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Tropical Storm Beryl Approaches Texas Coast

Tropical Storm Beryl was approaching the coast of Texas on Sunday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located at latitude 27.6°N and longitude 95.6°W which put the center about 75 miles (120 km) south-southeast of Matagorda, Texas. Beryl was moving toward the north-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Mesquite Bay to Port Bolivar, Texas.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Mesquite Bay to Port Mansfield, Texas. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Port Bolivar to Sabine Pass, Texas.

A Storm Surge Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Mesquite Bay to Sabine Pass, Texas.

Tropical Storm Beryl was strengthening slowly but steadily on Sunday evening. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Beryl’s circulation. A circular eye with a diameter of 45 miles (75 km) was at the center of Tropical Storm Beryl. The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center to Tropical Storm Beryl. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease slowly.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Beryl became more symmetrical on Sunday. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Beryl will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under an upper level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. The upper level winds are weak in the ridge and there will be be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Beryl will continue to intensify during the next few hours. Beryl is very likely to strengthen to a hurricane. There could be a brief period of more rapid intensification if an inner core with an eye and and eyewall develops fully.

Tropical Storm Beryl will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the southeastern U.S. The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the of Tropical Storm Beryl will make landfall on the coast of Texas on Monday.

Tropical Storm Beryl is very likely to be a hurricane when it reaches the coast of Texas. Beryl will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of eastern Texas. The strong winds are likely to cause power outages. Up to 10 inches (250 mm) of rain could fall in some locations. Heavy rain is likely to cause flooding. Flood Watches were in effect for parts of eastern Texas. Tropical Storm Beryl could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) where the wind pushes water toward the coast.

Tropical Storm Beryl Churns Toward Texas

Tropical Storm Beryl churned toward the coast of Texas on Saturday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located at latitude 24.7°N and longitude 94.0°W which put the center about 300 miles (485 km) southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas. Beryl was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Baffin Bay to Sargent, Texas.

Hurricane Watches were in effect from the portions of the coast from Baffin Bay, Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River and from Sargent to San Luis Pass, Texas.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Baffin Bay, Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Sargent to High Island, Texas. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Rio Grande River to Barra el Mezquital, Mexico.

A Storm Surge Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the north end of Padre Island to High Island, Texas.

Storm Surge Watches were in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Rio Grande River to the north end of Padre Island, Texas and from High Island to Sabine Pass, Texas.

The structure of Tropical Storm Beryl did not change a lot on Saturday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western side of the center of Beryl’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center to Tropical Storm Beryl. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease slowly.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Storm Beryl also did not change much on Saturday. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) in the northern half of Beryl’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 45 miles in the southern half of Tropical Storm Beryl.

Tropical Storm Beryl will move into an environment that will become more favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours . Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level low over the western Gulf of Mexico. The upper level low will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the southeast. Since the winds in the upper and lower levels will blow from the southeast, there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Beryl will intensify during the next 24 hours. Beryl is likely to strengthen to a hurricane. Beryl could intensify rapidly if an inner core with an eye and and eyewall develops. There is a chance Beryl could intensify to a major hurricane before it reaches the coast.

Tropical Storm Beryl will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the southeastern U.S. The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Beryl will approach the coast of Texas on Sunday night.

Tropical Storm Beryl is likely to be a hurricane when it reaches the coast of Texas. Beryl will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of eastern Texas. Up to 10 inches (250 mm) of rain could fall in some locations. Heavy rain is likely to cause flooding. Flood Watches were in effect for parts of eastern Texas. Tropical Storm Beryl could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) where the wind pushes water toward the coast.

Tropical Storm Beryl Moves Toward Texas

Tropical Storm Beryl moved toward Texas on Saturday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located at latitude 23.0°N and longitude 92.3°W which put the center about 460 miles (740 km) southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas. Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect from the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Rio Grande River to San Luis Pass, Texas. The Hurricane Watch included Corpus Christi.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Baffin Bay, Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Rio Grande River to Barra el Mezquital, Mexico.

