Tag Archives: Azores

Leslie Intensifies to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Leslie intensified to a hurricane over the eastern Atlantic Ocean on Friday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Leslie was located at latitude 10.3°N and longitude 33.6°W which put the center about 725 miles (1170 km) west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Leslie was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Leslie intensified to a hurricane over the eastern Atlantic Ocean on Friday night.  A circular eye formed at the center of Leslie’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the core of Hurricane Leslie.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Leslie was relatively small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Leslie’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Hurricane Leslie.

Hurricane Leslie will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Leslie will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Upper level divergence from Hurricane Kirk is currently just missing Hurricane Leslie.  If Leslie moves under the divergence from Hurricane Kirk, then the wind shear will increase.  Hurricane Leslie is likely to stay just outside the upper level divergence from Hurricane Kirk on Saturday, which will allow Leslie to intensify.

Hurricane Leslie will move around the southwestern side of a high pressure system over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Leslie toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Leslie will move farther away from the Cabo Verde Islands.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, powerful Hurricane Kirk was in the middle of an eyewall replacement cycle.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Kirk was located at latitude 25.0°N and longitude 49.8°W which put the center about 1610 miles (2585 km) southwest of the Azores.  Kirk was moving toward the north-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 943 mb.

Hurricane Kirk Strengthens to Cat. 4

Hurricane Kirk strengthened to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the Tropical Atlantic Ocean on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Kirk was located at latitude 21.5°N and longitude 47.5°W which put the center about 1670 miles (2685 km) southwest of the Azores.  Kirk was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 170 m.p.h. (275 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 935 mb.

Hurricane Kirk rapidly continued to intensify on Thursday.  Kirk reached Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was at the center of Kirk’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Hurricane Kirk.  Storms near the center of Kirk generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the pressure to continue to decrease.

The core of Hurricane Kirk contracted as Kirk intensified on Thursday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Kirk’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Hurricane Kirk.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 29.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 42.9.

Hurricane Kirk will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Kirk will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the central Atlantic Ocean.  The winds are weak near the middle of the upper level ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Kirk is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours unless the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall.  If concentric eyewalls form, then an eyewall replacement cycle would cause Kirk to weaken.  If an eyewall replacement cycle does not occur, then Hurricane Kirk could strengthen to a Category 5 hurricane.

Hurricane Kirk will move around the western part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Kirk toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Kirk will remain far from any land area.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, the upper level divergence from Hurricane Kirk was inhibiting the intensification of Tropical Storm Leslie.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located at latitude 10.0°N and longitude 32.0°W which put the center about 610 miles (980 km) west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Leslie was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

Tropical Storm Kirk Forms Over the Eastern Atlantic

Tropical Storm Kirk formed over the eastern Atlantic Ocean west of the Cabo Verde Islands on Monday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located at latitude 13.5°N and longitude 34.8°W which put the center about 740 miles (1195 km) west of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Kirk was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A low pressure system over the eastern Atlantic Ocean west of the Cabo Verde Islands strengthened on Monday morning and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Kirk.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Kirk exhibited more organization on Monday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Kirk’s circulation.  Storms near the center of KIrk’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  Even though Tropical Storm Kirk exhibited more organization, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in southern and eastern parts of Kirk’s circulation.  Bands in the northern parts of Tropical Storm Kirk consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The distribution of winds speeds around Tropical Storm Kirk was fairly symmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Kirk’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Kirk will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Kirk will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.  The winds are weak near the middle of the upper level ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Kirk will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Kirk is likely to strengthen to a hurricane on Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Kirk will move around of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Kirk toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Kirk will move farther away from the Cabo Verde Islands.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Isaac was making a transition to an extratropical cyclone north-northwest of the Azores and Tropical Depression Joyce was spinning east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was located at latitude 44.8°N and longitude 29.1°W which put the center about 480 miles (775 km) north-northwest of the Azores.  Isaac was moving toward the east-northeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Joyce was located at latitude 22.4°N and longitude 49.3°W which put the center about 940 miles (1510 km) east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands.  Joyce was moving toward the north at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Hurricane Isaac Strengthens to Cat. 2 West of the Azores

Hurricane Isaac strengthened to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the North Atlantic Ocean west of the Azores on Saturday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Isaac was located at latitude 40.2°N and longitude 39.7°W which put the center about 695 miles (1120 km) west-northwest of the Azores.  Isaac was moving toward the east-northeast at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

Even though Hurricane Isaac was at latitude 40°N, it intensified to a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Saturday morning.  A circular eye was present at the center of Isaac’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Isaac.  Storms near the core of Isaac generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Isaac was reasonably symmetrical given it high latitude.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Isaac’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of Hurricane Isaac.

