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Typhoon Ragasa Hammers Babuyan Islands

Typhoon Ragasa hammered the Babuyan Islands just north of Luzon on Sunday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Mounday the center of Typhoon Ragasa was located at latitude 19.4°N and longitude 121.1°E which put the center about 50 miles (80 km) north of Claveria, Philippines.  Ragasa was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 916 mb.

Typhoon Ragasa was the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale when it hit the Babuyan Islands just north of Luzon on Sunday night.  The eye at the center of Ragasa’s circulation passed over Babuyan Island.  Typhoon Ragasa brought potentially catastrophic winds and heavy rain to the island.  Ragasa could also have caused a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters) along the coast of the island.

Typhoon Ragasa was still the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on Monday morning.  A circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) was at the center of Ragasa’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Typhoon Ragasa.  Storms near the center of Ragasa generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away in all directions from the typhoon.  The removal of large quantities of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The balance of inflow and outflow of mass caused the surface pressure to remain nearly constant.

The circulation around Typhoon Ragasa was large.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Ragasa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400km) from the center of Typhoon Ragasa.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Ragasa was 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 28.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 63.4.  Typhoon Ragasa was similar in intensity to Hurricane Maria when Maria hit Puerto Rico in 2017.  Ragasa was bigger than Maria was.

Typhoon Ragasa will move through an environment very favorable for a powerful typhoon during the next 24 hours.  Ragasa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Ragasa could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours unless an eyewall replacement cycle occurs.

Typhoon Ragasa will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Ragasa toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Ragasa will be south of Hong Kong in 48 hours.

Typhoon Ragasa will continue to produce very strong winds and heavy rain in the Batanes Islands and to the Babuyan Island until it moves farther to the west of those islands.   Typhoon Ragasa is likely to cause catastrophic damage on those islands.  Typhoon Ragasa will also continue to cause strong winds and heavy rain in northern Luzon.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Typhoon Neoguri weakened slightly far to the east of Japan.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Neoguri was located at latitude 30.3°N and longitude 152.0°E which put the center about 825 miles (1330 km) east of Tokyo, Japan.  Neoguri was moving toward the northeast at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 950 mb.

Typhoon Ragasa Intensifies to Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane

Typhoon Ragasa intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Saturday night east of northern Luzon.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Ragasa was located at latitude 18.5°N and longitude 125.8°E which put the center about 280 miles (455 km) east of Aparri, Philippines.  Ragasa was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 922 mb.

Typhoon Ragasa intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on Saturday night.  A small circular eye was at the center of Ragasa’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Typhoon Ragasa.  Storms near the center of Ragasa generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away in all directions from the typhoon.  The removal of large quantities of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Typhoon Ragasa was large.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Ragasa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 215 miles (345 km) from the center of Typhoon Ragasa.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Ragasa was 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 20.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 55.6.  Typhoon Ragasa was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Maria when Maria hit Puerto Rico in 2017.

Typhoon Ragasa will move through an environment very favorable for a powerful typhoon during the next 24 hours.  Ragasa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Ragasa could continue to intensify during the next 24 hours unless an eyewall replacement cycle occurs.

Typhoon Ragasa will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Ragasa toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Ragasa will be north of Luzon in 24 hours.

Typhoon Ragasa will bring very strong winds and heavy rain to the Batanes Islands and to the Babuyan Islands.  Ragasa could cause a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters).  Typhoon Ragasa could cause catastrophic damage on those islands.  Typhoon Ragasa will also cause strong winds and heavy rain in northern Luzon.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, powerful Typhoon Neoguri continued to spin far to the southeast of Japan.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Neoguri was located at latitude 28.0°N and longitude 151.6°E which put the center about 880 miles (1420 km) east-southeast of Tokyo, Japan.  Neoguri was moving toward the northwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 936 mb.

Typhoon Ragasa Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Typhoon Ragasa rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane east of northern Luzon on Saturday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Ragasa was located at latitude 17.4°N and longitude 128.4°E which put the center about 475 miles (765 km) east of Aparri, Philippines.  Ragasa was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 957 mb.

Typhoon Ragasa rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane east of northern Luzon on Saturday.  A small circular eye was present at the center of Ragasa’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Typhoon Ragasa.  Storms near the center of Ragasa generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away in all directions from the typhoon.  The removal of large quantities of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Typhoon Ragasa was large.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Ragasa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 275 miles (445 km) in the southern half of Typhoon Ragasa.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 165 miles (265 km) in the northern side of Ragasa’s circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Ragasa was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 20.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 40.9.  Typhoon Ragasa was similar in intensity to Hurricane Rita when Rita hit southwest Louisiana in 2005.  Ragasa was not as large as Rita was.

