Monday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located at latitude 23.2°N and longitude 85.2°W which put it about 90 miles (145 km) north-northwest of the western tip of Cuba. Eta was moving toward the southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Eta exhibited more organization on Monday night. Thunderstorms redeveloped around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Thunderstorms also increased in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Eta. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) on the northern side of Eta. Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 50 miles in the southern half of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Eta will move through an environment more favorable for intensification on Tuesday. Eta will move over the Loop Current which transports warm water from the Caribbean Sea into the southeast Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Eta will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. An upper level low centered over Cuba will produce northerly winds which blow toward the top of Eta’s circulation on Tuesday. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear, but the shear will slowly decrease. Tropical Storm Eta will intensify on Tuesday and it could strengthen back into a hurricane.

The upper low over Cuba has been steering Tropical Storm Eta toward the southwest, but the steering winds are likely to weaken on Tuesday. Eta could stall northwest of Cuba. An upper level trough over the Rocky Mountains will move east during the next several days. The southern end of the trough could start to pull Eta toward the north on Wednesday.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, an extratropical cyclone southwest of the Azores made a transition to Subtropical Storm Theta. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located at latitude 28.8°N and longitude 40.3°W which put it about 995 miles (1600 km) southwest of the Azores. Theta was moving toward the east at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Storm Eta Drops Heavy Rain on South Florida

Tropical Storm Eta dropped heavy rain on parts of South Florida on Sunday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located at latitude 24.6°N and longitude 80.5°W which put it about 40 miles (65 km) east of Marathon, Florida. Eta was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Brevard/Volusia County Line to Englewood, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Andros Island, the Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island and New Providence. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Englewood to Anna Maria Island, Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Eta weakened when it moved across Cuba on Sunday morning. Drier air wrapping around the southern side of an upper level low over the northwestern Caribbean Sea was pulled into the core of Tropical Storm Eta and the thunderstorms near the core weakened. Even though the inner core of Eta was weaker, the tropical storm still had a well developed low level circulation. Stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands north and east of the center of Tropical Storm Eta. Bands south and west of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The asymmetric distribution of thunderstorms and the lack of thunderstorms in the core of Tropical Storm Eta was also affecting the wind pattern. Low pressure at the center of Eta and a strong high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean generated a strong pressure gradient northeast of the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 300 miles (485 km) to the northeast of the center of Tropical Storm Eta. Several stations along the southeast coast of Florida were reporting winds to tropical storm force. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 mile (240 km) northwest and southeast of the center of Eta. Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 40 miles (65 km) in the southwestern quadrant of Eta.

Tropical Storm Eta will move through an environment more favorable for intensification during the next several days. Eta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. The upper level low over the northwestern Caribbean Sea will produce easterly winds which blow toward the top of Eta’s circulation on Monday. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear, but the shear will slowly decrease. Tropical Storm Eta could move over the Loop Current when it moves west of the Florida Keys. The Sea Surface Temperature of the water in the Loop Current is near 29°C. Eta is likely to strengthen to a hurricane when it moves over the Loop Current.

Counterclockwise rotation around the upper low over the northwestern Caribbean Sea will steer Tropical Storm Eta toward the west during the next 12 hours. Eta will move more toward the southwest on Monday night. Eta could stall for a period on Tuesday. An upper level trough over the western U.S. will move toward the Gulf of Mexico. The upper level trough will start to pull Eta toward the north later in the week. Eta could move toward the west coast of Florida on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Eta will move across the Lower Florida Keys during the next 12 hours. Eta will produce gusty winds over Keys on Monday. Those winds could cause a storm surge of up to 4 feet (1.3 meters). Bands revolving around the northern side of Tropical Storm Eta will continue to drop heavy rain over parts of South Florida. Urban flooding will occur in some locations and Flash Flood Watches are in effect for South Florida.

Tropical Storm Eta Strengthens, Hurricane Watch for Florida

Tropical Storm Eta strengthened a little more Saturday evening and A Hurricane Watch was issued for parts of South Florida and the Florida Keys. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located at latitude 20.7°N and longitude 79.9°W which put it about 140 miles (220 km) west-southwest of Camaguey, Cuba. Eta was moving toward the northeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Deerfield Beach to Bonita Beach, Florida and for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Brevard/Volusia County Line to Englewood, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Cayman Islands and the Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos and Matanzas. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Andros Island, the Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island and New Providence. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Englewood to Anna Maria Island, Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa y Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Eta continued to strengthen on Saturday evening. There were occasional infrared satellite images that suggested a small eye could be forming at the center of Eta. There was a ring of strong thunderstorms around the center and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms near the core of Eta generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm. The strongest rainbands were in the northern and eastern parts of the circulation around Tropical Storm Eta. Bands south and west of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The strongest winds were blowing in the northern half of Eta. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Eta will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the few hours. Eta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. An upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Eta. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The shear will inhibit intensification, but it may not be strong enough to prevent Eta from getting stronger. Tropical Storm Eta is likely to weaken when it crosses Cuba on Saturday night. The Sea Surface Temperature of the water north of Cuba is near 29°C. So, Eta is likely to strengthen after it crosses Cuba. Eta could strengthen to a hurricane when it approaches the Florida Keys.

