Tropical Depression Two Forms East of Lesser Antilles

Tropical Depression Two formed over the Atlantic Ocean east of the Lesser Antilles on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Two located at latitude 9.1°N and longitude 41.9°W which put the center about 1225 miles (1970 km) east-southeast of Barbados.  The tropical depression was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A tropical wave, formerly designated as Invest 95L, exhibited more organization on Friday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Two.  Visible satellite images appeared to indicated that a distinct low level center of circulation was present in Tropical Depression Two.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the apparent center of circulation.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Two will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Depression Two is very likely to intensify to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.  It could strengthen to a hurricane during the weekend.

Tropical Depression Two will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Two will move toward the Lesser Antilles.

Tropical Depression Two could be a hurricane by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles.  Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches are likely to be issued for the Windward Islands either Friday night or Saturday morning.

 

Tropical Cyclone Likely to Form East of Lesser Antilles

A tropical cyclone is likely to form over the Atlantic Ocean east of the Lesser Antilles during the next few days.  The tropical cyclone is likely to develop from a tropical wave currently designated as Invest 95L.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of the tropical wave located at latitude 9.7°N and longitude 35.4°W which put the center about 1720 miles (2775 km) east of the Lesser Antilles.  The tropical wave was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

A tropical cyclone is likely to form east of the Lesser Antilles from a tropical wave currently designated as Invest 95L.  The structure of Invest 95L exhibited more organization on satellite imagery on Thursday afternoon.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were beginning to revolve around a possible center of circulation.  Storms in those bands began to generate upper level divergence that was pumping mass away from the tropical wave.

The tropical wave designated as Invest 95L will move through an environment favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.  The tropical wave will will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  Invest 95L will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The U.S. National Hurricane Center is indicating the probability is 80% that the tropical wave designated as Invest 95L develops into a tropical cyclone.

The tropical wave designated as Invest 95L will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical wave toward the west during the next several days.  On its anticipated track, Invest 95L could approach the Lesser Antilles by the end of the weekend.  Invest 95L could strengthen to a hurricane by the time it approaches the Lesser Antilles.

Elsewhere, a tropical wave designated as Invest 94L was over the Northwest Caribbean Sea.  The U.S. National Hurricane Center was indicating the probability was 30% that Invest 94L develops into a tropical cyclone.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of that tropical wave located at latitude 15.4°N and longitude 83.3°W which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) north of Cabo Gracias a Dios.  Invest 94L was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Fast Moving Tropical Wave Over Eastern Caribbean Sea

A fast moving tropical wave was over the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday afternoon.  The wave has been designated as Invest 94L.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of the tropical wave located at latitude 12.2°N and longitude 65.7°W which put the center about 170 miles (275 km) east of Bonaire.  The tropical wave was moving toward the west at 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

A tropical wave moving rapidly over the eastern Caribbean Sea was designated as Invest 94L on Tuesday afternoon.  The tropical wave did not have a well defined low level center of circulation.  There did appear to be an area of rotation in the middle troposphere that was associated with the tropical wave.  Lines of showers and thunderstorms were moving toward the west with the tropical wave.

The tropical wave designated as Invest 94L will move south of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical wave quickly toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Invest 94L will pass over Bonaire, Curacao and Aruba during the next 24 hours.  The tropical wave will bring thunderstorms and gusty winds to Bonaire, Curacao and Aruba.

The tropical wave designated as Invest 94L will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical wave will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  Invest 94L will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical wave.  Stronger easterly winds will blow in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The difference in wind speed between the upper and lower levels will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

Invest 94L will move into an area where the lower level winds will be weaker when it reaches the western Caribbean Sea later this week.  The vertical wind shear is likely to decrease when the tropical wave is over the western Caribbean Sea.  The tropical wave could develop into a tropical cyclone later this week.  The U.S. National Hurricane Center is indicating the probability is 20% that the tropical wave develops into a tropical cyclone when it reaches the western Caribbean Sea.

