Category Archives: Tropical Cyclones

Information about tropical cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Ditwah Forms Near Sri Lanka

Tropical Cyclone Ditwah formed over the southwestern Bay of Bengal on Thursday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ditwah was located at latitude 7.8°N and longitude 81.6°E which put the center about 10 miles (15 km) northwest of Batticaloa, Sri Lanka.  Ditwah was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A low pressure system over the southwestern Bay of Bengal near Sri Lanka intensified on Thursday and the India Meteorological Department designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Ditwah.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Ditwah was near the east coast of Sri Lanka.  About half of Ditwah’s circulation was over Sri Lanka.  A band of thunderstorms was wrapped around the northern and western sides of the center of Tropical Cyclone Ditwah.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Ditwah’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Ditwah generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease slowly.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Ditwah was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) in the southern half of Ditwah’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Ditwah.

Tropical Cyclone Ditwah will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ditwah will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that is over Southeast Asia and the Bay of Bengal.  The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ditwah’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification.  The fact that almost half of Ditwah’s circulation is over Sri Lanka will also inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Ditwah could intensify during the next 24 hours even with moderate vertical wind shear, if the center of its circulation remains over water.

Tropical Cyclone Ditwah will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Bay of Bengal.  The high pressure system will steer Ditwah toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Ditwah will move along the coast of northeastern Sri Lanka.  Ditwah could approach the coast of India near Chennai within 72 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Ditwah will produce strong winds and heavy rain over Sri Lanka.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.

Koto Intensifies to a Typhoon Over South China Sea

Former Tropical Storm Koto intensified to a typhoon over the South China Sea on Wednesday.   At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Koto was located at latitude 13.2°N and longitude 114.5°E which put the center about 475 miles (765 km) east-southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam.  Koto was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Koto intensified to a typhoon on Wednesday.  Thunderstorms continued to develop around the center of Typhoon Koto.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Koto’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Koto generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds around Typhoon Koto was asymmetrical.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 30 miles from the center of Koto’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 205 miles (335 km) in the northern side of Koto’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the southern side of Typhoon Koto.

Typhoon Koto will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Koto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Koto’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  In addition, Typhoon Koto will move into a region of drier air that is flowing over the western part of the South China Sea.  Some of the drier air is likely to get pulled into the western side of Koto’s circulation.  More vertical wind shear and the effects of drier air will cause Typhoon Koto to start to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Koto will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Koto toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Koto will move closer to Vietnam.  A second high pressure system over China and Southeast Asia that is transporting the drier air over the western part of the South China Sea will impede the progress of Koto later this week.  Koto could meander over the South China Sea for several days at the end of the week.

Tropical Cyclone Senyar Brings Wind and Rain to Northern Sumatra

Tropical Cyclone Senyar brought wind and rain to northern Sumatra on Wednesday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Senyar was located at latitude 3.8°N and longitude 98.3°E which put the center about 30 miles (50 km) northwest of Medan, Indonesia.  Senyar was moving toward the south-southeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).   The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Senyar was located at latitude 3.8°N which once again proves that tropical cyclones can occur near the Equator.

Tropical Cyclone Senyar continued to be in an environment characterized by strong vertical wind shear.  An upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean was causing strong easterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Senyar’s circulation.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  The strong winds were causing the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Senyar to be asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of Senyar’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Senyar consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

he circulation around Tropical Cyclone Senyar was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Senyar’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Senyar will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Senyar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  However, the upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear will seriously inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be enough to prevent some intensification.  In addition, the center of Senyar’s circulation will be near the coast of northeastern Sumatra.  Tropical Cyclone Senyar could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Senyar will move through along trough of low pressure that is near the Equator. The trough of low pressure will steer Senyar toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Senyar will move along the northeastern coast of Sumatra during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Senyar will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to Aceh province in northern Sumatra.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  There are already reports of flooding and casualties in northern Sumatra.

Tropical Cyclone 04B Forms Over Malacca Strait

Tropical Cyclone 04B formed over the Malacca Strait on Tuesday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 04B was located at latitude 4.8°N and longitude 98.6°E which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) east-northeast of Langsa, Indonesia.  Tropical Cyclone 04B was moving toward the west-northwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A low pressure system over the Malacca Strait strengthened on Tuesday and the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center designated the system as Tropical Cyclone 04B.  The India Meteorological Department was classifying Tropical Cyclone 04B as a Depression.  It could be the first Tropical Cyclone observed to form over the Malacca Strait in the modern era.

