Tropical Storm Nesat Develops near Northern Luzon

Tropical Storm Nesat developed over the Western North Pacific Ocean near northern Luzon on Saturday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Nesat was located at latitude 18.6°N and longitude 123.5°E which put it about 160 miles (260 km) east of Claveria, Philippines. Nesat was moving toward the west at 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean near northern Luzon strengthened on Saturday morning and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Nesat. The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Nesat was asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Nesat’s circulation. Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Nesat consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Nesat generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) in the northern side of Nesat’s circulation. The winds in the southern half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Nesat will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Nesat will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Storm Nesat is likely to strengthen during the next 36 hours. Nesat could intensify to a typhoon by the end of the weekend.

Tropical Storm Nesat will move around the southern side of a surface high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Nesat toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Nesat will pass near northern Luzon during the next 24 hours. Nesat will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to northern Luzon. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Storm Nesat will move over the South China Sea on Sunday.

Tropical Depression Karl Drops Heavy Rain on Southern Mexico

Tropical Depression Karl dropped heavy rain over parts of southern Mexico on Saturday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Karl was located at latitude 18.6°N and longitude 93.0°W which put it about 95 miles (150 km) east-northeast of Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. Karl was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

The center of Tropical Depression Karl made landfall on the coast of Mexico between Coatzacoalcos and Ciudad del Carmen on Saturday morning. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern part of Karl’s circulation. Those thunderstorms were dropping heavy rain over western Tabasco and southeastern Veracruz. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. The circulation in the lower levels of Tropical Depression Karl will continue to weaken as it moves farther inland, but thunderstorms will continue to drop heavy rain over the region during the next few hours.

Tropical Storm Karl Moves South Toward Mexico

Tropical Storm Karl moved south toward Mexico on Thursday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located at latitude 20.9°N and longitude 93.5°W which put it about 195 miles (315 km) north-northeast of Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. Karl was moving toward the south-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Alvarado to Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico.

Even though the surface pressure at the center of Tropical Storm Karl decreased by two millibars on Thursday, the maximum sustained wind speed also decreased. The circulation around Karl pulled some drier air into the western part of the tropical storm. In addition, an upper level trough over the eastern U.S. produced west-northwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Karl’s circulation. Those winds caused moderate vertical wind shear. The drier air and the wind shear caused the strongest thunderstorms to occur in bands in the southern and eastern parts of Tropical Storm Karl. Bands in the northern and western parts of Karl consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Karl’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Karl will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Karl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. The upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will continue to produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Karl. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. Moderate vertical wind shear and drier air in the western side of Karl’s circulation will inhibit intensification. The intensity of Tropical Storm Karl could fluctuate during the next 24 hours, but Karl is likely to remain a tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Karl will move around the southern part of a surface high pressure system that extends from the north central U.S. over the Gulf of Mexico. The high pressure system will push Karl toward the south during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Karl will make landfall on the coast of Mexico between Coatzacoalcos and Paraiso on Friday night. Karl will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the coastal parts of Tabasco and Veracruz when it makes landfall. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Karl Strengthens over Southwest Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Storm Karl strengthened over the southwest Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday afternoon. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located at latitude 22.0°N and longitude 94.5°W which put it about 220 miles (355 km) north-northeast of Veracruz, Mexico. Karl was moving toward the north at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Tuxpan to Frontera, Mexico.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance plane found that Tropical Storm Karl was stronger on Wednesday afternoon. Even though Tropical Storm Karl was stronger, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in eastern half of Karl’s circulation. Bands in the western half of Karl consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Karl’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Karl will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Karl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the southern Gulf of Mexico. The western part of the ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Karl’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Karl has been moving slowly. The winds near the surface are mixing cooler water to the surface of the Gulf Of Mexico. Tropical Storm Karl could strengthen during the next 18 hours, unless too much cooler water mixes to the surface. The upper level winds are forecast to get stronger later on Thursday. More vertical wind shear is likely to cause Karl to weaken.