Low Pressure System Drops Heavy Rain Near Georgia Coast

A low pressure system designated as Invest 92L was dropping heavy rain near the coast of Georgia on Saturday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of the low pressure system was located at latitude 31.1°N and longitude 81.5°W which put the center about 5 miles (10 km) southeast of Brunswick, Georgia.  The low pressure system was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1015 mb.

A low pressure system designated as Invest 92L was dropping heavy rain near the coast of Georgia on Saturday morning.

The center of the low pressure system was near Brunswick, Georgia.  There was a well defined center of circulation evident on the U.S. National Weather Service radar at Jacksonville, Florida.  The center of circulation was moving slowly near the coast of Georgia.  The heaviest rain was falling in a ring that wrapped around the eastern side of the center of Invest 92L.  Other bands of rain were over the Atlantic Ocean.

The low pressure system is forecast to move slowly inland over eastern Georgia.  Heavy rain could fall over areas near the coast as Invest 92L moves inland.  Heavy rain could cause flooding in some locations.

Elsewhere, a large low pressure system formed over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico near the area where Tropical Storm Alberto formed.  The low pressure system has been designated as Invest 93L.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Invest 93L was located at latitude 21.0°N and longitude 95.7°W which put it about 125 miles (200 km) east-southeast of Tampico, Mexico.  The low pressure system was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Invest 93L will move through an environment somewhat favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Invest 93L will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level ridge that stretches from Baja California to the Great Lakes.  The ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of the low pressure system.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be strong enough to prevent Invest 93L from developing into a tropical cyclone.  The U.S. National Hurricane Center is indicating that the probability is 50% that Invest 93L develops into a tropical cyclone.

The low pressure system designated as Invest 93L will move around the southern side of a large high pressure system over the eastern U.S.  The high pressure system will steer Invest 93L toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Invest 93L will approach the coast of Mexico near Tampico on Sunday.

The low pressure system designated as Invest 93L will drop heavy rain over some of the same areas where Tropical Storm Alberto dropped heavy rain.  Invest 93L is very likely to cause major flash floods in parts of northern Mexico.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low pressure system designated as Invest 93L later today, if necessary.

Low Pressure System Approaches Southeast U.S.

A small low pressure system was approaching the Southeast U.S. on Friday morning.  The low pressure system was officially designated as Invest 92L by the U.S. National Hurricane Center.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of the low pressure system was located at latitude 30.4°N and longitude 79.5°W which put it about 135 miles (215 km) east of Jacksonville, Florida.  The low pressure system was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1014 mb.

The low pressure system approaching the Southeast U.S. was officially designated as Invest 92L, but it exhibited many of the characteristics of a tropical depression.  Thunderstorms were occurring near the center of the low pressure system.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the southern half of the circulation around Invest 92L.  Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds, although there were also a few thunderstorms.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southwest of the low pressure system.

The low pressure system approaching the Southeast U.S. will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level ridge that stretches from Texas to Maine.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of the low pressure system.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification.  The low pressure system could strengthen a little, if the upper level winds do not get stronger.

The low pressure system will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the western Atlantic Ocean and eastern U.S.  The high pressure system will steer Invest 92L toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the low pressure system will make landfall on the coast of Georgia later on Friday.

The low pressure system designated as Invest 92L will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of northeastern Florida and eastern Georgia.  It will also generate waves and rip currents along the coast.  The waves could cause some minor coastal erosion.

Tropical Storm Alberto Brings Wind and Rain to Northern Mexico

Tropical Storm Alberto brought wind and rain to northern Mexico on Thursday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Alberto was located at latitude 22.3°N and longitude 98.3°W which put it about 25 miles (40 km) west of Tampico, Mexico and about 255 miles (410 km) south of Brownsville, Texas.  Alberto was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Rio Grande River to Tecolutla, Mexico.  The Tropical Storm Warning included Tampico, Mexico.

