Tag Archives: HWISI

Hurricane Erin Moves North of Dominican Republic

Hurricane Erin moved north of the Dominican Republic on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Erin was located at latitude 21.7°N and longitude 68.5°W which put the center about 200 miles (320 km) east of Grand Turk Island.  Erin was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 946 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Turks and Caicos.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Southeast Bahamas.

The inner end of a rainband wrapped around an existing eye and eyewall in the core of Hurricane Erin.  Concentric eyewalls formed.  Hurricane Erin weakened as the inflow became concentrated in the outer eyewall and the inner eyewall started to weaken.  The inner eyewall was still visible in satellite and radar images.  The presence of concentric eyewalls means that Hurricane Erin is still in an eyewall replacement cycle.

The outer eyewall in Hurricane Erin has a diameter of 45 miles (75 km).  Bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the core of Erin’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Erin are generating strong upper level divergence that is pumping mass away from the hurricane.

The formation of concentric eyewalls increased the size of the circulation around Hurricane Erin.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Erin’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of Hurricane Erin.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Erin is 23.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 38.2.  Hurricane Erin is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey in 2017.

Hurricane Erin will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Erin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The eyewall replacement cycle is likely to prevent Hurricane Erin from intensifying quickly.  However, once the inner eyewall dissipates and the outer eyewall starts to contract, Erin could strengthen rapidly.

Hurricane Erin will move around the southwestern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Erin toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Storm Erin will pass northeast of the Turks and Caicos and the Southeast Bahamas on Monday.

Bands in the western side of Hurricane Erin could bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the Turks and Caicos and to the Southeast Bahamas.  Bands in the southern side of Erin’s circulation could drop heavy rain on parts of Haiti and the Dominican Republic.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Hurricane Erin Rapidly Intensifies to Cat. 5

Hurricane Erin rapidly intensified to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Saturday morning.   At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Erin was located at latitude 19.7°N and longitude 62.8°W which put the center about 105 miles (165 km) north of Anguilla.    Erin was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 917 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for  St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, and Sint Maarten.

Hurricane Erin rapidly intensified to a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Saturday morning.  A small circular eye with a diameter of 6 miles (10 km) was at the center of Erin’s circulation.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds winds occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Erin.  Storms near the center of Erin generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Hurricane Erin is small.  Winds to hurricane force extend out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Erin’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out 140 miles (220 km) in the northern side of Hurricane Erin.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out 60 miles in the southern half of Erin’s circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) is 35.0. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 9.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 44.2. Hurricane Erin is similar in intensity to Hurricane Michael in 2018.  Erin is smaller than Michael was.

Hurricane Erin will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Erin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Erin is likely to continue to intensify during the next few hours.  However, it is likely that the inner end of a rainband will wrap around the existing eye and eyewall.  That would create concentric eyewalls.  It would also start an eyewall replacement cycle.  An eyewall replacement cycle would cause Hurricane Erin to weaken, at least temporarily.

Hurricane Erin will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Erin toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Storm Erin will pass north of the Puerto Rico on Saturday night.

Bands in the southern side of Hurricane Erin are likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Northern Leeward Islands and to the Virgin Islands.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  Bands feeding into the southern side of Hurricane Erin could also drop heavy rain on Puerto Rico.

A Flood Watch is in effect for Puerto Rico.

Hurricane Erin Rapidly Intensifies to Cat. 4

Hurricane Erin rapidly intensified to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Saturday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Erin was located at latitude 19.6°N and longitude 62.0°W which put the center about 120 miles (195 km) northeast of Anguilla.   Erin was moving toward the west-northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 935 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for  St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, and Sint Maarten.

Hurricane Erin rapidly intensified to a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale early on Saturday morning.  A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Erin’s circulation.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds winds occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Erin.  Storms near the center of Erin generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Hurricane Erin is small.  Winds to hurricane force extend out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Erin’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out 130 miles (210 km) in the northern side of Hurricane Erin.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out 60 miles in the southern half of Erin’s circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) is 29.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 8.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 38.3.  Hurricane Erin is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Charley in 2004.