Tropical Storm Karl will move around the western part of a high pressure system that extends over the Gulf of Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Karl toward the north during the next 12 hours. The high pressure system is forecast to strengthen on Thursday. When the high pressure system strengthens, it will push Karl back toward the south. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Karl will move back toward the coast of Mexico on Friday.

Tropical Storm Karl Forms over Southwest Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Storm Karl formed over the Southwest Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located at latitude 19.6°N and longitude 94.4°W which put it about 120 miles (195 km) east-northeast of Veracruz, Mexico. Karl was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Cabo Rojo to Puerto Veracruz, Mexico.

A portion of the northern side of the circulation around former Hurricane Julia moved over the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Satellite images indicated that a distinct circulation developed over the Bay of Campeche. After an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane found sustained winds to tropical storm force, the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Karl. The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the coast.

Thunderstorms developed in the inner end of a band that wrapped around the northeastern part of the center of Tropical Storm Karl. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Karl’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Karl will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Karl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the center of an upper level ridge over the southern Gulf of Mexico. The upper level winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Karl is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours. Karl will move closer to the western side of the upper level ridge in a day or so. Southwesterly winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase when Tropical Storm Karl moves under the western part of the upper level ridge.

Tropical Storm Karl will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that extends over the Gulf of Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Karl toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Karl will move toward the east coast of Mexico. The high pressure system could push Karl toward the southwest on Thursday.

Tropical Storm Julia Crosses Nicaragua to the Eastern North Pacific

Former Hurricane Julia moved across Nicaragua to the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Sunday. Julia weakened to a tropical storm as it was moving across Nicaragua. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Julia was located at latitude 12.8°N and longitude 88.1°W which put it about 95 miles (155 km) southeast of San Salvador, El Salvador. Julia was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Sandino, Nicaragua to the border with Honduras. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Pacific coast of Honduras and the entire coast of El Salvador. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Pacific coast of Guatemala.

Former Hurricane Julia weakened to a tropical storm as it moved across Nicaragua on Sunday. The center of Tropical Storm Julia emerged over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Nicaragua late on Sunday afternoon. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in a band that wrapped around the southern and eastern sides of the center of Julia’s circulation. Bands in other parts of Tropical Storm Julia consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. About half of Julia’s circulation was still over land. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Julia will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Julia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over Central America. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, nearly half of the circulation of Tropical Storm Julia will still be over land. More friction will affect the part of the circulation over land, and that will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Julia could strengthen a little during the next 24 hours, if the center of circulation moves farther out over the Eastern North Pacific.

Tropical Storm Julia will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Julia toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours, On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Julia will move near the coast of El Salvador on Monday. Julia will bring gusty winds to the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras and El Salvador. Tropical Storm Julia could continue to drop heavy rain over parts of northern Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Hurricane Julia Hits Nicaragua

Hurricane Julia hit the coast of Nicaragua early on Sunday. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Julia was located at latitude 12.4°N and longitude 84.6°W which put it about 60 miles (95 km) west-northwest of Bluefields, Nicaragua. Julia was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bluefields to Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua to the border with Honduras. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portion of the coast from Bluefields, Nicaragua to the border with Costa Rica and from Puerto Cabezas to the border with Honduras. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Pacific coast of Nicaragua, the Pacific coast of Honduras and the entire coast of El Salvador. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Patuca, Honduras to the border with Nicaragua. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Pacific coast of Guatemala.

Hurricane Julia made landfall on the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua north of Bluefields early on Sunday. Julia strengthened before it made landfall. A circular eye with a diameter of 40 miles (65 km) was at the center of Hurricane Julia at landfall. The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km) at the time of landfall. Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Julia’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Julia will move south of a high pressure system over the Caribbean Sea. The high pressure system will steer Julia toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Julia will move across Nicaragua on Sunday. Julia will weaken as it moves across Nicaragua, but it will continue to bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain. Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations. Hurricane Julia will also bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to southern Honduras, southwestern Guatemala and to El Salvador. The center of Julia could move over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Sunday night. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras and El Salvador. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Pacific coast of Guatemala.

