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Cempaka Strengthens to a Typhoon Southwest of Hong Kong

Former Tropical Storm Cempaka strengthened to a typhoon southwest of Hong Kong on Monday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Cempaka was located at latitude 21.3°N and longitude 112.4°E which put it about 130 miles (210 km) southwest of Hong Kong. Cempaka was moving toward the west-northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

The small circulation around former Tropical Storm Cempaka strengthened quickly on Monday. A small circular eye formed at the center of Typhoon Cempaka. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Cempaka. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon. Winds to typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Cempaka. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of circulation.

Typhoon Cempaka will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Cempaka will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will remain under an upper level ridge over the South China Sea. The winds are weak in the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Cempaka could intensify during the next 12 hours.

Typhoon Cempaka will move south of a surface high pressure system over eastern China. The high pressure system will steer Cempaka slowly toward the west-northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Cempaka could approach the south coast of China near Yangjiang in about 12 hours. Cempaka will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the coast of Guangdong province. Since Cempaka will move very slowly some locations could receive extremely heavy rainfall and flash floods are likely in those places. Typhoon Cempaka could also produce of storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along parts of the coast where the wind blows the water toward the shore.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm In-Fa stalled southeast of Okinawa. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm In-Fa was located at latitude 24.3°N and longitude 130.9°E which put it about 265 miles (425 km) southeast of Okinawa. In-Fa was moving toward the west-northwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb. Tropical Storm In-Fa is forecast to move toward the west during the next several days and to intensify to a typhoon. In-Fa could be south of Okinawa in 30 hours. It could be over the southwestern Ryukyu Islands in 72 hours and near northern Taiwan in less than four days.

Tropical Storm Cempaka Forms Southwest of Hong Kong

Tropical Storm Cempaka formed southwest of Hong Kong on Sunday evening. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Cempaka was located at latitude 21.0°N and longitude 113.0°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) southwest of Hong Kong. Cempaka was moving toward the west-northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

The circulation around a small low pressure system organized quickly on Sunday evening and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Cempaka. The inner end of a rainband wrapped most of the way around the center of Cempaka and an eye appeared to be forming in the middle of the tropical storm. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Cempaka. Storm near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 40 miles from the center of Cempaka.

Tropical Storm Cempaka will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Cempaka will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C during the next 24 hours. It will move under an upper level ridge over the South China Sea. The winds are weak in the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Cempaka will intensify during the next 24 hours and there is a chance it could strengthen to a typhoon.

Tropical Storm Cempaka will move south of a surface high pressure system over eastern China. The high pressure system will steer Cempaka slowly toward the west-northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Cempaka could approach the south coast of China near Yangjiang in about 24 hours. Cempaka could be a typhoon when it approaches the coast. It will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the coast of Guangdong province. Cempaka could also produce of storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along parts of the coast where the wind blows the water toward the shore.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm In-Fa strengthened southeast of Okinawa. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm In-Fa was located at latitude 24.1°N and longitude 131.3°E which put it about 290 miles (465 km) southeast of Okinawa. In-Fa was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb. Tropical Storm In-Fa is forecast to move toward the west during the next several days and to intensify to a typhoon. In-Fa could be south of Okinawa in 36 hours. It could be over the southwestern Ryukyu Islands in three days and near northern Taiwan in four days.

Tropical Storm In-Fa Forms Southeast of Okinawa

Tropical Storm In-Fa formed southeast of Okinawa on Saturday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm In-Fa was located at latitude 22.4°N and longitude 132.3°E which put it about 420 miles (675 km) southeast of Okinawa. In-Fa was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system southeast of Okinawa exhibited more organization on Saturday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm In-Fa. The distribution of thunderstorms around In-Fa was asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Tropical Storm In-Fa. Bands on the western side of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. An upper level low centered west of Japan was producing westerly winds that were blowing toward the top of In-Fa. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and they were also contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Storm In-Fa will move into an environment that is forecast to become more favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. In-Fa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C during the next two days. The upper level low west of Japan is forecast to move toward the north. When the upper low moves north, the upper level winds around In-Fa will weaken and the vertical wind shear will decrease. Tropical Storm In-Fa is likely to strengthen during the next 48 hours. When the upper level winds weaken, In-Fa could intensify more quickly. Tropical Storm In-Fa could strengthen to a typhoon within 72 hours.