Hurricane Isaac will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Isaac will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough that is southeast of Greenland.  The upper level trough will produce strong southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Isaac’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  The combination of cooler water and stronger vertical wind shear will cause Hurricane Isaac to weaken during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough southeast of Greenland will steer Hurricane Isaac toward the east-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Isaac will pass northwest of the Azores on Sunday.

Elsewhere, the circulation of former Hurricane Helene was spinning down south of the Ohio River and Tropical Storm Joyce was churning east of the Northern Leeward Islands.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Helene was located at latitude 36.6°N and longitude 86.4°W which put the center about 50 miles (80 km) northwest of Nashville, Tennessee.  Helene was moving toward the east at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 15 m.p.h. (25 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was located at latitude 20.0°N and longitude 46.0°W which put the center about 1120 miles (1805 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands.  Joyce was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Storm Helene Brings Heavy Rain and Floods to Southeast U.S.

Tropical Storm Helene brought heavy rain and floods to parts of the southeast U.S. on Friday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located at latitude 35.1°N and longitude 83.8°W which put the center about 30 miles (50 km) southwest of Bryson City, North Carolina.  Helene was moving toward the north at 32 m.p.h. (52 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Savannah River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South Carolina.

Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for inland locations in South Carolina, eastern Georgia, western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee. 

Even though former Hurricane Helene weakened to a tropical storm as it moved over the southeastern U.S. on Friday, Helene still was dropping very heavy rain.  Heavy rain fell over parts of Georgia, South Carolina, western North Carolina, eastern Tennessee, and western Virginia.  The heavy rain caused rivers and streams to rise quickly in those areas and numerous flash flood and flood warnings were issued.

The Catawba River at Pleasant Gardens, North Carolina was at Record Flood level.  The Saluda River at Greenville, South Carolina was at Major Flood level.  The French Broad River at Blantyre, North Carolina was at Record Flood level.  The Pigeon River at Canton, North Carolina was at Record Flood level.  The Pigeon River at Newport, Tennessee was at Major Flood level.  The Swannanoa River at Biltmore, North Carolina was at Record Flood level.  Numerous other rivers and streams in the region were also flooding.  Many roads were impassible.

Over four million customers in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina were experiencing electricity outages.

Tropical Storm Helene will move around the eastern side of an upper level low over the middle Mississippi River Valley.  The upper level low will steer Helene toward the north during the next 24 hours.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Helene will gradually merge with the circulation around the upper level low.

Tropical Storm Helene will continue to drop heavy rain on the southern Appalachians.  the heavy rain is likely to cause additional flash floods.  Helene will also bring gusty winds as far north as southern and central Ohio on Friday afternoon and evening.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, former Tropical Storm Isaac intensified to a hurricane west of the Azores and Tropical Storm Joyce formed east of the Northern Leeward Islands.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Isaac was located at latitude 37.4°N and longitude 46.8°W which put the center about 1080 miles (1740 km) west of the Azores.  Isaac was moving toward the east-northeast at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was located at latitude 18.1°N and longitude 42.9°W which put the center about 1325 miles (2130 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands.  Joyce was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Former Hurricane Lee Brings Strong Winds to Nova Scotia

Former Hurricane Lee brought strong winds to Nova Scotia on Saturday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of former Hurricane Lee was located at latitude 44.5°N and longitude 66.1°W which put it about 50 miles (80 km) south of Saint John, New Brunswick. Lee was moving toward the north at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Elizabeth, Maine to the U.S. Canada border. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the U.S./Canada border to Belledune, New Brunswick. That Tropical Storm Warning included Grand Manan Island. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for all of Nova Scotia. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Magdalen Islands and for Prince Edward Island.

Former Hurricane Lee completed a transition of a strong extratropical cyclone on Saturday. The center of former Hurricane Lee was over the Bay of Fundy on Saturday afternoon. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 320 miles (520 km) from the center of former Hurricane Lee.

Former Hurricane Lee was causing strong gusty winds in Maine, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia on Saturday afternoon. Almost 90,000 electricity outages were reported in Maine.

