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Typhoon Halong Passes South of Tokyo

Typhoon Halong passed south of Tokyo on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Halong was located at latitude 32.8°N and longitude 140.3°E which put the center about 195 miles (315 km) south of Tokyo, Japan.  Halong was moving toward the northeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 946 mb.

Typhoon Halong was starting to weaken as it passed south of Tokyo on Wednesday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was still present at the center of Halong’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Typhoon Halong.  Storms near the center of Halong generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the typhoon.  The removal of mass was less than the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure was increasing.

The circulation around Typhoon Halong increased in size on Wednesday.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Halong’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Typhoon Halong.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Halong was 23.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 37.5.  Typhoon Halong was similar in intensity to Hurricane Dennis when Dennis hit Northwest Florida in 2005.  Halong is bigger than Dennis was.

Typhoon Halong will move through an environment that will become more unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Halong will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the southern extent of the upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes.  The upper level westerly winds will blow toward the top of Halong’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Cooler Sea Surface Temperatures and more vertical wind shear will cause Typhoon Halong to weaken during the next 24 hours.  Halong is likely to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next few days.

The upper level westerly winds will steer Typhoon Halong quickly toward the east during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Halong will move away from Japan on Thursday.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Nakri former southwest of Iwo To.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Nakri was located at latitude 22.3°N and longitude 136.0°E which put the center about 625 miles (1010 km) south-southeast of Okinawa.  Nakri was moving toward the northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Typhoon Halong Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Typhoon Halong intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the Western North Pacific Ocean south of Japan on Tuesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Halong was located at latitude 28.4°N and longitude 137.2°E which put the center about 490 miles (785 km) south-southwest of Tokyo, Japan.  Halong was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 942 mb.

Typhoon Halong intensified to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Tuesday morning.  A circular eye with a diameter of 40 miles (65 km) was at the center of Halong’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Halong.  Storms near the core of Halong generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon in all directions.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Typhoon Halong was relatively small.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Halong’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Typhoon Halong.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Halong was 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 35.3.  Typhoon Halong was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.

Typhoon Halong will move through an environment that is favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Halong will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is south of Japan.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the upper level ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Halong will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Halong will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Halong toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Halong will move closer to Honshu.

Halong Strengthens to a Typhoon

Former Tropical Storm Halong strengthened to a typhoon west of the Ogasawara Islands south of Japan on Sunday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Halong was located at latitude 25.9°N and longitude 140.5°E which put the center about 665 miles (1075 km) south of Tokyo, Japan.  Halong was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Halong strengthened to a typhoon on Sunday night.  A small circular eye formed at the center of Halong’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the eastern side of Typhoon Halong.  Bands in the western side of Halong’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Halong generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds in Typhoon Halong was relatively symmetrical.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Halong’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Typhoon Halong.

Typhoon Halong will move through an environment that is mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Halong will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is south of Japan.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the upper level ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, Halong will move into a region of drier air.  The drier air will inhibit the formation of thunderstorms in the western part of Halong’s circulation.  Typhoon Halong is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours if the drier air does not get pulled into the core of Halong.

Typhoon Halong will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Halong toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Halong will move a little closer to Japan.

Elsewhere, the center of Tropical Storm Matmo moved over northeastern Vietnam.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Matmo was located at latitude 22.4°N and longitude 106.2°E which put the center about 25 miles (40 km) east of Na Phac, Vietnam.  Matmo was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Bualoi Strengthens to Typhoon over South China Sea

Former Tropical Storm Bualoi strengthened to a typhoon as it moved over the South China Sea on Friday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Bualoi was located at latitude 15.1°N and longitude 114.2°E which put the center about 400 miles (645 km) east of Da Nang Vietnam.  Bualoi was moving toward the west-northwest at 28 m.p.h. (45 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Bualoi strengthened to a typhoon on Friday evening.  Even though Bualoi strengthened to a typhoon, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern and southern parts of Typhoon Bualoi.  Bands in the western and northern parts of Bualoi consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Bualoi generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and west of the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Typhoon Bualoi was relatively small.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Bualoi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Typhoon Bualoi.

