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Hurricane Matthew Brings Wind, Rain and Surge to Northeast Florida

Hurricane Matthew brought gusty winds, heavy rain and storm surges to northeast Florida as the center of the hurricane moved northward just east of Florida on Friday.  A weather station on the tip of Cape Canaveral reported a wind gust to 107 m.p.h. (170 km/h) when the western side of the eyewall moved over that location.  Wind gusts to 71 m.p.h. (115 km/h) were reported at Daytona Beach.  A wind gust to 86 m.p.h. (139 km/h) was reported by a C-MAN station in St. Augustine, Florida.  Some wind damage and numerous power outages were reported in conjunction with the strong winds.  Easterly winds pushing water toward the coast were generating storms surges along the coast.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Matthew was located at latitude 30.2°N and longitude 80.7°W which put it about 40 miles (65 km) east of Jacksonville Beach, Florida and about 135 miles (215 km) south of Savannah, Georgia.  Matthew was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 948 mb.  Hurricane Matthew was a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Flagler/Volusia County line in Florida to Surf City, North Carolina.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Surf City to Duck, North Carolina including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.  A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the portion of the coast from the Brevard/Volusia County lie to the Volusia/Flagler County line in Florida.

The eye and the core of Hurricane Matthew remained over the Atlantic Ocean as Matthew moved parallel to the east coast of Florida.  Occasionally, the western side of the eyewall would move over the coast and bring stronger winds to those areas.  The remnants of the smaller inner eyewall dissipated during the afternoon.  Once the eyewall cycle was completed the remaining outer eyewall began to contract.  Thunderstorms around the eye generated enough upper level divergence to pump out mass and limited the increase of the surface pressure.  As a result, a strong pressure gradient force is still producing winds of over 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) in the north and northeastern parts of the eyewall.

Hurricane Matthew has been moving around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system which steered the hurricane toward the north on Friday.  An upper level trough over the Central U.S. will move east and southwesterly winds with the trough will start to steer Matthew toward the northeast later tonight.  It is not clear exactly when the turn will occur and the exact timing of the turn to the northeast is very important.  If Hurricane Matthew continues to move north, the northern eyewall which contains the strongest winds could reach Savannah and the coast of South Carolina in 6-10 hours.  If those winds reach the coast, then the damage will be more severe.  If Hurricane Matthew turns northeast before the northern eyewall reaches the coast, then the damage will be less.

Even though Hurricane Matthew weakened slightly to a Category 2 hurricane and is no longer officially a major hurricane, it is still capable of causing regional serious damage.  Matthew will cause wind damage and widespread power outages along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina, even if the center of the eye does not officially make landfall.  If the center of the eye brings the northern eyewall over the coast, the winds will be much stronger and the damage will be greater.  In addition, easterly winds on the northern side of Hurricane Matthew will drive water toward the coast and create serious storm surges.  In places where the shape of the coast funnels water into smaller areas, the surges will be even more dangerous.

Hurricane Matthew Develops Concentric Eyewalls on Its Way Toward Florida

The structure of Hurricane Matthew changed on Thursday as it strengthened on its way toward Florida.  A second larger outer eyewall formed around the small tight inner eye and eyewall.   At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Matthew was located at latitude 26.2°N and longitude 78.6°W which put it about 25 miles (40 km) south-southeast of Freeport, Bahamas and about 100 miles (160 km) east-southeast of West Palm Beach, Florida.  Matthew was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (270 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 938 mb.  Hurricane Matthew was a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Golden Beach, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina including Lake Okeechobee.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast South Santee River, South Carolina to Surf City, North Carolina.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River, Florida to Suwanee River.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Chokoloskee to Golden Beach, Florida and for the Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward including Florida Bay.  A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the portion of the coast from Chokoloskee, Florida to Anclote River.  A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island and New Providence.