The center of Tropical Storm Alberto made landfall on the coast of Mexico near Tampico on Thursday morning.  The strongest winds were occurring near the center of Alberto’s circulation.  The distribution of winds in Tropical Storm Alberto was still asymmetrical at the time of landfall.  The circulation around the northern side of Alberto’s circulation was interacting with the southern part of a strong high pressure system over the eastern U.S.  The interaction of the two pressure systems was causing a large area of tropical storm force winds in the northern side of Tropical Storm Alberto.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 275 miles (445 km) in the northern side of Alberto’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the southern half of Alberto.

Tropical Storm Alberto will move around the southern side of a strong high pressure system over the eastern U.S.  The high pressure system will steer Alberto toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Alberto will move steadily inland over northern Mexico.

Tropical Storm Alberto will weaken as it moves farther inland over northern Mexico.  Alberto will continue to produce gusty winds along the coast of Texas and northern Mexico during the next few hours.  Tropical Storm Alberto will also drop heavy rain on parts of northern Mexico and southern Texas.   Up to an additional 5 inches (125 mm) of rain could fall on parts of south Texas.  Flood Watches are in effect for parts of South Texas.  Up to an additional 16 inches (400 mm) of rain could fall on parts of northern Mexico where the winds blow the air up the slopes of mountains.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  The heaviest rain is likely to fall in Tamaulipas.

Tropical Storm Alberto Strengthens Near Mexico

Tropical Storm Alberto strengthened on Wednesday evening as it neared the coast of Mexico.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Alberto was located at latitude 21.5°N and longitude 95.9°W which put it about 135 miles (220 km) east-southeast of Tampico, Mexico and about 320 miles (510 km) south-southeast of Brownsville, Texas.  Alberto was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from San Luis Pass, Texas to Tecolutla, Mexico.  The Tropical Storm Warning included Port O’Connor, Corpus Christi and Brownsville, Texas.  The Tropical Storm Warning also included Tampico, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Alberto was getting stronger on Wednesday evening as it approached the coast of Mexico near Tampico.  Thunderstorms near the center of Alberto’s circulation rose higher into the atmosphere.  A band of thunderstorms wrapped around the southern and eastern side of the center of circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Alberto.  Storms near the center of Alberto generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of winds in Tropical Storm Alberto was still asymmetrical.  The circulation around the northern side of Alberto’s circulation was interacting with the southern part of a strong high pressure system over the eastern U.S.  The interaction of the two pressure systems was causing a large area of tropical storm force winds in the northern side of Tropical Storm Alberto.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 460 miles (740 km) in the northern side of Alberto’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the southern half of Alberto.

Tropical Storm Alberto will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Alberto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the the center of an upper level ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Alberto is likely to intensify during the next few hours until the center makes landfall on the coast of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Alberto will move around the southern side of a strong high pressure system over the eastern U.S.  The high pressure system will steer Alberto toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Alberto will make landfall on the coast of northern Mexico early on Thursday.  The center of Alberto will make landfall a little south of Tampico, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Alberto will produce gusty winds along the coast of Texas and northern Mexico.    Alberto will also drop heavy rain on parts of northern Mexico and southern Texas.  Up to 12 inches (300 mm) of rain could fall on parts of south Texas.  Flood Watches were in effect for parts of South Texas.  Up to 20 inches (500 mm) of rain could fall on parts of northern Mexico where the winds blow the air up the slopes of mountains.

Easterly winds blowing around the northern side of Tropical Storm Alberto will blow the water toward the coast of Texas and northern Mexico.  Alberto will cause a storm surge of up to six feet (two meters) where the winds blow the water toward the coast.  Tropical Storm Alberto caused flooding along parts of the coast of Texas and Louisiana on Wednesday.  There were reports of water over roads as far east as Grand Isle, Louisiana.

 

Tropical Storm Alberto Forms over Western Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Storm Alberto formed over the western Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Alberto was located at latitude 22.2°N and longitude 95.0°W which put it about 185 miles (300 km) east of Tampico, Mexico and about 295 miles (480 km) south-southeast of Brownsville, Texas.  Alberto was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).   The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from San Luis Pass, Texas to Tecolutla, Mexico.  The Tropical Storm Warning included Corpus Christi and Brownsville, Texas.  The Tropical Storm Warning also included Tampico, Mexico.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of a low pressure system previously designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone One on Wednesday morning.  A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft was able to locate a well defined low level center of circulation and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Alberto.