Tropical Storm In-Fa will move south of a surface high pressure system centered southeast of Japan on Sunday. The high will steer In-Fa toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. A second surface high pressure system over eastern Asia is forecast to move north of Tropical Storm In-Fa on Monday. The second high pressure system will steer In-Fa more toward the west early next week. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm In-Fa could approach Okinawa in 60 hours. In-Fa could bring wind and rain to the southwestern Ryukyu Islands. In-Fa could eventually affect Taiwan and eastern China later next week.

Tropical Storm Choi-wan Moves Toward Taiwan

Tropical Storm Choi-wan moved toward Taiwan on Thursday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Choi-wan was located at latitude 20.0°N and longitude 118.9°E which put it about 185 miles (300 km) south-southwest of Taiwan. Choi-wan was moving toward the north-northeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Choi-wan turned toward the north-northeast on Thursday which put it on a track towards southern Taiwan. The distribution of thunderstorms around Choi-wan was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southwestern quadrant of Tropical Storm Choi-wan. Bands in the other quadrants of Choi-wan consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Storm Choi-wan was also asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) on the western side of Choi-wan. Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 65 miles (105 km) on the eastern side of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Choi-wan will move through an area that is mostly unfavorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. The center of Choi-wan will move over an area where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. However, an upper level ridge centered over southern China will produce moderate northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical storm. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and they are already responsible for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. The moderate vertical wind shear will likely prevent intensification of Tropical Storm Choi-wan.

Tropical Storm Choi-wan will move around the northwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Choi-wan toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Choi-wan will reach southern Taiwan in 12 hours. Choi-wan could drop locally heavy rain over parts of southern Taiwan. Flash floods could occur in some locations. Tropical Storm Choi-wan could approach the southern Ryuku Islands in 24 hours. Choi-wan could bring a period of gusty winds to southern Taiwan and the southern Ryukyu Islands.

Tropical Storm Choi-wan Drops Rain on Luzon

Tropical Storm Choi-wan dropped rain on parts of Luzon around Manila on Wednesday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Choi-wan was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 119.6°E which put it about 85 miles (135 km) west-northwest of Manila, Philippines. Choi-wan was moving toward the northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

The center of Tropical Storm Choi-wan passed just south of Manila before the tropical storm moved west of Luzon. Bands near the center of Choi-wan dropped rain on parts of Luzon near Manila. Other bands in the southern half of Tropical Storm Choi-wan dropped rain on Mindoro. Choi-wan was still producing a few winds that were blowing at tropical storm force, but Manila did not report any winds that were that strong.

Tropical Storm Choi-wan exhibited an organized circulation on Wednesday afternoon. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western, southern and eastern sides of the center of Choi-wan. Other bands of thunderstorms were in the southern half of the tropical storm. Bands in the northern half of Tropical Storm Choi-wan consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Choi-wan.

Tropical Storm Choi-wan will move through an area that is marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The center of Choi-wan will move over the South China Sea where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. However, an upper level ridge centered over southern China will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will limit the potential for intensification, but Tropical Storm Choi-wan could get a little stronger during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Choi-wan will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Choi-wan toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Choi-wan will move northwest of Luzon during the next 24 hours. Choi-wan will turn toward the northeast on Friday after it moves around the western end of the high pressure system. Tropical Storm Choi-wan could approach the southern end of Taiwan in 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Atsani Passes Just South of Taiwan

Tropical Storm Atsani passed just south of Taiwan early on Friday. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Atsani was located at latitude 21.5°N and longitude 120.7°E which put it about 30 miles (50 km) south of Taiwan. Atsani was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

The center of Tropical Storm Atsani passed just to the south of the southern tip of Taiwan early on Friday. Radar images from the Taiwan Central Weather Bureau showed the well organized structure of Tropical Storm Atsani.

There was a small, tight center of circulation. The center was surrounded by a partial eyewall and the strongest winds were occurring in eyewall. Multiple bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Storm Atsani. Bands in the northern half of Atsani were dropping heavy rain over the southern half of Taiwan. The heaviest rain was falling in parts of southeastern Taiwan where the wind was pushing air up the eastern slopes of mountains. Flash floods are possible in those areas. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Atsani.

Tropical Storm Atsani will be in an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 24 hours. Atsani will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will be in an area where the upper level winds are weaker and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Atsani could intensify during the next 24 hours and there is a chance it could strengthen into a typhoon. An upper level trough over eastern Asia will approach Atsani during the weekend. The trough will produce stronger southwesterly winds which will cause more vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Atsani will weaken when the wind shear increases. If the shear is strong enough, the upper level winds could blow the top half of Atsani northeast of the low level circulation.