Hurricane Matthew began to strengthen early on Thursday morning.  The minimum surface pressure decreased from 961 mb at 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday night to 940 mb at 8:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday morning.  A decrease of 17 mb in nine hours is a very rapid pressure fall, but the maximum wind speed only increased from 115 m.p.h. ((185 km/h) to 125 m.p.h. (205 mk/h) during that time period.  The rapid decrease in pressure and the increase in the pressure gradient force around the center of Hurricane Matthew contributed to the reformation of a small circular eye at the center of the hurricane.  Once the new eyewall was established, the wind speed increased to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) within three hours.

The structure of the circulation of Hurricane Matthew continued to improve during the day on Thursday as the hurricane moved over the very warm water around the Bahamas.  A circular inner eye with a diameter of 18 miles (29 km) was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  A rainband wrapped all the way around the original eye and eyewall and a second outer eyewall formed.  The outer eyewall has a diameter of 70 miles (105 km).  The strongest winds in Hurricane Matthew are occurring in the inner eyewall.  Hurricane Matthew has maintained a double eyewall structure in recent hours.

Matthew is moving through an environment that is favorable for hurricanes.  The Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  There upper level winds are weak and there is not much vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Matthew is likely to maintain its current intensity as long as the inner eyewall remains intact.  If the inner eye starts to dissipate, then the strongest winds would be found in the outer eyewall, but those winds are not as strong as the winds in the inner eyewall.  So the intensity of Hurricane Matthew would decrease if that happened.  However, the wind field of a hurricane typically gets larger if the outer eyewall becomes the strongest part of the circulation.

Hurricane Matthew is moving around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system which is steering it toward the northwest and that general motion is expected to continue until the hurricane gets close to the coast of Florida.  When Hurricane Matthew gets close to the coast, it will be at the western end of the high and the hurricane will turn north.  It is still unclear if the turn will occur just before Matthew reaches the coast or whether it will occur after the center of Matthew moves on shore.  Eventually, when Hurricane Matthew moves farther north, an upper level trough approaching form the west will steer it toward the northeast, but the timing of that turn is still uncertain too.

The future track of Hurricane Matthew will be a critical factor in determining the damage it causes.  If Matthew turns north before it reaches the east coast of Florida, the the strongest winds would stay over the Atlantic Ocean.  The same holds true for the turn toward the northeast.  If the turn occurs before Hurricane Matthew reaches Georgia and South Carolina, then the strongest winds would stay offshore.  A much more destructive scenario would unfold if Hurricane Matthew reaches the coast of Florida and then turns north.  If Matthew grinds its way north along the coast, the strongest winds and highest storm surge would occur.  Matthew could move over cities like Daytona Beach and Jacksonville.  If the turn to the northeast is delayed, then Matthew would also move near Savannah, Georgia and Charleston, South Carolina.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Matthew is 28.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 18.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 46.6  The indices indicate that Hurricane Matthew is stronger than Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne were when they hit southeast coast of Florida in 2004.  Matthew is smaller than Frances and Jeanne were in 2004.  The HWISI for Matthew is similar to the ones for Frances and Jeanne, which would suggest that Matthew is capable of causing similar damage.  Hurricane Frances cause 11 billion dollars of damage in 2004.  Hurricane Jeanne caused about 8 billion dollars of damage.  So, Hurricane Matthew has the potential to be a very destructive hurricane, but the damage it does will be determined by its ultimate path.  Matthew will do much less damage if the core of the hurricane stays offshore.

Hurricane Matthew will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the southeast coast of Florida on Thursday night.  It will do the same to the northeast coast of Florida on Friday.  Strong easterly winds on the northern side of the center of circulation will drive water toward the shore and create dangerous storm surges as Hurricane Matthew moves along the coast.  The heavy rain is likely to cause fresh water flooding in some locations.  Hurricane Matthew could have the greats impact on the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina on Friday night and Saturday.

Post Tropical Storm Hermine Creates Coastal Flood Risk for Northeast U.S.