A Storm Surge Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Rio Grande River to High Island, Texas.

Tropical Storm Beryl exhibited more organization on Saturday morning. More thunderstorms formed near the center of Beryl’s circulation. The inner end of a band of thunderstorms wrapped around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to start to decrease again. More thunderstorms were also forming in bands revolving around the center of Beryl’s circulation.

The winds at the surface were just starting to be affected by the new thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Beryl. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) in the northern half of Beryl’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 45 miles in the southern half of Tropical Storm Beryl.

Beryl will move into an environment that will become more favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the northeastern part of an upper level low over the western Gulf of Mexico. The upper level low will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear is likely to decrease by Sunday. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent strengthening. Tropical Storm Beryl will intensify during the next 24 hours. Beryl is likely to strengthen to a hurricane. Beryl could intensify more rapidly when it approaches the Texas coast on Sunday. There is a chance Beryl could intensify to a major hurricane by the end of the weekend.

Tropical Storm Beryl Prompts Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches for Texas

The risk posed by Tropical Storm Beryl prompted the issuance of Hurricane and Storm Watches for a portion of the coast of Texas. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located at latitude 21.2°N and longitude 89.2°W which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) east-southwest of Progreso, Mexico. Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect from the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Rio Grande River to Sargent, Texas. The Hurricane Watch included Corpus Christi. A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Rio Grande River to Barra el Mezquital, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Campeche to Cabo Catoche, Mexico.

A Storm Surge Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Rio Grande River to Sargent, Texas.

Former Hurricane Beryl weakened to a tropical storm as it moved across the northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday. An eye was no longer detectable on visible satellite images, but the core of Beryl’s circulation appeared to be relatively intact. Thunderstorms were still occurring near the center of Tropical Storm Beryl. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center still generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km/h) from the center of Tropical Storm Beryl.

Beryl will move into an environment that will become more favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the eastern part of an upper level low over the western Gulf of Mexico. The upper level low will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent strengthening. Tropical Storm Beryl is likely to strengthen slowly during the next 24 hours until the inner core of the circulation becomes more organized. Beryl could intensify more rapidly when it approaches the Texas coast on Sunday. Tropical Storm Beryl is very likely to intensify back to a hurricane. There is a chance Beryl could intensify to a major hurricane by the end of the weekend.

Hurricane Beryl Hits the Yucatan

Hurricane Beryl hit the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 20.4°N and longitude 87.6°W which put the center about 15 miles (25 km) north-northwest of Tulum, Mexico. Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun, Mexico. A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for Cozumel.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Cancun, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Campeche to Cancun, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

The center of Hurricane Beryl made landfall on the coast of Mexico near Tulum on Friday morning. Beryl was a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale at the time of landfall. A small circular eye was present at the center of Beryl’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl. Storms near the core of Beryl’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Beryl was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 16.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 25.8. Hurricane Beryl was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Idalia when Idalia hit Florida in 2023.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that extends over the western Atlantic Ocean and southeastern U.S. The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Beryl will move across the northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula during the rest of Friday.

Hurricane Beryl will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula. Strong winds and heavy rain will occur in Quintana Roo and Yucatan. Beryl is capable of causing serious damage. Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations. Hurricane Beryl could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the portion of the coast north of Tulum.

Hurricane Beryl will weaken as it moves across the Yucatan Peninsula. Beryl will likely weaken to a tropical storm while it is over the Yucatan. Hurricane Beryl will move over the western Gulf of Mexico during the weekend. Beryl will move into an environment somewhat favorable for intensification when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico. Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the eastern part of an upper level low over the western Gulf of Mexico. The upper level low will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be enough to prevent strengthening. Beryl could could intensify back to a hurricane when it moves over the Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Beryl will move more toward the northwest during the weekend. Beryl could approach the coast of Texas on Sunday. Watches may be issued for the coast later on Friday or on Saturday.

