Tag Archives: Mexico

Alvin Weakens to a Depression

Former Tropical Storm Alvin weakened to a tropical depression over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Saturday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Alvin was located at latitude 20.7°N and longitude 109.5°W which put the center about 155 miles (250 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Alvin was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Alvin weakened to a tropical depression over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Sunday morning.  An upper level low over Baja California caused strong southwesterly winds that blew across the top of Alvin’s circulation.  Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear.  In addition, Alvin moved over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24°C.  Strong vertical wind shear and cool Sea Surface Temperatures caused former Tropical Storm Alvin to weaken.

Most of the thunderstorms in former Tropical Storm Alvin dissipated due to the strong vertical wind shear and cooler Sea Surface Temperatures.  The circulation around Tropical Depression Alvin existed primarily in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  Bands of showers and lower clouds were revolving around the center of Alvin’s circulation.  Since there were no thunderstorms to generate upper level divergence and to pump mass away, the surface pressure was increasing gradually.

Tropical Depression Alvin will move through an environment very unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alvin will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24°C.  The upper level low over Baja California will continue to produce southwesterly winds that will blow across the top of Alvin’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  The combination of cool Sea Surface Temperatures and strong vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Depression Alvin to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Depression Alvin will move around the western part of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system over Mexico and the upper level low over Baja California will steer Alvin toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Alvin will closer to the southern end of Baja California.

Tropical Storm Alvin Weakens South of Baja California

Tropical Storm Alvin weakened on Friday as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Alvin was located at latitude 18.1°N and longitude 109.0°W which put the center about 335 miles (540 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Alvin was moving toward the north-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

An upper level low over Baja California produced southwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Tropical Storm Alvin on Friday.  Those winds caused the vertical wind shear to increase.  The increase in vertical wind shear caused Alvin to weaken.  The increase in wind shear also caused the distribution of thunderstorm around Tropical Storm Alvin to become asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the northern side of Alvin’s circulation.  Bands in the southern side of Tropical Storm Alvin consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Even though Tropical Storm Alvin weakened on Friday,  the size of the circulation did not change much.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Alvin’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Alvin will move through an environment that will become even more unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alvin will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of the upper level low over Baja California.  The upper level low will continue to produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Alvin’s circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear on Saturday.  The combination of cool Sea Surface Temperatures and strong vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Alvin to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Alvin will move around the western part of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure system over Mexico and the upper level low over Baja California will steer Alvin toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Alvin will closer to the southern end of Baja California.

Tropical Storm Alvin Intensifies Southwest of Mexico

Tropical Storm Alvin intensified over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Alvin was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 107.9°W which put the center about 305 miles (495 km) west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Alvin was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Storm Alvin intensified over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Thursday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western side of the center of Alvin’s circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Alvin.  Storms near the center of Alvin generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The area of tropical storm force winds increased in size when Tropical Storm Alvin intensified on Thursday.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Alvin’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Alvin will move into an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alvin will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level low over Baja California.  The upper level low will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Alvin’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase on Friday.  The combination of cooler Sea Surface Temperatures and more vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Alvin to start to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Alvin will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system over Mexico and the upper level low over Baja California will steer Alvin toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Alvin will move parallel to the west coast of Mexico.

Depression Strengthens to Tropical Storm Alvin

Former Tropical Depression One-E strengthened to Tropical Storm Alvin over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Thursday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Alvin was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 106.3°W which put the center about 345 miles (555 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Alvin was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Former Tropical Depression One-E strengthened on Thursday morning and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Alvin.  Numerous thunderstorms formed near the center of Alvin’s circulation.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Alvin.  Storms near the center of Alvin generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Tropical Storm Alvin.

Tropical Storm Alvin will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alvin will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that is south of Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Alvin’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Alvin will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Alvin will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Alvin toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Alvin will move parallel to the west coast of Mexico.

Tropical Depression One-E Forms South of Mexico

Tropical Depression One-E formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Wednesday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of the area of Tropical Depression One-E was located at latitude 11.9°N and longitude 109.7°W which put the center about 465 miles (745 km) south of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Tropical Depression One-E was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico strengthened on Wednesday and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression One-E.  A distinct low level center of circulation developed in the middle of a larger low pressure system south of Mexico.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of circulation.  Bands of thunderstorms also developed.  Those bands of storms began to revolve around the center of Tropical Depression One-E.  Storms near the center of circulation started to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression One-E will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical depression will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that is south of Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical depression.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Depression One will intensify to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Depression One-E will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression One-E will move parallel to the west coast of Mexico.

Tropical Depression Likely to Form South of Mexico

A tropical depression is likely to form over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico during the next several days.  A broad area of low pressure was located south of Mexico.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of the area of low pressure was near latitude 10.0°N and longitude 98.0°W which put the center about 500 miles (805 km) south of Acapulco, Mexico.  The low pressure system was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

A broad area of low pressure was located over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico.  Thunderstorms were scattered inside the broad circulation of the low pressure system.  Satellite images appeared to indicate that some of the thunderstorms were beginning to organize into bands.

