Tag Archives: Cocos Islands

Tropical Cyclone Vince Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Vince intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean southwest of the Cocos Islands during Monday night.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vince was located at latitude 18.6°S and longitude 89.6°E which put the center about 595 miles (960 km) southwest of the Cocos Islands.  Vince was moving toward the southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 958 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Vince intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane during Monday night.  Vince appeared to go through an eyewall replacement cycle after it intensified.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the original small eye at the center of Vince’s circulation.  The small eye dissipated and a larger outer eye formed.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Vince weakened after the eyewalll replacement cycle.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the new larger eye.  The strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone Vince was asymmetrical.  Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of Vince’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Vince consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Vince generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.

The eyewall replacement cycle caused the size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Vince to increase.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Vince’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Vince.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Vince was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.3.  Tropical Cyclone Vince was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Delta when Delta hit Southwest Louisiana in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Vince will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Vince will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Vince’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  Even though Tropical Cyclone Vince will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours, Vince is likely to weaken due to the effects of the eyewall replacement cycle.

Tropical Cyclone Vince will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Vince toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Vince will pass far to the south of Diego Garcia later this week.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Taliah intensified as it moved farther away from Western Australia.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Taliah was located at latitude 15.6°S and longitude 110.4°E which put the center about 515 miles (830 km) north-northwest of Exmouth, Australia.  Taliah was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Faida Brings Wind and Rain to Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Faida brought wind and rain to Madagascar on Monday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Faida was located at latitude 18.5°S and longitude 49.7°E which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) southeast of the Toamasina, Madagascar.  Faida was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Even though the center of Tropical Cyclone Faida was just off the east coast of Madagascar on Monday night, bands in the western side of of Faida’s circulation were already over land.  Those bands brought strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of northern and central Madagascar.

The strongest winds and heaviest rain were in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Faida.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the western side of Faida’s circulation.  The winds in the eastern half of Tropical Cyclone Faida were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Faida will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean and southern Africa.  The high pressure system will steer Faida toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Faida will move across Madagascar during the next 36 hours.  The center of Faida’s circulation will pass near Toamasina and Antananarivo.

Tropical Cyclone Faida will continue to drop heavy rain over parts of northern and central Madagascar.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Vince intensified southwest of the Cocos Islands and Tropical Cyclone Taliah continued to spin northwest of Australia.

At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vince was located at latitude 17.3°S and longitude 91.5°E which put the center about 465 miles (750 km) southwest of the Cocos Islands.  Vince was moving toward the west-southwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Taliah was located at latitude 15.5°S and longitude 112.4°E which put the center about 485 miles (780 km) north of Exmouth, Australia.  Taliah was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

Taliah Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Taliah strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia on Monday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Taliah was located at latitude 15.2°S and longitude 113.9°E which put the center about 500 miles (800 km) north of Exmouth, Australia.  Taliah was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Taliah strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Monday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western and northern sides of the center of Taliah’s circulation.  Even though Tropical Cyclone Taliah strengthened, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  Most thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western and northern parts of Taliah’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern and southern parts of Tropical Cyclone Taliah consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Taliah generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km/h) in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Taliah.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) in the southern part of Taliah’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Taliah.

Tropical Cyclone Taliah will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Taliah will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge west of Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Taliah’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Taliah is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Taliah will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that extends from Australia to the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Talia toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Taliah will move farther away from Western Australia.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Vince intensified south of the Cocos Islands.  4:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vince was located at latitude 16.7°S and longitude 94.3°E which put the center about 355 miles (525 km) south-southwest of the Cocos Islands.  Vince was moving toward the west-southwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

Tropical Cyclone 05S Moves South of Cocos Islands

Tropical Cyclone 05S moved south of the Cocos Islands in the South Indian Ocean on Friday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone 05S was located at latitude 14.2°S and longitude 96.6°E which put the center about 125 miles (200 km) south of the Cocos Islands.  Tropical Cyclone 05S was moving toward the south at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Cyclone 05S was moving under the western end of an upper level ridge that extended from Australia to the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge was producing northeasterly winds that were blowing toward the top of the tropical cyclone.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone 05S to be asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western and southern parts of the tropical cyclone.  Bands in the northern and eastern parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The distribution of winds speeds around Tropical Cyclone 05S was also symmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) in the southwestern quadrant of the tropical cyclone.  The winds in the other parts of Tropical Cyclone 05S were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone 05S will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical cyclone will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will continue to move under the western part of an upper level ridge that extends from Australia to the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will continue to produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Cyclone 05S.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone 05S is likely to start to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 05S will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone 05S will move farther away from the Cocos Islands on Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone 05S Forms West of Cocos Islands

Tropical Cyclone 05S formed over the South Indian Ocean west of the Cocos Islands on Thursday evening.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone 05S was located at latitude 12.1°S and longitude 95.2°E which put the center about 140 miles (225 km) east of the Cocos Islands.  Tropical Cyclone 05S was moving toward the east at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean west of the Cocos Islands strengthened on Thursday evening and the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center designated the system as Tropical Cyclone 05S.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as a Tropical Low.