Tropical Storm Alberto Brings Wind and Rain to Northern Mexico

Tropical Storm Alberto brought wind and rain to northern Mexico on Thursday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Alberto was located at latitude 22.3°N and longitude 98.3°W which put it about 25 miles (40 km) west of Tampico, Mexico and about 255 miles (410 km) south of Brownsville, Texas. Alberto was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Rio Grande River to Tecolutla, Mexico. The Tropical Storm Warning included Tampico, Mexico.

The center of Tropical Storm Alberto made landfall on the coast of Mexico near Tampico on Thursday morning. The strongest winds were occurring near the center of Alberto’s circulation. The distribution of winds in Tropical Storm Alberto was still asymmetrical at the time of landfall. The circulation around the northern side of Alberto’s circulation was interacting with the southern part of a strong high pressure system over the eastern U.S. The interaction of the two pressure systems was causing a large area of tropical storm force winds in the northern side of Tropical Storm Alberto. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 275 miles (445 km) in the northern side of Alberto’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the southern half of Alberto.

Tropical Storm Alberto will move around the southern side of a strong high pressure system over the eastern U.S. The high pressure system will steer Alberto toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Alberto will move steadily inland over northern Mexico.

Tropical Storm Alberto will weaken as it moves farther inland over northern Mexico. Alberto will continue to produce gusty winds along the coast of Texas and northern Mexico during the next few hours. Tropical Storm Alberto will also drop heavy rain on parts of northern Mexico and southern Texas. Up to an additional 5 inches (125 mm) of rain could fall on parts of south Texas. Flood Watches are in effect for parts of South Texas. Up to an additional 16 inches (400 mm) of rain could fall on parts of northern Mexico where the winds blow the air up the slopes of mountains. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. The heaviest rain is likely to fall in Tamaulipas.

Tropical Storm Alberto Strengthens Near Mexico

Tropical Storm Alberto strengthened on Wednesday evening as it neared the coast of Mexico. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Alberto was located at latitude 21.5°N and longitude 95.9°W which put it about 135 miles (220 km) east-southeast of Tampico, Mexico and about 320 miles (510 km) south-southeast of Brownsville, Texas. Alberto was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from San Luis Pass, Texas to Tecolutla, Mexico. The Tropical Storm Warning included Port O’Connor, Corpus Christi and Brownsville, Texas. The Tropical Storm Warning also included Tampico, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Alberto was getting stronger on Wednesday evening as it approached the coast of Mexico near Tampico. Thunderstorms near the center of Alberto’s circulation rose higher into the atmosphere. A band of thunderstorms wrapped around the southern and eastern side of the center of circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Alberto. Storms near the center of Alberto generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of winds in Tropical Storm Alberto was still asymmetrical. The circulation around the northern side of Alberto’s circulation was interacting with the southern part of a strong high pressure system over the eastern U.S. The interaction of the two pressure systems was causing a large area of tropical storm force winds in the northern side of Tropical Storm Alberto. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 460 miles (740 km) in the northern side of Alberto’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the southern half of Alberto.

Tropical Storm Alberto will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Alberto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the the center of an upper level ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico. The upper level winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Alberto is likely to intensify during the next few hours until the center makes landfall on the coast of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Alberto will produce gusty winds along the coast of Texas and northern Mexico. Alberto will also drop heavy rain on parts of northern Mexico and southern Texas. Up to 12 inches (300 mm) of rain could fall on parts of south Texas. Flood Watches were in effect for parts of South Texas. Up to 20 inches (500 mm) of rain could fall on parts of northern Mexico where the winds blow the air up the slopes of mountains.

Tropical Storm Alberto Forms over Western Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Storm Alberto formed over the western Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Alberto was located at latitude 22.2°N and longitude 95.0°W which put it about 185 miles (300 km) east of Tampico, Mexico and about 295 miles (480 km) south-southeast of Brownsville, Texas. Alberto was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from San Luis Pass, Texas to Tecolutla, Mexico. The Tropical Storm Warning included Corpus Christi and Brownsville, Texas. The Tropical Storm Warning also included Tampico, Mexico.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of a low pressure system previously designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone One on Wednesday morning. A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft was able to locate a well defined low level center of circulation and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Alberto.