The upper level trough will make a transition to a cutoff low over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico which will be the primary feature steering Eta. Counterclockwise rotation around the cutoff low will pull Eta toward the northeast on Saturday night . On its anticipated track Eta could move across Cuba west of Camaguey on Saturday night. Tropical Storm Eta will drop heavy rain when it moves across Cuba and flash floods could occur. The upper low will steer Eta toward the northwest on Sunday. Eta will approach the Florida Keys on Sunday night. It could be a hurricane at that time. Eta will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Florida Keys and South Florida. A high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean will interact with the circulation around the northern side of Eta to produce strong easterly winds which will blow toward the coast of Southeast Florida. Those winds will push water toward the coast and the water level could rise up to six feet (2 meters). The strong winds could also cause widespread power outages in South Florida.

Eta Strengthens Back to Tropical Storm, Warnings Issued for Florida

Former Tropical Depression Eta strengthened back to a tropical storm on Saturday morning and Tropical Storm Warnings for parts of South Florida and the Florida Keys. At 1:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located at latitude 20.0°N and longitude 80.1°W which put it about 50 miles (80 km) north of Grand Cayman Island. Eta was moving toward the northeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from Golden Beack to Chokoloskee, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Cayman Islands and the Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos and Matanzas. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Andros Island, the Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island and New Providence. Tropical Storm Watches were issued for the portion of the coast from Chokoloskee to Englewood, Florida and from JGolden Beach to the Brevard/Volusia County Line. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa y Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth.

Observations from a U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane and from Grand Cayman Island indicated that the center of former Tropical Depression Eta reformed in a cluster of thunderstorms near Grand Cayman. The reconnaissance plane was still sampling the circulation around Tropical Storm Eta but the available date suggested that it was much better organized. The inner end of a rainband was wrapping around the eastern and northern part of the center of circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Eta. Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm. The removal of mass was allowing the surface pressure to decrease and Tropical Storm Eta was intensifying more quickly. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Eta.

Tropical Storm Eta will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 18 hours. Eta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will initially be under an upper level ridge where the winds are weaker. There will be less vertical wind shear under the ridge. Eta could intensify rapidly during the next 12 hours and it could strengthen to a hurricane. Eta is likely to weaken when it crosses Cuba on Saturday night . The Sea Surface Temperature of the water north of Cuba is near 29°C. So, Eta is likely to strengthen after it crosses Cuba. Eta could strengthen to a hurricane when it approaches South Florida. An upper level low over the western Gulf of Mexico will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Eta on Sunday. Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear, which could limit further intensification of Eta. The wind shear caused by the upper low could eventually cause Eta to develop a structure more like a subtropical cyclone.

An upper low over the western Gulf of Mexico will be the primary feature steering Eta. Counterclockwise rotation around the cutoff low will pull Eta more toward the northeast on Saturday. On its anticipated track Eta could move across Cuba on Saturday night and it could drop heavy rain when it does so. The upper low will steer Eta toward the northwest on Sunday. Eta will approach South Florida and the Florida Keys on Sunday night. It could be a hurricane at that time. Eta will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Florida Keys and South Florida. A high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean will interact with the circulation around the northern side of Eta to produce strong easterly winds which will blow toward the coast of Southeast Florida. Those winds will push water toward the coast and the water level could rise up to six feet (2 meters).

Tropical Depression Eta Prompts Watches for South Florida, Keys and Northwest Bahamas

Expected intensification of Tropical Depression Eta prompted the issuance of Tropical Storm Watches for parts of South Florida, the Florida Keys and the Northwestern Bahamas. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Eta was located at latitude 18.0°N and longitude 85.2°W which put it about 275 miles (445 km) west-southwest of Gran Cayman Island. Eta was moving toward the northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Cayman Islands and the Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos and Matanzas. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the coast of South Florida from Jupiter Inlet to Bonita Beach. It included Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa y Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Andros Island, the Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island and New Providence.

The structure of the circulation around Tropical Depression Eta exhibited a little more organization on satellite imagery on Friday evening. More thunderstorms developed near the center of Eta. There were also more thunderstorms in bands in the eastern half of the circulation. Bands in the western half of Eta contained more showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Eta generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the northeast of the depression. Removal of mass could allow the surface pressure to decrease on Saturday.

Tropical Depression Eta will move through an environment favorable for intensification on Saturday. Eta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will initially be under an upper level ridge where the winds are weaker. There will be less vertical wind shear under the ridge and Eta is likely to strengthen back to a tropical storm on Saturday. A upper level low over the western Gulf of Mexico will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Eta on Sunday. Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear, which could limit further intensification of Eta. Eta is also likely to weaken when it crosses Cuba on Sunday. The Sea Surface Temperature of the water north of Cuba is near 29°C. So, Eta is likely to strengthen after it crosses Cuba. Eta could strengthen to a hurricane when it approaches South Florida. The wind shear caused by the upper low could eventually cause Eta to develop a structure more like a subtropical cyclone.

The upper low over the western Gulf of Mexico will be the primary feature steering Eta. Counterclockwise rotation around the cutoff low will pull Eta more toward the northeast on Saturday. Eta could pass near the Cayman Islands on Saturday. Eta is likely to move across Cuba on Sunday morning and it could drop heavy rain when it does so. The upper low will steer Eta toward the northwest on Sunday. Eta will approach South Florida and the Florida Keys on Sunday night. It could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Keys and South Florida. A high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean will interact with the circulation around the northern side of Eta to produce strong easterly winds which will blow toward the coast of Southeast Florida. Those winds will push water toward the coast and the water level will rise several feet.