Tag Archives: HWISI

Tropical Cyclone Narelle Hits Australia’s Northern Territory

Tropical Cyclone Narelle hit the Northern Territory in Australia on Saturday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle was located at latitude 13.2°S and longitude 136.2°E which put the center about 40 miles (65 km) northwest of Alyangula, Australia.  Narelle was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning that is in effect for the portion of the coast from Milingimbi to Nathan River.  The Warning includes Nhulunbuy.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the King George River to the border between the Northern Territory and Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle intensified before it made landfall in the Northern Territory.  A small circular eye was present at the center of Narelle’s circulation at the time of landfall.   The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Narelle increased a little when Narelle intensified.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Narelle’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Narelle was 13.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 15.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.4.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle was similar in intensity to Hurricane Beryl when Beryl hit Texas in 2024.  Narelle was bigger than Beryl was.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Narelle toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move across the Northern Territory.  The center of Narelle will pass south of Katherine in 12 hours.  The center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle will be south of Darwin in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will weaken steadily as it moves across the Northern Territory.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Northern Territory.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for the Top End of Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle Hits Cape York Peninsula

Tropical Cyclone Narelle hit the Cape York Peninsula northwest of Cape Melville on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle was located at latitude 13.4°S and longitude 142.5°E which put the center about 50 miles (85 km) northwest of Coen, Australia.  Narelle was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 951 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for the east coast of the Cape York Peninsula that is in effect from Lockhart River to Cape Melville.  The Warning includes Coen.  A Warning is also in effect for the west coast of the Cape York Peninsula from Mapoon to Pormpuraaw.  That Warning includes Weipa.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the west coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria from south of Nhulunbuy to Port McArthur.

Even though Tropical Cyclone Narelle weakened after it moved over the Cape York Peninsula, the circulation around Narelle was still intact.  A well defined center of circulation was visible on satellite images.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Narelle’s circulation.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Narelle was still very symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Narelle’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 165 miles (265 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Narelle is 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 20.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 42.1. Tropical Cyclone Narelle is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Milton when Milton hit Florida in 2024.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will continue to weaken during the next few hours while the center is over the Cape York Peninsula.  Narelle will move into an environment favorable for intensification when it moves over the Gulf of Carpentaria.  Narelle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the northern part of Australia.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle is likely to intensify again when it moves over the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Narelle toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move over the Gulf of Carpentaria in a few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to the northern part of the Cape York Peninsula during the next few hours.  Narelle will be capable of causing major damage.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for parts of the Cape York Peninsula and the North Tropical Coast of Queensland.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle Intensifies to Equivalent of Cat. 4 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Narelle intensified to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle was located at latitude 13.6°S and longitude 147.2°E which put the center about 265 miles (425 km) north-northeast of Cairns, Australia.  Narelle was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for the east coast of the Cape York Peninsula that is in effect from Lockhart River to Cape Tribulation.  The Warning includes Coen and Cooktown.  A Warning is also in effect for the west coast of the Cape York Peninsula from Mapoon to Pormpuraaw.  That Warning includes Weipa.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the west coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria from south of Nhulunbuy to Port Mcarthur.

A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was present at the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Narelle’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Narelle generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Cyclone Narelle was symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Narelle’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Narelle is 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 17.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 42.2.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle is similar in intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.  Narelle is bigger than Harvey was.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Narelle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the northern part of the Coral Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle is likely to intensify during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over the Coral Sea.   The high pressure system will steer Narelle toward the west during the next 24 hours.   On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Narelle will approach the coast of Queensland near Cape Melville in 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will bring very strong winds and heavy rain to the northern part of the Cape York Peninsula later this week.  Narelle will be capable of causing severe damage.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle could also cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along the coast near where the center of circulation makes landfall.

Flood Watches are in effect for parts of the Cape York Peninsula and the North Tropical Coast of Queensland.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle Prompts Warning for Cape York Peninsula

The risks posed by Tropical Cyclone Narelle prompted the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to issue a Warning for part of the Cape York Peninsula on Wednesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle was located at latitude 13.1°S and longitude 149.9°E which put the center about 420 miles (675 km) northeast of Cairns, Australia.  Narelle was moving toward the west-southwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for the coast of Queensland that was in effect from Lockhart River to Cape Tribulation.

A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Weipa to Kowanyama.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle was strengthening as it moved toward the coast of Queensland.

A small circular eye was present at the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Narelle’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Narelle generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Narelle was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Narelle’s circulation.  Winds to  tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Narelle was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.0.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Narelle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the northern part of the Coral Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Narelle could intensify rapidly at times.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane by Thursday.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over the Coral Sea.   The high pressure system will steer Narelle toward the west during the next 24 hours.   On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Narelle will approach the coast of Queensland near Cape Melville in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the northern part of the Cape York Peninsula later this week.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for parts of the Cape York Peninsula and the North Tropical Coast of Queensland.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani Clips Mozambique

The western side of Tropical Cyclone Gezani clipped the coast of Mozambique near Inhambane on Friday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani was located at latitude 24.4°S and longitude 35.8°E which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) southeast of Inhambane, Mozambique.  Gezani was moving toward the south-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani was the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale when it clipped the coast of Mozambique on Friday night.  A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) was present at the center of Gezani’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.   Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Gezani’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Gezani generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Gezani was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Gezani’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Gezani was 19.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 32.1.  Tropical Cyclone Gezani was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sally when Sally hit Alabama in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani will move through an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Gezani will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough that is over South Africa.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Gezani’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Tropical Cyclone Gezani is likely to maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough will start to steer Tropical Cyclone Gezani toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Gezani will start to move away from the coast of central Mozambique on Saturday.

Bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Gezani circulation will continue to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the region near Inhambane during the next few hours.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani Nears Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Gezani was nearing the coast of Mozambique on Friday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani was located at latitude 22.8°S and longitude 36.3°E which put the center about 130 miles (210 km) north-northeast of Inhambane, Mozambique.  Gezani was moving toward the southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 964 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani was strengthening on Friday morning as it neared the coast of Mozambique.  A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was present at the center of Gezani’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Gezani’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Gezani generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Gezani increased a little when Gezani strengthened.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Gezani’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Gezani was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 31.9.  Tropical Cyclone Gezani was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sally when Sally hit Alabama in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Gezani will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Mozambique Channel.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Gezani is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.  Gezani could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Friday.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Gezani toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani will pass very close to the coast of central Mozambique during the next 24 hours.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani is currently forecast to pass just to the east of the coast of central Mozambique.  Bands in the western half of Gezani’s circulation could bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the region near Inhambane.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  If Tropical Cyclone Gezani moves a little to the west of the forecast track, then the strongest part of Gezani’s circulation could hit the area around Inhambane.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani Intensifies to Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Gezani intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane east of Madagascar on Tuesday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani was located at latitude 18.1°S and longitude 49.5°E which put the center about 105 miles (165 km) east of Toamasina, Madagascar.  Gezani was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane east of Toamasina, Madagascar on Tuesday morning.  A small circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Gezani’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Gezani generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The small circulation around Tropical Cyclone Gezani was very symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Gezani’s circulation.   Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Gezani is 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 11.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 34.6. Tropical Cyclone Gezani is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Dennis when Dennis hit Northwest Florida in 2005.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani will move through an environment that will be very favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Gezani will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Gezani could continue to intensify during the next few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Gezani toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Gezani will reach the east coast of Madagascar near Toamasina in a few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani will be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it hits the east coast of Madagascar.  Gezani will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to central Madagascar. Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Gezani will be capable of causing major damage to central Madagascar.  Widespread outages of electricity are likely.  Tropical Cyclone Gezani could also cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along parts of the east coast of Madagascar near Toamasina.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Cat. 2 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Gezani rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale east of Madagascar on Monday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani was located at latitude 18.2°S and longitude 51.6°E which put the center about 245 miles (395 km) east of Toamasina, Madagascar.  Gezani was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Monday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Gezani’s circulation.  A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Gezani’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Gezani generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Gezani was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Gezani’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Gezani is 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 9.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 27.6.  Tropical Cyclone Gezani is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani will move through an environment that will be very favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Gezani will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Gezani will intensify during the next 12 hours. Gezani could continue to intensify rapidly.  Tropical Cyclone Gezani could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Gezani toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Gezani will reach the east coast of Madagascar near Toamasina in 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it hits the east coast of Madagascar.  Gezani will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to central Madagascar.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Gezani will be capable of causing major damage to central Madagascar.  Tropical Cyclone Gezani could also cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along parts of the east coast of Madagascar near Toamasina.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Fytia rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane before it hit the west coast of Madagascar on Friday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 45.2°E which put the center about 25 miles (40 km) west of Soalala, Madagascar.  Fytia was moving toward the east-southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia continued to intensify rapidly on Friday right up to the time it hit the west coast of Madagascar.  A small circular eye was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Fytia’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Fytia generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fytia was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Fytia’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Fytia was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HWISI) was 9.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 30.0 Tropical Cyclone Fytia was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fytia toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fytia will across central Madagascar on Saturday.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia made landfall on the west coast of Madagascar west of Soalala.  The center of Fytia’s circulation is likely to pass between Antananarivo and Toamasina on Saturday night.  Tropical Cyclone Fytia will weaken as it moves across Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of west central Madagascar and to central Madagascar.  Fytia could cause major damage in those areas.   Heavy rain is very likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Fytia could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along parts of the west coast of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Fytia rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Mozambique Channel early on Friday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia was located at latitude 15.5°S and longitude 43.0°E which put the center about 240 miles (385 km) west of Mahajanga, Madagascar.  Fytia was moving toward the east at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon early on Friday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Fytia’s circulation.  A small circular eye formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Fytia’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Fytia generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fytia was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Fytia’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Fytia was 13.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HWISI) was 9.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 23.2  Tropical Cyclone Fytia was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Hanna when Hanna hit South Texas in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Fytia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Mozambique Channel.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Fytia will intensify during the next 12 hours.  Fytia could rapidly intensify to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fytia toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fytia will reach the west coast of Madagascar between Soalala and Besalampy on Friday night.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of west central Madagascar and to central Madagascar.  Fytia could cause major damage in those areas.  Heavy rain is very likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Fytia could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along parts of the west coast of Madagascar.