Tag Archives: Azores

Subtropical Storm Don Develops West of the Azores

Subtropical Storm Don developed west of the Azores on Friday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Subtropical Storm Don was located at latitude 32.9°N and longitude 46.8°W which put it about 1165 miles (1875 km) west-southwest of the Azores. Don was moving toward the north at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A large low pressure system over the central Atlantic Ocean west of the Azores exhibited more organization on Friday morning and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Subtropical Storm Don. A distinct low level center of circulation was evident on visible satellite images. However, Subtropical storm Don was under an upper level trough. The bands near the center of Don consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Thunderstorms were occurring in a band that curled around the eastern and northern part of Don’s circulation. The strongest winds were occurring in that band of storms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) in the eastern side of Subtropical Storm Don. Winds in the western side of Don were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Subtropical Storm Don will move through an environment only marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Don will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26˚C. The upper level trough contains colder air, which will contribute to a more unstable atmosphere. However, the upper level trough will also limit the upper level divergence. There will be little vertical wind shear near the center of the upper level trough. Southerly in the eastern side of the trough will blow over the eastern side of Subtropical Storm Don. Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear in that area. The upper level trough could also circulate sinking, drier air around the western and southern sides of Don’s circulation. Subtropical Storm Don could maintain an equilibrium with its environment during the next 24 hours and its intensity may not change much.

The upper level trough will steer Subtropical Storm Don slowly toward the north during the next 24 hours. A high pressure system south of Greenland will block Don and prevent it from moving north on Sunday. Don is likely to move toward the east early next week. On its anticipated track, Subtropical Storm Don will meander west of the Azores during the next few days.

Tropical Storm Ian Passes South of Jamaica

Tropical Storm Ian passed south of Jamaica on Saturday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located at latitude 14.7°N and longitude 77.7°W which put it about 395 miles (630 km) southeast of Grand Cayman. Ian was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Grand Cayman. Hurricane Watches were in effect for the Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio and Artemisa. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. Tropical Storm Watches were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque and Matanzas.

Tropical Storm Ian gradually got better organized on Saturday. More thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms formed and began to revolve around the center of Ian’s circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the northern side of Ian. The winds in the southern half of Tropical Storm Ian were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Ian will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Ian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Ian is likely to intensify more quickly on Sunday. Tropical Storm Ian is likely to intensify to a hurricane during the next 24 hours. Ian could intensify rapidly after an inner core with an eye and an eyewall form. Ian could intensify to a major hurricane within 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Ian will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ian toward the northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Ian could be near Grand Cayman on Monday morning. Ian could be near western Cuba on Tuesday morning. Ian could be a major hurricane when it approaches western Cuba. Ian will move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Gaston brought wind and rain to the western Azores and Tropical Depression Hermine was weakening north-northeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was located at latitude 38.6°N and longitude 33.4°W which put it about 255 miles (410 km) west of the Faial, Azores. Gaston was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 9979 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Corvo, and Flores.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Hermine was located at latitude 22.9°N and longitude 20.3°W which put it about 535 miles (860 km) north-northeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Hermine was moving toward the north at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Hurricane Fiona Nears Canadian Maritimes

Hurricane Fiona neared the Canadian Maritimes on Friday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Fiona was located at latitude 44.5°N and longitude 60.8°W which put it about 140 miles (220 km) east of Halifax, Nova Scotia. Fiona was moving toward the north at 46 m.p.h. (74 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 933 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Hubbards to Brule, Nova Scotia. Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Prince Edward Islands and Isle de la Madeline. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Parson’s Pond to Francois, Newfoundland. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for St. Andrews, New Brunswick to Hubbards, Nova Scotia. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Brule, Nova Scotia to Cap Madeline, Quebec. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Anticosti Island and for the portion of the coast from Sheldrake, Quebec to Parson’s Pond, Newfoundland. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Boat Harbor to Hare Bay, Newfoundland. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Francois to St. Lawrence, Newfoundland. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Boat Harbor, Newfoundland to West Bay, Labrador.