The broad area of low pressure will move through an environment favorable for the formation of a tropical depression during the next 48 hours.  The area of low pressure will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is south of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The broad area of low pressure is likely to develop into a tropical depression during the next 48 hours.

The broad area of low pressure will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer the area of low pressure toward the northwest during the next 48 hours.  On its anticipated track, the area of low pressure will move parallel to the coast of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Sara Moves Over Belize

Tropical Storm Sara moved over Belize on Sunday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located at latitude 17.1°N and longitude 88.4°W which put the center about 30 miles (50 km) south-southwest of Belize City, Belize.  Sara was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Caribbean coast of Guatemala.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Belize.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

The center of Tropical Storm Sara made landfall on the coast of Belize south of Belize City on Sunday morning.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Sara was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the northern side of Sara’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the southern side of Tropical Storm Sara.

Tropical Storm Sara will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Sara  toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Sara will move across Belize on Sunday.  Sara will move over the southern part of the Yucatan Peninsula by Sunday night.

Tropical Storm Sara will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to Belize on Sunday.  Heave rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Tropical Storm Sara will also drop heavy rain on parts of northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico.

Rafael Weakens to a Tropical Storm

Former Hurricane Rafael weakened to a tropical storm over the central Gulf of Mexico on Friday night.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located at latitude 25.0°N and longitude 90.8°W which put the center about 265 miles (425 km) north-northwest of Progreso, Mexico.  Rafael was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Former Hurricane Rafael continued to weaken over the central Gulf of Mexico on Friday night. An upper level low over the central U.S. was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Rafael’s circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear. Drier air was being pulled into the western side of Tropical Storm Rafael.  The combination of moderate vertical wind shear and drier air caused Rafael to continue to weaken.

The moderate vertical wind shear was also affecting the structure of Tropical Storm Rafael.  New thunderstorms were still developing near the center of Rafael’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also still occurring in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Rafael.  Bands in the western side of Rafael’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.   Storms near the center of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical storm.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Rafael was small. Wind to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Rafael’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Rafael will move through an environment mostly unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  However the upper level low over the central U.S. will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  More drier air will also get pulled into the western side of Rafael’s circulation.  The combination of moderate vertical wind shear and drier air is likely to cause Tropical Storm Rafael to weaken gradually during the next 24 hours.  Rafael could maintain its intensity today, if the wind shear does not get any stronger.

The winds steering Tropical Storm Rafael will be weak during the next 24 hours. As a result, on its anticipated track, Rafael will meander over the central Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.

Hurricane Rafael Weakens Over Gulf of Mexico

Hurricane Rafael weakened over the central Gulf of Mexico on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Hurricane Rafael was located at latitude 24.6°N and longitude 89.7°W which put the center about 230 miles (365 km) north of Progreso, Mexico.  Rafael was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

Hurricane Rafael started to weaken over the central Gulf of Mexico on Friday afternoon.  An upper level low over the central U.S. was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Rafael’s circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  Drier air was being pulled into the western side of Hurricane Rafael.  The combination of moderate vertical wind shear and drier air caused Hurricane Rafael to start to weaken.

The moderate vertical wind shear was also affecting the structure of Hurricane Rafael.  An eye was no longer visible at the center of Rafael’s circulation.  The western part of the former eyewall weakened and that part of the eyewall consisted of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in the eastern part of the former eyewall.  Thunderstorms were also still occurring in bands in the eastern side of Hurricane Rafael.  Storms near the center of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Rafael was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Rafael’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Hurricane Rafael.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Rafael was 16.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 27.0.  Hurricane Rafael was similar in intensity to Hurricane Idalia when Idalia hit Florida in 2023.  Rafael was bigger than Idalia was.

Rafael will move into an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  However the upper level low over the central U.S. will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  More drier air will also get pulled into the western side of Rafael’s circulation.  The combination of moderate vertical wind shear and drier air will cause Hurricane Rafael to weaken during the next 24 hours.

The winds steering Hurricane Rafael will weaken during the next 24 hours.  As a result, on its anticipated track, Hurricane Rafael will meander over the central Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.

Hurricane Rafael Moves Over Southeastern Gulf of Mexico

Hurricane Rafael moved over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Hurricane Rafael was located at latitude 24.7°N and longitude 86.2°W which put the center about 325 miles (520 km) northeast of Progreso, Mexico.  Rafael was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

Hurricane Rafael weakened a little on Wednesday night as it moved across western Cuba.  Rafael strengthened again on Thursday when it moved over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Rafael’s circulation and an eye formed again at the center of Hurricane Rafael.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Rafael’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the hurricane. The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Rafael was small.  Wind to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Rafael’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Hurricane Rafael.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Rafael was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 27.8.  Hurricane Rafael was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Rafael will move into an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the eastern periphery of a large upper level trough that extends from the North Central U.S. to the Southwest U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Rafael’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Hurricane Rafael could intensify during the next 24 hours.  The wind shear is likely to increase during the weekend and Rafael is likely to weaken when the shear increases.

Hurricane Rafael will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that extends from the western Atlantic Ocean to the Gulf of Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Rafael toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Rafael will move toward the central Gulf of Mexico.