Typhoon Bualoi will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bualoi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over China.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bualoi’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the moderate shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Typhoon Bualoi could intensify during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Bualoi will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over China.  The high pressure system will steer Bualoi toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Bualoi will move toward the coast of northern Vietnam.  Bualoi could reach the coast in 36 hours.

Typhoon Bualoi will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of northern Vietnam.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some location.  Bualoi could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along portions of the coast.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Neoguri was still meandering far to the east of Japan.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Neoguri was located at latitude 31.8°N and longitude 156.3°E which put the center about 925 miles (1490 km) east of Tokyo, Japan.  Neoguri was moving toward the east at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Tropical Storm Bualoi Brings Wind and Rain to Central Philippines

Tropical Storm Bualoi brought wind and rain to the central Philippines on Thursday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Bualoi was located at latitude 12.4°N and longitude 124.6°E which put the center about 5 miles (10 km) west of Catarman, Philippines.  Bualoi was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Storm Bualoi brought wind and rain to the central Philippines on Thursday.  The strongest winds and heaviest rain were occurring in Samar.  Bualoi was also bringing wind and rain to southeastern Luzon and Masbate.

Tropical Storm Bualoi strengthened as it approached the central Philippines.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Bualoi’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Bualoi.  Storms near the center of Bualoi generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Bualoi became more symmetrical on Thursday.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Bualoi’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Bualoi will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bualoi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bualoi’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Even though Tropical Storm Bualoi will move through a somewhat favorable environment, the center of Bualoi will be over land at times as it moves across the central Philippines.  The times when the center of Tropical Storm Bualoi is over land will also inhibit intensification.

Tropical Storm Bualoi will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bualoi toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Bualoi will move across the Sibuyan Sea.  Bualoi will move over the South China Sea during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Bualoi will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the central Philippines.  The strongest winds and heaviest rain will occur in southern Luzon, Masbate, Sibuyan Island, Tablas Island, Burias Island, Marinduque, and Mindoro.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Bualoi could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the coasts where the wind blows the water toward the shore.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Neoguri continued to meander far to the east of Japan.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Neoguri was located at latitude 32.0°N and longitude 154.1°E which put the center about 855 miles (1380 km) east of Tokyo, Japan.  Neoguri was moving toward the west-southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Typhoon Ragasa Makes Landfall in Southern China

Typhoon Ragasa made landfall on the coast of southern China east of Yangjiang on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Ragasa was located at latitude 21.9°N and longitude 110.5°E which put the center about 30 miles (50 km) northeast of Yangjiang, China.  Ragasa was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 96 mb.

The center of Typhoon Ragasa made landfall on the coast of southern China east of Yangjiang on Wednesday morning.  Ragasa was a large and powerful typhoon at the time of landfall.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Ragasa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 190 miles (305 km) from the center of Typhoon Ragasa.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Ragasa was 13.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 20.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.7.

Typhoon Ragasa will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over China.  The high pressure system will steer Ragasa toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Ragasa will move westward near the coast of southern China.  Ragasa will move over northern Vietnam on Thursday.

Typhoon Ragasa will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Guangxi, western Guangdong, and northern Hainan.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Typhoon Ragasa could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along portions of the coast.  Ragasa could also drop heavy rain on parts of northern Vietnam and northern Laos.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Bualoi was strengthening east of the Philippines and Tropical Storm Neoguri was spinning far to the east of Japan.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Bualoi was located at latitude 10.6°N and longitude 130.5°E which put the center about 375 miles (605 km) east-southeast of Tacloban, Philippines.  Bualoi was moving toward the west-northwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Neoguri was located at latitude 31.2°N and longitude 156.8°E which put the center about 1060 miles (1710 km) east-southeast of Tokyo, Japan.  Neoguri was moving toward the east-northeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Typhoon Ragasa Brings Wind and Rain to Hong Kong

Typhoon Ragasa brought wind and rain to Hong Kong on Tuesday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Ragasa was located at latitude 21.3°N and longitude 113.2°E which put the center about 80 miles (130 km) south-southwest of Hong Kong.  Ragasa was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.