Typhoon Ragasa will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ragasa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Ragasa will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Ragasa could continue to intensify rapidly.  Typhoon Ragasa could strengthen to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Typhoon Ragasa will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Ragasa toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Ragasa will be north of Luzon in 48 hours.

Typhoon Ragasa will bring very strong winds and heavy rain to the Batanes Islands and to the Babuyan Islands.  Ragasa could cause a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters.  Typhoon Ragasa could cause catastrophic damage on those islands.  Typhoon Ragasa will also cause strong winds and heavy rain in northern Luzon.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Typhoon Neoguri continued to strengthen southeast of Japan.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Neoguri was located at latitude 26.5°N and longitude 154.5°E which put the center about 1100 miles (1775 km) east-southeast of Tokyo, Japan.  Neoguri was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

Ragasa Strengthens to Typhoon East of Luzon

Former Tropical Storm Ragasa strengthened to a typhoon over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of northern Luzon on Friday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Ragasa was located at latitude 16.52°N and longitude 129.3°E which put the center about 530 miles (855 km) east of Aparri, Philippines.  Ragasa was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Ragasa strengthened to a typhoon east of northern Luzon on Friday night.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Ragasa’s circulation.  A small circular eye formed at the center of Typhoon Ragasa.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Typhoon Ragasa.  Storms near the center of Ragasa generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Typhoon Ragasa was large.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Ragasa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (325 km) from the center of Typhoon Ragasa.

Typhoon Ragasa will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ragasa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Ragasa will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Ragasa could intensify rapidly at times.  Typhoon Ragasa is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the weekend.

Typhoon Ragasa will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Ragasa toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Ragasa will move closer to northern Luzon.  The center of Typhoon Ragasa will be near northern Luzon in 48 hours.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, former Tropical Storm Neoguri strengthened to a typhoon southeast of Japan.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Neoguri was located at latitude 25.7°N and longitude 156.4°E which put the center about 1210 miles (1950 km) east-southeast of Tokyo, Japan.  Neoguri was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Tropical Storm Mitag Brings Wind and Rain to Southeastern China

Tropical Storm Mitag brought wind and rain to southeastern China on Friday morning.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Mitag was located at latitude 23.0°N and longitude 115.1°E which put the center about 85 miles (135 km) east-northeast of Hong Kong.  Mitag was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The center of Tropical Storm Mitag made landfall on the coast of southeastern China east of Hong Kong on Thursday night.  Mitag was bringing wind and rain to parts of Guangdong.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Mitag was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Mitag’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Mitag will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over China.  The high pressure system will steer Mitag toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Mitag will move inland over Guangdong.  The center of Mitag’s circulation will pass north of Hong Kong.

Tropical Storm Mitag will weaken gradually as it moves over southern China.  Mitag will continue to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Guangdong during the next 24 hours.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Ragasa moved slowly toward northern Luzon and Tropical Storm Neoguri strengthened southeast of Japan.

At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Ragasa was located at latitude 16.2°N and longitude 130.5°E which put the center about 620 miles (1000 km) east of Aparri, Philippines.  Ragasa was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Neoguri was located at latitude 24.3°N and longitude 159.8°E which put the center about 1450 miles (2340 km) east-southeast of Tokyo, Japan.  Neoguri was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Storm Mitag Develops Southeast of Hong Kong

Tropical Storm Mitag developed over the South China Sea southeast of Hong Kong on Thursday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Mitag was located at latitude 20.4°N and longitude 116.5°E which put the center about 225 miles (365 km) southeast of Hong Kong.  Mitag was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A low pressure system over the South China Sea southeast of Hong Kong strengthened on Thursday morning and the Japan Meteorological Agency  designated the system as Tropical Storm Mitag.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Mitag continued to get better organized on Thursday morning.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Mitag’s circulation.  Thunderstorms also developed in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Mitag.  Bands in the western side of Mitag’s circulation still consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The strongest winds were occurring in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Mitag.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the eastern side of Mitag’s circulation.  The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Mitag were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Mitag will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Mitag will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over eastern China and the South China Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Mitag will intensity during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Mitag will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Mitag toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Mitag will be near Hong Kong in 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Mitag will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the region around Hong Kong.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Ragasa formed east of Luzon and Tropical Storm Neoguri formed southeast of Japan.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Ragasa was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 132.7°E which put the center about 755 miles (1220 km) east of Aparri, Philippines.  Ragasa was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Neoguri was located at latitude 23.1°N and longitude 162.5°E which put the center about 1630 miles (2630 km) east-southeast of Tokyo, Japan.  Neoguri was moving toward the west-southwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Storm Peipah Brings Wind and Rain to Japan

Tropical Storm Peipah brought wind and rain to parts of Japan on Thursday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Peipah was located at latitude 32.8°N and longitude 132.8°E which put the center about 60 miles (95 km) southwest of Kochi, Japan.  Peipah was moving toward the northeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Peipah exhibited more organization on Thursday.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Peipah’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the eastern and northern parts of Tropical Storm Peipah.  Bands in the western and southern parts of Peipah’s circulation still consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Peipah generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.

