Tag Archives: 12E

Lorena Prompts Tropical Storm Watch for Baja California

The risk posed by Tropical Storm Lorena prompted the government of Mexico to issue a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the coast of southern Baja California.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located at latitude 19.4°N and longitude 109.0°W which put the center about 250 miles (400 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Lorena was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Lucas to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Lorena strengthened gradually on Tuesday afternoon.  Thunderstorms continued to develop near the center of Lorena’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Lorena.  Storms near the center of Lorena generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and west of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease slowly.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Lorena was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Lorena’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Lorena will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Lorena will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Lorena’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Lorena will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Lorena could strengthen to a hurricane on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Lorena will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Lorena toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Lorena will move south of Baja California during Tuesday night.  Lorena is expected to move toward the northeast later this week.  Tropical Storm Lorena could approach the coast of Baja California between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia on Friday.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Kiko strengthened to a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale far to the east of Hawaii.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Kiko was located at latitude 13.9°N and longitude 128.9°W which put the center about 1775 miles (2855 km) east Hilo Hawaii.  Kiko was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Depression Strengthens to Tropical Storm Lorena

Former Tropical Depression Twelve-E strengthened to Tropical Storm Lorena over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south-southeast of Baja California on Tuesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located at latitude 18.3°N and longitude 107.9°W which put the center about 345 miles (550 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Lorena was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Former Tropical Depression Twelve-E strengthened to Tropical Storm Lorena on Tuesday morning.  New thunderstorms continued to develop near the center of Lorena’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Lorena.  Storms near the center of Lorena generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and west of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Lorena was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Lorena’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Lorena will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Lorena will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over Mexico. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Lorena’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Lorena will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Lorena will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Lorena toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Lorena will move south of Baja California during Tuesday night.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, former Tropical Storm Kiko intensified to a hurricane far to the east of Hawaii.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Kiko was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 128.3°W which put the center about 1815 miles (2920 km) east Hilo Hawaii.  Kiko was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Tropical Depression 12E Forms Near Mexico’s West Coast

Tropical Depression Twelve-E formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean near the west coast of Mexico on Monday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Twelve-E was located at latitude 17.2°N and longitude 105.4°W which put the center about 145 miles (230 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Tropical Depression Twelve-E was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean strengthened on Monday evening and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Twelve-E.

The circulation around Tropical Depression Twelve-E exhibited more organization on Monday evening.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of the tropical depression.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Depression Twelve-E.  Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Twelve-E will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical depression.  The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east.  So, there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Depression Twelve-E will intensify to a tropical storm on Tuesday.

Tropical Depression Twelve-E will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Twelve-E will move toward Baja California.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Kiko intensified on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 127.3°W which put the center about 1880 miles (3025 km) east Hilo Hawaii.  Kiko was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Kristy Weakens to a Tropical Storm

Former Hurricane Kristy weakened to a tropical storm over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Baja California on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Kristy was located at latitude 20.7°N and longitude 129.2°W which put the center about 1245 miles (2005 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  Kristy was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Former Hurricane Kristy moved under the eastern side of an upper level trough east of Hawaii.  The upper level trough produced strong southwesterly winds that blew across the top of Kristy’s circulation.  Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear.  The wind shear blew the tops off of many of the thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Kristy, which caused Kristy to weaken rapidly.

The former eye of then Hurricane Kristy was still visible on satellite images.  However, the eye was surrounded by a ring of low clouds.  A few thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the northern side of Tropical Storm Kristy.  Most of the bands revolving around the center of Kristy’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Despite the strong vertical wind shear, the distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Kristy was fairly symmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Kristy’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Kristy will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Kristy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25°C.  The upper level trough east of Hawaii will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Kristy will continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough east of Hawaii will steer Tropical Storm Kristy toward the northwest during the next 12 hours.  After the last thunderstorms in Kristy’s circulation dissipate, the tropical storm will be steered by the winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  A high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean will steer Kristy toward the west-southwest on Sunday.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Kristy will remain far from any land area.

Hurricane Kristy Weakens

Hurricane Kristy weakened over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Friday morning,  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Kristy was located at latitude 15.6°N and longitude 124.8°W which put the center about 1085 miles (1750 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Kristy was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

Hurricane Kristy weakened over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Friday morning after reaching Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Thursday.  Clouds were developing inside the eye at the center of Kristy’s circulation.  The eye was still surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Kristy.  Storms near the core of Kristy’s circulation generated less upper level divergence than they did on Thursday.  The removal of less mass caused the surface pressure to increase.

The circulation around Hurricane Kristy continued to be small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Kristy’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Hurricane Kristy.