The structure of Tropical Storm Alberto was beginning to resemble a typical tropical storm.  Thunderstorms were forming near the center of Alberto’s circulation.  A band of thunderstorms wrapped around the southern and eastern side of Tropical Storm Alberto.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Alberto’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Alberto began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease.

Even though Tropical Storm Alberto was starting to look like a tropical storm, the distribution of winds was still asymmetrical.  The circulation around the northern side of Alberto’s circulation was interacting with the southern part of a strong high pressure system over the eastern U.S.  The interaction of the two pressure systems was causing the strongest winds to occur in the northern side of Tropical Storm Alberto.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 400 miles (645 km) north of the center of Alberto’s circulation.  An anemometer at Garden Banks 783 (KGBK) measured a sustained wind speed of 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and wind gusts of 50 m.p.h (80 km/h).  The anemometer is at a height of 58.2 meters above sea level.  The winds in the southern part of Alberto’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Alberto will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Alberto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the the center of an upper level ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Alberto will intensify during the next 12 hours.  Alberto could undergo a brief period of rapid intensification when it approaches the coast of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Alberto will move south of a strong high pressure system over the eastern U.S.  The high pressure system will steer Alberto toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Alberto will make landfall on the coast of northern Mexico on Wednesday night.  The center of Alberto will make landfall near Tampico, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Alberto will produce gusty winds along the coast of Texas and northern Mexico.   Alberto will also drop heavy rain on parts of northern Mexico and southern Texas.  Up to 12 inches (300 mm) of rain could fall on parts of south Texas.  Flood Watches were in effect for parts of South Central, Southeast and South Texas.  Up to 20 inches (500 mm) of rain could fall on parts of northern Mexico where the winds blow the air up the slopes of mountains.

Easterly winds blowing around the northern side of Tropical Storm Alberto will blow the water toward the coast of Texas and northern Mexico.  Alberto will cause a storm surge of up to six feet (two meters) where the winds blow the water toward the coast.  Tropical Storm Alberto was already causing some flooding along parts of the coast of Texas.  A tide station at San Luis Pass, Texas (LUIT2) was reporting a water level of 5.21 feet (1.59 meters).  That water level is associated with Major Flooding.  A tide station at Galveston Railroad Bridge (GRRT2)  was reporting a water level of 4.77 feet (1.45 meters).  That water level is associated with Major Flooding.

Tropical Storm Forming over Western Gulf of Mexico

A tropical storm is forming over the western Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday morning.  The low pressure system is currently designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone One.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone One was located at latitude 22.7°N and longitude 94.3°W which put it about 235 miles (380 km) east-southeast of La Pesca, Mexico and about 295 miles (475 km) southeast of Brownsville, Texas.  The low pressure system was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from San Luis Pass, Texas to Puerto de Altamira, Mexico. The Tropical Storm Warning includes Corpus Christi and Brownsville, Texas.

A low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico, currently designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone One, on Wednesday morning is beginning to develop a structure more like a tropical cyclone.  Thunderstorms are staring to develop near the center of the low pressure system.  A band of thunderstorms wraps around the southern and eastern side of Potential Tropical Cyclone One.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the middle of the low pressure system.

The distribution of winds around Potential Tropical Cyclone One is still asymmetrical.  The winds near the middle of the low pressure system are relatively weak.  The strongest winds are occurring in a band of thunderstorms about 400 miles (645 km) north of the middle of Potential Tropical Cyclone One.  Some of the winds in that band of storms are blowing at tropical storm force.  An anemometer at Garden Banks 783 (KGBK) is measuring a sustained wind speed of 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and wind gusts of 50 m.p.h (80 km/h).  The anemometer is at a height of 58.2 meters above sea level.  The winds in the rest of the low pressure system are blowing at less than tropical storm force.