Hurricane Fiona was making a rapid transition to a large, powerful extratropical cyclone on Friday night. The former eye and eyewall were no longer present at the center of Fiona. Most of the remaining thunderstorms were in bands northeast of the center of Fiona’s circulation. Cooler drier air was wrapping around the western and southern sides of the circulation. Upper level divergence above Hurricane Fiona was still pumping mass away and the surface pressure remained around 933 mb.

Hurricane Fiona grew much larger during the transition to an extratropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Fiona’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 345 miles (555 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Fiona was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 48.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 66.2. Hurricane Fiona was capable of causing extensive serious damage.

An upper level trough over eastern Canada will steer Hurricane Fiona quickly toward the north during the weekend. The strongest winds will occur over eastern Nova Scotia and western Newfoundland. Strong winds will also affect the rest of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island, parts of New Brunswick, Quebec and Labrador. The large circulation around Hurricane Fiona could cause widespread electrical outages. Locally heavy rain could cause floods in some places. Large waves and a storm surge could cause damage along the coast.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Gaston brought wind and rain to the Azores, Tropical Storm Hermine moved northeast of the Cabo Verde Islands and Tropical Storm Ian formed over the Caribbean Sea.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was located at latitude 38.9°N and longitude 29.5°W which put it about 50 miles (80 km) west-northwest of the Faial, Azores. Gaston was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Corvo, Flores, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and Terceira.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was located at latitude 19.4°N and longitude 20.8°W which put it about 315 miles (505 km) northeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Hermine was moving toward the north at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located at latitude 14.8°N and longitude 72.0°W which put it about 385 miles (625 km) southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. Ian was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Hurricane Watches were in effect for the Cayman Islands including Grand Cayman, Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Jamaica.

Hurricane Fiona Blows Past Bermuda

Hurricane Fiona blew past Bermuda on Thursday night. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Fiona was located at latitude 34.1°N and longitude 64.9°W which put it about 125 miles (200 km) north of Bermuda. Fiona was moving toward the north-northeast at 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 936 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Bermuda. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Hubbards to Brule, Nova Scotia. Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Prince Edward Islands and Isle de la Madeline. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Parson’s Pond to Francois, Newfoundland. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for St. Andrews, New Brunswick to Hubbards, Nova Scotia. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Brule, Nova Scotia to Cap Madeline, Quebec. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Anticosti Island and for the portion of the coast from Sheldrake, Quebec to Parson’s Pond, Newfoundland. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Boat Harbor to Hare Bay, Newfoundland. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Francois to St. Lawrence, Newfoundland. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Boat Harbor, Newfoundland to West Bay, Labrador.

The center of Hurricane Fiona passed west of Bermuda on Thursday night. The L. F. Wade International Airport in Bermuda reported a sustained wind speed of 64 m.p.h. (103 km/h) and a wind gust of 83 m.p.h. (134 km/h). There were reports of stronger wind speeds measured by automated stations in higher locations in Bermuda.

Hurricane Fiona continued to be a large, well organized hurricane. A circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) was at the center of Fiona’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the core of Hurricane Fiona. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

Hurricane Fiona grew into a large hurricane as it moved farther north on Thursday night. Winds to hurricane force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Fiona. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 345 miles (555 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 32.70 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 56.3. Hurricane Fiona was larger than Hurricane Jeanne was in 2004.

Hurricane Fiona will move through an environment that will become less favorable for a major hurricane during the next 24 hours. Fiona will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures colder than 26˚C. An upper level trough near the East Coast of the U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fiona’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Hurricane Fiona will start to weaken gradually when the wind shear increase. A combination of colder Sea Surface Temperatures and moderate vertical wind shear will cause Hurricane Fiona to make a transition to a very strong extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough near the East Coast of the U.S. will steer Fiona toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Fiona will move away from Bermuda on Friday. Hurricane Fiona will approach the Canadian Maritimes on Friday night. Fiona will bring strong, destructive winds to the Canadian Maritimes. Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Gaston was bringing wind and rain to the Azores and Tropical Depression Nine formed over the southeastern Caribbean Sea. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Corvo, Flores, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and Terceira. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was located at latitude 40.5°N and longitude 29.2°W which put it about 135 miles (215 km) north-northwest of the Faial. Gaston was moving toward the east-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located at latitude 13.9°N and longitude 68.6°W which put it about 615 miles (985 km) east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. The tropical depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb. Tropical Depression Nine is forecast to intensify to a hurricane over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the weekend. It could move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico early next week.