The center of Typhoon Ragasa passed south of Hong Kong on Tuesday night.  A weather station at the airport in Hong Kong (VHHH) reported a sustained wind speed of 47 kt (54 m.p.h. or 87 km/h) and a wind gust of 66 kt (76 m.p.h. or 122 km/h).

The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the existing eye and eyewall in Typhoon Ragasa as it was passing south of Hong Kong.  A second outer eyewall appeared to be developing.  The formation of concentric eyewalls could start another eyewall replacement cycle.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Ragasa.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.

The circulation around Typhoon Ragasa was large.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Ragasa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 190 miles (305 km) from the center of Typhoon Ragasa.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Ragasa is 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 20.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 45.9.  Typhoon Ragasa is similar in intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.  Ragasa is larger than Harvey was.

Typhoon Ragasa will move through an environment that will be favorable for a powerful typhoon during the next few hours.  Ragasa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Even though Typhoon Ragasa will move through a favorable environment, another eyewall replacement cycle would cause Ragasa to weaken.

Typhoon Ragasa will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over China.  The high pressure system will steer Ragasa toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Ragasa will make landfall on the coast of southern China west of Macau in 12 hours.

Typhoon Ragasa will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Guangxi and to western Guangdong.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Typhoon Ragasa could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along portions of the coast.  Ragasa could also drop heavy rain over northern parts of Vietnam and Laos.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Bualoi formed east of the Philippines and former Typhoon Neoguri weakened to a tropical storm far to the east of Japan.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Bualoi was located at latitude 9.5°N and longitude 133.4°E which put the center about 535 miles (865 km) east of Surigao, Philippines.  Bualoi was moving toward the west-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Neoguri was located at latitude 30.6°N and longitude 154.6°E which put the center about 910 miles (1465 km) east-southeast of Tokyo, Japan.  Neoguri was moving toward the east at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Typhoon Ragasa Moves over South China Sea

Typhoon Ragasa moved over the South China Sea on Monday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Ragasa was located at latitude 20.2°N and longitude 117.7°E which put the center about 300 miles (485 km) east-southeast of Hong Kong.  Ragasa was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 930 mb.

Typhoon Ragasa went through an eyewall replacement cycle, but the eyewall replacement only weakened Ragasa slightly.  A new eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) was at the center of Ragasa’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Typhoon Ragasa.  Storms near the center of Ragasa generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away in all directions from the typhoon.  The removal of large quantities of mass in the upper levels was slightly less than the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The inflow of mass in the lower levels caused the surface pressure to increase slowly.

The circulation around Typhoon Ragasa was large.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Ragasa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 240 miles (390 km) from the center of Typhoon Ragasa.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Ragasa was 29.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 28.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 58.6.  Typhoon Ragasa was larger and stronger than Hurricane Helene was when Helene hit Florida in 2024.

Typhoon Ragasa will move through an environment that will be favorable for a powerful typhoon during the next 24 hours.  Ragasa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over China.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ragasa’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Typhoon Ragasa could weaken slowly during the next 24 hours because of more vertical wind shear.

Typhoon Ragasa will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over China.  The high pressure system will steer Ragasa toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Ragasa will be just south of Hong Kong in less than 24 hours.