A weather station in Grand Manan Island reported a sustained wind speed of 51 m.p.h. (82 km/h) and a wind gust of 93 m.p.h. (150 km/h). A weather station in Halifax, Nova Scotia reported a sustained wind speed of 52 m.p.h. (83 km/h) and a wind gust of 60 m.p.h. (96 km/h). A weather station in Lunenburg, Nova Scotia reported a sustained wind speed of 50 m.p.h. (81 km/h) and a wind gust of 66 m.p.h. (106 km/h).

A weather station in Nantucket, Massachusetts (KACK) reported a sustained wind speed of 36 m.p.h. (58 km/h) and a wind gust of 58 m.p.h. (93 km/h). A weather station in Vinal Haven, Maine reported a sustained wind speed of 44 m.p.h. (71 km/h).

Former Hurricane Lee will move toward the east-northeast on Sunday. The strong extratropical cyclone will produce strong winds over Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Margot meandered west of the Azores and Tropical Depression Fifteen was spinning over the Central Atlantic. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Margot was located at latitude 34.3°N and longitude 39.6°W which put it about 745 miles (1200 km) west-southwest of the Azores. Margot was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen was located at latitude 20.8°N and longitude 47.1°W which put it about 1005 miles (1745 km) east-northeast of the Lesser Antilles. The tropical depression was moving toward the north-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Hurricane Lee Moves Toward Nova Scotia

Hurricane Lee moved toward Nova Scotia on Friday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Lee was located at latitude 37.9°N and longitude 66.7°W which put it about 490 miles (790 km) south-southwest of Halifax, Nova Scotia. Lee was moving toward the north at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau, New Brunswick. That Hurricane Watch included Grand Manan Island. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Digby to Ecum Secum, Nova Scotia.

Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Westport, Massachusetts to the U.S. Canada border. That Tropical Storm Warning included Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the U.S./Canada border to Fort Lawrence, New Brunswick. That Tropical Storm Warning included Grand Manan Island. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Shediac to Tidnish, New Brunswick. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Fort Lawrence, New Brunswick to Point Tupper, Nova Scotia.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Prince Edward Island and the Magdalen Islands. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Belledune to Shediac, New Brunswick. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Tidnish, New Brunswick to Aulds Cove, Nova Scotia. A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Aulds Cove to Meat Cove to Point Tupper, Nova Scotia.

Hurricane Lee was in the middle of a transition to an extratropical cyclone on Friday afternoon. There was no longer a well formed eye at the center of Lee’s circulation. Drier air was being pulled around the southern side of Hurricane Lee. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. was producing southerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Lee’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear. The effects of the drier air and the vertical wind shear were causing an asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms in Hurricane Lee. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern half of Lee’s circulation, Bands in the southern half of Hurricane Lee consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The changes to the structure of Hurricane Lee produced a large area of tropical storm force winds. Winds to hurricane force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Lee’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 345 miles (555 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 11.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 39.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 51.3. Hurricane Lee was about three-fourths as large as Hurricane Sandy was in 2012.

Hurricane Lee will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification of a hurricane during the next 24 hours. Lee will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are colder than 26°C. The upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will continue to will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The circulation around Lee will also pull in more drier air. The combination of colder water, moderate vertical wind shear and the drier air will cause Hurricane Lee to weaken gradually during the next 24 hours. That same combination of environmental factors will also cause Hurricane Lee to complete a transition to an extratropical cyclone on Saturday.

Hurricane Lee will move around the western part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system and the upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will steer Lee toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Lee reach Nova Scotia on Saturday. Even though Hurricane Lee will be making a transition to an extratropical cyclone on Saturday, Lee will bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of the Northeast U.S. and to Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and Prince Edward Island. Widespread outages of electricity are possible. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in come locations. The winds blowing around the northern side of Hurricane Lee will push water toward the coast. The water level could rise as much as four feet (one meter) along parts of the coast.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, former Hurricane Margot weakened to a tropical storm west of the Azores and Tropical Depression Fifteen formed east of the Lesser Antilles. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Margot was located at latitude 36.0°N and longitude 37.9°W which put it about 615 miles (990 km) west of the Azores. Margot was moving toward the southeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen was located at latitude 15.4°N and longitude 44.0°W which put it about 1150 miles (1885 km) west of the Azores. The tropical depression was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Hurricane Lee Prompts Watches for Northeast U.S.