Although the structure of Tropical Storm Hermine changed significantly on Saturday and the National Hurricane Center designated it as Post Tropical, it still is creating a risk for coastal flooding for the northeastern U.S.  The size of the circulation of Hermine and its proximity to the U.S. is allowing its winds to push water toward portions of the coast.  The largest immediate risk is for the coasts of Virginia, Delaware and New Jersey.  When Hermine moves north, the greater risk will shift to New York, Rhode Island and Massachusetts.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Post Tropical Storm Hermine was located at latitude 36.5°N and longitude 72.1°W which put it about 205 miles (330 km) southeast of Ocean City, Maryland.  Hermine was moving toward the east-northeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina to Watch Hill, Rhode Island including the Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward, Delaware Bay, New York City and Long Island.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Watch Hill, Rhode Island to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket.

The circulation of Hermine changed from a tropical cyclone with a tight inner core to structure where area with the maximum wind speed is farther from the center.  In addition all of the thunderstorms near the center dissipated and most of the remaining thunderstorms are well northeast of the center of circulation.  The loss of tropical characteristics are the reason why the National Hurricane Center designated Hermine as Post Tropical.

Future changes of Hermine could continue to be complex.  Dry air has permeated the inner 100 miles (160 km) of the circulation which is devoid of any thunderstorms.  An upper level trough over the northeastern U.S. is forecast to move over the top of Hermine and cut off.  The would create a vertical structure which is the opposite of what is normally found in a tropical cyclone.  However, Hermine is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 30°C.  A combination of cold air aloft in the upper low and warm SSTs could create enough instability to generate the development of new thunderstorms closer to the core of the circulation.  it is possible that Hermine could make a transition back to a more tropical cyclone like structure during the next several days.

The upper level trough is currently steering Hermine toward the east-northeast.  When the trough approaches Hermine, it will steer the storm more toward then north.  However, when the trough moves over the top of Hermine, the steering currents will be weak and Hermine could stall south of Long Island.  It is possible that the counterclockwise rotation in the upper trough could cause the storm to loop once or twice.  If Hermine makes a slow counterclockwise loop, it could move back closer to the coast of New Jersey on Monday.

The wind field in Hermine expanded during the structural changes.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 200 miles (320 km).  That makes Hermine about half as big as Hurricane Sandy was in 2012.

Hurricane Hermine Making Landfall in North Florida

After intensifying into a hurricane on Thursday, Hurricane Hermine is making landfall near St. Marks, Florida.  At midnight EDT the center of Hurricane Hermine was located at latitude 29.8°N and longitude 84.2°W which put it about 20 miles (30 km) south of St. Marks, Florida.  Hermine was moving toward the north-northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (155 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Suwannee River to Mexico Beach, Florida.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Anclote River to Suwannee River and from Mexico Beach to the Walton County/Bay County line.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Englewood to Suwannee River and from Mexico Beach to the Walton County/Bay County line.  A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect from the Flagler County/Volusia County line to Duck, North Carolina including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Duck, North Carolina to Sandy Hook, New Jersey including the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward and southern Delaware Bay.

The circulation of Hurricane Hermine organized quickly on Thursday.  It developed an eye with a mostly complete eyewall.  Spiral rainbands developed with strong winds in the eastern half of the circulation.  Upper level divergence to the east of Hermine pumped out mass and allowed the surface pressure to decrease.  The circulation is still asymmetrical with most of the stronger winds east of the center, but it looks a lot more typical of hurricanes that move toward the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Hermine will weaken after it makes landfall.  It could interact with a cold front moving into the southeastern U.S.  It is possible that Hermine could develop a hybrid structure that is part tropical and part extratropical.  Hermine could have winds to tropical storm force as it passes over the Mid-Atlantic coast.  The stronger winds are likely to be out over the Atlantic Ocean and winds should be weaker farther inland.

