Tag Archives: AL16

Tropical Depression 16 Strengthens to Tropical Storm Peter

Former Tropical Depression Sixteen strengthened to Tropical Storm Peter on Sunday morning. At 9:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Peter was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 56.0°W which put it about 470 miles (755 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands. Peter was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Infrared satellite images and satellite derived scatterometer estimates of surface winds indicated that former Tropical Depression Sixteen had strengthened on Sunday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Peter. Early morning visible satellite images revealed that strong vertical wind shear was affecting Tropical Storm Peter. An upper level trough north-northeast of Puerto Rico and an upper level ridge east of the Leeward Islands were interacting to produce strong southwesterly winds that were blowing across Peter’s circulation. The low level center of circulation was clearly visible on those images and it was surrounded by showers and lower clouds. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the eastern and northern periphery of the circulation around Tropical Storm Peter. Bands in the western and southern parts of Peter consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Storm Peter will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Peter will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. However, the upper level trough and the upper level ridge will continue to produce strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Peter could strengthen a little during the next 24 hours. The upper level winds are forecast to get stronger on Monday. Increased vertical wind shear could cause Peter to weaken back to a tropical depression.

Tropical Storm Peter will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the depression toward the west-northwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Peter could be northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands by Monday morning.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Depression Seventeen formed southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Seventeen was located at latitude 11.8°N and longitude 28.21°W which put it about 330 miles (530 km) southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. The tropical depression was moving toward the north-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were’ wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb. The tropical depression is forecast to move away from the Cabo Verde Islands and to strengthen to a tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Nana Moves Over Guatemala

Tropical Storm Nana moved over Guatemala on Thursday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Nana was located at latitude 16.3°N and longitude 90.6°W which put it about 120 miles (195 km) north of Guatemala City, Guatemala.  Nana was moving toward the west t 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

After making landfall in southern Belize as a hurricane on Wednesday night, Tropical Storm Nana moved westward over northern Guatemala.  The small circulation around Nana weakened steadily on Thursday.  Tropical Storm Nana was dropping locally heavy rain over Guatemala on Thursday afternoon.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Nana will weaken to a tropical depression within a few hours.  Nana will continue to move toward the west.  It could emerge over the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Friday.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Depression Omar moved away from Bermuda.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Omar was located at latitude 35.9°N and longitude 61.1°W which put it about 335 miles (540 km) northeast of Bermuda.  Omar was moving toward the east at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Nana Strengthens to a Hurricane Near Belize

Former Tropical Storm Nana strengthened into a hurricane as it neared a landfall in Belize.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Nana was located at latitude 17.0°N and longitude 87.5°W which put it about 60 miles (95 km) southeast of Belize City, Belize.  Nana was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Belize City to the Belize/Guatemala border.  A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Belize City to the Belize/Mexico border.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Belize City to Belize/Mexico border.  A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala, Isla Roatan and the Bay Islands.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the north coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the border with Guatemala.

Former Tropical Storm Nana moved into a more favorable environment on Wednesday night and strengthened to a hurricane.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of circulation and those thunderstorms helped to spin up the circulation.  Since the circulation around Hurricane Nana was relatively small, it was able to spin up into a hurricane in a few hours.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) on the northern side of Nana.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Nana has a few more hours when it could strengthen before it makes landfall in southern Belize.  Nana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be less vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Nana could get a little stronger.

Hurricane Nana will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Nana a little to the south of due west.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Nana will make landfall on the coast of Belize south of Belize City early on Wednesday morning.  Nana will be capable of causing localized wind damage.  It could cause a storm surge of up to eight feet (2.6 meters) along the south coast of Belize.  Hurricane Nana will drop heavy rain over parts of southern Belize and northern Guatemala.  Flash floods could occur in some locations.

Elsewhere over the North Atlantic Ocean, former Tropical Storm Omar weakened to a tropical depression north of Bermuda.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Omar was located at latitude 36.1°N and longitude 64.1°W which put it about 265 miles (425 km) north of Bermuda.  Omar was moving toward the east at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Nana Strengthens, Hurricane Watch Issued for Belize

Tropical Storm Nana strengthened on Tuesday night and a Hurricane Watch was issued for Belize.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Nana was located at latitude 17.0°N and longitude 80.9°W which put it about 485 miles (775 km) east of Belize City, Belize.  Nana was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was issued for the entire coast of Belize.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for Belize.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala and for the north coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the border with Guatemala including Roatan Island and the Bay Islands.