The risk posed by Hurricane Lee prompted the issuance of a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the Northeast U.S. on Wednesday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Lee was located at latitude 27.4°N and longitude 67.6°W which put it about 380 miles (610 km) south-southwest of Bermuda. Lee was moving toward the north-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Stonington, Maine to the U.S./Canada border. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Bermuda. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Watch Hill, Rhode Island to Stonington, Maine. The Tropical Storm Watch included Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket.

Hurricane Lee weakened a little on Wednesday, but Lee remained a large and powerful hurricane. A circular eye with a diameter of 36 miles (50 km) was at the center of Lee’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Lee. Storms near the center of Lee’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

Hurricane Lee was still a very large hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Lee’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 265 miles (425 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 28.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 46.0. Hurricane Lee was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Frances when Frances hit Southeast Florida in 2004.

Hurricane Lee will move through an environment that will become more unfavorable for a major hurricane during the next 24 hours. Lee will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Lee’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase on Thursday. Hurricane Lee will move over cooler water later on Thursday. The combination of more vertical wind shear and cooler water will cause Hurricane Lee to weaken gradually during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Lee will move around the western part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Lee toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Lee will pass west of Bermuda on Thursday evening. Bands in the eastern side of Lee’s circulation will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Bermuda on Thursday.

Hurricane Lee could be east of Cape Cod by Saturday morning. Lee will affect Maine and Nova Scotia later on Saturday. Hurricane Lee could be in the middle of a transition to an extratropical cyclone on Saturday. Lee will bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of the Northeast U.S. and Nova Scotia. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in come locations. The winds blowing around the northern side of Hurricane Lee will push water toward the coast. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for Cape Cod Bay and Nantucket, Massachusetts.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Margot was spinning over the Central Atlantic. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Margot was located at latitude 34.7°N and longitude 40.6°W which put it about 790 miles (1270 km) west-southwest of the Azores. Margot was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 971 mb.

Hurricane Lee Prompts Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda

The potential effects of Hurricane Lee prompted the issuance of a Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda on Tuesday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Lee was located at latitude 24.7°N and longitude 66.4°W which put it about 530 miles (860 km) south of Bermuda. Lee was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (215 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 946 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Bermuda.

Hurricane Lee completed an eyewall replacement cycle on Tuesday. A large eye with a diameter of 45 miles (75 km) was at the center of Lee’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Hurricane Lee. Storms near the center of Lee’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Lee increased on Tuesday after the eyewall replacement cycle. Winds to hurricane force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Lee’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 240 miles (390 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 36.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 56.8. Hurricane Lee was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Ivan when Ivan hit the Gulf Coast in 2004.

Hurricane Lee will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Lee will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. The large size of the circulation around Hurricane Lee could limit changes of intensity during the next 24 hours. Lee could intensify a little on Wednesday. An upper level trough over the Great Lakes will cause the vertical wind shear to increase later this week.

Hurricane Lee will move around the western part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Lee toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Lee will move south-southwest of Bermuda on Wednesday.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Margot moved north over the Central Atlantic. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Margot was located at latitude 31.7°N and longitude 39.6°W which put it about 835 miles (1345 km) west-southwest of the Azores. Margot was moving toward the north at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

Tropical Storm Emily Forms Southwest of the Azores

Tropical Storm Emily formed over the Atlantic Ocean southwest of the Azores on Sunday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Emily was located at latitude 19.5°N and longitude 38.8°W which put it about 1000 miles (1615 km) west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Emily was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A low pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean southwest of the Azores strengthened on Sunday morning and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Emily. A distinct low level center of circulation was visible on satellite images. However, the distribution of thunderstorms In Tropical Storm Emily was asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern part of Emily’s circulation. Bands near the center of Emily and in the southern part of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) in the northern side of Emily’s circulation. Winds in the southern half of Emily consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Storm Emily was moving under the eastern part of an upper level low over the Atlantic Ocean. The upper level low was producing strong southerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Emily’s circulation. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear and the wind shear was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Storm Emily will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Emily will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C. However, the upper level low over the Atlantic Ocean will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear is likely to cause Emily to weaken during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Emily will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the eastern Atlantic Ocean during the next 36 hours. The high pressure system will steer Emily toward the west-northwest. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Emily will move toward the central Atlantic Ocean.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Depression Six continued to move toward the Northern Leeward Islands. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Six was located at latitude 16.8°N and longitude 53.7°W which put it about 625 miles (1010 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands. The tropical depression was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.