Hurricane Fiona Moves Toward Bermuda

Hurricane Fiona moved toward Bermuda on Thursday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Fiona was located at latitude 28.0°N and longitude 70.6°W which put it about 455 miles (735 km) southwest of Bermuda. Fiona was moving toward the north-northeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 934 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Bermuda.

Hurricane Fiona moved closer to Bermuda on Thursday morning. A circular eye was at the center of Fiona’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Fiona. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of large quantities of mass was allowing the surface pressure to remain low.

Hurricane Fiona increased in size as it moved farther north. Winds to hurricane force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Fiona. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (325 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 24.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 49.1. Hurricane Fiona was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Jeanne from 2004.

Hurricane Fiona will move through an environment that will become less favorable for a major hurricane during the next 24 hours. Fiona will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level trough near the East Coast of the U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fiona’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Hurricane Fiona will start to weaken gradually when the wind shear increase.

The upper level trough near the East Coast of the U.S. will steer Fiona toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Fiona will be a little to the west of Bermuda on Thursday night. Fiona is likely to be a major hurricane when it gets to Bermuda. Hurricane Fiona will bring strong, gusty winds and heavy rain to Bermuda. Fiona could approach the Canadian Maritimes on Saturday.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Gaston prompted Tropical Storm Warnings for the Azores. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Corvo, Flores, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and Terceira. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was located at latitude 40.7°N and longitude 34.5°W which put it about 340 miles (550 km) west-northwest of the Azores. Gaston was moving toward the east-northeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Hurricane Fiona Intensifies to Cat. 4

Hurricane Fiona intensified to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Wednesday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Fiona was located at latitude 24.2°N and longitude 71.7°W which put it about 700 miles (1125 km) southwest of Bermuda. Fiona was moving toward the north at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 937 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was issued for Bermuda. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for Bermuda.

Hurricane Fiona continued to intensify over the warm Atlantic Ocean east of the Bahamas on Wednesday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) was present at the center of Fiona’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Fiona. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of large quantities of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease.

Hurricane Fiona maintained its size as it strengthened during Tuesday night. Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Fiona. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 39.9.

Hurricane Fiona will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Fiona will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Fiona is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Hurricane Fiona to weaken.

Hurricane Fiona will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fiona toward the north during the next 12 hours. An upper level trough near the East Coast of the U.S. will start to steer Fiona toward the northeast on later Wednesday. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Fiona will affect Bermuda on Thursday night. Fiona could be a major hurricane when it gets to Bermuda. Hurricane Fiona could approach the Canadian Maritimes on Saturday.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Gaston strengthened west of the Azores. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was located at latitude 37.5°N and longitude 42.6°W which put it about 850 miles (1370 km) west of the Azores. Gaston was moving toward the northeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Hurricane Fiona Moves Away from the Turks and Caicos

Hurricane Fiona moved away from the Turks and Caicos on Tuesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Fiona was located at latitude 23.2°N and longitude 71.8°W which put it about 95 miles (155 km) north of Caicos Island. Fiona was moving toward the north at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Bermuda.

Hurricane Fiona strengthened on Tuesday night as it moved away form the Turks and Caicos. A circular eye with a diameter of 23 miles (37 km) was at the center of Fiona’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Fiona. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of large quantities of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease.

Hurricane Fiona grew larger as it strengthened. Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Fiona. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 38.4.

Hurricane Fiona will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Fiona will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Fiona is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours. Fiona could strengthen to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Hurricane Fiona to weaken temporarily.