Tropical Storm Nana continued to strengthen on Tuesday night.  There were signs that a small eye might be starting to form in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of circulation.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Nana will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Nana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29.5°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Nana is likely to intensify into a hurricane on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Nana will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Nana toward the west during the next 24 to 36 hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Nana will pass north of Honduras.  Nana could approach Belize on Wednesday night.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Omar continued to move away from North Carolina.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Omar was located at latitude 35.8°N and longitude 70.0°W which put it about 310 miles (500 km) east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Omar was moving toward the east-northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Storm Nana Forms South of Jamaica

Tropical Storm Nana formed over the Caribbean Sea south of Jamaica on Tuesday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Nana was located at latitude 16.7°N and longitude 78.4°W which put it about 110 miles (175 km) south of Negril, Jamaica.  Nana was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the entire coast of Belize.  A Tropical Storm Watch was also issued for the north coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the border with Guatemala including Roatan Island and the Bay Islands.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight into a low pressure system south of Jamaica found a defined low level center of circulation and winds to tropical storm force on Tuesday.  Based on data from the reconnaissance aircraft the National Hurricane Center designated the system Tropical Storm Nana.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Nana was organizing quickly.  Thunderstorms were developing near the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center.  Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.  The strongest winds were occurring in the northern half of the circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Nana.

Tropical Storm Nana will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours.  Nana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29.5°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Nana will continue to intensify and it is likely to strengthen to a hurricane within 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Nana will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Nana toward the west during the next day or two.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Nana will pass north of Honduras on Wednesday.  Nana could reach Belize on Thursday and it is likely to be a hurricane by that time.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Depression Fifteen moved away from the East Coast of the U.S.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen was located at latitude 34.7°N and longitude 73.1°W which put it about 140 miles (225 km) east-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  The depression was moving toward the east-northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Tropical Storm Nestor Causes Severe Weather in Florida

Tropical Storm Nestor caused severe weather in Florida.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Nestor was located at latitude 29.7°N and longitude 85.1°W which put it about 5 miles (10 km) west of Apalachicola, Florida.  Nestor was moving toward the east-northeast at 23 m.p.h. (38 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Ochlockonee River to Suwanee River, Florida.

Tropical Storm Nestor began a transition to an extratropical cyclone as it approached the coast of Florida.  Strong westerly winds in the middle latitudes created significant vertical wind shear.  In addition, the circulation around Nestor pulled cooler, drier air into the western and southern parts of the tropical storm.  The effects of the upper level westerly winds and cooler, drier air caused the strongest rising motion to occur in bands well to the east of the center of circulation.  The strongest thunderstorms occurred in bands southeast of the low level center.

The vertical wind shear was strong enough that rotation developed in some of the thunderstorms over the Florida Peninsula.  Several tornado warnings were issued on Friday night because radar indicated likely rotation.  There were reports of property damage due to possible tornadoes in Cape Coral in Lee County, near Winston in Polk County, in Plant City in Hillsborough County and in Seminole in Pinellas County.

The center of Tropical Storm Nestor officially made landfall on St. Vincent Island west of Apalachicola on Saturday afternoon.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms had moved east of Florida by Saturday afternoon.  There were still bands of showers and thunderstorms moving over the Florida Peninsula.  Flow diverging from a surface high pressure system centered over the northeastern U.S. was converging with the flow around the northern part of Tropical Storm Nestor.  The convergence was generating a large area of rising motion.  Showers and thunderstorms were occurring over northern Florida, southeastern Alabama, southern Georgia and parts of South Carolina.

Tropical Storm Nestor will move toward the northeast as an extratropical cyclone during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the center of Nestor will move across southern Georgia and near the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina.  The low pressure system will continue to drop rain over those areas.  There has been below normal rainfall over the southeastern U.S. in recent weeks.  So, the rain is unlikely to cause flooding in most places.

Tropical Storm Nestor Speeds Toward Northwest Florida

Tropical Storm Nestor sped toward northwest Florida on Friday afternoon.  The National Hurricane Center designated a strong low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico as Tropical Storm Nestor on Friday afternoon.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Nestor was located at latitude 26.3°N and longitude 89.5°W which put it about 355 miles (570 km) southwest of Panama City, Florida.  Nestor was moving toward the northeast at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Grand Isle, Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River, Mississippi and from the Mississippi/Alabama border to Yankeetown, Florida.  A Storm Surge Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to Clearwater Beach, Florida.

Tropical Storm Nestor exhibited an asymmetrical structure that is commonly seen in late season tropical storms over the Gulf of Mexico.  The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Nestor.  Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The tropical storm force winds were occurring in the eastern half of Tropical Storm Nestor.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) in the eastern side of the circulation.  The winds in the western half of Nestor were mostly less than tropical storm force.

Drier air was being pulled around the western side of Tropical Storm Nestor.  In addition, an upper level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico was producing southwesterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The combination of the drier air and the vertical wind shear was responsible for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms and strong winds in the eastern half of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Nestor will move through an environment only marginally favorable for further intensification during the next 12 hours.  Nestor will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  So, there is plenty of energy in the upper part of the Gulf of Mexico to support intensification.  However, the drier air and wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Nestor will start a transition to an extratropical cyclone on Saturday.  Nestor could strengthen somewhat during the extratropical transition, but it could be over land before that occurs.