An upper level trough is steering Hurricane Hermine toward the north-northeast and a general northeasterly motion is expected to continue for another 36 hours.  Later in the weekend a surface high pressure system could move north of Hermine and stall its progress.  Hermine could be stationary for a time.  On its anticipated track center of Hermine is likely to pass east of Tallahassee, Florida.  The center could pass north of Savannah, Georgia before coming near Charleston, South Carolina.  Hermine is likely to move near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina and out into the Atlantic Ocean.

Hurricane Hermine is capable of causing regional minor wind damage.  It is likely to cause widespread power outages.  The coast of the northeastern Gulf of Mexico is susceptible to storm surges and high water will effect that area overnight.  Locally heavy rainfall will create the potential for flooding.  When rainbands move ashore, wind shear could spin up tornadoes.  As Hermine moves near the Mid-Atlantic coast, easterly winds could cause water rises.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Hermine is 11.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.0.  The Hurricane Wind Intensity SIze Index (HWISI) is 25.5.  These indices are very similar to the ones for Hurricane Isaac before it hit the coast of Louisiana n 2012.  The HII for Isaac was 11.5.  Its HSI was 16.7 and its HWISI was 28.2.  This means that Hurricane Hermine is as strong and just smaller than Hurricane Isaac was just before it made landfall.  Hurricane Isaac did hit a more populated and more built up region.  Hurricane Isaac did 970 million dollars worth of insured damage.  It caused 407 million dollars to be paid out for flood insurance.  It is estimated that Hurricane Isaac caused 2.35 billion dollars worth of damage in the U.S.

Tropical Storm Hermine Strengthens, Hurricane Warning Issued

Tropical Storm Hermine strengthened on Wednesday evening and a Hurricane Warning was issued for a portion of the northern Florida coast.  A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Suwannee River to Mexico Beach, Florida.  A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portions of the coast from Anclote River to Suwannee River and from Mexico Beach to Destin, Florida.  The Tropical Storm Watch was extended farther up the Mid-Atlantic coast.  The Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Marineland, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was located at latitude 25.8°N and longitude 87.0°W which put it about 295 miles (475 km) south-southwest of Apalachicola, Florida.  Hermine was moving toward the north-northeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Hermine became better organized on Wednesday, but it is still not really well organized.  A tighter center of circulation developed.  However, the wind field is still asymmetrical.  The stronger winds are mainly east of the center and the winds are weaker in the western half of the circulation.  An area of strong thunderstorms developed near the center and another cluster of thunderstorms persisted southwest of the center.  There are not many thunderstorms northwest of the center.  There are some spiral rainbands, but they are fragmented.

Tropical Storm Hermine is in an environment that is favorable for intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level flow pattern is enhancing the divergence of mass to the northeast of Hermine.  The enhanced upper level divergence pumped out enough mass to allow the surface pressure to decrease by a few millibars on Wednesday evening.  Tropical Storm Hermine is expected to continue to intensify on Thursday and it should become a hurricane before it makes landfall on Thursday night.

The upper level ridge that was blocking a northward motion of Hermine has weakened.  So, the tropical storm has begun to more toward the north-northeast.  An upper level trough is expected to steer Hermine a little faster toward the northeast on Thursday.  On its anticipated track Hermine could make landfall somewhere between Apalachicola and Tarpon Springs, Florida on Thursday night.  After it moves across northeast Florida, Hermine could move near the coast of Carolinas on Friday.

Hermine is likely to be a hurricane when it makes landfall on Thursday night.  The core of the circulation which will contain the highest winds is likely to be fairly small and Hermine is likely to cause localized minor wind damage.  There will undoubtedly be power outages.  The coastline around the northeastern Gulf of Mexico is vulnerable to storm surges and Hermine will also produce a storm surge which could range up to 7 to 8 feet (2 to 2.5 meters) near where the center crosses the coast.  The storm surge will be less farther away from where the center makes landfall.  In addition Hermine will generate locally heavy rain which could cause fresh water flooding.  Directional wind shear associated with rainbands moving inland could spin up tornadoes in the eastern half of Hermine.