Tropical Storm Atsani will move south of a ridge of high pressure over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Atsani toward the west during the next day or so. If the wind shear blows the top half of Tropical Storm Atsani northeast of the lower level circulation, then a surface high pressure system over eastern Asia could push the lower half of Atsani toward the southeast. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Atsani will pass southeast of Hong Kong and it could eventually move toward Vietnam.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, the remnants of former Typhoon Goni were dropping heavy rain over parts of Vietnam. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Goni was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 108.3°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) west of Quy Nhon, Vietnam. Goni was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb. Tropical Depression Goni is dropping heavy rain over ground that is already saturated and the rain will make ongoing floods worse.

Maysak Intensifies into a Typhoon East of Luzon

Former Tropical Storm Maysak intensified into a typhoon on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Maysak was located at latitude 17.2°N and longitude 128.7°E which put it about 335 miles (540 km) east of Luzon.  Maysak was moving toward the west-northwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

The circulation around Typhoon Maysak exhibited greater organization on Saturday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped partially around the center of circulation and an eye could be forming at the center of Maysak.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Maysak.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the core.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center.

Typhoon Maysak will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 to 48 hours.  Maysak will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Maysak will continue to strengthen and it could intensify rapidly when an eye and eyewall are fully formed.  Maysak could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane within 24 to 36 hours.

Typhoon Maysak will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Maysak toward the north during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Maysak will move toward the southern Ryukyu Islands.  Maysak could pass near Okinawa in about 48 hours.  Typhoon Maysak is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it passes near Okinawa.

Tropical Storm Maysak Forms East of Luzon

Tropical Storm Maysak formed east of Luzon on Friday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Maysak was located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 129.4°E which put it about 435 miles (700 km) east of Luzon.  Maysak was moving toward the west-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of a low pressure system east of Luzon on Friday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Maysak.  Thunderstorms were also forming in bands revolving around the center of Maysak.  Storm nears the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Maysak will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours.  Maysak will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Maysak will intensify quickly and it could strengthen into a typhoon within 24 hours.  Once an inner core with an eye and an eyewall is established Maysak could rapidly intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Storm Maysak will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Maysak toward the north-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Maysak could approach the Ryukyu Islands within 72 hours.  Maysak could be the equivalent of a major hurricane by that time.

Tropical Storm Bavi Forms East of Taiwan

Tropical Storm Bavi formed east of Taiwan on Friday night.  At 11:00 p.m. on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Bavi was located at latitude 23.9°N and longitude 122.8°E which put it about 85 miles (135 km) southeast of Taipei, Taiwan.  Bavi was moving toward the north-northeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system east of Taiwan strengthened on Friday night and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Bavi.  The circulation around Bavi was asymmetrical.  Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of the tropical storm.  Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the east of the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) to the east of the center of circulation.  The winds on the western side of Tropical Storm Bavi were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Bavi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Bavi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Bavi will intensify and it could strengthen into a typhoon by the end of the weekend.

Tropical Storm Bavi will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Bavi toward the north-northeast during the next few days.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Bavi will pass west of the Ryukyu Islands including Okinawa.  Bavi could approach South Korea in about four days.  The eastern side of Bavi will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Ryukyu Islands.

Tropical Storm Jangmi Forms South of Ryukyu Islands

Tropical Storm Jangmi formed south of the Ryukyu Islands on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Jangmi was located at latitude 22.4°N and longitude 126.3°E which put it about 375 miles (605 km) south-southwest of Okinawa.  Jangmi was moving toward the north at 21 m.p.h. (34 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A low pressure system east of Taiwan and south of the Ryukyu Islands strengthened on Saturday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Jangmi.  The distribution of  thunderstorms around Jangmi was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of the tropical storm.  Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (325 km) on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Jangmi.

Tropical Storm Jangmi will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Jangmi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge northeast of the Philippines.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical storm.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear which will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Jangmi could strengthen on Sunday despite the vertical wind shear.

Tropical Storm Jangmi will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Jangmi toward the north during the next 36 hours.  On its anticipated tack the center of Tropical Storm Jangmi will pass west of Okinawa in 12 to 18 hours.  Jangmi will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Okinawa.  Tropical Storm Jangmi could approach South Korea in 36 hours.