Hurricane Fiona will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fiona toward the north during the next 12 hours. An upper level trough near the East Coast of the U.S. will start to steer Fiona toward the northeast on later Wednesday. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Fiona will affect Bermuda on Thursday night. Fiona could be a major hurricane when it gets to Bermuda. Hurricane Fiona could approach the Canadian Maritimes on Saturday.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Gaston formed west of the Azores. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was located at latitude 36.2°N and longitude 43.6°W which put it about 920 miles (1485 km) west of the Azores. Gaston was moving toward the north-northeast at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Bermuda Issues Hurricane Watch for Hurricane Earl

The government of Bermuda issued a Hurricane Watch on Wednesday afternoon because of the potential effects of Hurricane Earl. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Earl was located at latitude 26.5°N and longitude 65.5°W which put it about 405 miles (650 km) south of Bermuda. Earl was moving toward the north at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for Bermuda. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for Bermuda.

Hurricane Earl exhibited more organization on Thursday afternoon. An circular eye with a diameter of 18 miles (30 km) was at the center of Earl’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a partial ring of thunderstorms. Thunderstorms surrounded the northern half of the eye. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the more organized core of Hurricane Earl. Storms near the center of Earl generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Earl increased in size on Thursday. Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Earl’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Earl was 12.7. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 27.5.

Hurricane Earl will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Earl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Earl will intensify during the next 36 hours. After an inner core with a fully formed eye and eyewall develops, Earl could intensify rapidly. Hurricane Earl could strengthen to a major hurricane within 36 hours.

Hurricane Earl will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Earl toward the north during the next 12 hours. An upper level trough near the East Coast of the U.S. will turn Hurricane Earl toward the northeast on Thursday. On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Earl will pass southeast of Bermuda on Thursday evening. Bands in the western side of Hurricane Earl could bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Bermuda.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Danielle maintained hurricane intensity northwest of the Azores. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Danielle was located at latitude 44.9°N and longitude 34.9°W which put it about 625 miles (1010 km) northwest of the Azores. Danielle was moving toward the northeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

Tropical Storm Earl Prompts Watch for Bermuda

A potential risk posed by Tropical Storm Earl prompted the issuance of a Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda on Tuesday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located at latitude 24.1°N and longitude 65.8°W which put it about 570 miles (915 km) south of Bermuda. Earl was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Earl was close to strengthening to a hurricane on Tuesday afternoon. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern half of the center of circulation. An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Earl’s circulation. Bands of thunderstorms were located in the eastern and northern parts of Tropical Storm Earl. Bands in the southern and western parts of the circulation still consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Earl.

Tropical Storm Earl will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Earl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. An upper level low southwest of Bermuda will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Earl’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Storm Earl could continue to intensify slowly. The upper level winds are forecast to weaken later on Wednesday, and Earl is likely to intensify to a major hurricane after that happens.

Tropical Storm Earl will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Earl toward the north during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Earl will approach Bermuda on Thursday afternoon. Earl will be a hurricane when it approaches Bermuda.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Danielle was moving toward the east-northeast west of the Azores. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Danielle was located at latitude 42.5°N and longitude 40.3°W which put it about 765 miles (1230 km) west-northwest of the Azores. Danielle was moving toward the east-northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Tropical Storm Earl Intensifies North of the Virgin Islands

Tropical Storm Earl intensified north of the Virgin Islands on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located at latitude 21.5°N and longitude 65.3°W which put it about 215 miles (345 km) north-northwest of St. Thomas. Earl was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane found that Tropical Storm Earl had intensified during a reconnaissance flight on Monday morning. Even though the circulation around Tropical Storm Earl was stronger, the distribution of thunderstorms was still asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Earl’s circulation. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms in the eastern half of Earl generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Earl’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Earl will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Earl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough near the Bahamas. The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ear;’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Storm Earl could continue to intensify slowly. The upper level winds are forecast to weaken in a day or so, and Earl is likely to intensify to a hurricane when that happens.

Tropical Storm Earl will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Earl toward the north during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Earl will move farther away from the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Earl could approach Bermuda by the end of the week.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Danielle started to weaken west of the Azores. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Danielle was located at latitude 40.2°N and longitude 43.9°W which put it about 915 miles (1475 km) west-northwest of the Azores. Danielle was moving toward the north-northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.