Tropical Cyclone 04B formed in an environment characterized by strong vertical wind shear.  An upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean was causing strong easterly winds that were blowing toward the top of the tropical cyclone.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  The strong winds were causing the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone 04B to be asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of the tropical cyclone.  Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone 04B consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone 04B was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone 04B will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Tropical Cyclone 04B will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  However, the upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear will seriously inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be enough to prevent some  intensification.  Tropical Cyclone 04B could intensity a little during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 04B will move around the southwestern end of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean and Southeast Asia.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone 04B will make landfall in northern Sumatra near Idi in 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 04B will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Aceh province in northern Sumatra.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Koto Develops Over Sulu Sea

Tropical Storm Koto developed over the northern Sulu Sea on Tuesday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Koto was located at latitude 11.6°N and longitude 119.5°E which put the center about 55 miles (90 km) northwest of Coron, Philippines.  Koto was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A low pressure system over the northern Sulu Sea strengthened on Tuesday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Koto.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Koto exhibited more organization on Tuesday.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of Koto’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Koto.  Storms near the center of Koto generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Storm Koto was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) in the northern side of Koto’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the southern side of Tropical Storm Koto.

Tropical Storm Koto will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Koto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Koto will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Koto will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Koto toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Koto will move over northern Palawan.  Koto will move over the South China Sea on Wednesday.

Tropical Cyclone Palawan will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to northern Palawan.  Koto will also bring strong winds and heavy rain to Busuanga Island, Culion Island, Linapacan Island and the Calamian Group of islands.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flooding in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Fina Hits Kimberley Coast

Tropical Cyclone Fina hit the northeast Kimberley coast of Australia on Monday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina was located at latitude 14.3°S and longitude 127.9°E which put the center about 80 miles (130 km) east of Kalumburu, Australia.  Fina was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 946 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fina hit the northeast Kimberley coast of Australia near the Mouth of the Berkeley River on Monday.  Fina was the equivalent of a major hurricane at the time of landfall.  Tropical Cyclone Fina was bringing strong destructive winds and heavy rain to the region near the Mouth of the Berkeley River.  Fina was also causing a strong storm surge in the small area near the center of its circulation.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fina was very small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Fina’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Fina was 23.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 6.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.6.  Tropical Cyclone Fina was similar in intensity to Hurricane Dennis when Dennis hit Northwest Florida in 2005.  Fina was not as large as Dennis was.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will move around the western end of a high pressure system over northern Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Fina toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fina will move inland over the Kimberley Plateau.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will weaken quickly because of its small size as it moves over the Kimberley Plateau.  Fina will continue to produce strong winds and to drop locally heavy rain as it moves inland.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

 

Tropical Cyclone Fina Moves Over Timor Sea

Tropical Cyclone Fina was moving over the Timor Sea on Sunday after it caused wind damage and electricity outages in Darwin.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina was located at latitude 13.7°S and longitude 128.8°E which put the center about 155 miles (250 km) west-southwest of Darwin, Australia.  Fina was moving toward the southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Wadeye, Australia to the Daly River Mouth.  A Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from the border between the Northern Territory and Western Australia to Kalumburu.

Tropical Cyclone Fina was still a well organized tropical cyclone on Sunday.  A small circular eye was visible at the center of Fina’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Fina.  Storms near the core of Fina generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fina was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Fina’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Fina was 19.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 7.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 26.6.  Tropical Cyclone Fina was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fina will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over northern Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Fina’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  However, the circulation around the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Fina will begin to pull drier air from northwestern Australia into its circulation.  The drier air will cause thunderstorms in the eastern side of Fina’s circulation to start to weaken.  The effects of the drier air will cause Tropical Cyclone Fina to start to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will move around the western end of a high pressure system over northern Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Fina toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina will reach the coast of Western Australia near of the King George River Mouth in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to the coast of the Western Australia northeast of Kalumburu.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Fina could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along parts of the coast of the Western Australia.

Flood Watches are in effect for the North West Coastal Rivers and the Bonaparte Coastal Rivers.