Hurricane Erin will move through an environment that will be very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Erin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Erin will intensity during the next 24 hours.  Erin could strengthen to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Hurricane Erin will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Erin toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Storm Erin will pass north of the Puerto Rico on Sunday.

Bands in the southern side of Hurricane Erin are likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Northern Leeward Islands.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  Bands feeding into the southern side of Hurricane Erin could also drop heavy rain on Puerto Rico.

A Flood Watch is in effect for Puerto Rico.

Typhoon Danas Hits Taiwan

Typhoon Danas hit Taiwan on Sunday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Danas was located at latitude 23.5°N and longitude 120.0°E which put the center about 75 miles (120 km) southwest of Taichung, Taiwan.  Danas was moving toward the northeast at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 958 mb.

Typhoon Danas rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it approached Taiwan on Sunday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Danas’ circulation.  A circular eye with a diameter of 16 miles (26 km) formed at the center of Typhoon Danas.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Danas’ circulation.

The size of the circulation around Typhoon Danas increased when Danas rapidly intensified.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Danas’ circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) in the eastern side of Typhoon Danas.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) in the western side of Danas.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Danas is 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 32.2.  Typhoon Danas is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sally when Sally hit Alabama in 2020.

Typhoon Danas will bring strong, gusty winds and heavy rain to Taiwan.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods and mudslides.  Widespread outages of electricity are possible.  Typhoon Danas could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along parts of the coast of Taiwan.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Mun continued to churn east of Japan.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Mun was located at latitude 33.9°N and longitude 149.4°E which put the center about 545 miles (875 km) east of Tokyo, Japan.  Mun was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Flossie Intensifies to a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Flossie intensified to a major hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Tuesday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Flossie was located at latitude 18.2°N and longitude 107.4°W which put the center about 365 miles (585 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.   Flossie was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h).   The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico.

Hurricane Flossie continued to intensify on Tuesday evening.  A circular eye was at the center of Flossie’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Flossie.  Storms near the center of Flossie generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane in all directions.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Flossie was relatively small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Flossie’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Hurricane Flossie.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Flossie is 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 8.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 28.9.  Hurricane Flossie is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Hurricane Flossie will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Flossie will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over Mexico and the adjacent part of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Flossie could continue to intensify during the next 12 hours.  Flossie will move over cooler water later in Wednesday.  Hurricane Flossie will start to weaken when it moves over cooler water.

Hurricane Flossie will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer the Flossie toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Flossie will start to move farther away from the coast of southwestern Mexico.  Flossie will move south of Baja California on Wednesday night.

Bands in the northeastern side of Hurricane Flossie will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of the coast of southwestern Mexico.  The heaviest rain will fall in parts of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Errol Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Errol rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia on Wednesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Errol was located at latitude 14.2°S and longitude 118.9°E which put the center about 325 miles (520 km) northwest of Broome, Australia.  Errol was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h).   The minimum surface pressure was 919 mb.

A Watch is in effect for the coast of Western Australia from Kuri Bay to Broome.  The Watch includes Derby.

Tropical Cyclone Errol rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Wednesday.  A very small circular eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) was at the center of Errol’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Errol.  Storms near the core of Errol generated upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Errol increased while Errol rapidly intensified.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Errol’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Errol.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Errol is 35.0.  The Hurricane Size index (HSI) is 12.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 47.8.  Tropical Cyclone Errol is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Michael when Michael hit Northwest Florida in 2018.

Tropical Cyclone Errol will move through an environment favorable for a powerful tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Errol will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over Australia and the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Errol could continue to intensify during the next 24 hours unless an eyewall replacement cycle occurs.  If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls could cause Errol to weaken.  An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will approach Tropical Cyclone Errol on Thursday.  The upper level trough will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  More vertical wind shear will cause Errol to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Errol will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Errol toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Errol will remain north of Western Australia during the next day or so.  The upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will cause Errol to start to move back toward the southeast on Thursday.