The structure of Tropical Storm Alberto was beginning to resemble a typical tropical storm. Thunderstorms were forming near the center of Alberto’s circulation. A band of thunderstorms wrapped around the southern and eastern side of Tropical Storm Alberto. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Alberto’s circulation. Storms near the center of Alberto began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease.

Even though Tropical Storm Alberto was starting to look like a tropical storm, the distribution of winds was still asymmetrical. The circulation around the northern side of Alberto’s circulation was interacting with the southern part of a strong high pressure system over the eastern U.S. The interaction of the two pressure systems was causing the strongest winds to occur in the northern side of Tropical Storm Alberto. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 400 miles (645 km) north of the center of Alberto’s circulation. An anemometer at Garden Banks 783 (KGBK) measured a sustained wind speed of 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and wind gusts of 50 m.p.h (80 km/h). The anemometer is at a height of 58.2 meters above sea level. The winds in the southern part of Alberto’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Alberto will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Alberto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the the center of an upper level ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico. The upper level winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Alberto will intensify during the next 12 hours. Alberto could undergo a brief period of rapid intensification when it approaches the coast of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Alberto will move south of a strong high pressure system over the eastern U.S. The high pressure system will steer Alberto toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Alberto will make landfall on the coast of northern Mexico on Wednesday night. The center of Alberto will make landfall near Tampico, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Alberto will produce gusty winds along the coast of Texas and northern Mexico. Alberto will also drop heavy rain on parts of northern Mexico and southern Texas. Up to 12 inches (300 mm) of rain could fall on parts of south Texas. Flood Watches were in effect for parts of South Central, Southeast and South Texas. Up to 20 inches (500 mm) of rain could fall on parts of northern Mexico where the winds blow the air up the slopes of mountains.

Easterly winds blowing around the northern side of Tropical Storm Alberto will blow the water toward the coast of Texas and northern Mexico. Alberto will cause a storm surge of up to six feet (two meters) where the winds blow the water toward the coast. Tropical Storm Alberto was already causing some flooding along parts of the coast of Texas. A tide station at San Luis Pass, Texas (LUIT2) was reporting a water level of 5.21 feet (1.59 meters). That water level is associated with Major Flooding. A tide station at Galveston Railroad Bridge (GRRT2) was reporting a water level of 4.77 feet (1.45 meters). That water level is associated with Major Flooding.

Tropical Storm Forming over Western Gulf of Mexico

A tropical storm is forming over the western Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday morning. The low pressure system is currently designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone One. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone One was located at latitude 22.7°N and longitude 94.3°W which put it about 235 miles (380 km) east-southeast of La Pesca, Mexico and about 295 miles (475 km) southeast of Brownsville, Texas. The low pressure system was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from San Luis Pass, Texas to Puerto de Altamira, Mexico. The Tropical Storm Warning includes Corpus Christi and Brownsville, Texas.

A low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico, currently designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone One, on Wednesday morning is beginning to develop a structure more like a tropical cyclone. Thunderstorms are staring to develop near the center of the low pressure system. A band of thunderstorms wraps around the southern and eastern side of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the middle of the low pressure system.

The distribution of winds around Potential Tropical Cyclone One is still asymmetrical. The winds near the middle of the low pressure system are relatively weak. The strongest winds are occurring in a band of thunderstorms about 400 miles (645 km) north of the middle of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Some of the winds in that band of storms are blowing at tropical storm force. An anemometer at Garden Banks 783 (KGBK) is measuring a sustained wind speed of 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and wind gusts of 50 m.p.h (80 km/h). The anemometer is at a height of 58.2 meters above sea level. The winds in the rest of the low pressure system are blowing at less than tropical storm force.