Julia Strengthens to a Hurricane East of Nicaragua

Former Tropical Storm Julia strengthened to a hurricane over the Southwest Caribbean Sea east of Nicaragua on Saturday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Julia was located at latitude 12.5°N and longitude 82.7°W which put it about 80 miles (130 km) east-northeast of Bluefields, Nicaragua. Julia was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bluefields to Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua to the border with Honduras. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portion of the coast from Bluefields, Nicaragua to the border with Costa Rica and from Puerto Cabezas to the border with Honduras. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Pacific coast of Nicaragua, the Pacific coast of Honduras and the entire coast of El Salvador. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Patuca, Honduras to the border with Nicaragua.

A circular eye with a diameter of 40 miles (65 km) formed at the center of Hurricane Julia on Saturday night. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Julia. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Julia’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Julia will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Julia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Julia could intensify during the next few hours. Julia will being to weaken when it makes landfall in Nicaragua.

Hurricane Julia will move south of a high pressure system over the Caribbean Sea. The high pressure system will steer Julia toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Julia will make landfall on the east coast of Nicaragua in a few hours. Julia will bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Nicaragua on Sunday. Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations. Julia could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the east coast of Nicaragua. Hurricane Julia will also bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to southern Honduras and to El Salvador.

Tropical Storm Julia Strengthens over Southwest Caribbean

Tropical Storm Julia strengthened over the Southwest Caribbean Sea on Saturday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Julia was located at latitude 12.8°N and longitude 79.0°W which put it about 165 miles (2705 km) east-southeast of Isla de Providencia, Colombia. Julia was moving toward the west at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bluefields to Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua to the border with Honduras. Tropical Storm Warning were in effect for the portion of the coast from Bluefields, Nicaragua to the border with Costa Rica and from Puerto Cabezas to the border with Honduras. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Patuca, Honduras to the border with Nicaragua.

Tropical Storm Julia strengthened over the Southwest Caribbean Sea east of Nicaragua on Saturday morning. More thunderstorms developed near the center of Julia’s circulation and in bands revolving around the center. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Julia will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Julia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Julia will intensify during the next 36 hours. Julia is likely to strengthen to a hurricane during the the next 12 hours. Tropical Storm Julia could intensify rapidly after an inner core with an eye and an eyewall form.

Tropical Storm Julia will move south of a high pressure system over the Caribbean Sea. The high pressure system will steer Julia toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Julia will reach San Andres, Providencia and the Santa Catalina Islands by Saturday evening. It could be a hurricane by that time. Julia could reach the coast of Nicaragua early on Sunday. Julia will bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain. Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations. Julia could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters).

Tropical Storm Julia Develops North of Colombia

Tropical Storm Julia developed over the Caribbean Sea just north of Colombia on Friday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Julia was located at latitude 12.7°N and longitude 73.1°W which put it about 110 miles (175 km) west of the northern tip of the Guajira Peninsula, Colombia. Julia was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bluefields, Nicaragua to the border with Honduras. A Tropical Storm Warning for the portion of the coast from Riohacha, Colombia eastward to the border with Venezuela. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Patuca, Honduras to the border with Nicaragua.

Former Tropical Depression Thirteen strengthened on Friday morning after the center of circulation moved over the Caribbean Sea north of Colombia and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the weather system to Tropical Storm Julia. Almost half of the circulation of Tropical Storm Julia was still over northern Colombia. More thunderstorms formed in the northern side of Julia which was over the Caribbean Sea. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern and western sides of the center of Tropical Storm Julia. Storms near the center of Julia generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the Tropical Storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles in the northern side of Julia’s circulation. The winds in the southern half of Julia were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Julia will move into an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Julia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Julia will intensify during the next 36 hours. Julia is likely to strengthen to a hurricane during the weekend. Tropical Storm Julia could intensify rapidly after an inner core with an eye and an eyewall form.

Tropical Storm Julia will move south of a high pressure system over the Caribbean Sea. The high pressure system will steer Julia toward the west during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Julia will move over the southwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday. Julia could reach San Andres, Providencia and the Santa Catalina Islands by Saturday evening. It could be a hurricane by that time. Julia could reach the coast of Nicaragua on Sunday morning. Julia will bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain. Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.