Tag Archives: Mexico

Major Hurricane Beryl Nears Jamaica

Major Hurricane Beryl neared Jamaica on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 17.1°N and longitude 76.1°W which put the center about 75 miles (120 km) southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Jamaica, Grand Cayman, Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.  A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun, Mexico.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Cancun, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the south coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Cancun, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Chetumal, Mexico to Belize City, Belize.  A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Campeche, Mexico.

U.S. Air Force Reserve and NOAA aircraft found that Hurricane Beryl was still a major hurricane on Wednesday morning.   Although the eye appeared cloud filled on visible satellite images, the reconnaissance aircraft reported a circular eye with a diameter of 23 miles (37 km) was present at the center of Beryl’s circulation.   The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.   Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.   Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  Westerly winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere were inhibiting divergence of mass to the west of Hurricane Beryl.  Since the removal of mass was less than the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere, the surface pressure was increasing slowly.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Beryl was nearly steady during Wednesday morning.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 29.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 43.9.  Hurricane Beryl was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Ida when Ida hit Louisiana in 2021.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment that will be less favorable for a powerful hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level low over Northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The upper level low will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  Those winds will also cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Hurricane Beryl will weaken as the wind shear increases.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Beryl pass near the southern coast of Jamaica on Wednesday afternoon.  Beryl will begin to affect the Cayman Islands later on Wednesday evening.

The core of Hurricane Beryl is likely to pass just south of Jamaica during the next few hours.  Much of Jamaica could experience winds to hurricane force.  The strongest winds will occur along the southern coast of Jamaica.   Beryl will be capable of causing regional major damage. Widespread electricity outages are likely.  Hurricane Beryl will also drop heavy rain on Jamaica.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods.  Beryl could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along the south coast of Jamaica where the wind blows the water toward the coast.

Hurricane Beryl will reach the Cayman Islands on Wednesday night. Beryl is forecast still to be a hurricane when it reaches the Cayman Islands.  Hurricane Beryl will be capable of causing regional serious damage when it reaches the Cayman Islands.

Hurricane Beryl will approach the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday evening.  Beryl is likely to still be a hurricane when it approaches the Yucatan.

Dangerous Hurricane Beryl Moves Closer to Jamaica

Dangerous Hurricane Beryl moved closer to Jamaica on Tuesday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 16.2°N and longitude 72.7°W which put the center about 300 miles (400 km) east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.   Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Jamaica, Grand Cayman, Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the South coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic.  A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the south coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Chetumal, Mexico to Belize City, Belize.

U.S. Air Force Reserve and NOAA aircraft continued to fly reconnaissance into Hurricane Beryl on Tuesday evening.  A circular eye with a diameter of 23 miles (37 km) was present at the center of Beryl’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass was nearly equal to the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The equilibrium between upper level divergence and lower level convergence caused the surface pressure to remain nearly steady.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Beryl increased on Tuesday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 31.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 45.2.  Hurricane Beryl was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Ida when Ida hit Louisiana in 2021.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment that will be less favorable for a powerful hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move closer to an upper level low over Northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The upper level low will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Hurricane Beryl will weaken when the wind shear increases.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Beryl will begin to affect Jamaica by Wednesday morning.

Hurricane Beryl is likely to be a major hurricane when it reaches Jamaica.  Beryl will be capable of causing regional major damage.  Widespread electricity outages are likely.  Hurricane Beryl will also drop heavy rain on Jamaica.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods.  Beryl could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) where the wind blows the water toward the coast.

The circulation around the northern side of Hurricane Beryl will cause the water level to rise along the south coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti.  There are already reports of a storm surge along the south coast of Dominican Republic.

Hurricane Beryl will reach the Cayman Islands on Wednesday night.  Beryl is forecast still to be a hurricane when it reaches the Cayman Islands.

 

 

Hurricane Beryl Nears the Windward Islands

Hurricane Beryl neared the Windward Islands on Monday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 12.0°N and longitude 60.5°W which put the center about 70 miles (110 km) east of Grenada.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Barbados, Grenada, Tobago, and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for St. Lucia, Martinique and Trinidad.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti.  A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the south coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic.

Hurricane Beryl quickly completed an Eyewall Replacement Cycle early on Monday.  Beryl began to intensify again after completion of the Eyewall Replacement Cycle.  A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was present at the center of Hurricane Beryl.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane in all directions.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to start to decrease again.