Tropical Depression Eight Prompts Tropical Storm Warning for North Carolina

The approach of Tropical Depression Eight and the potential for intensification prompted the National Hurricane Center to issue a Tropical Storm Warning for the portion of the coast from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet, North Carolina including Pamlico Sound.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located at latitude 33.6°N and longitude 74.0°W which put it about 140 miles (225 km) southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  It was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (70 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1011 mb.

Vertical wind shear disrupted the circulation of Tropical Depression Eight earlier today, but more thunderstorms developed northwest of the center of circulation during the afternoon.  The circulation is still not well organized, but there are indications on radar that it could be developing a tighter center.  An upper level low centered near Savannah, Georgia is producing southerly winds which are causing the moderate vertical wind shear over the depression.  The upper level winds are blocking upper level divergence to the south of Tropical Depression Eight, but there are some sign that upper level divergence could be occurring to the northeast.

Tropical Depression Eight could move into an area marginally more favorable for intensification.  As it gets farther from the upper level low, the winds aloft will decrease.  The depression is moving near the Gulf Stream and the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29.5°C.  If thunderstorms persist near the center of circulation and a more coherent vertical structure develops, the the depression could strengthen into a tropical storm.

The upper low is steering Tropical Depression toward the northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for another day or so.  When the depression reaches latitude 35°N, westerly winds will begin to steer it off toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Eight could be very near Cape Hatteras in 24 to 36 hours.

Although Tropical Depression Eight will bring some stronger winds, locally heavy rain, rip currents, higher waves and beach erosion are greater risks.

Tropical Depressions Form South of Key West & Southeast of Cape Hatteras

Two tropical depressions formed near the U.S. on Sunday.  Tropical Depression Nine formed south of Key West, Florida and Tropical Depression Eight formed southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Both depressions could have an impact on the U.S., but Tropical Depression Nine could pose a greater risk to the southeastern U.S.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located at latitude 23.7°N and longitude 81.7°W which put it about 60 miles (95 km) south of Key West, Florida.  It was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (70 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located at latitude 31.8°N and longitude 70.9°W which put it about 355 miles (570 km) southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  It was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (70 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Depression Nine is still organizing.  A NOAA plane found a distinct center of circulation, but most of the stronger thunderstorms are south and east of the center.  There is a broader counterclockwise rotation with numerous showers and thunderstorms indicated by the National Weather Service radar in Key West.  An upper level low east of Florida is contributing to easterly winds that are blowing across the northern side of the depression.  The vertical wind shear is inhibiting the development of thunderstorms north and west of the center.

The circulation of Tropical Depression Eight was more well organized earlier today.  Strong easterly winds from the same upper level low that is affecting Tropical Depression Nine are creating significant vertical wind shear.  Those winds and the shear they caused blew the upper portion of the depression’s circulation west of the low level center of circulation.  The low level circulation is presently exposed as seen on visible satellite imagery and by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft.

The intensity forecast for Tropical Depression Nine is challenging because it is moving through a complex environment.  The depression is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  So, there is plenty of energy in the upper ocean.  However, as mentioned above, an upper low is causing vertical wind shear which will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Depression Nine could move into a region where there is less shear when it moves over the Gulf of Mexico.  Tropical Depression Nine has a good chance to intensify into a tropical storm, but it is unclear if it could become a hurricane before it reaches the coast.

There is also significant uncertainty in the track forecast for Tropical Depression Nine.  A ridge over the southeastern U.S. is steering the depression toward the west and that general motion should continue for several more days.  The ridge is forecast to weaken during the middle of the week and that should allow Tropical Depression Nine to turn toward the north.  The timing of that turn and how sharp it will be are still uncertain.

The upper low is expected to continue to generate wind shear over Tropical Depression Eight.  If the upper levels winds remain as strong as they are now, the depression will slowly weaken.  If the upper level winds weaken, then Tropical Depression Eight could strengthen into a minimal tropical storm.  The upper level low is steering the depression west and that general motion is expected to continue in the short term.  The depression could stall just off the coast of North Carolina.