Typhoon Ragasa will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to coastal regions in southern China including Hong Kong.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Typhoon Ragasa could also cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along parts of the coast.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Typhoon Neoguri moved farther east of Japan.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Neoguri was located at latitude 30.6°N and longitude 153.3°E which put the center about 910 miles (1470 km) east of Tokyo, Japan.  Neoguri was moving toward the east-northeast at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

Typhoon Ragasa Hammers Babuyan Islands

Typhoon Ragasa hammered the Babuyan Islands just north of Luzon on Sunday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Mounday the center of Typhoon Ragasa was located at latitude 19.4°N and longitude 121.1°E which put the center about 50 miles (80 km) north of Claveria, Philippines.  Ragasa was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 916 mb.

Typhoon Ragasa was the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale when it hit the Babuyan Islands just north of Luzon on Sunday night.  The eye at the center of Ragasa’s circulation passed over Babuyan Island.  Typhoon Ragasa brought potentially catastrophic winds and heavy rain to the island.  Ragasa could also have caused a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters) along the coast of the island.

Typhoon Ragasa was still the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on Monday morning.  A circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) was at the center of Ragasa’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Typhoon Ragasa.  Storms near the center of Ragasa generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away in all directions from the typhoon.  The removal of large quantities of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The balance of inflow and outflow of mass caused the surface pressure to remain nearly constant.

The circulation around Typhoon Ragasa was large.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Ragasa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400km) from the center of Typhoon Ragasa.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Ragasa was 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 28.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 63.4.  Typhoon Ragasa was similar in intensity to Hurricane Maria when Maria hit Puerto Rico in 2017.  Ragasa was bigger than Maria was.

Typhoon Ragasa will move through an environment very favorable for a powerful typhoon during the next 24 hours.  Ragasa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Ragasa could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours unless an eyewall replacement cycle occurs.

Typhoon Ragasa will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Ragasa toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Ragasa will be south of Hong Kong in 48 hours.

Typhoon Ragasa will continue to produce very strong winds and heavy rain in the Batanes Islands and to the Babuyan Island until it moves farther to the west of those islands.   Typhoon Ragasa is likely to cause catastrophic damage on those islands.  Typhoon Ragasa will also continue to cause strong winds and heavy rain in northern Luzon.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Typhoon Neoguri weakened slightly far to the east of Japan.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Neoguri was located at latitude 30.3°N and longitude 152.0°E which put the center about 825 miles (1330 km) east of Tokyo, Japan.  Neoguri was moving toward the northeast at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 950 mb.

Typhoon Ragasa Intensifies to Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane

Typhoon Ragasa intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Saturday night east of northern Luzon.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Ragasa was located at latitude 18.5°N and longitude 125.8°E which put the center about 280 miles (455 km) east of Aparri, Philippines.  Ragasa was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 922 mb.

Typhoon Ragasa intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on Saturday night.  A small circular eye was at the center of Ragasa’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Typhoon Ragasa.  Storms near the center of Ragasa generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away in all directions from the typhoon.  The removal of large quantities of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Typhoon Ragasa was large.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Ragasa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 215 miles (345 km) from the center of Typhoon Ragasa.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Ragasa was 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 20.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 55.6.  Typhoon Ragasa was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Maria when Maria hit Puerto Rico in 2017.

Typhoon Ragasa will move through an environment very favorable for a powerful typhoon during the next 24 hours.  Ragasa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Ragasa could continue to intensify during the next 24 hours unless an eyewall replacement cycle occurs.

Typhoon Ragasa will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Ragasa toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Ragasa will be north of Luzon in 24 hours.

Typhoon Ragasa will bring very strong winds and heavy rain to the Batanes Islands and to the Babuyan Islands.  Ragasa could cause a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters).  Typhoon Ragasa could cause catastrophic damage on those islands.  Typhoon Ragasa will also cause strong winds and heavy rain in northern Luzon.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, powerful Typhoon Neoguri continued to spin far to the southeast of Japan.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Neoguri was located at latitude 28.0°N and longitude 151.6°E which put the center about 880 miles (1420 km) east-southeast of Tokyo, Japan.  Neoguri was moving toward the northwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 936 mb.