Completion of the Eyewall Replacement Cycle caused the size of the circulation around Hurricane Beryl to increase.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 36.9.  Hurricane Beryl was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean and eastern Caribbean Sea.  The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere are also blowing from the east and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Beryl is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours unless another Eyewall Replacement Cycle occurs.  There is a chance that Hurricane Beryl could strengthen to a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Beryl will hit Grenada and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands in a few hours.

The core of Hurricane Beryl will pass very close to Grenada and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands in a few hours.  Beryl will be capable of causing regional severe damage.  Widespread outages of electricity are likely.  Hurricane Beryl will also drop heavy rain.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Hurricane Beryl could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) on the parts of islands where the wind blows the water toward the shore.

Hurricane Beryl will also bring strong winds and heavy rain in St. Lucia, Tobago, and Martinique.  Gusty winds and heavy rain could occur in Barbados and Trinidad.

Elsewhere, former Tropical Storm Chris brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Mexico.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Chris was located at latitude 20.2°N and longitude 97.7°W which put the center about 60 miles (95 km) south-southwest of Tuxpan, Mexico.  Chris was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Hurricane Beryl Approaches Windward Islands

Hurricane Beryl was approaching the Windward Islands on Sunday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 11.5°N and longitude 58.1°W which put the center about 150 miles (240 km) southeast of Barbados.   Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).   The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).   The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Barbados, St. Lucia, Grenada, Tobago, and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Martinique and Trinidad.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Dominica.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the south coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic.

A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was present at the center of Hurricane Beryl.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  The inner end of a rainband was wrapping around the existing eye and eyewall.  Concentric eyewalls were likely forming.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane in all directions.  The removal of large amounts of mass was in equilibrium with the inflow of mass near the surface and the surface pressure was nearly steady.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Beryl also remained nearly steady on Sunday evening.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 35.6.  Hurricane Beryl was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.  The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere are also blowing from the east and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Although Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment favorable for intensification, Beryl is likely to weaken during the next few hours.  Concentric eyewalls will likely lead to an Eyewall Replacement Cycle.  During an Eyewall Replacement Cycle the inner eyewall weakens and dissipates.  Since the maximum wind speeds occur in the inner eyewall, Hurricane Beryl will weaken, at least temporarily, when that happens.  Beryl could strengthen again after the Eyewall Replacement Cycle is over.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Beryl will pass between Barbados and Tobago early on Monday.  Hurricane Beryl will begin to affect St. Lucia, Grenada, and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands later on Monday morning.

The core of Hurricane Beryl could pass very close to St. Lucia, Grenada and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands.  Beryl will be capable of causing regional severe damage.  Hurricane Beryl will also drop heavy rain.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Hurricane Beryl could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) on the parts of islands where the wind blows the water toward the shore.

Hurricane Beryl will also produce strong winds and heavy rain in Barbados, Tobago, and Martinique.  Gusty winds and heavy rain could occur in Trinidad and Dominica.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Chris formed over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico near the coast of Mexico.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Chris was located at latitude 20.0°N and longitude 96.2°W which put the center about 105 miles (165 km) southeast of Tuxpan, Mexico.  Chris was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Rojo to Puerto Veracruz, Mexico.

 

Low Pressure System Drops Heavy Rain Near Georgia Coast

A low pressure system designated as Invest 92L was dropping heavy rain near the coast of Georgia on Saturday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of the low pressure system was located at latitude 31.1°N and longitude 81.5°W which put the center about 5 miles (10 km) southeast of Brunswick, Georgia.  The low pressure system was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1015 mb.

A low pressure system designated as Invest 92L was dropping heavy rain near the coast of Georgia on Saturday morning.

The center of the low pressure system was near Brunswick, Georgia.  There was a well defined center of circulation evident on the U.S. National Weather Service radar at Jacksonville, Florida.  The center of circulation was moving slowly near the coast of Georgia.  The heaviest rain was falling in a ring that wrapped around the eastern side of the center of Invest 92L.  Other bands of rain were over the Atlantic Ocean.

The low pressure system is forecast to move slowly inland over eastern Georgia.  Heavy rain could fall over areas near the coast as Invest 92L moves inland.  Heavy rain could cause flooding in some locations.

Elsewhere, a large low pressure system formed over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico near the area where Tropical Storm Alberto formed.  The low pressure system has been designated as Invest 93L.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Invest 93L was located at latitude 21.0°N and longitude 95.7°W which put it about 125 miles (200 km) east-southeast of Tampico, Mexico.  The low pressure system was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Invest 93L will move through an environment somewhat favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Invest 93L will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level ridge that stretches from Baja California to the Great Lakes.  The ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of the low pressure system.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be strong enough to prevent Invest 93L from developing into a tropical cyclone.  The U.S. National Hurricane Center is indicating that the probability is 50% that Invest 93L develops into a tropical cyclone.