The low pressure system will move through an environment favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the the center of an upper level ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico. The upper level winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Potential Tropical Cyclone One is forecast to develop into a tropical storm during the next 24 hours. In order to be classified as a tropical cyclone, a distinct low level center of circulation will have to form. Thunderstorms will have to develop and to persist near the low level center. The strongest winds will need to occur near the low level center of circulation in order for Potential Tropical Cyclone One to be classified as a tropical storm.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move south of a strong high pressure system over the eastern U.S. The strong high pressure system will block Potential Tropical Cyclone One and the high pressure system will prevent the low pressure system from moving toward the north. The high pressure system will steer the low pressure system toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone One could approach the coast of northern Mexico and southern Texas on Wednesday evening. The center of the low pressure system is likely to make landfall between Tampico and La Pesca, Mexico

Potential Tropical Cyclone One is likely to be a tropical storm when it approaches the coast. The low pressure system will produce gusty winds along the coast of Texas and northern Mexico. Potential Tropical Cyclone One will also drop heavy rain on parts of northern Mexico and southern Texas. Up to 12 inches (300 mm) of rain could fall on parts of south Texas. Flood Watches were in effect for parts of South Central, Southeast and South Texas. Up to 20 inches (500 mm) of rain could fall on parts of northern Mexico where the winds blow the air up the slopes of mountains.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One will cause a storm surge of up to four feet (one meter) where the winds blow the water toward the coast. The water is already causing some flooding along parts of the coast of Texas.

Tropical Storm Warnings Issued for South Texas and Northern Mexico

Tropical Storm Warnings were issued for the coast of south Texas and northern Mexico early on Tuesday. A low pressure system over the southern Gulf of Mexico was designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone One. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone One was located at latitude 21.5°N and longitude 92.8°W which put it about 355 miles (575 km) east-southeast of La Pesca, Mexico and about 420 miles (680 km) southeast of Brownsville, Texas. The low pressure system was moving toward the north at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Port O’Connor, Texas to Puerto de Altamira, Mexico. The Tropical Storm Warning included Corpus Christi and Brownsville, Texas.

A large low pressure system was over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday morning. The low pressure system did not exhibit the usual structural features of a tropical cyclone. So, the U.S. National Hurricane Center continued to designate the system as Potential Tropical Cyclone One.

The large low pressure system still did not have a well defined, distinct low level center of circulation. There were few thunderstorms in the broad region around the middle of the low pressure system. The surface winds were relatively weak near the middle of the low pressure system. The strongest winds were occurring in a band of thunderstorms about 285 miles (460 km) north of the middle of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Some winds in that area were blowing at tropical storm force. Elsewhere in the low pressure system, the winds were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

The low pressure system will move through an environment favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the the center of an upper level ridge centered near the Yucatan Peninsula. The upper level winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Potential Tropical Cyclone One could develop into a tropical storm during the next 24 hours. In order to be classified as a tropical cyclone, a distinct low level center of circulation would have to form. Thunderstorms would have to develop and to persist near the low level center. The strongest winds would need to occur near the low level center of circulation in order for Potential Tropical Cyclone One to be classified as a tropical storm.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move around the northern part of a large counterclockwise circulation called a Central American Gyre (CAG) during the next 12 hours. The Central American Gyre will steer the low pressure system toward the north-northwest on Tuesday. A strong high pressure system over the eastern U.S. will block Potential Tropical Cyclone One from moving toward the north on Wednesday. The high pressure system will turn the low pressure system toward the west-northwest. On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone One could approach the coast of northern Mexico or southern Texas on Wednesday evening.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One could be a tropical storm when it approaches the coast. That is the reason the Tropical Storm Warnings were issued. Even if Potential Tropical Cyclone One does not develop into a tropical storm, it will drop heavy rain on parts of northern Mexico and southern Texas. The low pressure system could also cause a storm surge of up to four feet (one meter) where the winds blow the water toward the coast.

Flood Watches were in effect for portions of South Central and Southeast Texas.

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