Hurricane Kristy will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Kristy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the southern end of an upper level trough east of Hawaii.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Kristy’s circulation.  Those upper level winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Hurricane Kristy will continue to weaken during the next 24 hours because of the increased vertical wind shear.

Hurricane Kristy will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Kristy toward the northwest during the next 24 h.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Kristy will continue to remain far from any land mass.

Hurricane Kristy Intensifies to Cat. 5

Hurricane Kristy intensified to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Thursday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Kristy was located at latitude 14.2°N and longitude 121.6°W which put the center about 970 miles (1565 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Kristy was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 926 mb.

Hurricane Kristy looked like a Category 5 hurricane on visible satellite images on Thursday afternoon.  A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was at the center of Kristy’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Kristy.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large amounts of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Kristy was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Kristy’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Hurricane Kristy.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Kristy was 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 8.2.  Hurricane Kristy is smaller than Hurricane Milton was when Milton was over the Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Kristy will move through an environment that will become less favorable for a powerful hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Kristy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move toward the southern end of an upper level trough between Hawaii and California.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will start to affect Hurricane Kristy on Friday.  Those upper level winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Hurricane Kristy will start to weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.

Hurricane Kristy will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Kristy toward the northwest during the next 24 h.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Kristy will continue to remain far from any land mass.

Kristy Rapidly Intensifies to a Major Hurricane South of Baja California

Hurricane Kristy rapidly intensified to a major hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Kristy was located at latitude 14.3°N and longitude 113.9°W which put the center about 650 miles (1045 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Kristy was moving toward the west at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

Hurricane Kristy continued to intensify rapidly on Wednesday morning.  A small circular eye was at the center of Kristy’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Kristy.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large amounts of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Hurricane Kristy was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Kristy’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Hurricane Kristy.

Hurricane Kristy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Kristy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Kristy will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Kristy could continue to intensify rapidly. Hurricane Kristy could to strengthen to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Thursday.

Hurricane Kristy will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will continue to steer Kristy toward the west during the next 24 h.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Kristy will continue to move farther away from Mexico.

Kristy Rapidly Intensifies to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Kristy rapidly intensified to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Kristy was located at latitude 14.7°N and longitude 108.5°W which put the center about 550 miles (890 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Kristy was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Kristy rapidly intensified to a hurricane on Tuesday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Kristy’s circulation.  A circular eye formed at the center of Hurricane Kristy.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Kristy’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Kristy generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Hurricane Kristy became more symmetrical on Tuesday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Kristy’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Hurricane Kristy.

Hurricane Kristy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Kristy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Kristy will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Kristy could continue to intensify rapidly.  Hurricane Kristy is likely to strengthen to a major hurricane on Wednesday.

Hurricane Kristy will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will continue to steer Kristy toward the west during the next 24 h.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Kristy will continue to move farther away from Mexico.

Tropical Storm Kristy Forms South of Mexico

Tropical Storm Kristy formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Kristy was located at latitude 13.5°N and longitude 102.0°W which put the center about 275 miles (440 km) south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.  Kristy was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico strengthened on Monday and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Kristy.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Kristy’s circulation.  Thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Kristy.  Storms near the center of Kristy began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Kristy was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the northern side of Kristy’s circulation.  The winds in the southern part of Tropical Storm Kristy were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Kristy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Kristy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Kristy will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Kristy is likely to strengthen to a hurricane by the middle of this week.

Tropical Storm Kristy will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Kristy toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Kristy will move away from the coast of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Kay Brings Rain to Southern California

Tropical Storm Kay brought rain to parts of southern California. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Kay was located at latitude 30.7°N and longitude 117.2°W which put it about 140 miles (225 km) south of San Diego, California. Kay was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Eugenia, Mexico to the border with the U.S. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Bahia De Los Angeles to Puerto Libertad, Mexico.

Rainbands in the northern side of Tropical Storm Kay dropped rain over parts of southern California. Heavy rain was also falling over parts of northwestern Mexico and there were reports of flash floods in that region. The center of Tropical Storm Kay was over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of San Diego. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Kay’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of circulation. The strongest winds were occurring over the Eastern North Pacific and the Gulf of California. Strong wind gusts were also reported in mountains in northwestern Mexico and southern California.

Tropical Storm Kay will continue to weaken gradually. Kay will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 22˚C. As Tropical Storm Kay weakens, the clouds will not rise as high in the atmosphere and Kay will be steered by the winds closer to the surface. Those winds will steer Tropical Storm Kay toward the west during the next 36 hours. The rain over southern California will diminish during the weekend as Kay moves westward and weakens.