The low pressure system designated as Invest 93L will move around the southern side of a large high pressure system over the eastern U.S.  The high pressure system will steer Invest 93L toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Invest 93L will approach the coast of Mexico near Tampico on Sunday.

The low pressure system designated as Invest 93L will drop heavy rain over some of the same areas where Tropical Storm Alberto dropped heavy rain.  Invest 93L is very likely to cause major flash floods in parts of northern Mexico.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low pressure system designated as Invest 93L later today, if necessary.

Tropical Storm Alberto Brings Wind and Rain to Northern Mexico

Tropical Storm Alberto brought wind and rain to northern Mexico on Thursday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Alberto was located at latitude 22.3°N and longitude 98.3°W which put it about 25 miles (40 km) west of Tampico, Mexico and about 255 miles (410 km) south of Brownsville, Texas.  Alberto was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Rio Grande River to Tecolutla, Mexico.  The Tropical Storm Warning included Tampico, Mexico.

The center of Tropical Storm Alberto made landfall on the coast of Mexico near Tampico on Thursday morning.  The strongest winds were occurring near the center of Alberto’s circulation.  The distribution of winds in Tropical Storm Alberto was still asymmetrical at the time of landfall.  The circulation around the northern side of Alberto’s circulation was interacting with the southern part of a strong high pressure system over the eastern U.S.  The interaction of the two pressure systems was causing a large area of tropical storm force winds in the northern side of Tropical Storm Alberto.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 275 miles (445 km) in the northern side of Alberto’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the southern half of Alberto.

Tropical Storm Alberto will move around the southern side of a strong high pressure system over the eastern U.S.  The high pressure system will steer Alberto toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Alberto will move steadily inland over northern Mexico.

Tropical Storm Alberto will weaken as it moves farther inland over northern Mexico.  Alberto will continue to produce gusty winds along the coast of Texas and northern Mexico during the next few hours.  Tropical Storm Alberto will also drop heavy rain on parts of northern Mexico and southern Texas.   Up to an additional 5 inches (125 mm) of rain could fall on parts of south Texas.  Flood Watches are in effect for parts of South Texas.  Up to an additional 16 inches (400 mm) of rain could fall on parts of northern Mexico where the winds blow the air up the slopes of mountains.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  The heaviest rain is likely to fall in Tamaulipas.

Tropical Storm Alberto Strengthens Near Mexico

Tropical Storm Alberto strengthened on Wednesday evening as it neared the coast of Mexico.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Alberto was located at latitude 21.5°N and longitude 95.9°W which put it about 135 miles (220 km) east-southeast of Tampico, Mexico and about 320 miles (510 km) south-southeast of Brownsville, Texas.  Alberto was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from San Luis Pass, Texas to Tecolutla, Mexico.  The Tropical Storm Warning included Port O’Connor, Corpus Christi and Brownsville, Texas.  The Tropical Storm Warning also included Tampico, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Alberto was getting stronger on Wednesday evening as it approached the coast of Mexico near Tampico.  Thunderstorms near the center of Alberto’s circulation rose higher into the atmosphere.  A band of thunderstorms wrapped around the southern and eastern side of the center of circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Alberto.  Storms near the center of Alberto generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of winds in Tropical Storm Alberto was still asymmetrical.  The circulation around the northern side of Alberto’s circulation was interacting with the southern part of a strong high pressure system over the eastern U.S.  The interaction of the two pressure systems was causing a large area of tropical storm force winds in the northern side of Tropical Storm Alberto.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 460 miles (740 km) in the northern side of Alberto’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the southern half of Alberto.

Tropical Storm Alberto will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Alberto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the the center of an upper level ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Alberto is likely to intensify during the next few hours until the center makes landfall on the coast of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Alberto will move around the southern side of a strong high pressure system over the eastern U.S.  The high pressure system will steer Alberto toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Alberto will make landfall on the coast of northern Mexico early on Thursday.  The center of Alberto will make landfall a little south of Tampico, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Alberto will produce gusty winds along the coast of Texas and northern Mexico.    Alberto will also drop heavy rain on parts of northern Mexico and southern Texas.  Up to 12 inches (300 mm) of rain could fall on parts of south Texas.  Flood Watches were in effect for parts of South Texas.  Up to 20 inches (500 mm) of rain could fall on parts of northern Mexico where the winds blow the air up the slopes of mountains.