The low pressure system will move through an environment favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the the center of an upper level ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Potential Tropical Cyclone One is forecast to develop into a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.  In order to be classified as a tropical cyclone, a distinct low level center of circulation will have to form.  Thunderstorms will have to develop and to persist near the low level center.  The strongest winds will need to occur near the low level center of circulation in order for Potential Tropical Cyclone One to be classified as a tropical storm.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move south of a strong high pressure system over the eastern U.S.  The strong high pressure system will block Potential Tropical Cyclone One and the high pressure system will prevent the low pressure system from moving toward the north.  The high pressure system will steer the low pressure system toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone One could approach the coast of northern Mexico and southern Texas on Wednesday evening.  The center of the low pressure system is likely to make landfall between Tampico and La Pesca, Mexico

Potential Tropical Cyclone One is likely to be a tropical storm when it approaches the coast.  The low pressure system will produce gusty winds along the coast of Texas and northern Mexico.  Potential Tropical Cyclone One will also drop heavy rain on parts of northern Mexico and southern Texas.  Up to 12 inches (300 mm) of rain could fall on parts of south Texas.  Flood Watches were in effect for parts of South Central, Southeast and South Texas.  Up to 20 inches (500 mm) of rain could fall on parts of northern Mexico where the winds blow the air up the slopes of mountains.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One will cause a storm surge of up to four feet (one meter) where the winds blow the water toward the coast.  The water is already causing some flooding along parts of the coast of Texas.

Tropical Storm Warnings Issued for South Texas and Northern Mexico

Tropical Storm Warnings were issued for the coast of south Texas and northern Mexico early on Tuesday. A low pressure system over the southern Gulf of Mexico was designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone One. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone One was located at latitude 21.5°N and longitude 92.8°W which put it about 355 miles (575 km) east-southeast of La Pesca, Mexico and about 420 miles (680 km) southeast of Brownsville, Texas. The low pressure system was moving toward the north at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Port O’Connor, Texas to Puerto de Altamira, Mexico. The Tropical Storm Warning included Corpus Christi and Brownsville, Texas.

A large low pressure system was over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday morning. The low pressure system did not exhibit the usual structural features of a tropical cyclone. So, the U.S. National Hurricane Center continued to designate the system as Potential Tropical Cyclone One.

The large low pressure system still did not have a well defined, distinct low level center of circulation. There were few thunderstorms in the broad region around the middle of the low pressure system. The surface winds were relatively weak near the middle of the low pressure system. The strongest winds were occurring in a band of thunderstorms about 285 miles (460 km) north of the middle of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Some winds in that area were blowing at tropical storm force. Elsewhere in the low pressure system, the winds were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

The low pressure system will move through an environment favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the the center of an upper level ridge centered near the Yucatan Peninsula. The upper level winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Potential Tropical Cyclone One could develop into a tropical storm during the next 24 hours. In order to be classified as a tropical cyclone, a distinct low level center of circulation would have to form. Thunderstorms would have to develop and to persist near the low level center. The strongest winds would need to occur near the low level center of circulation in order for Potential Tropical Cyclone One to be classified as a tropical storm.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move around the northern part of a large counterclockwise circulation called a Central American Gyre (CAG) during the next 12 hours. The Central American Gyre will steer the low pressure system toward the north-northwest on Tuesday. A strong high pressure system over the eastern U.S. will block Potential Tropical Cyclone One from moving toward the north on Wednesday. The high pressure system will turn the low pressure system toward the west-northwest. On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone One could approach the coast of northern Mexico or southern Texas on Wednesday evening.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One could be a tropical storm when it approaches the coast. That is the reason the Tropical Storm Warnings were issued. Even if Potential Tropical Cyclone One does not develop into a tropical storm, it will drop heavy rain on parts of northern Mexico and southern Texas. The low pressure system could also cause a storm surge of up to four feet (one meter) where the winds blow the water toward the coast.

Flood Watches were in effect for portions of South Central and Southeast Texas.