Tag Archives: Okinawa

Tropical Storm Chan-hom Moving Away From the Marianas

Tropical Storm Chan-hom continued to move farther west of the Mariana Islands on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Chan-hom was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 142.0°E which put it about 1170 miles (1890 km) southeast of Okinawa.  Chan-hom was moving toward the north-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Chan-hom became a little better organized on Sunday.  A primary band of thunderstorms wrapped around the southern half of the circulation.  There also appears to be some drier air wrapping into the circulation as well.  The upper level winds have decreased and some upper level divergence appears to be developing.  Chan-hom is over water there the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  With the exception of the drier air the environment is favorable for intensification Chan-hom is expected to become a typhoon.

A subtropical ridge is steering Chan-hom in a generally northwesterly direction and that steering pattern is expected to continue for the next few days.  On its anticipated track Chan-hom could approach Okinawa in three or four days.

Typhoon Noul Expected to Head Toward Okinawa

Typhoon Noul is expected to pass east of Taiwan and move toward Okinawa on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Noul was located at latitude 21.2°N and longitude 122.4°E which put it about 260 miles south-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan, about 240 miles south-southwest of Ishigaki and about 550 miles southwest of Naha, Okinawa.  Noul was moving toward the north at 11 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 150 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.

Noul will be moving over increasingly cooler Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) as it moves northeastward on Monday.  In addition, it will move into an area where stronger westerly winds are blowing in the upper levels of the atmosphere.  Cooler SSTs and increasing vertical wind shear will cause Noul to weaken steadily.  However, it could still be a typhoon when it passes near Okinawa.

Noul is moving around the western end of the subtropical ridge that has been steering it.  As it moves farther to the north, it will be steered by the mid-latitude westerly winds and Noul will accelerate toward the northeast.  Noul is like to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone when it passes south of Japan.

Typhoon Noul Equivalent of Category 5 Hurricane

Typhoon Noul moved into an area with very little vertical wind shear and intensified into the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday Typhoon Noul was located at latitude 17.4°N and longitude 123.1°E which put it about 130 miles east of Tuguegarao and about 85 miles southeast of Escarpada Point on the northeastern tip of Luzon.  Noul was moving toward the north-northwest at 12 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 195 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 918 mb.

Noul is at the western end of the subtropical ridge that has been steering it toward the northwest.  It should gradually turn more toward the north on Sunday.  The anticipated track will take the center of Noul very close to the northeastern tip of Luzon in a few hours.  As it moves northward, it will start to be affected by westerly winds in a day or so.  Those winds will turn it more toward the northeast and it could affect some of the southern islands of Japan early next week.

As Noul moves toward the north it will move over cooler Sea Surface Temperatures  (SSTs).  In addition the upper level westerly winds will create more vertical wind shear over Noul.  The combination of cooler SSTs and more vertical wind shear will cause Noul to weaken throughout the next few days.  However, if could still be a typhoon when it passes by Okinawa in about 48 hours.

Noul could bring strong winds and heavy rain to the northeastern tip of Luzon on Sunday.  Mudslides could be a possibility in locations that receive heavy rain.

 

Vongfong Intensifies Rapidly, Now a Super Typhoon

Typhoon Vongfong has been in an environment of warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and light upper level winds, which is almost ideal for intensification of a tropical cyclone.  As  result it has intensified very rapidly and it has reached the intensity necessary to be classified as a Super Typhoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT the center of Typhoon Vongfong was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 133.2°E which put it about 700 miles southeast of Okinawa.  Vongfong was moving toward the west-northwest at 11 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 175 m.p.h., which made it the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, and there were gusts to 215 m.p.h.  Vongfong is both stronger and larger than Typhoon Phanfone was.

Vongfong is being steered west-northwest by a subtropical high pressure system.  An upper level trough in the westerly flow at higher latitudes will approach Vongfong from the west.  Southerly winds on the east side of the trough will cause Vongfong to make a sharp turn toward the north during the next 24-36 hours.  It appears that Vongfong will continue to move northward during the rest of the week and it could approach southwestern Japan in five or six days.

Vongfong will remain in a very favorable environment for the next 24-48 hours and some further intensification is possible.  Eventually, the winds in the upper level trough will increase the wind shear over Vongfong.  At the same time Vongfong will be moving over cooler SSTs as it gets farther north.  So, a weakening trend could begin in about 48 hours.  However, Vongfong could still be a large typhoon as it approaches Japan.