Easterly winds blowing around the northern side of Tropical Storm Alberto will blow the water toward the coast of Texas and northern Mexico.  Alberto will cause a storm surge of up to six feet (two meters) where the winds blow the water toward the coast.  Tropical Storm Alberto caused flooding along parts of the coast of Texas and Louisiana on Wednesday.  There were reports of water over roads as far east as Grand Isle, Louisiana.

 

Tropical Storm Alberto Forms over Western Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Storm Alberto formed over the western Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Alberto was located at latitude 22.2°N and longitude 95.0°W which put it about 185 miles (300 km) east of Tampico, Mexico and about 295 miles (480 km) south-southeast of Brownsville, Texas.  Alberto was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).   The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from San Luis Pass, Texas to Tecolutla, Mexico.  The Tropical Storm Warning included Corpus Christi and Brownsville, Texas.  The Tropical Storm Warning also included Tampico, Mexico.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of a low pressure system previously designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone One on Wednesday morning.  A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft was able to locate a well defined low level center of circulation and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Alberto.

The structure of Tropical Storm Alberto was beginning to resemble a typical tropical storm.  Thunderstorms were forming near the center of Alberto’s circulation.  A band of thunderstorms wrapped around the southern and eastern side of Tropical Storm Alberto.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Alberto’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Alberto began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease.

Even though Tropical Storm Alberto was starting to look like a tropical storm, the distribution of winds was still asymmetrical.  The circulation around the northern side of Alberto’s circulation was interacting with the southern part of a strong high pressure system over the eastern U.S.  The interaction of the two pressure systems was causing the strongest winds to occur in the northern side of Tropical Storm Alberto.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 400 miles (645 km) north of the center of Alberto’s circulation.  An anemometer at Garden Banks 783 (KGBK) measured a sustained wind speed of 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and wind gusts of 50 m.p.h (80 km/h).  The anemometer is at a height of 58.2 meters above sea level.  The winds in the southern part of Alberto’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Alberto will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Alberto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the the center of an upper level ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Alberto will intensify during the next 12 hours.  Alberto could undergo a brief period of rapid intensification when it approaches the coast of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Alberto will move south of a strong high pressure system over the eastern U.S.  The high pressure system will steer Alberto toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Alberto will make landfall on the coast of northern Mexico on Wednesday night.  The center of Alberto will make landfall near Tampico, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Alberto will produce gusty winds along the coast of Texas and northern Mexico.   Alberto will also drop heavy rain on parts of northern Mexico and southern Texas.  Up to 12 inches (300 mm) of rain could fall on parts of south Texas.  Flood Watches were in effect for parts of South Central, Southeast and South Texas.  Up to 20 inches (500 mm) of rain could fall on parts of northern Mexico where the winds blow the air up the slopes of mountains.

Easterly winds blowing around the northern side of Tropical Storm Alberto will blow the water toward the coast of Texas and northern Mexico.  Alberto will cause a storm surge of up to six feet (two meters) where the winds blow the water toward the coast.  Tropical Storm Alberto was already causing some flooding along parts of the coast of Texas.  A tide station at San Luis Pass, Texas (LUIT2) was reporting a water level of 5.21 feet (1.59 meters).  That water level is associated with Major Flooding.  A tide station at Galveston Railroad Bridge (GRRT2)  was reporting a water level of 4.77 feet (1.45 meters).  That water level is associated with Major Flooding.

Tropical Storm Forming over Western Gulf of Mexico

A tropical storm is forming over the western Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday morning.  The low pressure system is currently designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone One.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone One was located at latitude 22.7°N and longitude 94.3°W which put it about 235 miles (380 km) east-southeast of La Pesca, Mexico and about 295 miles (475 km) southeast of Brownsville, Texas.  The low pressure system was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from San Luis Pass, Texas to Puerto de Altamira, Mexico. The Tropical Storm Warning includes Corpus Christi and Brownsville, Texas.

A low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico, currently designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone One, on Wednesday morning is beginning to develop a structure more like a tropical cyclone.  Thunderstorms are staring to develop near the center of the low pressure system.  A band of thunderstorms wraps around the southern and eastern side of Potential Tropical Cyclone One.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the middle of the low pressure system.