Tropical Cyclone Fina Brings Wind and Rain to Darwin

Tropical Cyclone Fina brought wind and rain to Darwin, Australia on Saturday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina was located at latitude 12.2°S and longitude 130.4°E which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) northwest of Darwin, Australia.  Fina was moving toward the west-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

A Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Hotham to Wadeye, Australia.  The Warning includes Darwin.  A Warning is also in effect for the western and central Tiwi Islands.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Wadeye to Troughton Island, Australia.  The Watch includes Kalumburu.

Tropical Cyclone Fina brought wind and rain to the area around Darwin, Australia on Saturday.  The core of Fina’s circulation, where the strongest winds were, was passing to the northwest of Darwin.  A weather station at the Darwin Airport reported a sustained wind speed of 37 m.p.h. (57 km/h) and a wind gust to 53 m.p.h. (85 km/h).  The weather station also measure 5.89 inches (149.6 mm) of rain.

Tropical Cyclone Fina intensified to the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it moved over the Timor Sea.  A very small eye was present at the center of Fina’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Fina.  Storms near the core of Fina generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fina was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Fina’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Fina was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 7.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 24.0.  Tropical Cyclone Fina was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Idalia when Idalia hit Florida in 2023.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification while it moves over the Timor Sea during the next 24 hours.  Fina will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.   It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over northern Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Fina’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Fina could intensify during the next 24 hours.  Fina could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will move around the western end of a high pressure system over northern Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Fina toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.   On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina will move away from Darwin during the next 24 hours.   Fina will approach the coast of Western Australia northeast of Kalumburu in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to the coast of the Northern Territory of Australia southwest of Darwin.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Fina could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along parts of the coast of the Northern Territory.

Flood Watches are in effect for the North West Coastal Rivers and the Bonaparte Coastal Rivers.

Tropical Cyclone Fina Crosses Cobourg Peninsula

Tropical Cyclone Fina moved across the Cobourg Peninsula in northern Australia on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina was located at latitude 11.8°S and longitude 131.6°E which put the center about 80 miles (130 km) northeast of Darwin, Australia.   Fina was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).   The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

A Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Daly River Mouth to Cape Don, Australia.  The Warning includes Darwin.  A Warning is also in effect for the Tiwi Islands.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Wadeye to Daly River Mouth.

Tropical Cyclone Fina intensified a little after it crossed the Cobourg Peninsula and moved over the Van Dieman Gulf.  A small circular eye was at the center of Fina’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Fina.  Storms near the core of Fina generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fina was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Fina’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification while it moves over the Van Dieman Gulf during the next few hours. Fina will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over northern Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Fina’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Fina could intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will move around the western end of a high pressure system over northern Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Fina toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.   On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina will pass near Darwin in 12 hours.   Fina will move over the Timor Sea on Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the coast of the Northern Territory of Australia.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Fina could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along parts of the coast of the Northern Territory.

Flood Watches are in effect for the North West Coastal Rivers.

Tropical Cyclone Fina Moves Toward Northern Australia

Tropical Cyclone Fina started to move toward the coast of northern Australia on Thursday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina was located at latitude 10.4°S and longitude 132.4°E which put the center about 185 miles (300 km) northeast of Darwin, Australia and about 70 miles (110 km) north of Minjilang, Australia.  Fina was moving toward the west-southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

A Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Dundee Beach to Warruwi, Australia.  The Warning includes Darwin, Minjilang and the Cobourg Peninsula.  A Warning is also in effect for the Tiwi Islands.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Wadeye to Daly River Mouth.

Tropical Cyclone Fina strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon after it started to move toward the coast of northern Australia on Thursday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped most of the way around the center to Fina’s circulation.  A small circular eye appeared to be forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Fina’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Fina generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fina was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Fina’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fina will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over northern Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Fina’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Fina could continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will move around the western end of a high pressure system over northern Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Fina toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina will pass near the northwestern end of the Cobourg Peninsula in 12 hours.  The center of Fina could be near the eastern end of Melville Island in 24 hours.  Fina could reach Darwin in less than 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the coast of the Northern Territory of Australia.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Fina could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along parts of the coast of the Northern Territory.

Flood Watches are in effect for the North West Coastal Rivers.