Tropical Depression Nine could intensify and bring wind and rain to the Gulf Coast later this week.  The Gulf Coast is also vulnerable to storm surges.  Given the uncertainty in both the track and intensity, interests along the coast should monitor official sources of information for updates on Tropical Depression Nine.  The primary effects of Tropical Depression Eight are likely to be higher than normal surf, rip currents and some beach erosion along the North Carolina coast.  People along the Mid-Atlantic coast should pay attention to the depression in case the forecast changes.

Tropical Storm Colin Near Landfall in Florida

Tropical Storm Colin accelerated toward the northeast on Monday afternoon and the center of circulation is about to make landfall near Steinhatchee, Florida.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Colin was located at latitude 29.8°N and longitude 83.8°W which put it about 65 miles (105 km) northwest of Cedar Key, Florida.  Colin was moving toward the northeast at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to Englewood, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the East Coast from Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Oregon Inlet, North Carolina.

Although Tropical Storm Colin looked ragged on satellite and radar imagery, the pressure did drop to 1001 mb on Monday.  Colin is a very asymmetric tropical storm.  Almost all of the rain and stronger winds are in the eastern half of the circulation.  Most of the heavier rain is falling in bands southeast and northeast of the center.  An upper level trough over Mexico is producing strong southwesterly winds which are blowing over the western half of Colin.  Despite significant vertical wind shear, the center of circulation became more well defined on Monday.  There are few thunderstorms near the center and Colin is clearly a sheared tropical cyclone.

Tropical Storm Colin did produce minor storm surges along the west coast of Florida where the winds pushed the water toward the coast.  Local coastal flooding occurred, especially in the most surge prone areas.  In addition Tropical Storm Colin produced heavy rainfall over the peninsula of Florida.

Normally, a tropical storm weakens when it moves over land because there is more friction and it is removed from its energy source.  However, Tropical Storm Colin could move into a region where there is more upper level divergence.  If the upper level divergence pumps out more mass, the surface pressure could fall and the wind speeds could increase a little bit.  In addition, if Colin moves toward the northeast more quickly then the effect of vertical wind shear will be less.  The wind speed in Tropical Storm Colin is forecast to increase a little on Tuesday, even though it could start to lose its tropical characteristics.

The upper level trough should continue to steer Tropical Storm Colin toward the northeast on Tuesday.  It is expected to move rapidly across northeast Florida and the center of Colin could emerge over the Atlantic Ocean by Tuesday morning.  The center of Colin is expected to move close to the coast of the Carolinas and it could be east of Cape Hatteras by Tuesday night.

On its anticipated track, the strongest winds should occur over the Atlantic Ocean.  Tropical Storm Colin could contribute to locally heavy rainfall in northeast Florida, extreme southeast Georgia and coastal portions of South Carolina and North Carolina.  Wave action could cause some beach erosion.  Wind damage should be minimal, although some power outages could occur.

Tropical Storm Colin Forms Over Gulf of Mexico and Heads for Florida

A broad area of low pressure over the southern Gulf of Mexico became more organized on Sunday and a U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft found sustained winds of 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  As a result, the National Hurricane Center classified the system as Tropical Storm Colin.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Colin was located at latitude 23.6°N and longitude 87.8°W which put it about 450 miles (720 km) southwest of Tampa, Florida.  Colin was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to Englewood, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning has also been issued for the East Coast from Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.  A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia to South Santee River, South Carolina.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Colin is very asymmetrical.  The stronger winds and most of the thunderstorms are east of the center of circulation.  Some rotation in the middle levels in the primary band on the east side of Colin is apparent on satellite imagery.  Winds to tropical storm force are occurring up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center of circulation.  However, the winds are much weaker in the western half of the circulation.