The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone 05S was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of the tropical cyclone.  Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone 05S consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west and south of the tropical cyclone.

The distribution of winds speeds around Tropical Cyclone 05S was also symmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) in the western half of the tropical cyclone.  The winds in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone 05S were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone 05S will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical cyclone will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that extends from Australia to the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Cyclone 05S.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone 05S could intensify during the next 24 hours, if the upper level winds do not get any stronger.

Tropical Cyclone 05S will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone 05S will pass southwest of the Cocos Islands on Friday.

Tropical Cyclone Robyn Weakens Over South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Robyn weakened over the South Indian Ocean on Friday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Robyn was located at latitude 18.9°S and longitude 94.5°E which put the center about 485 miles (780 km) south-southwest of the Cocos Islands.  Robyn was moving toward the southeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

The western end of an upper level ridge that was west of Australia produced strong northwesterly winds that blew across the top of Tropical Cyclone Robyn.  Those strong winds created strong vertical wind shear.  The strong northwesterly winds also blew the tops off of all of the thunderstorms in Robyn’s circulation.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Robyn consisted entirely of bands of showers and lower clouds.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Robyn was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Robyn’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Robyn will move through an environment that will continue to be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Robyn will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25°C.  The western end of the upper level ridge that is west of Australia will continue produce strong northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of the Robyn’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  The combination of strong vertical wind shear and marginal Sea Surface Temperatures is likely to cause Tropical Cyclone Robyn to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Robyn will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is west of Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Robyn toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Robyn will move farther away from the Cocos Islands.

Tropical Cyclone Robyn Spins Southwest of Cocos Islands

Tropical Cyclone Robyn was spinning over the South Indian Ocean southwest of the Cocos Islands on Thursday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Robyn was located at latitude 16.6°S and longitude 91.2°E which put the center about 485 miles (780 km) southwest of the Cocos Islands.  Robyn was moving toward the south-southeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Robyn strengthened on Thursday as it spun over the South Indian Ocean southwest of the Cocos Islands.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Robyn’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Robyn.  Storms near the center of Robyn generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone.

The distribution of winds speeds in Tropical Cyclone Robyn became more symmetrical on Thursday.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Robyn’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Robyn will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Robyn will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge that is west of Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The combination of moderate vertical wind shear and marginal Sea Surface Temperatures is likely to cause Tropical Cyclone Robyn to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Robyn will move around the southwestern end of a high pressure system that is west of Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Robyn toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Robyn will move farther away from the Cocos Islands.

Tropical Cyclone 03S Forms West of Cocos Islands

Tropical Cyclone 03S formed over the South Indian Ocean west of the Cocos Islands on Wednesday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 03S was located at latitude 13.1°S and longitude 91.2°E which put the center about 385 miles (620 km) west of the Cocos Islands.  The tropical cyclone was moving toward the south-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean west of the Cocos Islands strengthened on Wednesday and the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center designated the system as Tropical Cyclone 03S.  The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone 03S was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of the tropical cyclone’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern side of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms west of the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone 03S was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the southern side of the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone 03S.

Tropical Cyclone 03S will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical cyclone will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge that is west of Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone 03S could strengthen during the next 24 hours if the upper level winds do not get any stronger.

Tropical Cyclone 03S will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is west of Australia.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the south-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone 03S will move farther away from the Cocos Islands.

Tropical Cyclone Neville Weakens Over South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Neville weakened over the South Indian Ocean on Sunday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Neville was located at latitude 23.5°S and longitude 88.8°E which put it about 930 miles (1500 km) south-southwest of the Cocos Islands. Neville was moving toward the southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Neville was weakening rapidly over the South Indian Ocean on Sunday. Neville was under the eastern part of an upper level trough. The upper level trough was producing strong northwesterly winds that were blowing across the top of Neville’s circulation. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear was making the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Neville asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were still occurring in the southeastern quadrant of Neville’s circulation. Bands in the other parts of Tropical Cyclone Neville consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Neville will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Neville will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25°C. The upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will continue to produce strong northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Neville’s circulation. Those winds will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Neville will weaken during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Neville will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Neville toward the west-southwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Neville will remain far southeast of Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Neville Passes South of Cocos Islands

Tropical Cyclone Neville passed south of the Cocos Islands on Saturday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Neville was located at latitude 20.8°S and longitude 93.1°E which put it about 630 miles (1015 km) south-southwest of the Cocos, Islands. Neville was moving toward the west-southwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Neville was weakening as it moved over the South Indian Ocean south of the Cocos Islands on Saturday. The distributions of thunderstorms and clouds in Neville was becoming asymmetrical. Some drier air appeared to be entering the northeastern part of Neville’s circulation. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern and western parts of Tropical Cyclone Neville. Bands in the northern and eastern parts of Neville’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Storms near the center of Tropical Cyclone Neville still generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south of the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Neville’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Neville will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Neville will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However, an upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Neville’s circulation. Those winds will also cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Tropical Cyclone Neville will weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Neville will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Neville toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Neville will remain far southeast of Diego Garcia.