The upper level trough over the Western Gulf of Mexico will steer Nestor quickly toward the northeast during the next 48 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Nestor could make landfall on the coast of northwest Florida between Panama City and Apalachicola.  Nestor will bring gusty winds to northern Florida on Saturday.  Strong southerly winds on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Nestor will push water toward the coast and a storm surge of 3 to 6 feet (1 to 2 meters) will occur around the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.  Nestor could drop locally heavy rain over parts of northern Florida, southeast Alabama, southern Georgia and South Carolina.  Tropical Storm Nestor will make landfall near where Hurricane Michael did so much damage in 2018.  Recovery efforts have been slow in that area and Nestor could set back the ongoing recovery from Hurricane Michael.

Oscar Strengthens Into a Hurricane Southeast of Bermuda

One time subtropical storm and former Tropical Storm Oscar strengthened into a hurricane southeast of Bermuda on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Oscar was located at latitude 25.7°N and longitude 55.5°W which put it about 725 miles (1165 km) southeast of Bermuda.  Oscar was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

A small eye formed at the center of former Tropical Storm Oscar and the National Hurricane Center upgraded Oscar to a hurricane.  A thin ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several short bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Oscar.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Oscar is relatively small.  Winds to hurricane force extend out only about 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 115 miles (185 km) from the center.

Hurricane Oscar will move through an environment favorable for intensification for another day or two.  Oscar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Because of its relatively small circulation, Hurricane Oscar could intensify rapidly while it is in a favorable environment.  Oscar will get stronger during the next 36 to 48 hours and some models are forecasting that it will become a major hurricane.  An upper level trough moving off the East Coast of the U.S. will produce southwesterly winds which will cause the vertical wind shear to increase by Wednesday.

Hurricane Oscar will move around the western end of a ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic Ocean on Monday and Tuesday.  The ridge will steer Oscar toward the west for another 12 to 24 hours.  Hurricane Oscar will move more toward the north when it reaches the western end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Oscar will pass east of Bermuda on Tuesday.  The upper level trough will steer Oscar rapidly toward the northeast on Wednesday.

Oscar Transitions to a Tropical Storm

Former Subtropical Storm Oscar transitioned to a tropical storm on Saturday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located at latitude 25.7°N and longitude 51.4°W which put it about 930 miles (1495 km) east-southeast of Bermuda.  Oscar was moving toward the west-southwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

The structure of the circulation of former Subtropical Storm Oscar changed to a shape more like a tropical cyclone and the National Hurricane Center reclassified Oscar as a tropical storm.  A band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped more tightly around the eastern side of the center of circulation.  The strongest winds were occurring about 30 miles (50 km) from the center.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were starting to form in the eastern half of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Oscar will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours.  Oscar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  An upper level low southeast of Oscar will produce northerly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical storm.  However, the core of Tropical Storm Oscar will remain south of the strongest upper level winds on Sunday.  Tropical Storm Oscar could intensify into a hurricane by Monday.

The upper level low is steering Tropical Storm Oscar quickly toward the west-southwest.  That motion is forecast to continue for anther 24 hours.  A large upper level trough over the eastern U.S.  will produce southwesterly winds which will start to turn Oscar toward the northeast in about 36 to 48 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Oscar could be southeast of Bermuda on Monday night.

Subtropical Storm Oscar Develops East of Bermuda

Subtropical Storm Oscar developed east of Bermuda on Friday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Subtropical Storm Oscar was located at latitude 26.7°N and longitude 45.7°W which put it about 1210 miles (1940 km) east-southeast of Bermuda.  Oscar was moving toward the north-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gust to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface temperature was 1005 mb.

More thunderstorms developed closer to the center of a low pressure system east-southeast of Bermuda on Friday night and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Subtropical Storm Oscar.  The strongest winds were occurring in a band of showers and thunderstorms about 80 to 100 miles (130 to 160 km) east of the center of the low pressure system.  Several other bands were forming southeast of the center of circulation.  Bands in other parts of Subtropical Storm Oscar consisted primarily of showers and low clouds.

Subtropical Storm Oscar will move through an area somewhat favorable for intensification.  Oscar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  An upper level low will move just to the south of Subtropical Storm Oscar.  The upper level low will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the subtropical storm.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear which will inhibit intensification on Saturday.  In a day or so Oscar will move northwest of the upper level low and the vertical wind shear will decrease.

The upper level low will steer Subtropical Storm Oscar toward the north-northwest on Saturday.  When Oscar moves farther way from the upper level low, it will move south of a ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic Ocean.  The ridge will steer Subtropical Storm Oscar toward the west on Sunday and into early next week.  On its anticipated track Subtropical Storm Oscar could be southeast of Bermuda by Monday night.