Tropical Cyclone Errol Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Errol rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia during Tuesday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Errol was located at latitude 14.2°S and longitude 119.1°E which put the center about 325 miles (520 km) northwest of Broome, Australia. Errol was moving toward the west-southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 940 mb.

A Watch is in effect for the coast of Western Australia from Kuri Bay to Broome.  The Watch includes Derby.

Tropical Cyclone Errol rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a  major hurricane during Tuesday night.  A very small circular eye with a diameter of 8 miles (13 km) was at the center of Errol’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Errol.  Storms near the core of Errol generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Errol was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Errol’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Errol.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Errol is 28.3.  The Hurricane Size index (HSI) is 7.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 35.5  Tropical Cyclone Errol is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Charley when Charley hit Southwest Florida in 2004.

Tropical Cyclone Errol will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Errol will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over Australia and the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Errol could continue to intensify during the next 24 hours unless an eyewall replacement cycle occurs.  If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls could cause Errol to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Errol will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Errol toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Errol will remain north of Western Australia during the next day or so.  Errol could start to move back toward the southeast on Thursday.

Tropical Cyclone Courtney Equivalent of Cat. 4 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Courtney was the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the South Indian Ocean on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Courtney was located at latitude 19.9°S and longitude 89.1°E which put the center about 715 miles (1150 km) southwest of the Cocos Islands.  Courtney was moving toward the southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 939 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Courtney strengthened on Saturday.  Courtney was the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  A small circular eye was present at the center of Courtney’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Courtney’s circulation.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Courtney was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Courtney’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Courtney.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Courtney was 29.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 40.6.

Tropical Cyclone Courtney will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Courtney will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Courtney’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Tropical Cyclone Courtney will weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.

Tropical Cyclone Courtney will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Courtney toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Courtney will move farther away from the Cocos Islands.

Tropical Cyclone Jude Hits Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Jude hit Mozambique on Sunday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude was located at latitude 15.2°S and longitude 39.5°E which put the center about 70 miles (110 km) southwest of Nacala, Mozambique.  Jude was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Jude hit the coast of Mozambique just to the south of Nacala on Sunday night.  Jude was the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon at the time of landfall.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) at the time of landfall.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Jude was 13.9 at the time of landfall.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 27.9.  Tropical Cyclone Jude was similar in intensity to Hurricane Hanna when Hanna hit south Texas in 2020. Jude was larger than Hanna was.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jude remains well organized even though the center of Jude’s circulation has been over land for a few hours.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude.  Storms near the center of circulation continue to generate upper level divergence that is pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jude continues to be symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Jude’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the Mozambique Channel.  The high pressure system will steer Jude toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Jude will move farther inland over northern Mozambique.  Jude could turn toward the south during the middle of the week.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of northern Mozambique.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Jude will weaken gradually while the center is over land.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Ivone was passing far to the south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ivone was located at latitude 19.4°S and longitude 81.9°E which put the center about 1060 miles (1660 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Ivone was moving toward the south-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jude Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Jude intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it neared the coast of Mozambique on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude was located at latitude 14.9°S and longitude 40.8°E which put the center about 40 miles (65 km) east-southeast of Nacala, Mozambique.  Jude was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jude rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it neared the coast of Mozambique on Sunday.  A small circular eye formed at the center of Jude’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude.  Storms near the center of Jude generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jude was symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Jude’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Jude is 13.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 27.9.  Tropical Cyclone Jude is similar in intensity to Hurricane Hanna when Hanna hit south Texas in 2020.  Jude is larger than Hanna was.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Jude will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Jude will intensify during the next few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the Mozambique Channel.  The high pressure system will steer Jude toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude will reach the coast of Mozambique near Nacala in a few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it reaches Mozambique.  Jude will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Mozambique.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods.  Tropical Cyclone Jude will also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast of Mozambique.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Ivone continued to spin far to the southeast of Diego Garcia.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ivone was located at latitude 17.8°S and longitude 82.9°E which put the center about 1005 miles (1625 km) southeast of Diego Garcia.  Ivone was moving toward the south-southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.