In spite of the improved organization the distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Peipah continued to be asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) in the southeastern quadrant of Peipah’s circulation.  The winds in the other parts of Tropical Storm Peipah were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Peipah will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Peipah will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level trough that is northwest of Japan.  The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Peipah’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  The center of Peipah will pass over southern Shikoku during the next few hours.  Tropical Storm Peipah could intensify a little during the next 24 hours when the center of circulation is over water.

The upper level trough that is northwest of Japan will steer Tropical Storm Peipah toward the east-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Peipah’s circulation will move over southern Shikoku during the next few hours.  The center of Peipah will be south of Kyoto in 12 hours.  Tropical Storm Peipah could be near Tokyo in 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Peipah will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Shikoku and Honshu.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Bailu Forms South of Japan

Tropical Storm Bailu formed over the Western North Pacific Ocean south of Japan on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Bailu was located at latitude 33.9°N and longitude 142.6°E which put the center about 185 miles (295 km) south of Tokyo, Japan.  Bailu was moving toward the north-northeast at 29 m.p.h. (46 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A low pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean strengthened on Saturday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Bailu.

The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Bailu was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern part of Bailu’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the southwestern part of Tropical Storm Bailu.  Bands in the other parts of Bailu’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Bailu was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) in the southern half of Bailu’s circulation.  The winds in the northern side of Tropical Storm Bailu were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Bailu will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bailu will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough that is north of Japan.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bailu’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Bailu could intensify during the next 24 hours, if the vertical wind shear does not increase.

The upper level trough north of Japan will steer Tropical Storm Bailu quickly toward the east-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Bailu will move quickly away from Honshu on Sunday.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Krosa was moving rapidly away from Japan.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Krosa was located at latitude 40.2°N and longitude 152.2°E which put the center about 505 miles (820 km) east of Misawa, Japan.  Krosa was moving toward the east-northeast at 28 m.p.h. (45 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

Tropical Storm Krosa Passes East of Japan

Tropical Storm Krosa passed east of Japan on Friday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Krosa was located at latitude 36.8°N and longitude 143.4°E which put the center about 130 miles (210 km) east-northeast of Tokyo, Japan.  Krosa was moving toward the north-northeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

Tropical Storm Krosa passed east of Japan on Friday.  Even though Krosa was a tropical storm, there was a clear area at the center of its circulation.  The clear area was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms.  The strongest winds were occurring in that broken ring of storms.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Krosa. Bands in the western side of Krosa’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Krosa was more symmetrical on Friday.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Krosa’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Krosa will move through an environment unfavorable for the intensification of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Krosa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough that is north of Japan.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  Cooler Sea Surface Temperatures and moderate vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Krosa to start a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough north of Japan will steer Tropical Storm Krosa toward the east-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Krosa will move away from Japan.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression 13W formed south of Japan.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression 13W was located at latitude 28.1°N and longitude 137.5°E which put the center about 325 miles (520 km) west-northwest of Iwo To.  Tropical Depression 13W was moving toward the northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Storm Krosa Spins Southeast of Japan

Tropical Storm Krosa was still spinning over the Western North Pacific Ocean southeast of Japan on Thursday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Krosa was located at latitude 32.0°N and longitude 141.9°E which put the center about 290 miles (465 km) south-southeast of Tokyo, Japan.  Krosa was moving toward the north-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

The structure of Tropical Storm Krosa started to change on Thursday as it continued to spin over the Western North Pacific Ocean southeast of Japan.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern and northern sides of the center of Krosa’s circulation.  A large circular eye appeared to be forming at the center of Krosa, even through Krosa was just a tropical storm.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Krosa.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Krosa was relatively small for a tropical storm southeast of Japan.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) from the center of Krosa’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Krosa will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Krosa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level low that is southeast of Japan.  The upper level winds are weak near the center of the upper level low and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, the upper level low will inhibit upper level divergence.  In addition, Krosa’s circulation is surrounded by drier air.  Tropical Storm Krosa could intensify during the next 24 hours in spite of the effects of the upper level low and the drier air.

Tropical Storm Krosa will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Krosa toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Krosa could pass to the east of Tokyo on Friday.