The environment around Tropical Storm Colin is marginal for intensification.  Colin is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C to 29°C.  So, there is sufficient energy in the upper ocean to support intensification.  An upper level low near Texas and an upper level ridge east of Colin are combining to produce southwesterly winds that are blowing over the western half of the storm.  Those winds are causing strong vertical wind shear which is preventing the development of thunderstorms in that part of the storm.  Part of the upper level ridge is over the eastern half of the circulation.  The upper level winds are weaker there and there is less vertical wind shear, which is allowing strong thunderstorms to persist in that part of Colin.  The upper level ridge is also enhancing upper level divergence to the east of Tropical Storm Colin.  If a new center of circulation were to form closer to the upper level ridge, then more intensification would be possible.  Colin is likely to intensify somewhat on Monday.

The upper low and upper level ridge are also steering Tropical Storm Colin toward the north.  Those features are expected to turn Colin toward the northeast on Monday.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Colin will approach the coast of Florida between Tampa and Apalachicola on Monday evening.  However, if a new center of circulation develops farther east, Colin could make landfall farther south along the coast and earlier on Monday.

Heavy rainfall is the greatest risk with Tropical Storm Colin.  It is pulling very humid air from the Caribbean Sea northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  Tropical Storm Colin could also generate a storm surge of 1-6 feet near where the center makes landfall.  The coast along the northeastern Gulf of Mexico is very susceptible to storm surges and water rises will occur in that area.  Wind damage is likely to be minimal, although power outages may occur.  Some tornadoes could be generated when Colin moves over land.  Locally heavy rain could also fall in portions of the Mid-Atlantic states as the circulation of Tropical Storm Colin interacts with a cold front.

Tropical Storm Colin was named on June 5, which is the earliest date on record on which the third Atlantic Tropical Storm has formed.  During the record setting year of 2005 Tropical Storm (later to become Hurricane) Cindy was named on July 5.

Bonnie Regains Tropical Depression Status Near Cape Hatteras

One time Tropical Storm Bonnie regained tropical depression status near Cape Hatteras on Thursday morning.  The National Hurricane Center (NHC) will resume issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Bonnie at 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Bonnie was located at latitude 35.0°N and longitude 75.7°W which put it about 15 miles (25 km) south of Hatteras,, North Carolina.  Bonnie was moving toward the east-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

After making landfall in South Carolina during the weekend, the center of Bonnie made a counterclockwise loop over land and then drifted east of Charleston.   The center drifted back over water on Tuesday and more thunderstorms formed near the center of circulation.  However, the vertical wind shear was still significant and the tops of the thunderstorms were periodically blown away from the lower part of the circulation.  As a result the circulation of Post Tropical Depression Bonnie was relatively shallow and existed primarily in the lower troposphere below 700 mb (about 3 km above the surface).  The low level circulation of Bonnie has move slowly east-northeast since that time and more thunderstorms developed in several spiral bands around the circulation.

During the past 24 hours Bonnie drifted under the axis of an upper level trough where the upper level winds are lighter.  As a result thunderstorms have persisted and a well formed band wraps around the northern and western sides of the center of circulation.  The circulation also extends higher into the atmosphere and a small area of upper level divergence has developed over the center of circulation.  Bonnie again has the appearance of a tropical cyclone on both satellite and radar images, which is why NHC is resuming advisories on the system.

Tropical Depression Bonnie could intensify further in the short term.  The Sea Surface Temperature (SST) reported by a buoy at Diamond Shoals, which is near the center of Bonnie, is near 26°C.  So, there is enough energy in the upper ocean to support some strengthening.  The upper level winds are light and vertical wind shear is not significant at this time.  If the surface pressures start to decrease, then Bonnie has a chance to become a tropical storm again.  Eventually, Bonnie will move into an environment where the SSTs are cooler and there is more vertical wind shear.

Tropical Depression Bonnie is between a subtropical high pressure system to its southeast and mid-latitude westerly flow to its north.  That combination is steering Bonnie slowly toward the east-northeast.  A general easterly motion is expected to continue during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Bonnie will gradually move away from the east coast of the U.S.