The distribution of winds around Potential Tropical Cyclone One is still asymmetrical.  The winds near the middle of the low pressure system are relatively weak.  The strongest winds are occurring in a band of thunderstorms about 400 miles (645 km) north of the middle of Potential Tropical Cyclone One.  Some of the winds in that band of storms are blowing at tropical storm force.  An anemometer at Garden Banks 783 (KGBK) is measuring a sustained wind speed of 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and wind gusts of 50 m.p.h (80 km/h).  The anemometer is at a height of 58.2 meters above sea level.  The winds in the rest of the low pressure system are blowing at less than tropical storm force.

The low pressure system will move through an environment favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the the center of an upper level ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Potential Tropical Cyclone One is forecast to develop into a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.  In order to be classified as a tropical cyclone, a distinct low level center of circulation will have to form.  Thunderstorms will have to develop and to persist near the low level center.  The strongest winds will need to occur near the low level center of circulation in order for Potential Tropical Cyclone One to be classified as a tropical storm.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move south of a strong high pressure system over the eastern U.S.  The strong high pressure system will block Potential Tropical Cyclone One and the high pressure system will prevent the low pressure system from moving toward the north.  The high pressure system will steer the low pressure system toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone One could approach the coast of northern Mexico and southern Texas on Wednesday evening.  The center of the low pressure system is likely to make landfall between Tampico and La Pesca, Mexico

Potential Tropical Cyclone One is likely to be a tropical storm when it approaches the coast.  The low pressure system will produce gusty winds along the coast of Texas and northern Mexico.  Potential Tropical Cyclone One will also drop heavy rain on parts of northern Mexico and southern Texas.  Up to 12 inches (300 mm) of rain could fall on parts of south Texas.  Flood Watches were in effect for parts of South Central, Southeast and South Texas.  Up to 20 inches (500 mm) of rain could fall on parts of northern Mexico where the winds blow the air up the slopes of mountains.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One will cause a storm surge of up to four feet (one meter) where the winds blow the water toward the coast.  The water is already causing some flooding along parts of the coast of Texas.

Tropical Storm Warnings Issued for South Texas and Northern Mexico

Tropical Storm Warnings were issued for the coast of south Texas and northern Mexico early on Tuesday. A low pressure system over the southern Gulf of Mexico was designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone One. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone One was located at latitude 21.5°N and longitude 92.8°W which put it about 355 miles (575 km) east-southeast of La Pesca, Mexico and about 420 miles (680 km) southeast of Brownsville, Texas. The low pressure system was moving toward the north at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Port O’Connor, Texas to Puerto de Altamira, Mexico. The Tropical Storm Warning included Corpus Christi and Brownsville, Texas.

A large low pressure system was over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday morning. The low pressure system did not exhibit the usual structural features of a tropical cyclone. So, the U.S. National Hurricane Center continued to designate the system as Potential Tropical Cyclone One.

The large low pressure system still did not have a well defined, distinct low level center of circulation. There were few thunderstorms in the broad region around the middle of the low pressure system. The surface winds were relatively weak near the middle of the low pressure system. The strongest winds were occurring in a band of thunderstorms about 285 miles (460 km) north of the middle of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Some winds in that area were blowing at tropical storm force. Elsewhere in the low pressure system, the winds were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

The low pressure system will move through an environment favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the the center of an upper level ridge centered near the Yucatan Peninsula. The upper level winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Potential Tropical Cyclone One could develop into a tropical storm during the next 24 hours. In order to be classified as a tropical cyclone, a distinct low level center of circulation would have to form. Thunderstorms would have to develop and to persist near the low level center. The strongest winds would need to occur near the low level center of circulation in order for Potential Tropical Cyclone One to be classified as a tropical storm.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move around the northern part of a large counterclockwise circulation called a Central American Gyre (CAG) during the next 12 hours. The Central American Gyre will steer the low pressure system toward the north-northwest on Tuesday. A strong high pressure system over the eastern U.S. will block Potential Tropical Cyclone One from moving toward the north on Wednesday. The high pressure system will turn the low pressure system toward the west-northwest. On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone One could approach the coast of northern Mexico or southern Texas on Wednesday evening.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One could be a tropical storm when it approaches the coast. That is the reason the Tropical Storm Warnings were issued. Even if Potential Tropical Cyclone One does not develop into a tropical storm, it will drop heavy rain on parts of northern Mexico and southern Texas. The low pressure system could also cause a storm surge of up to four feet (one meter) where the winds blow the water toward the coast.

Flood Watches were in effect for portions of South Central and Southeast Texas.